Now that the deadline to tender contracts to players has passed, we should expect to see teams more active in signing free agents, especially with the Winter Meetings right around the corner. Before too much more time goes by, it seemed like a good time to check in on the top free agents and offer Sandy Alderson my unsolicited advice on how he should approach them.
The following list comes from Tim Dierkes at MLBTR.com, with players who’ve already signed omitted.
| Player | Sign | Offers/Objections |
|---|---|---|
| Robinson Cano | No | Too Expensive |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | Yes | 3/$66 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | Yes | 4/$90 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | No | |
| Ervin Santana | No | |
| Matt Garza | No | |
| Hiroki Kuroda | No | |
| A.J. Burnett | No | |
| Mike Napoli | No | If only he could still catch some… |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | No | |
| Carlos Beltran | Yes | 2/$30 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yes | 4/$60 |
| Stephen Drew | Yes | 3/$36 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | No | Only need backup catcher |
| Nelson Cruz | No | A 3.9 fWAR over the past three years!! |
| Omar Infante | No | If only he could play SS… |
| Joe Nathan | No | |
| Bartolo Colon | Yes | 1/$11 |
| Bronson Arroyo | No | Because he won’t sign for one year |
| Grant Balfour | No | Too expensive |
| Joaquin Benoit | No | Same boat as Balfour |
| Scott Feldman | No | Last year was the time to have him |
| Kendrys Morales | No | Not worth draft pick compensation |
| Fernando Rodney | No | Will be looking for closer money |
| A.J. Pierzynski | Yes | 1/$4 |
| Suk-min Yoon | No | |
| James Loney | No | He should beg to go back to Tampa |
| Corey Hart | No | Worried about those knees |
| Edward Mujica | No | |
| Nate McLouth | Yes | 1/$4 |
| Juan Uribe | No | Don’t view him as a SS option |
| Paul Maholm | No | Did you see the Vargas contract? |
| Justin Morneau | No | Concussions ruined him |
| Jesse Crain | Yes | Incentive-laden deal |
| Brian Wilson | Yes | 1/$4 |
| Jason Hammel | Yes | 1/$4 |
| Roy Halladay | No | Too many injury concerns |
These are not predictions for what these players will sign for – rather they are the point where Alderson should be interested. Obviously, he’s not going to sign a half dozen outfielders but there are that many who should be monitored. Pierzynksi as a backup catcher would be great but it seems likely he’ll get a starting gig somewhere.
If Choo signs a six-year, $130 million deal – no one should fault Alderson for passing on him. But if he signs for a contract in the ballpark of the one listed in the chart, it will be a shame if Alderson didn’t step to the plate – at least in my mind.
Generally, Alderson should be looking only at hitting. However, if there’s the mythical “innings eater” willing to sign a one-year deal then Alderson should be open to the opportunity as a Plan B if no impact OF or SS are available in free agency or the trade market. Colon looks like he’s willing to eat anything and seems much more willing to do a one-year deal than Arroyo. I’ve always had a soft spot for Jason Hammel but will not argue if anyone thinks that idea is insane.
Tanaka seems like he’s going to be a great addition for whatever team gets him. However, it’s hard to justify the Mets making the investment it would require given their organizational needs.
I’m all in for Choo and Ellsbury. As for Drew I don’t see that big a market for him. Boston doesn’t need him him if the Sox’s feel Bogarts is ready. Do a four for one for Tut’s and let Tejada compete for the second base job with Young and Flores. Assuming they’re not part of the package deal.
Morning, Brian.
I’m just waiting out the process until the end of December. I want to believe in Alderson. I really do, but 2014 isn’t going to be our year.
Hi Mack,
I just hope for measurable improvement.
Brian,
We all hope for measurable improvement, but it certainly seems that will border on impossible to do via the free agent market, considering Ellsbury signing for 7/$153 (after you and Tim Dierkes setting his value to the Mets at 3/$66) and Pierzinski signing for 1/$8.25 (vs. 1/$4) unless Wilpon & Son allow (or better yet, command) Alderson to open the vault and make sure he gets his men.
