Mets top prospects: Numbers 10-6

This is the ninth installment in our countdown series. If you missed earlier entries, you can see them here:

Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII, Part VIII

#10: Dominic Smith

• Bats: Left
• Throws: Left
• Height: 6’0”
• Weight: 185 Lbs.
• Born: 6/15/95, US

Scouting – Here is something from back in June:

Smith is the rare multi-positional prospect that may ultimately provide more value at the position lower on the defensive spectrum (first base versus a corner outfield spot). At the three spot, Smith boasts excellent footwork and some of the best hands you will ever see in a prep player. He has the potential to grow into the best defensive first baseman in the league. In the outfield, his footspeed plays down due to poor routes and inconsistent reads off the bat, casting doubt as to whether he can provide more than below average defense out in the grass. Smith is a pure hitter that excels at barreling up balls and producing loud contact. At times he can get overly aggressive and expand the zone, but overall he has a good feel for the strikezone and shows the ability to both turn around good velocity and drive stuff on the outer-half to the left-center gap. As he matures physically, he should see a jump in his playable power, which has already improved over the past twelve months. The upside is a plus hit/plus power bat that could fit comfortably in the middle of a first division lineup.

History – Drafted by the Mets 11^th overall in the 2013 draft some people felt that the Mets reached for a high school bat where they could have signed a high caliber college outfielder instead.  The upside is that Smith was supposed to have perhaps the best overall hitting tools in the 2013 draft.  It winds up as a bit of a risk but the upside is there.

2013 – Smith did not catch fire right away, but nobody in the GCL did for the Mets.  He did start to heat up towards the end of the season and finished with a respectable .791 OPS.  He then got a taste of Kingsport and had a triumphant 3 games where his OPS skyrocketed to 2.083.  Two things jump out to me in his first season.  One is clearly the power.  He’s got solid doubles power right now and likely needs some development to bring that up to HR power.  The second is patience.  He only struck out 37 times in 51 games and he walked a healthy 26 times.  This will lead to Alderson’s model of high OBP players and should EVENTUALLY pay dividends in the majors.

2014 – Here is where it gets messy.  Some people (like me) would see Smith move into Brookyln where he could be the star attraction for the Cyclones and have a full extended spring training with the Mets.  Other people would prefer to see Smith skip Brooklyn for Savannah or Port St. Lucie.  While I think he’s ready for that, I do think that players learn things in their extended springs.  I think being on a short-season club for 2014 would help his development.  Unless he suffers major regression, I do think he can start 2015 in Port St. Lucie or higher.

#9: Steven Matz

• Bats: Right
• Throws: Left
• Height: 6’2”
• Weight: 192 Lbs.
• Born: 5/29/91, US

Scouting – Here is something from the 2009 draft.  Note that his velocity is a good bit higher these days:

The LHP out of Ward Melville High School (East Setauket, NY) has produced “average” velocity consistently ranging from 88-92, but has touched 94 and scouts believe he can get stronger and thus throw faster. His curveball is projected to be above-average due to good spin and arm speed and he’s also thrown a change-up on occassion, but with little consistency. Matz will be heading to Coastal Carolina.

History – Drafted in 2009 you might notice that his first stats appear in 2012 where Matz manages a meager 29 innings for Kingsport.  When he was drafted people assumed he had Tommy John in his future.  What they couldn’t guess was that the surgery would be needed before he managed a single minor league inning.  2012 was a good, overall, debut for Matz who needed to prove a lot in a hurry.

2013 – Skipping Brooklyn for Savannah and being slated as a starter was a risk.  Matz had managed 29 innings between 2009 and 2012.  In 2013 he managed to start 21 games and hurl 106.1 innings.  That is only a little over 5 innings per start but it’s still good to see.  He maintained a K/9 above 10.0 and lowered his BB/9 2 whole points.  He is likely the highest ceiling pitcher in the Met farm… after Noah Syndergaard.

2014 – Without question Matz should pitch in Port St. Lucie.  Some people would consider skipping the level but Mark Cohoon can tell you that isn’t a great idea.  Matz will continue to develop at the level/season rate at least through 2015.  He could make his debut in 2016, as early as June of that year.

#8: Darin Gorski

• Bats: Left
• Throws: Left
• Height: 6’4”
• Weight: 210 Lbs.
• Born: 10/6/87, US

Scouting – His nickname is pickles?

A big lefthander in the Mets system, Darin ‘Pickles’ Gorski is a mature pitching prospect with what might be the best changeup the NY farm has seen in a decade. Pickles struck out 118 in 140 Binghampton innings last year, mainly on the combination of a decent 94mph fastball and that plus change. Without much left to prove, he’ll be gunning for a midseason fill-in job with the team in 2013.

History – Drafted by the Mets in the 7^th round of the 2009 draft he has turned into one of the systems “hidden gems.”  In 2011 he appeared to jump into the spotlight out of nowhere.  A 2.08 ERA, 0.995 WHIP, and a 9.1 K/9 will do that.  Yet, in 2012 he failed to see the same success in AA and some people (like me) gave up on him.

