Mets top prospects: Numbers 5-1

This is the 10th and final installment in our countdown series. If you missed earlier entries, you can see them here:

Part I, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, Part VI, Part VII, Part VIII, Part IX

#5: Kevin Plawecki

• Bats: Right
• Throws: Right
• Height: 6’2”
• Weight: 215 Lbs.
• Born: 2/26/91, US

Scouting – There is a lot written but I prefer succinctness in this case:

A college catcher with a short, powerful stroke at the plate, Mets prospect Kevin Plawecki is a throwback tough-guy catcher whose game is already quite advanced. Given a year or three to absorb the finer points of game-calling, he could blossom into a regular on a rebuilt Mets club of the near future.

History – Plawecki was drafted in 2012 back when people laughed at the thought of trading R.A. Dickey for Travis d’Arnaud.  He was thought to be the Met future at the position, although he was more of a “Safe” pick than people liked, he was picked 35^th overall.  Plawecki didn’t SEEM to produce much in 2012, but a .729 OPS tells the true story of a solid season in Brooklyn and may have given hints at what he could become in 2013.

2013 – Plawecki started the season in Savannah, the worst power park in the minors.  In 65 games he hit 24 doubles, a  triple and 6 home runs.  He managed an OPS of .884 in Savannah and then went onto Port St. Lucie for a .783 encore of 60 games.  The wonderful thing about this 2013 season is the 47 extra base hits.  Those knocks make Plawecki look like a future starter… though at this point, that might mean he’s trade bait.

2014 – It’ll be hard to convince me that Plawecki needs to stay in A+ baseball to start the year.  I would bet that he moves up to AA where he’ll be backed up by Cam Maron and be able to prove his prospect merits.  Plawecki should NOT be in Baseball America’s Top 100, however.  While his season was good, the gap between expectations and results was a little too high for me to bank on sustainability.  Look for some level of regression in 2014 and maybe for Plawecki  to repeat AA in 2015.  All-in-all… it’s looking like a better draft pick than we thought he was a year ago.

#4: Cesar Puello

• Bats: Right
• Throws: Right
• Height: 6’2”
• Weight: 195 Lbs.
• Born: 4/1/91, DO

Scouting – A great quote from Kevin Goldstein of Future Shock:

“Puello is arguably the best athlete in the system. He’s a plus-plus runner, and scouts project some power for him down the road based on his size and strength. His arm is another plus tool, and he made some adjustments to his swing as the season went on, leading to more consistent contact.”

History – Puello played his first season with the Mets back in 2008.  You can tell that he was a talented player if you look at the progression in his OPS as he progressed from year to year: .714, .796, .734, .710, .751 going from the GCL to the FSL between 2008 and 2012.  Two years jump out at me.  In 2010 we saw a Puello who ran, he stole 45 bases in 109 games and looked like he might be a future center fielder.  Then, in 2011, he hit 10 homers and 5 triples and only stole 19.  We never questioned if he had talent, only if he’d put everything together and stay healthy enough to use it.

2013 – Puello made a significant jump in production in 2013.  What should be noted for PED enthusiasts is that, while he was suspended, he did not have a positive test during this season and that the Biogenesis involvement was during his injury plagued 2012.  Regardless you are allowed to raise your skepticism about Puellos .326/.403/.547 line, his 16 home runs and his 24 stolen bases.  I’ll just point out that he would have been darn close to a 30/30 season in a full major league season.

2014 – Puello could have a chance of making the team out of Spring Training.  He’s going to get a healthy look in the major league camp with AAA being a fine alternative.  If he ends up in Las Vegas I’d like to see his power pace go up a tick… though it would be MOST important to see him walk more.  Puello may not make Baseball America’s Top 100 but he deserves to in my humble opinion.

