I happen to be a big fan of Tim Dierkes and his website www.mlbtraderumors.com. Yesterday he posted an updated list of the Top 50 Free Agents for 2014 and to surprise some folks, you’ll note that he has Alderson nabbing 4 of the top 50. Who?
#13, Curtis Granderson: The experts remain undecided on whether Granderson winds up getting a qualifying offer from the Yankees or not. If he gets one he could simply fall off of Alderson’s list. A three year $45 Mil contract seems a little high to me considering the amount of time Granderson has spent hurt, but if we’re talking about improving the Met lineup while maintaining a solid defensive core he’d fit the bill. It’s important to note that Choo is going to the Tigers and Ellsbury to the Mariners. It’s also important to note that the Phillies add Nelson Cruz which does a lot to negate the net add of Granderson to the Mets.
#14, Stephen Drew: Drew is expected to sign a four year $40 Mil contract and I’d want no part of that, but apparently the Mets would. I think he’ll wind up with less than that but you’ll note that after two players $25 of the available $35 is gone. Drew would be helpful but I don’t know where he fits into the Met’s system. Daniel Murphy is a better #2 hitter and Drew doesn’t have the power to really hit in the center of a lineup. He’s still a much better bat than Ruben Tejada or Omar Quintanilla, so I wouldn’t complain.
#23, Bronson Arroyo: Dierkes pegs Arroyo to earn $24 Mil over two years which places the rock and roll starter out of the Met price range. If he’s that expensive I don’t think the Mets should be looking his way anyhow. He’s not worth $12 Mil over one season and he’s not worth that money over two. With Matt Harvey and Jeremy Hefner due back in 2015 this makes no sense to me.
#49, Roy Halladay: There is no price tag attached to Halladay and the fact that the Mets train in Florida is said to be a plus. I really like the idea of Halladay grooming Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard as he already worked with Harvey. I love the idea of adding Halladay for a one-year deal.
Tim Dierkes Mets:
Lineup:
- Eric Young Jr. [LF]
- Daniel Murphy [2B]
- David Wright [3B]
- Curtis Granderson [RF]
- Ike Davis/Lucas Duda [1B]
- Stephen Drew [SS]
- Travis d’Arnaud [C]
- Juan Lagares [CF]
Bench:
- Anthony Recker [C]
- Josh Satin [1B/3B]
- Justin Turner [2B/SS]
- Matt DenDekker [OF]
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis [OF]
Rotation:
- Zack Wheeler
- Jonathon Niese
- Roy Halladay
- Dillon Gee
- Bronson Arroyo
Bullpen:
- Bobby Parnell [CL]
- Jeurys Familia [SU]
- Josh Edgin [SU]
- Vic Black [MR]
- Jack Leathersich [MR]
- Tim Byrdak [LOOGY]
- Carlos Torres [LR]
If the mets don’t add two power hitting outfielders plus an offensive SS they won’t be much better than last year! If you don’t provide protection for your clean up hitter(I’m not
talking Duda or Davis or the new SS) they will be almost in the same position as last year?
Sign Kazmir for your 4th starter he will cost less than Arroyo and I have a gut feeling he will sign for one year two at the worst but Arroyo will want three years! Signing Kazmir will
give you another lefty in the rotation and be insurance in case you trade Niese then invite
Dice K and Mejia to spring training to compete for the 5th spot!
Wouldn’t Choo be a better investment to play right field? Even if it’s 4 years 60 million? I don’t see the logic in bringing in Arroyo after seeing how the Mets just got burned with Santana’s contract. I would rather see that 12 million dollars go towards a shortstop(Peralta) or a first base man. Trade Murphy,Davis or Duda and Montero? for CarGo. Let Flores and Young compete for second base. Plenty of veteran free agent first base men available this off season.
If you are asking me? Sure. I’d prefer Choo.
I believe I already wrote that I don’t like signing Arroyo.
Why does Colorado make that trade?
You do realize that Alderson doesn’t have an open checkbook, right?
