Shopping in the bargain bin with Sandy Alderson

Sandy Alderson reportedly has a plan for the New York Mets. Supposedly this plan includes spending money to improve aspects of the team that, at this point, don’t appear to have enough, or any, major league talent. Mets fans around the globe rejoiced at the idea, looked at the team’s payroll and, logically made the leap that, for the first time in three years, the team actually has money to spend. Fans scoured the internet for tiny blips of rumors and information. We listened to the radio for any nuance of a potential signing or trade. The Blog world exploded with articles, positive, negative and ambivalent, about what the offseason would bring.

Then things started to leak out. The Mets have an anti-100 million dollar stance. The Mets are unwilling to sacrifice any draft picks. The team is “in on everyone” then their interest is “overstated.” Jeff Wilpon talks about “something happening soon” and “balls in the air,” then says, “the dollars are scary,” as his team announces a Boyz II Men concert.

Then our illustrious general manager, when discussing the plan on the radio, proceeds to state, “It’s kind of too bad that the measure of commitment, the measure of loyalty to the fan base, is measured in dollar signs.” Outside of the back hand slap that the comment made towards the fans, Alderson’s statement left the following questions:

How did all the hope disappear so fast?

What happens now?

The Mets have stated the payroll could be as much as $85 to $90 million dollars next year. It is currently, approximately 55 million, with anticipated arbitration raises. Yet, all of the leaked information seems to state that the Mets aren’t going anywhere near players that will sign for $15 million or more on multi-year contracts. Which leaves only one place for the team to go and that is straight into the bargain bin. With that knowledge in hand, the question about hope is also easily answered. The fans can’t have hope when we’re treading the same ground we have for the last two years.

Saying that, the team has money to spend and there is value in bargains, so what could the team look like if Alderson goes to Wal-Mart instead of Saks Fifth Avenue?

First Base – Ike Davis

Davis looks like he’s on his way out of town, but if the Mets are shopping in the value section at Wal-Mart for players, they can’t trade Davis. He’s still in his arbitration years and isn’t going to make so much money that he’s a drag on the payroll. Davis has a higher upside than Duda, is a better defender and did show some signs of life after the all star break last year. If the Mets do their shopping on Fifth Avenue, then go ahead and trade Davis, but if they are looking at the half priced items in CVS, they can’t afford to give up on a young left handed power hitter. If he has another terrible season, Allan Dykstra is waiting in the wings to fill in with Josh Satin while the Mets figure it all out again for next year.

Second Base – Daniel Murphy

The tea leaves read that Murphy is out of town as well, but again, if the Mets are hitting thrift stores instead of Tommy Hilfiger, they can’t afford to trade Murphy (the reader should give the word afford the appropriate amount of cynicism). Murphy is a top ten offensive second baseman and can only be traded if the Mets are truly going to pick up players from Tiffany’s. If not, they can’t deal away a quality bat, leader in the clubhouse and hard -nosed player from a team that is picking it’s players up from that cheap pawn shop next to the check cashing place.

Shortstop – Rafael Furcal and Ruben Tejada (with Wilfredo Tovar waiting in the wings)

This is the most painful of all the decisions this team would make while perusing the banged up appliances at P.C. Richards slightly damaged warehouse. Jhonny Peralta should be a Met. He has no draft pick compensation attached to him and will not get the 15 million plus he’s asking for. I still see him getting something like 3 years and 40 million dollars, maybe with an option year attached to the end. That would be worth it for Peralta as, even if he has to transition from shortstop after two years, he can slide to second when Murphy is passed his arbitration years. Since the Mets seem to be intent on shopping for deals at the flea market, Peralta would appear to be out. That would also eliminate Stephen Drew (money and draft pick attachment), leaving Furcal as the only viable alternative (unless you want Clint Barmes). Since we all know Furcal is an injury risk that makes Tejada’s place on the team all but guaranteed. Since we also know that Tejada and Furcal’s ability to be starters is unknown and unreliable, that leaves the hope that Tovar can hit enough at AAA to warrant an everyday role in the big leagues. Failing that, the Mets love Omar Quintanilla, which if he becomes a regular player for this team again, that scream you will hear is coming all the way from my backyard on Long Island.

Third Base – David Wright

It’s just too bad that this team compiled from the donations at Goodwill will waste one more year of Wright’s prime.

Center Field – Juan Lagares

Lagares could be one of the shining lights on this team. He has all the attributes to be a successful big leaguer and if he doesn’t fall into the sophomore slump, will hopefully show the growth we all want to see in his game. He reportedly has the work ethic, talent and desire, so he should be something to look forward to.