Drew is not signing for 3/$36 (I think 4/$52 may be required) but at least the trade market offers several viable alternatives. Granderson, who would be my primary FA target, will probably be more like 4/$72, and I can only hope that Sandy antes up. He may have to go trade for his slugging OF too. Colon may be his best option for a starter, but I would take the chance on Halliday with a low base, incentive laden deal. Also, if Arroyo would take 2/$24 with a 3rd year option, I’d grab him. That takes care of our primary needs. I’m wondering, though, what you think of the following third tier signings:
Ryan Webb, who was non tendered by the Marlins after a good year. He was also pretty goodd for San Diego during the DePodesta years. Do you think his 80.1 IP might have burned him out last year?
David Adams, a high OBP utility IF who had a cup of coffee with the Yankees last year. He’s had a good minor leasgue career, and he could be the Justin Turner alternative. Drawback is he doesn’t play short.
Would you consider a 2 year deal to either Daniel Hudson or Andrew Bailey, both of whom will not be ready until later in the season. We could offer something like $3.5 million with $750 K this year and $2.75 million in 2015, with incentives in both years.
I’m all for exploring the trade market.
Ryan Webb – Relievers are so volatile but we have no idea if that’s due to the small sample of innings that they pitch each year or if it’s because warming up and pitching three times a week for six months is more damaging than doing it once a week. Regardless, I like the approach that Alderson used last year, rather than the one he employed in 2012. Sign a bunch of veterans at low cost and one of them will likely come through. I’m hoping Aardsma comes back in 2014 but if he doesn’t, I’m confident Alderson will get somebody useful for the late innings.
David Adams – With guys like Satin and Lutz kicking around, I don’t see the point of grabbing a guy for the major league roster who can’t play SS. I imagine Alderson will sign someone like him with the idea of playing at Triple-A.
As for injury rehab guys — that’s a treadmill I want to get off. It was necessary three years ago but it’s not the case today with the depth of pitching in the system. At this point, I want to see what guys like JDG, Gorski and Goeddel can do rather than hope to catch lightning in a bottle with a guy who used to be good before he got hurt.
Alderson just cut a guy who pitched like a #2 SP for a dozen or so starts so he wouldn’t have to pay him an MLB salary. If the payroll situation is that bad, then they don’t need to offer contracts to guys we know won’t be ready for months.
I think it is too early to say it wont be the mets year in 2014. I think they sign Granderson, a back up C and a RH bullpen arm. And trade Ike and Murphy and get a shortstop. I also wouldnt be surprised if a package around Murphy and others for Ethier happens. They need a 3B in LA. With EY going to 2nd.
You really believe the Dodgers are going to move Murphy over to play third base? Sorry. I can’t even remotely picture that one. With limited fielding ability and lack of defensive skills why on earth would the Dodgers make that trade? You expect Murphy to play in the outfield grass at third base?
Murphy is actually a 3rd Baseman by trade and fields the position pretty decently
I actually think Napoli is an interesting option. It’s not like the Met’s current first basemen are tearing the league up… Ike looks like he could benefit from a chance of scenery. Duda well who knows…
Pricing on Ellsbury, Choo and Granderson are all fine in my book I’d sign up for signing 1… or even 2 of them at those prices.
I would not do Cruz or Beltran.
I would try offering Drew $10 Mil per. I’d not go higher.
Kendrys Morales might see his asking price go down because of that looming compensation. I like him a lot if he is willing to come to the Mets for an annual contract in the $10-12 Mil range.
I’d see what Maholm was looking for because frankly, I want NO part of Arroyo and Halladay is a too risky for the Met needs (unless he’s the second pitcher we’re signing)
Cross Pierzynski off the list — looks like he’s the new starting catcher in Boston
AJ and Wilson are near agreement with other teams. No to Beltran because of defense. No to Colon , too expensive and no to Hammel when there are Dice K like options available cheaper(?).
A big yes on Drew and and Granderson. Ellsbury and Choo at $22.5 per year is a little rich for me but a Pence 5/90 with a McCann like option year works. Though I would sign either based on your criteria.
I like the idea of shorter contracts and higher dollars but the trend has been longer years and teams budgeting in the “dead years” of the contract as part of the cost of doing business.
Granderson at 4/60 and Drew 4/48 look “reasonable” in this years market. The Mets need to spring Madoff from jail so that they can compete. 🙂
Everybody in the whole cell block, was dancin’ to the jailhouse rock.
