The Mets signing of Curtis Granderson will cost them $60 million over the course of a four year contract. Additionally, and because Granderson was extended a qualifying offer by the Yankees, the Mets will forfeit a 2014 draft pick by signing him. The Mets finished with the 10th worst record in baseball last season, however, so they will forfeit their second-round pick rather than their first-round pick. It’s something the team has stated they would do for the “right player,” and evidently they deemed Granderson to be such a player.
The team still needs an upgrade at shortstop and realistically could still use an upgrade in left field (among other needs). These upgrades can be achieved either through trades or via free agency but each has their costs. The top free agent (FA) outfielders still on the market are Shin-Soo Choo and Nelson Cruz. The top FA shortstop is Stephen Drew. All three of these players come with varying costs in terms of contract demands, and all three were extended qualifying offers by their teams. This means that the Mets would have to give up their third-round pick to sign any one of them. While the team has stated publicly that giving up draft picks wouldn’t deter them, it seems unlikely that the team would give up both their second and third-round picks in the same offseason. Is that the right decision, though?
Analysis of the value provided by third-round selections dating back to 1965, the first year of Major League Baseball’s first-year player draft, shows that MLB teams as an aggregate have received an average of about 5 career bWAR per player selected in the third round that made it to the majors. That’s an incredibly low amount but demonstrates just how much of a crapshoot the draft really is, especially after the first 10 to 15 picks. The Mets third-round selections have performed below the average with 3.5 bWAR per player, with their top performances coming from Joe Smith (7.3), Rick Aguilera (22.4), Roger McDowell (10.6), and Craig Swan (12.7).
The signings of Granderson and Chris Young provide a marked improvement over the Mets starting outfield going into the 2013 season. While an additional upgrade would be ideal, it’s not as much of an issue as it was just a couple of weeks ago. As a result, and because of their contract demands, it’s unlikely that the Mets sign Choo or Cruz. That leaves Drew as the only other significant signing the Mets could realistically make outside of a starting pitcher.
So what will Drew cost? The contract predictions for Drew have ranged from $40 to $60 million over the course of a four year contract. At $60 million the Mets should steer clear, but at $10 million per year the Mets should at least be thinking hard about it. The fact that the team that ultimately signs him will have to give up a draft pick could aid in negotiations.
Should the Mets give up their third-round pick to sign him, though? Drew has accumulated 16.1 bWAR in his career and 3.1 in 2013. He’s also a good bet to give you more than the 5 bWAR averaged by third-rounders over the course of the contract. In fact, it’s likely that whomever the Mets select in the third round of the 2014 draft will never reach the majors at all.
Assuming Drew can be had for a somewhat reasonable contract, signing him would really only cost the Mets money. In contrast, the Mets would have to give up valuable prospects to obtain one of the shortstops available in a trade. Would you rather give up one or more prospects with established value or a completely unknown and likely non-contributing third-rounder? That question, of course, depends on Drew’s price versus the price of those available shortstops in terms of prospects. Giving up their third-round pick should not be a significant factor, though.
What do you think?
Yes of course. Who really cares about the 3rd round draft at this point. Our first round drafts leave quite a bit to be desired. If it gets us a MLB-level SS then do it.
If anyone is curious, the team with the highest bWAR per player is the Nationals/Expos, with 13.5. At the top of their list is Gary Carter (69.8), Marquis Grissom (29.5), Scott Sanderson (28.1), and Grady Sizemore (27.6)
Drew has missed a lot of games the last few seasons and is over 30.Still would be an upgrade for them.
The Mets allegedly have $12M left in the budget. Drew at 4/48 works for me.
If the Mets want to free up more money then do a salary dump of Davis for prospects and save $3.5M. Add a salary dump of Murphy for a prospect or two (like Pederson?) and save another $5.5M to apply to the innings eater Sandy covets (but I don’t). Murphy to the Yanks for Gardener could upgrade the OF and give the Mets a leadoff hitter also.
There are many good ways to keep improving this team and Drew for a reasonable price and 3rd round pick shouldn’t stop Sandy.
