Marlon Byrd is having a World Class season. He’s currently hitting .280/.324/.508 with 17 HRs and 60 RBI on the year. He’s also due a pittance of a salary and holds no commitment beyond 2013. All of these things SHOULD make Byrd a highly sought after player at the trade deadline. Except for the fact that the Mets don’t want to trade him.
Logic dictates that Byrd has more value to the 2013 Mets than anyone that they would get back in a deal. A random Met fan, Tim, writes:
It would deflate the morale on the team, he’s a very positive influence in the clubhouse, and has been a big help to the younger outfielders. Call me crazy, but if this team could just reel off a couple of wins in a row, who knows what could happen? Met fans know all too well about late season collapses, and the optimist in me wants to believe that anything is possible! Ya Gotta Believe!!!!!
Yet an argument remains, do the 2013 Mets matter? The Mets have nearly no shot at making the playoffs in 2013 and less of a chance to win the World Series. So, shouldn’t the Mets and Sandy Alderson be looking at 2014 and beyond? The short answer is, Yes. The long answer is, Yes… but.
The major obstacle stopping Alderson from helping the Mets of tomorrow is that without Byrd’s bat, the Mets of today might become un-watchable. This is a problem because the Mets don’t want to lose any more fans to the apathy of a losing ball-club and they can’t afford to lose the additional revenue those fans represent. Now… all this changes if teams are willing to “Overpay” for Byrd.
What is overpaying?:
There are three teams that have been listed in connection to Byrd. That means there are several potential trades to evaluate. Here is a list of what I think would be “realistic overpayment” and what would be “realistic value” for the Mets to expect.
Texas Rangers:
Overpaying – Luis Sardinas: He’s blocked by Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar and the Rangers KNOW they have a golden trade chip. He’s a shortstop who can field and hit, they just don’t need him. Not needing Sardinas gets his name onto the list, but Byrd seems like a pittance for a guy who the Rangers might someday look to trade for a #1 or #2 pitcher.
Value – Nick Williams: Now, I think Williams is a very good prospect, but I also know that he’s only in Full Season A right now. He’s a future corner outfielder who has a big-time contact bat with enough pop to play the corner. The Rangers could have a big-time prospect on their hands but with him so far away (2-3 years), the Mets could look at Williams in a deal for Byrd.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
Overpaying – Gregory Polanco: Polanco is in AA and would come to the Mets and immediately jump to the #1 OF prospect spot ahead of Cesar Puello. Polanco is a dreaded “5-Tool-Player”. Why dreaded? Do Preston Wilson, Alex Escobar and Lastings Milledge ring any bells? The point is that Polanco could fight for a starting outfield spot in 2014 and become a starting player for the Mets moving into the future… So why would the Pirates make the trade? Good question.
Value – Willy Garcia: Unlike Polanco, Garcia is not “Ready to go”. He’s down in A+ and would need a year in AA/AAA to prove his worth before the Mets would see him play. The thing with Garcia is that he has corner outfield power and can probably be a right fielder in the majors, where Polanco will rely more on his legs for value.
Baltimore Orioles:
Overpaying – Dylan Bundy: The Orioles have said they are open to trading Bundy but you have to imagine the Mets would need to sweeten the deal from a Byrd rental by more than a little bit. That being said, Bundy is available and would give the Mets some flexing power in their offseason push for a player in the caliber of Giancarlo Stanton. Ultimately… NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
Value – ???: Part of the reason I have to reach for the Orioles overpay player is that I don’t see great matches amongst their prospects. I cannot find a prospect the Mets would find obvious benefit in acquiring should the Orioles not lose their sanity and trade Bundy.
Looking at fan reactions, I’m not sure this is something the Mets should do anyway. Here are some more random fan reactions:
Keith – Yes, I’d trade Byrd. I don’t think he’s worth a Top 100 prospect to anyone, but I’d take a good back of the rotation guy.
Paul – No, but I’d trade Parnell…
Glen – Trade Byrd tomorrow then bring up Flores and d’Arnaud…
Julio – I would not trade him unless we got a surefire major leaguer in return.
Rocco – Yes. We’re not winning it all this year and he is 35 years old… I take someone that can help us in 2014 or 2015.
Mary – NO!
Frank – No way!!!!!!
Karl – Don’t touch Byrd with a 10 foot pole!
Robin – Do not do it.
What do you say?
1) Would you trade Byrd?
2) What is a name you would look for in return?
Trade him only if it makes sense. Not just for the sake of trading him to make up for Hairston. The Mets need an outfielder who can be a productive lead off hitter and cover center field.
The Mets need one, but Byrd will likely not be that beyond 2013.
