There’s a lot to like about Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins. We have Zack Wheeler here now and Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard on the way because of Alderson’s ability to cash in on an asset. Now that Jordany Valdespin is no longer on the club, the Mets seem to be filled with players who like each other and give it everything they have, a testament to Collins’ leadership.
But there are plenty of things to be troubled with when it comes to both men.
In the eighth inning of Monday night’s game against the Dodgers, the Mets trailed 4-2. The Dodgers had lefty Paco Rodriguez on the mound and Marlon Byrd led off the inning with a single. Up next was Ike Davis. Much has been made about how Davis has played better since his trip to the minors. This is true. However, one of the reasons he’s played better is that Collins has shielded him from facing southpaws. This is Davis’ line against lefties this year:
.150/.203/.217
And it’s not like this is an isolated thing. Last year he had a .560 OPS against LHP and the year before it was .493. In his last 269 ABs against a southpaw, Davis is batting .174 with a 28.6 K%. You may find this hard to believe but the lefty Rodriguez got Davis to strike out swinging for the first out of the inning.
One out later, John Buck delivered a single to put two runners on with two outs and lefty Omar Quintanilla coming to the plate. One other pertinent piece of information is important to know – the Dodgers had closer Kenley Jansen warmed up and ready to come into the game for a four-out save.
Collins sends Justin Turner out to pinch-hit for Quintanilla. As a PH this year, Turner had a .148/.172/.185 mark in 29 PA. Pinch-hitting is a tough job and Turner is not doing a particularly good job of it this season. So, Collins removed Quintanilla because he had a .500 OPS versus lefties so he could get Turner and his .357 OPS as a pinch-hitter into the game.
And to make it worse, it got Jansen into the game. It’s bad enough that Turner was hitless against Jansen in three PA but Jansen has been lights out. In his last 34 games, the Dodgers closer had limited hitters to a .425 OPS despite opposing batters having a very respectable .288 BABIP against him. He accomplished this thanks to racking up 53 Ks in 36 IP.
You may find this hard to believe but Turner struck out.
Collins should have brought in Josh Satin to pinch-hit for Davis. It would have been the better decision because Jansen was not ready to come into the game and while Davis is terrible against LHP, Satin has a 1.016 OPS against southpaws. And while Satin has not been lights out as a PH, his .598 overall OPS in that role is still better than Davis’ .420 mark against southpaws.
No move is ever guaranteed to work – all you can do is put the team in the best position to win. Collins had two decisions to make in the inning and both choices he made crapped out. Hey, it happens. This is not specifically about results – it’s about the thought that went into the individual decisions. My issue is that in both of these cases, Collins made sub-optimal choices.
We have to conclude one of two things. Either, Collins was not aware of the pertinent numbers or he decided to go against the numbers and go with his instincts. If he’s not aware of the pertinent numbers – I guess I don’t know what to say. And if he was going by his gut, then he needs to stop doing that immediately.
Meanwhile, Alderson came to the Mets with the reputation of being the smartest, toughest guy in the room. How a smart guy can watch the tactical decisions of Collins day after day, going on three years now, and not be revolted is just beyond me. It’s one thing when the team was not expected to do anything but now we all have legitimate hopes for contending in 2014.
If Alderson truly is smart and tough, he’ll make what apparently is a difficult decision and not offer Collins a contract for next year. Oh, and speaking of Collins and contracts – does anyone know how much the Mets have paid him to be their manager? There’s no trouble with finding incentive clauses for a middle reliever but trying to identify what the Wilpons have paid Collins is a state secret.
Another thing that bothers me about Alderson and Collins is their undying love for Davis. Here’s what the GM said about him when Davis was sent to the minors because he was, you know, terrible:
“Ike is the kind of player we would like to rely on for the future.”
Call me crazy but when assembling the list of guys to rely on in the future it seems best not to count on guys that are horrible, absolutely horrible, against southpaws. Since 2011, there are 85 lefty hitters who have amassed at least 200 PA against LHP. Davis has the second-worst OPS mark of the group, checking in with a .519 mark.
Lucas Duda has a .659 OPS against southpaws in the same span.
Alderson, and to a lesser extent Collins, should examine why their lefty batters struggle so much against LHP. Since Collins came on board in 2011, here’s how the club’s lefties with at least 75 PA against LHP in a season have fared:
| Player | Year | PA | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Murphy | 2011 | 91 | .755 |
| Daniel Murphy | 2012 | 196 | .680 |
| Lucas Duda | 2012 | 148 | .662 |
| Lucas Duda | 2013 | 79 | .602 |
| Daniel Murphy | 2013 | 164 | .597 |
| Josh Thole | 2012 | 81 | .562 |
| Ike Davis | 2012 | 178 | .560 |
We can see from the chart that Murphy has gotten worse against lefties as has Duda. Not visible in the chart but Davis has gotten worse, too, as his OPS against southpaws now sits at .420 in 64 PA.
Three players is not a huge sample and we’re not dealing with anything above 178 PA so this might be nothing more than poor luck. But if you were in charge of things, wouldn’t you at least investigate to see if there was anything that could be done differently? And if you were the manager, wouldn’t you look to be more aggressive with your platoons with the *worst* lefty to receive significant playing time?
In basketball, Hakeem Olujawon has made a second career running a camp for big men in which he teaches them improved footwork and new post moves. Perhaps Keith Hernandez could do a similar thing for the Mets. He could run an offseason camp where he teaches lefty batters how to hang in versus southpaws. Hernandez had a career .791 OPS versus LHP.