I’d do Drew for 52/4 and the hell with losing a 3rd round pick…I’d also take Murphy off the tradng block..get what you can for Duda and give Ike one more chance…that would make me very happy…
There are better options than Drew in my opinion- not Tejada or Tovar- but much better. Here’s some options: Brad Miller, Tim Beckham, Nick Franklin (yes I know he is a 2B), and Emilio Bonifacio.
I don’t agree that those players are “much better” options, at least not at this point in their careers. The point was those players will most likely cost more in terms of prospect value than what the Mets would get from any third-rounder, though. That being said, if they can secure a “shortstop of the future” via reasonable trade then I’m obviously all for it.
How many Mets third round picks are playing in the majors today?
Joe Smith, and I guess you could count Kirk Nieuwenhuis if you want to be generous.
Peralta wanted 15 million for 5 years but gave the Cardinals a discount at 53 million. So is Drew’s agent planning on giving any team a discount when he’s next in line for a big paycheck? I doubt it. Yes the market for Drew is dwindling but he can wait for a team who will want to upgrade their situation.
I took a look at every recent team’s 3rd rounds pick and these are the best I found.
08: Kimbrel, Espinosa, Jordy Mercer
09: Joe Kelly(cards), kyle seager(sea), Wil Myers
10: Addison Reed
11: Tony Cigrani(Reds)
So clearly a 3rd round pick should not be a deterrent to signing a major leaguer. I know it’s never going to happen, but if Sandy can convince Drew and ownership to take a higher valued 1 year deal, maybe like 1/16, we could offer him arbitration after next year (assuming he doesn’t bomb) and actually turn our 3rd round pick into a 1st round comp pick next year. Then again it may not be worth it as Alderson hasn’t shown he can do anything with draft picks.
I’ve given this a bit of thought, and yet I’m writing extemporaneously on this so let’s see if I can communicate it well.
First off, you can’t use years drafted after 2008; these are third round players and they simply haven’t had the time to show themselves. Second, looking at players from 2005 to 2008, you’ll find that about 40% of all players actually make it to the bigs.
Already, the average WAR of players for the time frame from 2005-2008 is a total of 60, or 15 per year. When you look back further (2000-2004) you find that the third round delivers closer to 35 to 40 WAR. Players through this time period have delivered roughly 1.5 to 2 WAR; and teams have a 40-50% shot at that value.
So I would value the third round pick at roughly .8 WAR.
Now consider a free agent like Drew. He faces the headwind already of being overpriced as a free agent and now he needs to deliver nearly a full win more than any other player. Mind you, this is only for the Mets.
If Drew signs a three year deal (hardly locked in stone; his only current suitor is offering two) at his current projected valuation – he will deliver 6 WAR. But .8 is a huge number against a three year deal and against a two year deal it would require him to outperform his projections by 20%.
There is no strong reason to offer Steve Drew a contract, unless you are paying him substantially under market valuation.
AND This is why the signing of Jhonny Peralta should have been prioritized over Granderson. And not by a little bit. 2nd round picks deliver three to four times the average WAR of a third, and a team is nearly 50% likely to cash in.
Peralta faced no headwind. He should have been signed at nearly any cost; and almost certainly he was worth $10M *more to the Mets* than he was to the Cardinals. But more than that, not signing Peralta means that you cannot reasonably sign Drew, *and* you overpaid for Granderson (given that his valuation went down by 50% of 5 WAR).
I agree that some of the later rounds are too early to judge as the prospects need more time. But it does show that on average a 3rd round pick takes a long time to develop and a low chance that it does. Realistically speaking, our 2014 3rd round pick has less than a 10% chance of having done something by 2020- 1 year after Harvey is eligible for Free Agency.
I also see a flaw in your analysis. You didn’t average by total number of picks or by years. I redid it from 05 to 08 and here is what I got.
