After Monday night’s game, my thoughts drifted to the 1977 Pirates. If you just went to the Baseball-Reference page for that team, you might think that they overachieved. They had a Pythagorean Record of 88-74 but their actual record was 95-66. Yet my thoughts about this squad are how they did not score as many runs as they should have given the talent on hand.
This is the Pittsburgh Lumber Company, filled with names that roll off the tongue – Parker, Oliver, Robinson, Garner, Stennett, and of course Stargell. Even the catcher tandem of Dyer and Ott was productive. One little remembered fact about this squad was that the starting pitchers could hit, too. Their four primary starters all placed in the top 20 among pitchers in OPS, including Candelaria (5th) and Kison (2nd).
Yet, this team was barely over league average in runs scored, which seems crazy.
One of the biggest reasons for this was the team’s batting order. While we understand that batting orders do not matter as much as we once thought, that comes with the caveat that you do not actively try to put your worst lineup together. And Chuck Tanner failed in this regard, as he batted his two regulars with the worst OBP in the leadoff spot 80% of the time.
He could have used Stennett and his .376 OBP but instead chose Frank Taveras (.306) and Omar Moreno (.295) most often. The Pirates’ leadoff hitters in 1977 combined for a .314 OBP, which ranked 11th in the 12-team National League. The remarkable thing was that the rest of the lineup was so good that Pittsburgh still finished second in the league in runs from the leadoff spot. Still, one can’t help but wonder how many runs the Pirates left on the table here.
And that leads us to the 2013 Mets and Monday night. The Phillies started a lefty so Terry Collins removed his switch-hitting leadoff hitter – disregard for the moment that Eric Young hits better from the right side – and installed Juan Lagares into the role for his sixth start batting first in the order.
Lagares brings stuff to the table. Unfortunately, one of the things he does not bring is a high on-base percentage, which should be job number one for your leadoff hitter. Much like Moreno 36 years ago, Lagares has a sub-.300 OBP and was likely the worst choice out there (minus the pitcher) for Collins to install as the club’s first hitter.
The Mets lost the game, 2-1, bringing their record when Lagares is batting first to 1-5. So, batting Lagares first is a terrible idea in both theory and reality. Still, one cannot shake the feeling that we will see Lagares leading off a half dozen more times this season. If he does that, and maintains his current level of production, he would be one of the worst leadoff hitters in club history to play double digit games. Unfortunately, he would be kept company by former 2013 teammates Ruben Tejada, Collin Cowgill and Jordany Valdespin. Collins sure can pick his leadoff guys.
For the season as a leadoff hitter, Lagares has a .233 OBP. But he is 2-for-2 in stolen base attempts, giving another Moreno-like comparison. It would be nice if Collins would trade speed for OBP and on those rare days where he starts Josh Satin – put those bushy eyebrows and his .405 OBP in the leadoff spot. While it’s against conventional wisdom to bat a corner infielder first, it’s a much better idea than putting a speedy outfielder who struggles to get on base in the role.
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It’s hard to determine the “best” and “worst” leadoff hitters in club history. My nomination for best would be 2011 Jose Reyes before his first injury. In his first 80 games, Reyes had a .354/.398/.529 line with 65 runs scored. He was successful on 30 of his 36 stolen base attempts (83%) and was just an absolute joy to watch.
Meanwhile, my nomination for worst would be 2002 Joe McEwing. In nine games from the leadoff spot, McEwing had a .056/.056/.222 line and the only run he scored came on a solo homer, which doubled as his only hit. Ron Gardenhire gets a dishonorable mention, as in 1984 he posted a .276 OPS in 10 games, although he did score three runs.
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I mutter(perhaps expletives) every time he bats Lagares first.Let’s face it,the guy is clueless.
Lenny Dykstra was an excellent lead off man in 1986 ,still pretty good in 1987.He was traded away and became the leadoff man he should have always been in Philly.(albeit he couldn’t stay healthy)The whole batting order thing is interesting to me because so many managers seem clueless,especially about the top of the order.Speed is great,but if your speed guy can’t get on base,don’t bat him leadoff!
On the flip side, the powerful Mets offense had 5 total hits, of which Lagares had one. This comprises 20% of the total hits for the night. In context, he looked pretty good against a tough Lee. Satin went 0-4. There’s some real context to put in place next to the numbers.
They say a broken clock is right twice a day and perhaps the baseball equivalent of that would be in one game a guy with a sub-.300 OBP can get one of the club’s five hits.
Well, twice a day beats no times a day!!! However, as much as I like Lagares, I dont see him as batting lead-off. Thats a TC mistake, not a mistake of JL.