This offseason hasn’t gone as well as Mets fans would have liked so far, to say the least. It’s obviously early, and the real action generally kicks off at the winter meetings, so it’s not quite time to panic. The real source of fan frustration doesn’t seem to lie in what the team has or hasn’t done, though. It lies in the tone and posture that the team has taken thus far that is incredibly concerning to fans. Specifically, commentary about the Mets experiencing “sticker shock” at the price of free agents, the continual disconnect in communication between Sandy Alderson and ownership, and the team taking themselves out of the running early for the big ticket items have very quickly extinguished any hope and goodwill fans had going into the offseason.
Since the Mets seem to lack the money for premium free agents (bad) or refuse to overpay for average or worse players (good), they’re going to need to turn to the trade market if they want any serious upgrades. To do that, they’ll need to do two things: get creative and let go.
Alderson and his team are going to need to get really creative to make any significant improvements to the major league roster this winter. It seems that the players we all wish were available simply aren’t or would require gutting the farm to obtain. These players include Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Giancarlo Stanton, to name the truly elite few. That means that the team is going to have to do things like structure multi-team trades, call in favors, deal with the devil, or whatever else it may take to pull a rabbit out of their hat. It seems that they actually asked about Ryan Braun. That’s the sort of creativity Alderson and his team will need to tap into in the next month or two.
To do that, though, they’ll need to let go of the one thing the organization actually has going for them: pitching. There’s been an odd bit of groupthink that has permeated throughout Mets media coverage this offseason. For some reason people seem to think that because of Matt Harvey‘s injury the Mets simply cannot deal away any of their pitching. That’s nonsense and incredibly shortsighted. Sure, the 2014 Mets will be weaker without Harvey and will be even weaker if they were to deal away any of their major league pitching. That’s obvious, but that doesn’t mean Alderson should turn away from a good deal because the 2014 team might go from bad to worse. That doesn’t make any sense.
For example, suppose the Mets could package Jonathon Niese plus prospects for an impact hitter with several years of control. You don’t turn that deal down because you’re worried about 2014 alone. The strength of the Mets’ pitching depth is that they can replace Niese, if not in 2014 then in 2015 when Harvey has returned. The team would still have a solid pitching core plus that hitter they got for Niese and be none the worse.
Yes, pitching wins championships, but the team needs to score runs as well. David Wright appears to understand this fairly simple concept and said this to WFAN last week:
“We can go on and on about the depth of our starting pitching. Now it’s about getting pieces around them to make them even better, to score runs earlier in the game so they don’t feel they have to be perfect.”
The Mets don’t have much money and they have a severe need. In the trade market a team’s strength becomes their currency, and in the case of the Mets they need to turn their pitching depth into an impact hitter or two. They just can’t be afraid to do so. Alderson seems to be on board, so can we please move beyond this and nab a hitter?
The issue I see behind all this is timing. In defense of Alderson, a thing I don’t do much of, I’m sure he gets it. While we have pitching depth, a great deal of it still is not realized at MLB level, to wit: Syndergaard, Montero, Leathersich, etc. let’s face it, Niese, Gee, Hef etc are all bottom of the rotation types. We need to have a solid rotation of 7-8 quality pitchers. Just how deep are we? Where does that leave us for searching for the offense (and defense) the Mets need? This team will not be realistically competition ready until ’15 and then beyond. That means the Mets need to be planning for having contracts for (1) the short term, just to get through the wilderness, and/or (2) for the long term with a FA signing to an individual(s) who could/should be a productive part of the squad for 4 ish years, or (3) holding out for future FA signings. I’m less comfortable trading pitching “depth” today for a hitter whose production won’t be fully realized for a couple years. Why not wait, particularly because we can see how the pitching develops, which might give us more in trade if that does become the approach. I see that Alderson is looking to get the best team in when all the stars are aligned. The wild card is the Captain, who likely will be on the decline by the time this team can be serious contenders. But that seems to just be reality. He still has 4-5 reasonable years left.