05:
Total WAR: 26.1; Avg per pick: 0.87; Avg over 8 years: 0.109
Significant players(1): Brett Gardner
Useful Players(3): Micah Owings, Brian Duensing, Jensen Lewis
Made it to MLB(9): Bryan Morris, Tommy Manzella, Chris Robinson, Matt Maloney, Josh Geer, Taylor Teagarden, Vin Mazzaro, Sean O’Sullivan, Jordan Schafer
06:
Total WAR: 11.1; Avg per pick: 0.37; Avg over 7 years: 0.053
Significant players(1): Joe Smith
Useful Players(3):Brennan Boesch, Zach Britton, Jason Donald
Made it to MLB(8): Blake Wood, Aaron Bates, Chris Valaika, Cole Gillaspie, Cedric Hunter, Scott Cousins, Tyler Robertson, Zach McAllister
07:
Total WAR: 8; Avg per pick: .267; Avg over 6 years: 0.044
Significant players(1): Jonathan Lucroy
Useful players(2):Danny Duffy, Daniel Descalso
Made it to MLB(6): Brandon Hicks, Neftali Soto, Evan Reed, John Ely, Sam Demel, Luke Putkomen
08:
Total WAR: 19.5; Avg per pick(35): .557; Avg over 5 years: .111
Significant players(4): Danny Espinosa, Craig Kimbrel, Vance Worley, Jordy Mercer
Useful players(4): Stephen Fife, Brent Morel, Logan Schafer, Jonathan Pettibone
Made it to MLB(10): LJ Hoes, Roger Kieschnick, Edgar Olmos, Zach Stewart, Chris Carpenter, Kirk Niewenhuis, Blake Tekotte, David Adams, Cord Phelps, Kyle Weiland
So I would value a 3rd round pick is around .5 WAR if you use this method. But I believe this number is too high as 60% of picks never reach the majors, 25% make it (and often are worth negative WAR). 10% are solid contributors, and just 5% become good players-and these guys often are responsible for 70-100%+ of the year’s total WAR (case in point 2007 where total WAR is 8 and Lucroy has delivered 8.1 WAR!)
So instead of valuing based on WAR, I would probably base it off percentages. By giving up on a 3rd round pick, you are giving up a 1 in 20 shot at a really good player and 1 in 10 shot chance at an useful player. Those are chances I would easily give up for the right player at the right price.
This will probably be a moot point shortly. If we could get Drew for 4/$40 or even 4/$44 we should grab him and forfiet the 3rd rounder. But I’m almost positive that his price won’t come down to that level unless he is still unsigned in January, and I can’t see Sandy waiting that long to pull the trigger on a shortstop deal. When he is a seller (e.g. with Dickey, Byrd and Beltran) he has the luxury of waiting for the market to come to him. Now he is a buyer, and I believe he will make every effort to leave Orlando with his shortstop in hand.
I cant see Boras letting Drew go for 10-11M AAV, although 4 years might raise his eyebrows.
No other team is offering Drew even a three year contract.
Who would want Steve Drew? The Yankees, supposedly. Perhaps the Dodgers, Twins or Marlins but they would have to give up a 1st, 2nd or 2nd round pick. The team most interested in Steve Drew is the Red Sox and word has it that the offer is 2 years. Of course, the Red Sox lose no draft pick for signing Drew.
Drew simply isn’t worth signing to *any team other than the Red Sox*. And Drew almost certainly will not get four years from any team.
So jerry Grote do you see Tejada as the opening day shortstop for this team?
I’d say the odds are around 80% Tejada starts; 10% Tovar starts.
There’s a 10% shot that we make a run at Drew, but that’s only if Boston the Red Sox find a taker for Wil Middlebrooks … and I don’t think they’ll have to look really hard for someone to make that deal.
From a game-theory position, the Mets need to close out the market for a third baseman by trading Murphy to the last remaining teams that need one. That closes out the Red Sox ability to trade Wil Middlebrooks and reduces their likelihood to sign him.
Then, perhaps *perhaps* Drew will fall enough to make the deal palatable; like 3/28 or so.
I heard the only team to make an offer were the Red Sox’s 2 for 20 million. I thivk SA will wait it out and see if and when the price comes down.
I vote Yes for Drew..but word on the street is Boston is gonna give him the money and years he seeks