Agree on a one-year starting pitcher (Colon), bringing up Montero, Syndergaard, and deGrom mid-year. Choo and Ellsbury would be fine, and I like Granderson as the power-hitting, cleanup LH hitter behind Wright? Drew at SS is needed, too. But I have a feeling there a trades coming…..
Where are you getting these numbers from? They are uniformly low across the Board? Nice compliation if we were in 2012.
Directly in the !@#$%^& article
These are not predictions for what these players will sign for – rather they are the point where Alderson should be interested.
I think Drew is going to be like last year’s Rafael Soriano who declined a qualifying offer from the Yankees and had to settle for a lot less. There are very few suitors for a shortstop this winter following the Cardinals signing Peralta. There are the Mets, and possibly the Twins and the Pirates. The Twins are obviously focused on pitching this winter plus a catcher, do they have enough money left for a SS? The Pirates are also cost-conscious and have a decent cheap option in Mercer. The Red Sox and Yankees are possibly interested, not as the guaranteed starting SS but rather as insurance policies for Jeter/Bogaerts. Are they likely to spend 30+ mil for that and would Drew want that kind of situation? With the draft pick compensation following him (and the fact that he’s not that great), I could see him struggle to get 25 mil and get something like 2/20.
As for the pitching market, it looks like most are waiting for the Tanaka situation to settle before something is likely to happen.
Also, the Mets should be interested in everyone at a certain price and for this exercise I think you should have done that.
I just took a look at Grandy’s HR spray chart from Yankee stadium, which is posted by Adam Rubin. By my count, 9 HR of his 63 bombs would not have cleared the fences at Citi, but 54 would have.
This does not take into account the wind and the wind streams that can occur in certain ballparks well as approach and mindset at the plate. If Grandy comes to Citi, will he be thinking about the long ball as much as he was while in Yankee stadium?
Of course he will. And I will also add that the majority of HR were well past the walls in citi. Would his HR production drop? Sure. Would it be superior to Duda and Ike and all other lefty’s we can put to the plate? By a mile.
But i’m saying you can’t just look at the dimensions and the final resting place of the HR and say, “That would also be a HR at another park” as the path and trajectory, as well as the wind streams and weather all matter when determining if it a HR. Case in point: Wrigley Field. If the wind is blowing in, the ball won’t travel as far and when the wind is blowing out it is HR derby. I don’t know enough about Yankee stadium or even Citi field to that matter to know where the ball can be affected most by the wind.
Hi Chris. I think Granderson’s home run production will not drop even though he’ll play 81 home games in Citifield. Nine games in the band box in Philly and Wrigley field could make up for whatever number of homers he loses at home.
I’m pretty sure Infante actually has played SS in the past (and not just one or two times in an emergency situation like Wright has done). His bat would be exponentially better than Tejada’s and I can’t imagine his fielding would be that much worse.
The most games he’s started at SS was 43 in 05. He hasn’t touched SS since 2010 and it was only 18 starts. He only played 2b last year and has only played 2 games at 3rd in 2012.
Not saying he couldn’t do it, but I don’t think anyone views him as a starting shortstop and going into his age 32 season and not having played there in 2 years is not the best time to ask in my opinion.
All good points. I did not realize it had been that long. You never know though. Chris young has not been a halfway decent outfielder in 2 years and the Mets are paying him $7.25MM to try to be one in 2014.
There has been an unusual flurry of activity involving second/third-tier players both in Free agency as well in the trade market. Usually everyone wait for the big fish or big bat to move before dealing with the second tier. I hope Sandy doesn’t miss out as realistically the second/third tier guys are the ones we should be looking at more than the top guys.
when you look at the players acquired … would you take them for the players we have to offer?
Would you trade a good 2B for a closer, someone that will inevitably cost you $10MM? No. Taking on Johnson, for perhaps Murphy, means you can’t sign a pitcher, or an outfielder. Not interested.
Would you trade your good utility 2B, your fifth best prospect, and a left handed relief pitcher prospect, for one year of ANY starter? I wouldn’t, but its because of where we are in the cycle. Fister is a good deal for the Nats, not the Mets.