My response to this would have been along the lines of Brian’s post here: https://mets360.com/?p=19857.
There is a lot of pitching depth, and that applies to both depth of actual contributors and “depth” in the sense that most of those pitchers won’t make it but there are enough that a good number SHOULD.
Also, in this case I would advocate for an established bat, not one that will need time to develop. At least when discussing trading the likes of Thor/Wheeler/etc. (CarGo, Stanton, etc.). Keep in mind with prospects all of their value comes from their projected value, so waiting too long could completely demolish that value (like Milledge or FMart).
I think getting an established bat is pointless today unless there there is long term control, like say a Stanton (or Cargo). But realistically these guys aren’t moving, and it’s astounding to keep hearing about it. astaff with Harvey, Syndergaard, Niese and Montero is exactly how you win a World Series. Yes we need real hitting, but no way do I melt down everything just done to do it. Would I trade Montero and Syndergaard for Cargo? Not in a million years. Once money frees up, if ever, then going the boston route makes perfect sense. Having 3 front end guys under long term control is irreplaceable, and will win far more games than adding one big bat, one that could be had as a FA down the road. Given the pitching melt down, I don’t believe the depth we have is somehow unreasonable. I’d like to see Montero get a chance, and if he’s all that, then see who could be had for him. Gee Niese Hef etc are Ll decent trade candidates, but the whole lot of them doesn’t bring the star bat we need.
The fundamental flaws in this line of thinking are twofold, I think. First, players like CarGo, Stanton, etc. (mentioned only as examples) are locked up by their clubs on long term deals these days rather than letting them get to FA. Second, even should a player of that caliber slip through the FA, we’ve seen that the Mets will not be giving out the $100+ million they would demand on the market.
Additionally, have you looked at the FA OF and SS available next year? Acquiring bats on the market via FA is not as viable as it used to be, and clubs realize this.
And I agree that the bat would need to be under control for several years, as stated in the article. That would increase the price tag in terms of prospects, though.
Oh I get that, and I’m not thinking of CarGo as a FA. Like I said the Boston model does become viable…like moving in on guys like Beltran or Napoli…confirmed offensive weapons that can be had for 2-3 years at a time. The kind of pitching staff that looks like is going to come up is insane, and pitching wins championships. Could you get me to bundle Wheeler + Gee + d’Arnaud + a prospect of some sort not named NS for a controllable bat? Yeah. But I’m not at all in on dumping a bunch of arms for bats. Look at CarGo right now. 4 yrs left, a full 2 years ahead of when the Mets are likely to be seriously competitive, leaving the trade for 2 yrs on his contract. I just don’t think that’s the right move..for today’s Mets.
The one thing you said that I can agree with is that Alderson gets it. The “sticker shock” and payroll/spending limits comments are deliberately made. Alderson is smart, cagey and patient and setting the tone he has is to his advantage in negotiating with agents for FAs or teams for trades.
Gee is not considered to be a bottom of the rotation pitcher. Packaged with Murphy and a few good prospects like Flores, Puello and/or deGrom, they could net us a nice return. We match up very well with the Dodgers, (for Kemp or Ethier plus cash) Brewers (for Braun) and Blue Jays. (for Bautista) We also match up very well with the Rays, who are interested in Davis or Duda. Adding a prospect and Tejada, we should be seeking Yunel Escobar in that deal.
And if you really want to get creative, a deal that would re-energize Met fans would be sending Murphy, Gee, Tejada, Puello, deGrom and (get this) Travis d’Arnaud to the Blue Jays for the two Joses: Bautista and Reyes. (with enough cash to make Reyes remaining contract reasonable) After the season Arencibia had, the Jays would love to get TdA back, and they need to upgrade 2B and get another starter. It’s a deal made in heaven.
I agree with the essence of this post. The Mets need a bat, badly. Last year Harvey pitched out of his mind and won 9 games. Something has to give. My preference would be to flip Gee or Niese in a multi-player deal. Need an offensive piece that will help in 2015 and beyond. Hard to imagine a .500 club in ’14.