If Hernandez were to struggle in this new role, he could always look to Tampa Bay and specifically Rays hitting coach Derek Shelton for advice. The Rays have three lefties this year with at least 75 PA against southpaws and all three have an OPS over .750 against LHP. And before you think it’s nothing more than the Rays having better players, be aware that the players are James Loney, Kelly Johnson and Luke Scott.
Loney and Johnson are particularly interesting, since both are in their first season with the Rays. Since 2010, here are Loney’s OPS marks against southpaws: .575, .561, .508 and .820 this year. Johnson fared very well against lefties earlier in his career but the last two seasons he had OPS marks of .626 and .607 before putting up his .763 mark this season.
The Rays have made a cottage industry of getting good performances out of underachieving lefty-hitting first basemen. They were the ones who got a 1.037 OPS out of Carlos Pena, they were the ones that got a 127 OPS+ season out of Casey Kotchman and they are the ones now getting 180 more OPS points out of Loney than a season ago.
It almost seems inevitable that either Davis or Duda will end up on the Rays next year and turn in a season better than anything they did with the Mets.
Meanwhile, the Mets need to see why their lefty hitters are getting worse against lefty pitchers. It may just be a sample size issue but everyone from Alderson to Collins to Dave Hudgens should be working overtime to make sure it isn’t something more significant.
I have noticed that the Mets lefties seem to struggle more than those of other teams.Not just not getting hits but looking awful,clueless.Whether it’s Hudges or not I don’t know.Fire Terry Collins
Hey Brian! Keith Hernandez? Hmm? I have been suggesting since spring training in quite a few blogs here on why the team doesn’t ask Keith to give Ike some suggestions and ideas on how to approach hitting against lefties. I see you’ve come around!
Interesting take, Brian. I really do not want Collins in the dugout next year. Not sure who I want IN the dugout, however…
That’s a great point you raise, Charlie. It’s easy to dismiss Collins from our thoughts for next year, but who’s the next guy? In house you have Geren, Teufel and Backman. Do you go outside? I’m sure there are baseball bodies available. What does Alderson want in a manager? Someone creative? A statistic factoid? A “man’s man” leader? A teacher? A psychologist? A toady who will meekly follow the lead of his higher-ups?
There are those who make a strong case that the manager does not make much difference. I think that may be true of some managers, but the wrong manager can be disastrous.
This sounds too much like the reason for keeping Davis around when it was painfully obvious he was a big part of the problem.
Who will we call up? This ignored the fact that the biggest gain of the transaction was coming from the removal part of the equation.
Get rid of TC now and install Teufel as the interim manager. If he proves capable of motivating players and not getting out-managed on a regular basis — make him he full-time manager. If not, you have a whole offseason to conduct a search for the ultimate replacement.
Teflon Terry is a conservative manager who the majority of the time plays the lefty/righty card without thought and most of the media accept it as following the book.(but thankfully this site sees it for what it is). TC has a tendency to over manage and usually gets out managed in the process. This has been documented on this site consistently. He is not innovative or creative.
Alderson is a conservative GM, in finances and risks. For example, he would not take the risk by signing an under market Bourne. The Mets plod along, seemingly afraid to rock the boat. So far the Alderson regime could be described as stagnant.
Davis can’t hit lefties and we plod along with him to the point that the manager wants to give him a start vs a lefty. It is looking similar to Jason Bay II. The GM is referring to a platoon player as the future. I find this disappointing but it unfortunately appears that Ike will be at 1B and TC in the dugout in 2014. As for Duda, he became a scapegoat.
Nice article Brian.
Awesome article … thanks for schooling me, and cementing my feelings about Ike. Go have a big year in Tampa 🙁
well Davey Johnson will be available if we don’t go with Backman or Teufel. But seriously though, Collins is 100% gone. No way, he comes back in 2014. They are just biding their time. By the way, we are on the cusp of dropping out of the top 15 worst records which means (I believe) some draft penalties next year, no?
Sorry…hit the post before completing my thought. If we finish out of the top 15 worst records AND sign a Top of the FA, then we stand to get hit with 2014 drafting penalties. No?
Top 10 worst records have their first-round pick protected if they sign a free agent who requires compensation.
I think Collin’s game managing will not play a factor in his re-signing. I think it should, because unlike the past 2 seasons, Collins has really made some puzzling decisions during games. I think he will back next year, because I think the front office is judging him through a wider scope. I’m torn, but I def agree Collin’s is having a bad season.
While TC was hitting Turner against Jansen with two outs, and two on, I was yelling Andrew Brown. He has power and if he makes an out, double switch and have Turner lead off the next inning. Certainly prefer Turner as the lead off hitter and Brown as the big bopper. Speaking of Brown, when do you think he’ll play again, much less start?
He’s the last man on the bench so the next time the Mets play extra innings would be a good guess. Although with Flores hurting, he’s moving up the depth chart…
I just dont see Collins coming back. They could lose Backman if they procrastinate. He says he wants a managerial job (not TC’s job) so it sounds like he is totally willing to move out of the organization. Oh and right now the Mets stand with the 14th “worst” record.
Good bye Wally. If you’re that desperate to manage the Mets then how can you think you can put a gun to their head and force the issue. I don’t think SA would appreciate that. So I would like to think that Met management has an idea of who will be running the team in 2014(not TC). I do not think it will be a high profile manager who would complain to the media about lack of financial support from ownership. Bssides I think Fred would prefer to pocket the money himself. So lets all hope that the team is not able to refinance their substantial debt and the Wilpons are forced to sell. Adios! Pickapiedra!