Left Field and Right Field – Matt Joyce, Chris Young and Michael Morse (with a sprinkling of Eric Young Jr., Matt den Dekker and Cesar Puello, if he hits in AAA)

Joyce would come in a trade from the Rays for Lucas Duda (Davis should not be traded for Joyce). Chris Young’s option year wasn’t picked up by the A’s, making him a free agent. Those two could form a solid platoon (or be absolutely terrible). Chris Young has had two lost, injury plagued years, but he historically has hit lefties well and is an excellent fielder with speed and power. Joyce has power and is adequate in the field (according to Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, a plus fielder in left field and slightly below average in right field over the course of his career), but he’s still in his arbitration years and can fill a corner spot for a year. Also, this combination won’t block Puello if he proves ready. It is definitely not ideal and probably wouldn’t meet the production that Marlon Byrd provided in 2013, but it’s… Well, it’s something at least.

Morse offers more upside than Joyce or Chris Young. He is a legitimate 30 home run threat who had a lost year last year. Some reports state that this was due to a wrist injury that didn’t properly heal throughout the season. His numbers seem to show that to be true. In his first 173 at-bats, Morse hit .254 with a .789 OPS and 11 home runs. After May, Morse hit under 200 and only hit two more home runs over his final 147 at bats. Morse reportedly had surgery on the wrist after the season ended and is supposed to be ready for spring training… So that’s good. In the field, Morse doesn’t offer much. According to Baseball-Reference, Morse is a league average left fielder and first baseman, while below average in right field. FanGraphs has a totally different take, putting him as a minus fielder in the outfield and slightly below average at first base. Morse’s first base experience would also help if Davis flops again, as Morse can slide directly into that position during the year or for next year (if Morse hits) so that Puello can take over in the outfield. If Morse is productive, then he will be the power hitter that Terry Collins has been requesting to help protect Wright. Or, Morse could be just as unproductive as this year and the Mets don’t improve at either the corner outfield positions or at first base. But it’s not like the market is breaking down Morse’s door or anything.

None of these outfield options are ideal.

Catcher – Travis d’Arnaud

This is a given, so not much to discuss here. The Mets reportedly wanted a veteran backup catcher and are now backing off of that desire, which is totally fine. Anthony Recker has his limitations, but as a backup catcher with power off of the bench, he’s fine.

Pitching
Not much change will occur here. The Mets will go with their incumbents in the rotation and bullpen, supplemented by a few guys brought in on minor league deals to act as placeholders while Rafael Montero, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom get ready. Again, just like catching and third base, this isn’t a huge deal as the Mets have a lot of talent here. Unfortunately, until the kids are ready, there may be some pretty brutal starts coming from the four and five slots in the rotation, as well as some serious growing pains from all of the young arms in the bullpen.

So what would the lineup be in these scenarios? Hard to guess, but the best approximation would probably have Furcal, Eric Young and Chris Young sharing lead off duties (depending on who was in the lineup). Chris Young often hit leadoff while in Arizona. Although he strikes out a ton, he also knows how to draw a walk and has speed. Of course, he could hit .200 again, eliminating any positives that his talent might offer. Furcal could also only play 50 games, leaving the Mets with no choice other than Eric Young Jr. That isn’t necessarily bad, if he’s playing second base, but he won’t be, meaning the Mets are in the same production vacuum, related to position (corner outfielders should bring power) as in 2013 . They could try Tejada again in the leadoff spot, but does anyone really want to see that sequel?

After that, you can pencil in Murphy in the two hole against lefties. Wright hit’s third all the time and then, well, it’s kind of a crap shoot. Joyce would probably hit cleanup against righties, with Morse batting fifth. Of course, Davis could learn to hit home runs again and bat in the middle of the order, but we’ll see on that one. Against lefties, they’d probably move Morse up and then… Well, I guess put everyone else in a hat and hope for the best. Lagares and d’Arnaud have to be allowed to develop in the lower parts of the order and the Mets would have to cross there fingers that the group of players brought in from Marshall’s would be adequate enough to let that happen.

That team could be better than the Mets of 2012 and 2013 or it could be worse. The best guess would be that it would be exactly the same.

Hopefully the above is wrong. Bringing in two of Morse, Chris Young and Joyce wouldn’t be bad if Peralta is signed to play shortstop and a big bat is acquired in a trade for the outfield, just like bringing in Furcal and allowing him, Tejada and Tovar figure out shortstop for a year wouldn’t be horrible if two quality bats are brought in for the outfield. But only bringing in these types of players… Well that wouldn’t be good enough. All of this has not been meant to insult these players or the various stores and agencies mentioned as reference points. All of these players, along with all of those shopping places, have parts to play in both the baseball and real worlds. But let’s be real, if someone has 30 million to spend on clothing and appliances, they aren’t going to the thrift store.

Unfortunately, the Mets haven’t given us any reason to think that isn’t where this off season’s shopping will be done and that kills our dreams.

The fans aren’t asking for miracles. We’re just asking for hope, which, in the baseball world, costs money. Our fandom isn’t defined by dollar signs. It’s built from hopes, dreams, memories and loyalty. The Plan we’ve all been hearing about needs to understand that. So does Alderson. Let’s hope he does. But his most recent quotes about the fans and “waiting out the market to see who’s left” don’t appear to indicate that he gets it.