Will Mets’ farm system success translate to major league success?

In case you hadn’t heard, the New York Mets will probably not be making the postseason for the seventh year in a row. That’s particularly painful considering that the rebuild didn’t really start in earnest until the 2011 season. The future does look bright for the franchise, devastating-Matt-Harvey-injury aside. You need look no further than the success that the Mets minor league affiliates have generally had this season for confirmation.

The AA Binghamton Mets broke their club record in wins en route to clinching their first division title since 2000 and their first playoff appearance since 2004. The Low-A Savannah Sand Gnats, first-half champions, are playoff-bound as well. The rookie-level Kingsport Mets won their division in the Appalachian League and secured their first playoff berth in 17 (!) years. Though the High-A St. Lucie Mets have been eliminated, the AAA Las Vegas 51s and short-season A Brooklyn Cyclones currently hold slim leads in their divisions with just a few games remaining. Shoot, even one of their Dominican Summer League teams had an outstanding year even though they fell short of the playoffs. Let’s not talk about the Gulf Coast League team.

It’s been a very successful year for the Mets’ system overall. That’s good news for the franchise with regard to the talent level in the system. However, it’s important to note that success in the minors is also important for the owners of those teams as well. Just as the big club feels the effects of a bad team on attendance and revenue, the farm teams’ economic success depends on their team being competitive. To do that, they need talented players on their rosters. Minor league rosters fluctuate as a function of being a farm team of a major league franchise but, theoretically, a talent-laden system should result in competitive teams.

The problem for the Mets has been that, until recently and except for the usually competitive Cyclones, their minor league system hasn’t been particularly good. Except for a few underrated prospects that have made an impact at the major league level, it was quite obvious that the system was neglected for most of the last decade. That neglect came in the form of bad drafts, sacrificing picks for big name free-agent signings, and heavy emphasis on international free agents that were rushed through the system at an irresponsible rate.

You need look no further than the Mets separation from the Buffalo Bisons as their AAA affiliate to understand the effects a perpetually miserable team can have on the parent club/farm club dynamic. Now their AAA team is located in Las Vegas, the short straw of all of the AAA affiliates, because Bisons ownership had had enough. Thankfully, the system as a whole has vastly improved and it seems as though they are taking their farm clubs’ success into consideration. In fact, Mets GM Sandy Alderson has stated that September call-ups will not occur until after the minor league postseason (where applicable).

The newfound system-wide success is a welcome change, but there remains a burning question: do successful minor league teams portend future success of their major league parent team? It’s an interesting question and a tough one to answer.

In 2011, Scott McKinney at Beyond the Box Score found that a good farm system helps the major league team significantly. McKinney chose the organizations with top five systems, per Baseball America’s annual Organizational Talent Rankings, from 1995 to 2005 and compared how those organizations’ major league teams performed for the five years after the ranking year. He found that, on average, just over half of the fWAR of his sample of “successful” teams was from homegrown players. Of course, he also found that in most cases those successful teams also needed to add significant talent from outside of the organization.

McKinney’s research was based on organizational rankings, though, and not on minor league affiliate performance. Would it be accurate to make the leap in logic that strong minor league teams correlate with a strong minor league system? It’s not unreasonable to make that leap, but that determination is up to the reader. The Mets system won’t be ranked in the top five this year, but it’s very strong system and most certainly stronger than it has been in the recent past.

It would appear that a successful major league team needs to be built on both homegrown talent and outside help, a prospect that probably seems obvious to most. Interestingly, this is essentially the situation in which the Mets find themselves heading into this off-season. The pipeline of young talent, specifically pitching talent, is well on its way to Flushing but needs to be supplemented with outside help. Alderson and his team know what they need to do to move this team into contention, and it’s up to them to make it happen this winter.

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