Looking at the Mets’ projected record

Throughout the dog days of summer the Mets have hit their stride, playing some decent baseball, posting a record of 22-19 since the beginning of July. The production has not only come from a cast of unlikely heroes — such as Marlon Byrd, Jenrry Mejia, and Josh Satin — but also struggling pieces showing signs of life such as Ike Davis and Juan Lagares. Matt Harvey has been one of the top five pitchers in the league, and the rest of the rotation has been solid. These are just a few reasons why the Mets have been playing well.

The Mets entered this weekend with a 55-64 record, and despite a tough series against the Dodgers, they have had chances to win many of the games they have played. A playoff berth is certainly out of the question, given that coolstandings.com gives them a 0.3% chance of snatching a wild card and less than 0.1% of a chance of a winning the division. The Mets community could sit around and hope for some miracle run at the playoffs that likely will never happen, or it could try and look forward to a different goal. The Mets now have a few rivals that are struggling, and they do have a chance to finish ahead of some of them.

One of my favorite tools on FanGraphs is the “Rest of Season” projections under the standings tab. Dave Cameron elaborates on how the projections are calculated:

“ We’ve taken the two projection systems that we have daily updated forecasts from — ZIPS and Steamer — and combined them with playing time projections that are based on daily updated depth chart information for each team. This gives us the best of both worlds: high quality performance forecasts based on multiple years of data, but also playing time projections that account for a player’s current health and position on the roster.”

In the table below I have entered the Fangraphs’ projected “Rest of Season” record, projected “Full Season” record, and current record for the Mets, Nationals, Phillies, and — just for kicks — the Yankees.

The most interesting thing about these projections is how they forecast the Mets and Phillies. They project the Mets to finish one game better than the Phillies. However, it is likely that the Mets will finish significantly better than the Phillies. Both Steamer and ZiPs tend to be pessimistic projections, and they don’t really give a lot of credit to the Mets. The Phillies seem to be on the rocks as they just fired their manager, Charlie Manuel, after a 4-19 skid. It seems as though Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. is realizing it’s time to rebuild. It’s the perfect time for the Mets to capitalize on a struggling Phillies team, and it’s plausible that they finish more than one game ahead of the Phillies.

Overtaking the Nationals is a loftier task. The Nationals currently have a six-game lead over the Mets, and key parts of the Nationals’ squad, such as Dan Haren, are starting to show signs of life. While a six-game leads have been blown with even less time left in the season — the 2007 Mets say hello — the Nationals have a lot of players underperforming who could start to perform. If those players start to come alive, it’s possible not only that the Mets run away with second place in the division, but also that they may even have the ability to try to capture one of those wild card spots.

After the Yankees had a terrible road trip about a week ago, I thought there was a possibility that the Mets could actually finish with a better record than the Yankees. However, this week Alfonso Soriano has put the team on his back, and the Yankees are playing pretty well — making my prediction look rather foolish. The projected standings indicate that the competition with the Phillies is competitive, but the Mets should be able to finish with the better record. Catching the Nationals looks to be more of an achievable goal. As for catching the Yankees, Mets fans might as well hope for that unlikely outcome.