I’d agree Rob, 100%.
They need two full time bats, that are tied up for the next two or three years. If you’ve kept Noah, kept Matt and at least one other starter, you’ll be able to compete if you’ve picked up two bats to go with David.
Other, 4th and 5th pitchers will always be available. Make the deal.
Having 10 starting pitchers and no hitters makes no sense at all. The Mets have got to let go of some of their pitching to get bats. Position players that they are willing to trade are not really desired by other teams. If we trade 3 prospects and 1 current starter, we still have 6 or 7 capable starters. And they become better because we can now score some runs for them.
The Mets have three offensive holes in the lineup in Tejada, Lagares, and EY. All were 90 ops below the NL average for their position. Complicate that with unknown results for dArnaud and Davis and the Mets are stuck in 2013 again. If the Mets improve to average at these positions then they will improve. Hold onto the pitching and let it “ripen” because it will become a surplus and more valuable for trade in the future.
I agree. And (while admittedly at a lower level of competition) Lagares has been tearing up DWL.
They need to address SS with a five year plan in mind. Either bite the bullet and sign Drew, or trade for a SS with a long term contract you can live with.
To me, the natural guy here is Starlin Castro, and the Mets have the moving parts to make that deal very acceptable to the Cubbies. We have young, 3B talent; we have serviceable 2B talent; we have young, cost controlled pitching. Some combination of that has to make Chicago interested, and you get back a very, very cheap, very, very young, very experienced SS. And Chicago has the in-house talent to replace him (Junior Lake). A second option here is Danny Espinosa, likewise cost-controllable for the foreseeable future.
Every other position on the field is fungible. If you have Espinosa or Castro, you have the fiscal capacity to sign a Granderson or Cruz. It’s doable, and should be done.
I get the Castro thing on raw prospect, but I have a reservation with him: He has the attitude of Valdespin, albeit, with a bit more talent. The mental lapses he shows are terrible. I went to see a couple Cubs games this year and he is the last guy off the field, last guy on the field. Rizzo runs in from 1B while Castro seems to be looking for unicorns on his walk back to the dugout. He simply looks lazy. I cant help but wonder if he will be JV2.
Good insight.
I agree that the Mets need to accept that they need to trade from strength to get anything significant. The Mets have acquired a new starting position player this year prior to non-tender deadline and winter meetings, so I think we are actually a head of schedule. The fan base just does not like the signing, though I do not judge signings until i see them on the field.
I think the Mets should accept a few things:
1) Without willingness to trade Niese or Thor it will be impossible to get a top tier player. Period.
2) Be willing to get lesser players who can make us better should be the best way to go. I am much more concerned that Ike Davis to Rays for Joyce goes down the tubes more than if we can get a Bautista type, which is a stetch anyway.
3) If you can’t get true power bat, sifficient hitting bats with high OBPs are available. Jon Jay lost his starting job in St Louis. He hits around .300 has a high OBP of over .340 and he handles lefties. He may not have power, but he can easily put up 40 doubles in Citi Field.
4) Do not be afraid to make signings/trades that the fans do not approve of. *How Dare I say this*. There are a good half dozen players that can help that would not be popular. I like the Idea of gettign Ethier and Gordon from the Dodgers. Ethier has been consistent and contrary to opinion, he does not suck. Gordon has struggled in the pros, but has shown explosive speed that cannot be taught. Changing his scenery to a place with no expectations will take the pressure off him and I believe he can do enough good to make up for the fact he may be a .240-.250 hitter. Signing guys like Emilio Bonafacio or Omar Infante and moving them back to SS would also be a good idea. They may not be listed at SS, but can still play the position and add something to the team in terms of professionalsim.
Bottom line, i do not care about splashy moves. I want moves where the team is better. If that means adding 2 or 3 second tier level players so be it. I just want a lineup where everyone is in a role and can handle the role they are in.