2013 – After a rocky debut in AAA the Mets brought Gorski back to AA where he was able to regain the poise he showed in 2011.  The numbers are strikingly similar, 1.83 ERA, 0.864 WHIP and a 7.7 K/9 have put Gorski back up on the radar.

 2014 – Is he really Top 10 material?  Well here’s the justification.  He’s going to be in AAA knocking on the door of the major league club.  He now boasts a 94 MPH fastball which is VERY good for a lefty.  He will be in competition for the 5^th starter job this Spring but I don’t expect him to win it.  With only Jonathon Niese and Steven Matz as the other starting lefties in the Met arsenal, I’d bet Gorski has a future with the team.

#7: Dilson Herrera

• Bats: Right
• Throws: Right
• Height: 5’10”
• Weight: 150 Lbs.
• Born: 3/3/94, CO

Scouting – Have a read:

Herrera is a converted third baseman out of Cartagena, Columbia who is three years in to his professional baseball career, and in his second year playing in the U.S., after spending time in the Venezuelan Summer League in 2011. He is listed at 5’10″ and 150 pounds, very small, even for a middle infielder. However, he has surprising power for his size, which you’ll see in his career statistics. It’s unusual enough to see a middle infielder hit with power like that at 18 and 19 years old, let alone someone of Herrera’s size doing it in leagues like the Gulf Coast League and South Atlantic League, where you normally don’t see much power. In addition, his walk rate at just below 8% is solid for a middle infielder. His strikeout rate has risen from 15.4% in the Venezuelan Summer League gradually up to 23%, where it site right now. That’s a bit of a concern, but it’s not something to get too worried about at this point with Herrera being only 19 years old. One of Herrera’s best tools is his speed, which many scouts rate a 60 on the 20-80 scale, making it a plus tool. Speed is odd because it peaks very early and lots of players with “plus” speed in the minors never end up stealing a ton of bases at the big league level. However, at this point expect him to be a 20-30 stolen base type player. Despite being converted to second base, Herrera is improving at the position and could actually end up an above-average second baseman.

History – Herrera has had a couple of things going for him in his minor league career.  Speed, which turns a .250 hitter into a .300 hitter because he can beat out some grounders and power.  Power is what is truly astonishing.  The guy is only 5’10” (Giant by Groveman standards but not by baseball ones) and 150 Lbs.  He should not be hitting over 10 home runs in the minors… but he is!

2013 – Played all 116 games in the Sally but only the final 7 games for the Met affiliate.  He managed 27 doubles, 3 triples and 11 home runs in that time.  For some comparison, Brandon Nimmo only hit 16, 2 and 6.  The stolen bases are nice but when I look at Herrera I see a hitter like Stephen Drew at second base.  Should he be healthy that’s a very nice thing to have.

2014 – Herrera will move to Port St. Lucie where he might hit a snag with L.J. Mazzilli also being ready for the level.  Herrera is the higher ceiling prospect and takes priority.

#6: Jacob deGrom

• Bats: Left
• Throws: Right
• Height: 6’4”
• Weight: 185 Lbs.
• Born: 6/19/88, US

Scouting – The old diamond in the rough story:

At 6’4” and 185 Lbs, DeGrom is a big, lanky starting pitcher who has the kind of physical potential scouts love.  He was a shortstop for Stetson University for two seasons before switching to pitching as a Junior. DeGrom has shown a fastball that lives around 94 MPH and has touched 97 MPH.  While he’s already 24, his light frame hints at the ability to add a little more juice to his fastball if he added a bit more muscle.  He throws the usual changer and slider to accompany his fastball and sounds like a solid prospect on paper… except he shouldn’t. Jacob deGrom was a 9th round pick.  The 9th round isn’t so far down that it’s worthless but you don’t typically get pitchers who factor above the 5th spot in a rotation out of the round.

History – Drafted in the 9^th round of the 2010 draft deGrom skipped 2011 thanks to injury.  He returned in 2012 with a vengeance.  He defied expectations and dominated at both the A and A+ levels through 19 starts.  His combination of stuff, control and mentality made him look like much more of a mid-rotation starter than organizational fodder.

2013 – In 2013 he pitched 2 games for Port St. Lucie, 10 games for Binghamton and 14 games for Las Vegas.  He managed 147.2 innings in the season and a K/9 in line with his career average (7.3).  We can no longer chalk his success up to being “Too Old for his Level” or “Luck”.  deGrom is a real pitcher and could make his debut with the Mets right out of Spring Training.

2014 – It’s hard, with the injury to Harvey to not project deGrom to make the Met rotation.  We simply need to wait and see what Alderson does.  It would not surprise me (it might disgust me) to see Alderson bring in TWO filler arms to hold the fort in Flushing while deGrom and Montero continue to try an hone their craft in AAA.