I would like to keep Byrd for August. As crazy as it seems, the Mets are only 8 out in the loss column and they play everyone,including Cincy, that are ahead of them in the wildcard race. 6 with Philly, 6 with the Nats, 3 with Colorado, and 3 with Arizona. Do not think it impossible. One hot month! Think Tampa Bay and the Dodgers.
It is possible. I would not place a bet no matter what odds Vegas gave me.
Sign him to a one year, incentive laden deal, $5MM base right now with a team option for 2015.
Keep Marlon Byrd. Players rebound all the time in their later years, and a regression to the mean for Byrd is still 15-18 HR and a 770 OPS. You don’t have that player in your funnel and you’ll pay a ton for that player in the offseason.
I don’t buy that Byrd is going to be this player next season. I think we would all bemoan such a deal by mid-2014.
From age 30 until now, his OPS+ is 106. If he regresses to league average or slightly below, do you honestly think Mets fans are going to bemoan giving Marlon Byrd $5.7MM for 2013 and 2014? I doubt it.
He can field. He can still motor. His 162 game average HR number is 17. If you could show me one OFer in our minor league system that you think could hit 17 HR next year, I’m all about playing that guy.
And for the record, I’d pay Byrd $5MM to help Cesar Puello learn the major leagues in a NY second.
*Shrugs*
Anywho… Rangers are apparently open to discussing Elvis Andrus. Thoughts?
Hells yeah.
Didja see where JV’s antics with the HR trot eventually wound up getting himself and his manager thrown out of the game? When will that guy learn? Just cut him. Cut him lose now.
Back to Elvis … what else besides Byrd would it take to get him?
I would say they would want Byrd + Q or Tejada (in case) + someone like Montero or Flores. Flores would be too much in my mind.
Mmmm. Interesting trade. Andrus is being paid fairly, even a little overpaid, based on $5MM/WAR and his production up to this point. He’s young, and he’s under control for a forever. I guess that’s good and bad.
Giving up Byrd, Q and Montero is OK, I guess. You have a shot at resigning Byrd, who really cares about Q (or Tejada) when you are getting a good SS. So it’s really a #3 or #4 pitcher for a starting SS.
In. But not for Flores.
Jerry,
Sit down…
We just agreed on something.
No back to the important stuff:
THE WORLD IS FLAT!
Cardinals as an end point … I can only assume its Shane Robinson they’d move for Andrus. That dog don’t hunt.
Byrd at the overpayment price would be acceptable. Otherwise , I ‘m in agreement with JG.
Parnell is another player I would trade for a blue chip prospect.
With Murphy, Flores, Young, Turner, Satin and JV as secondbaseman there is a surplus that should be turned over to fill some holes. Duda or Davis is another surplus area.
So far, nobody seems to meet Sandy’s price but Sandy does not seem to be shopping either. I find that disappointing for a sub .500 team in 4th place.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/latest-on-alex-rios-1.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
Rios to Pirates will make Rangers look harder at Byrd.
I know i shouldn’t bring this up and it probably would never happen, but even though he’s been a great story, i would have released him in April and would still release him now because he’s a cheater and doesn’t deserve to play the game. It’s a shame to me that Byrd will probably profit from his cheating.
Well… there has been plenty of cheating before him and will be plenty to come after. I don’t care what players do outside of the game.
To Michael. Mets can’t even win at home. They have no offense at first base, catcher, left field, short stop. Limited offense at second base and you think they can win 4 or 5 games in a row? They can’t score runs for Harvey and wait until Byrd and Wright run out of gas by the end of August. If and when Harvey and Wheeler reach their inning limits they’re going to be shut down regardless of where the Mets are in the standings.
True fans will be pissed if we don’t make a deal and instead stand pat instead of playing for 2014 which is the earliest anything special is going to occur.
The easy answer is: yes, if it makes sense, right? Can’t keep holding on to player so that the team can be slightly better NOW if you can improve for the future.
Also, and I know that the Mets have had trouble with closers recently, but the Brewers got back a B prospect for K-Rod. I wonder what teams are offering for Parnell? Of course I’d do it….if it makes sense.
How about Byrd and Parnell to the Orioles for Bundy? Insert Aardsma into the closer role, and next season, audition Edgin and Familia?
One thing I learned this week is that we dont seem to be imagining this, clubs have clearly increased the perceived value of prospects. No one was willing to part with talent that has not played in the show to get someone good. Unloading prospects for proven talent seems quite unfashionable these days, which seems to correlate with teams demanding very high prospect returns to trade for. THis is an interesting trend to these eyes.
Also, the Mets have stripped the tradeable faces off the team, with pretty much no one left to get prospects for. We have his the next cross roads in shaping this team. I hope the winter meetings this year ushers in the next part of the long term strategy to win.