#3: Brandon Nimmo

• Bats: Left
• Throws: Right
• Height: 6’3”
• Weight: 185 Lbs.
• Born: 3/27/93, US

Scouting – Here is a pretty full write up from after Nimmo was drafted:

• Speed: Nimmo has run a post-surgery 6.39 60 with an average of 6.5. This puts him at a 7 on the scale, and his hitting the magical 6.4 puts him a tick higher. Conversely, he is a bit slow coming out of the box, and as I’ll discuss later, has some fixable issues there as well which should boost his home to first times up the chart. So, for now, I’d rank him overall just a bit below seven, or as in the case with his arm, “fringe plus.” 
• Defense: Nimmo has shown both the ability to recognize the ball off the bat early and also to consistently be in position to make a play after he has.. He has the speed to play center, and with some adjustments, the consistent arm strength to play right. Without seeing him in game action it’s hard to rank him accurately, however the consensus is by the time he reaches New York he will be a solid average to plus outfielder. 
• Hitting: Nimmo has plus hitting potential, but being as his experience is limited, as is the video, it’s difficult, if not impossible to label him. Pro scouts are positive about his hit tool, with some saying his “polish with the bat” to be almost as impressive as his speed. During his MVP performance last summer in the Under Armour game, he doubled down the left field line and singled through shortstop for his two hits, so he’s not afraid to use the opposite field and is comfortable with his hitting style and approach.
• Arm Strength: Nimmo’s arm has been called everything from “solid average” to “fringe plus”, which would slot him somewhere in the 5 to 6 range, maybe as high as six and a half. In looking at the video the first thing that jumps at me is the hitch he has in his throwing motion. I like the fact the hitch is at the bottom of his arc and not closer to his release point, which makes it an easier fix one he reports to Instructional League.
• Power: While not quite as difficult to project as the overall hit tool because not everyone HAS power, it still can be a tricky one to figure out at times. It is also the one tool which causes the most disagreement among scouts…Where does Nimmo profile power wise? It’s impossible to say, although no one thought Ike Davis would be a 20 homer guy when he was drafted either, and that’s including playing half the time in Citi Field.

History – While Nimmo’s 2011 (which started late as the Mets took too long in signing him) didn’t show us much, his 2012 in Brooklyn gave Met fans some reason to feel optimistic.  He started the year not hitting… but walking… A LOT.  Then finished the year hitting… but striking out… A LOT.  He finished the year with a solid OPS of .778 which was fueled by really strong doubles power, which is pretty good in Brooklyn.

2013 – What might this season have been?  Nimmo was on a tear, destroying Savannah with the help of Jayce Boyd and Kevin Plawecki.  Then… he got hurt and when he came back… he wasn’t the same.  He still showed flashes after the injury but all of that momentum from the early season was gone.  He still struck out too much but he walked more and more consistently and even shows signs of learning how to swipe some bags.

2014 – Nimmo should be headed to Port St. Lucie where I would look for him to hit, AT LEAST, 10 home runs and swipe, AT LEAST 15 bags if he’s going to stay this high in future rankings.  In the best of worlds, Nimmo now looks to be developing into a 20/20 Shin-Soo Choo type hitter with perhaps more defensive ability to handle center field.

#2: Rafael Montero

• Bats: Right
• Throws: Right
• Height: 6’0”
• Weight: 170 Lbs.
• Born: 10/17/90, DO

Scouting – His fastball sits at 91-93 MPH and can touch 94 but it’s the control of this pitch that impresses.  He doesn’t miss the strikezone with this pitch often and he can hit his spots.  Montero is seeing a lot of improvement in his secondary pitches as he progresses which has allowed his seemingly flawless rise from obscurity.  His slider and changeup are still works in progress but he has already been seen to use them effectively.

History – Montero is perhaps the fastest riser that I have ever seen.  In 2011 he started in the DSL and played 4 games before a promotion to the GCL where he pitched in 7, a promotion to the APP where he pitched in 4 and finally a trip to Brooklyn where he had 2 appearences.  In 2012 he went from Savannah to Port St. Lucie at the age of 21 and to spoil part of the 2013 write up, progressed from AA to AAA at the age of 22.  Sometimes prospects are simply ready to progress to the next level.  In his 3 seasons in the minors he’s made 59 starts and amassed a 2.41 ERA, 1.016 WHIP, a 7.4 H/9, a 1.7 BB/9 and a 8.4 K/9.