More than ever, I’m intrigued by where the Rays are. That was a bodacious contract they absorbed for Bell, and they gave up some prospect that has Tower excited in Arizona. Trading Price mid season could refill the funnel, but I think they have a need to dump some salary to offset Bell … and I think the Mets might be the trading partner here.
It’s not that I like any of the deals or any of the players involved in the deals, but rather i’m concerned by the time that Sandy is ready to get working and do something, everyone else will be all set and we will have no one or very limited options to work with. I think he needs to recognize it and not try to wait to get the last minute deals as it looks like most stores will be closing early this year.
Who knows? Maybe i’m wrong and Sandy is feverishly working on something and it’s just that they are really good at keeping secrets, as there was not one rumor leading up to the Chris Young signing.
Don’t know if this changes your opinion on the Fister deal, but the Nats actually have 2 years of control on Fister and likely a compensation pick in 2016 if Fister continues what he is doing now. My Mets version of what the Nats gave up is: Turner, Edgin, Tapia.
Drew and Choo are still on the board. Big day today though. Too bad we couldn’t have gotten Fister for Turner, Vaughn and den Dekker.
News flash…we are getting rumors that Jacoby is getting ready to sign a seven year deal with the Yankees.
Are the Dodgers going to be willing to bail the Yankees out after next year?
Editor’s note: Comment deleted for violating Mets360 Comment Policy
The value on Pierzynski was as a backup catcher and he got paid to be a starter. The AAV on the proposed 3 year deal for Ellsbury was the same he got for seven (!) years. I’m thrilled that Alderson didn’t offer a 7-year deal to a guy who comes with that kind of injury risk.
Before the Winter Meetings even take place seems like an especially odd time to claim a team’s GM is “playing at looking busy.” It might very well be a valid criticism in two months but seems very premature right now.
I disagree. Progress is measured by the activity, not the calendar date. The world, as usual, is moving around Alderson, and rather than forcing the market he sit around and let’s the market define his actions. No surprise Billy Beane wins awards and Alderson sits in his ivory tower recalling days and markets of yesteryear. No worries though he flipped 7M$ on an outfielder that will perform about like his “signature” FA acquisition: Frank Frank.
Unfortunately we continue see the direct evidence that he was hired not to win games but to keep the infected claws of the Wilpon’s punctured deeply into this teams soul.
Didn’t he force the market by signing Chris Young when he did?
🙂
Chris you say inactivity. SA would say patience. You say progress and SA says 2015. The world isn’t moving around SA it’s passed him in the rear view mirror with the car stuck on neutral. We as Met fans get to eat the scraps and leftovers. While teams like the Twins and A’s actually use their additional revenue for the purpose it was intended for. A caretaker on the field and another one at GM. How are we supposed to have expectations when ownership doesn’t have one?
I am frustrated as everyone else here … but perhaps Pete, Jerry Grote and others should take a moment.
Go to ESPN and see who’s been signed. Sort the free agents by ranking …
The top Mets target is close to being signed.
We all wanted Peralta (I think), but before the Cards signed him Drew was actually higher ranked and not only is he still available, his market is shrinking as Name points out. What is the likelihood that the GM that waits out the SS trade makes the right decision?
Ellsbury is signed, and we never were in on that. I would have liked to be in on Fister, but there’s a bunch of GMs asking Dombrowski WTF? The rest of the trades, feh.
Here’s hoping.
This has been crazy.
Rumors are that Seattle is aggressively going after Kemp, which could take Ethier out of the picture.
I hope they get Granderson now, but Sandy better pull the trigger soon.
The Phillies signed 36 year old Wil Nieves to back up Carlos Ruiz.
It is rumored that they have approached the representatives of Dutch Daulton to see if he is available as well.
Editor’s note: Comment deleted for violating Mets360 Comment Policy
Ellsbury got a “bit” more than 3 years and 66 million. It’s really a seller’s market right now. Which is bad if you are a budget conscious team….