Ike Davis or Lucas Duda would be traded. You can’t platoon two lefties. Being that Davis costs more and has a 32 HR season in his resume, he probably has more value. I still think they will send him to Colorado, whose stadium makes the Davis’ of the world look great again, for an older Cuddyer. It would serve both teams needs. Colorado gets a power hitter who is young and can play 1b and the Mets get rid of one of their 10 first basemen for someone they can use, even if it is just for a year.
*Shakes Head*
Are people skipping over the text and only reading the roster?
His rotation is also wrong. Mejia would be starting, if healthy. Thor will be up in 2 months and, if he is still here, so is Montero. DeGrom also would be up this year and may even play right away. There is no reason for the Mets to sign two pure starters. One would get cut half way through the season. You can’t send both to the Bullpen.
Not if you assume Dierkes is right and the Mets are getting both Bronson Arroyo and Roy Halladay, then Mejia is not in the rotation until injury.
That looks like crap to me! I wouldn’t mind having Halliday on the cheap and I could live with granderson for the right deal but no to arroyo and we can’t give drew that much money! Signing a bunch of injury prone guys is a bad idea and one of the reasons we are where we are today! I think sandy is smarter than that! I hope he is!
It isn’t who I’d want either. We should take heart that these predictions almost never come true.
I’ll see if I can find the Top 50 from last season.
As we should have learned from the past, pitchers get hurt. Therefore, you need extra arms to start the season. If the Mets stick to keeping Thor on the farm to start the season and do the same with Montero (if they don’t trade him), they may very well need some FA arms for insurance.
My priority is bringing in some new bodies for the OF, SS and 1B, in that order. But, Sandy can’t ignore the starting rotation.
The trouble is that there are too many needs and not enough Wilpon money to go around.
I would not be unhappy with the thought of bringing in Granderson/Choo/Cruz and Drew/Peralta but the Arroyo element would be the major waste of Dierkes projection. Better to get Halladay and some scrap heap arm like Matsuzaka.
I think the plan would then be to trade Murphy or Flores with ONE of Syndergaard/Montero/deGrom for another offensive piece. That piece will not be a big money player though.
Kudos to anyone who tries to make a comprehensive list of where they think the top free-agents will go, but sadly, it is another fruitless exercise as no one has the knowledge and insight of all 30 teams to predict with much accuracy where the majority of free agents are going.
Looking at what he projected, Granderson/Drew/Arroyo looks like they will take an AAV of $37 combined (2014 salary likely to be lower), which leaves no room for bench pieces or bullpen pieces.
The fact that he shows Byrdak as part of the bullpen really tells you that he doesn’t know the Mets in depth, again, not his fault as no one can possibly know the in’s and out’s of all 30 teams.
Name, you are right, there isn’t enough money to go around. Arroyo is the weak link and unnecessary investment.
Yeah I gotta agree, I really would not expect the Mets to sign Drew or Arroyo on those terms. Who knows, though, really? I certainly wouldn’t be happy with the outcome of these predictions.
I like the idea of Drew and Halladay. The Mets do need a vet pitcher to help guild the young arms and brains but they don’t need two. If no Halladay than Arroyo certainly fills that bill. I wouldn’t be surprised if Grandy took the Yankees offers. His game is well suited to that stadium.
I could see Drew taking the QO as he won’t make that much yearly on a long term deal and could seek a better deal next year.
Granderson too. He’s not getting 14 million a year in the open market.
I’m ok with the idea of Arroyo if they trade Gee, but only then.
Halladay would be fine on a minimal contract, but only then.
I don’t think Drew was offered a QO. That would mean that Boston was willing to pay him 14+ Mil in 2014. He’s expected to have his yearly services in the 10 Mil range.
Halladay might not be the most expensive guy, but he won’t sign for minimum.
My bet is 2 Mil base with incentives based on IP
I think Halladay will cost more than that. For comparison, Roy Oswalt signed a 2.3 million contract(although it wasn’t a true major league contract and he signed during the season)
My gut says that someone will take a flier at him for 5 mil + incentives.
[…] this is being written, 2014 free agency is a little more than twelve hours old. Already there is speculation out there about who the Mets will come away with. There’s really very little consensus around who […]