2013 – Montero had clawed his way into the Top 10 of just about every Met pundit prior to the 2013 season and when he started in AA many people would have been okay with a full season and some small amounts of regression.  The reality was that AA seemed to almost pose no challenge to Montero.  A 0.915 WHIP and a 9.7 K/9 in AA is pretty impressive and it is little wonder that he earned his way into the Las Vegas rotation after 11 starts.  Las Vegas is rough to pitch in and people (again) projected some regression.  Reality this time was a little more human.  He was pretty great, all things considered, but the 3.05 ERA, 1.241 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 were, technically, regressions.

2014 – Could the Mets be looking at a rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Niese and Montero?  Sure… but I think the Mets view Montero as the most easily traded name in their farm.  Montero is likely to make an appearance in Baseball America’s Top 100 so he should have legit value to teams looking for an MLB ready pitcher.  He still projects as a #4 or #5 pitcher on a good team.  This means he’s got the stuff to give you #2 or #3 quality at times.

#1: Noah Syndergaard

• Bats: Left
• Throws: Right
• Height: 6’6”
• Weight: 240 Lbs.
• Born: 8/29/92, US

Scouting – A report from before he was drafted:

Noah Syndergaard is a tall, projectable right-handed high school pitcher from Legacy High School in Mansfield, Texas. Syndergaard is yet another pop-up prospect this year, and he might even go the highest of any spring pop-up in the draft. He has major helium, and he’s in a great location for a large number of scouts to see him. That combination of size, stuff, projectability, and location all play a factor in draft position, especially when everything comes together at the same time after previously not going together at all. He was only a marginal college prospect for the most part entering the spring, but he came at hitters with more advanced stuff and command this spring, which makes him much more valuable, as there are very few high school arms who can match what he’s been doing in the few weeks leading up to the draft. He’s also a perfect workout arm, so teams that prefer that might be pushing hard on him, hoping to land him early. He’s a possible number three starter, so there’s big upside here. His fastball is a solid-average to above-average pitch already, and it projects plus, sitting 90-92, touching 94-95, and that’s very new velocity for him. He complements that pitch with a future above-average to plus curveball and a marginal changeup, but he only needs the two good pitches to get by.

History – Drafted by the Blue Jays in 2010 (38^th overall) he was later traded as part of the R.A. Dickey trade that I think all of Canada may now regret.  Prior to joining the Mets, Syndergaard had been nothing but exceptional.  In 2011 he pitched in 13 games between RK, A- and A and he managed a 1.83 ERA while doing it.  His 10.4 K/9 and 1.085 WHIP were pretty nice as well.  In 2012 he spent a full season in the Midwest League where his ERA went up a tick (2.60), his WHIP went down a tick (1.080) and his K/9 improved a small bit (10.6).

2013 – The Mets allowed Syndergaard to see 12 games in A+ before advancing him to AA.  All and all his numbers across the board are pretty similar to 2011 and 2012… so… awesome.  3.06 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 and all at the age of 20.  He’s still being protected so he only averaged about 5.1 innings per start but that is still impressive for a pitcher in his first taste of AA.

2014 – The Mets could start Syndergaard back in AA because… well… Las Vegas is kinda the worst pitcher park EVER, but I doubt it.  I think the logic goes that if Syndergaard can pitch in a dry hot climate where fly balls travel as far as the eye can see… then he can sure pitch in Citi Field.  I’d expect Syndergaard to finish the season with the team and perhaps as early as we saw Zack Wheeler in 2013.  Matt Harvey, Wheeler and Syndergaard (Not to forget Jonathon Niese) could make for a magical rotation in 2015.