It is absolutely sickening that we are doing NOTHING. When we boldly made moves for elite players in the past, from Hernandez & Carter to Piazza to Beltran, Pedro and Delgado, we have won. Even when we made mistakes like Bonilla and Alomar & Vaughn and Bay, at least we took a shot. Our ownership is operating like a small market team and our GM has been shocked by the $$ free agents have been given over the past three years. Wake the F up Sandy. This isn’t 1987. The market dictates the value of these players. If you want to swim in the big boy pool, you have to pay. You can’t go to buy a car and when they tell you the price, say “cars were much less expensive when I was a kid. I guess I’ll just walk.” He’s made two great trades since taking over and that’s it. We could have and should have traded for Fister. Put him in the NL and at Citi and he’s an ace. He’s 29 and under contract for two more years. For as ridiculous has he often was, Omar took chances on difference-makers. We need to make a bold statement this winter and time and opportunities are running out quickly.
When the Mets made the move for Hernandez and Carter, they were as final pieces to what they had promoted from the farm system. Gooden, Darling, Backman, Dykstra, Strawberry. There’s no one available right now with the proven track record of Hernandez or Carter. It’s better that he waits until those guys do come available rather than “make a splash” by signing some imposter to a giant deal.
Sorry but Choo and Ellsbury are not imposters. They both have a proven track record and would be significant upgrades being able to contribute day in and day out. I still can’t believe the Yankees felt it necessary to sign Ellsbury for 7 years knowing what they just went through with C.C. and Tex. They add to the inflated salaries the players are getting. Boras must have something on Cashman(besides the mistress).
Perhaps imposter is the wrong word but you face a daunting task to argue that Choo or Ellsbury are as consistently good (and healthy) as Carter and Hernandez when the Mets acquired them.
I understand what your trying to say. The real imposters are on the other side of the fence. If the Mets don’t sign anyone worth the price of admission what are the Met fans going to do? I don’t care if they complain. Bitching and moaning is not going to produce a new ownership in Queens.
You are right. The question is whether or not you get enough punch for $22MM a year, to pay for Ells … especially since he needs to produce enough WAR at age 35, 35 and 37.
Biggest four contracts:
2012
Grienke, Hamilton, Sanchez, BJ Upton
2011
Pujols, Fielder, Reyes, Wilson (in case you forgot, that would be CJ, not Brian)
2010
Crawford, Werth, Lee, Beltre
2009
Holliday, Lackey, Bay, Figgins
2008
Tex, CC, Burnett, Lowe
Two players resigned with their teams, and they were not surprisingly the best signings. Holliday and Sanchez. Another interesting point, the top four signings are typically more than *all the other signings* in the offseason, or awfully close to it.
Ells and Cano are good players, fine defensively, and might buck the trend. But you’ve got probably more than $1,000,000,000,000 worth of risk in those four top picks since 2008, and out of 20 contracts maybe you have 2, 3 that have any value.
It’s a fool’s game.
Herb Arroyo at two years is still 24 million for an innings eater. You can wait him out now. Even though I would pass on him. Your generous offer of a third is unnecessary since you’re bidding against yourself. Signing Arroyo means no Granderson. 23 million left in the budget for a corner outfielder, shortstop, back-up catcher, bullpen.
To Jerry Grote. I can imagine the magic number Drew must be thinking of? Peralta 53 million discounted before asking prioe 75 for 5.I don’t think the Mets are even in the same zip code right now. Waiting to see how much a players rolls back his price is taking a big gamble. Small market teams are starting to play with the big boys and The Mets are going to wind up window shopping again this off season.
Pete … waiting out the market is dangerous. But sometimes, striking first as the Cards are going to find out … can be more so.
Jerry…. The Mets don’t have a choice in this matter. They have to wait and see what is leftover for them to pick. If the Mets had a payroll of 125 million dollars would SA be more aggressive? Perhaps targeting 1 or 2 impact players they so sorely lack? I don’t have an answer for that. But I will tell you one thing. This team is in desperate mode. If they lose out on Granderson then the only option is to trade for a corner outfielder. Which means parting with some of their pitching prospects. How many more 74-88 seasons are you willing to endure if the team does not try to improve itself? Window shopping and patience is fine if you have the financing available. The Mets are going to be left with an empty Christmas stocking with no one to blame but themselves. Unfortunately it’s the fans who suffer the consequences,
I like Feldman..I think he has some good seasons left. He’s gotten better with age.