John Sickels of Minor League Ball released yesterday his Top 20 Mets Prospects list, found here. There are few surprises up top, though he seems to be more bullish on Brandon Nimmo and Gavin Cecchini than some.
Perhaps the most controversial ranking on the list is Steven Matz at number 14, who Sickels ranks as a C+. I would have imagined Matz being a B-, but considering the level he played at (A-) and all of the injuries he’s sustained, it’s not like he was robbed or anything.
Money quote from Sickels:
“Thanks to trades, improved drafting, and the quietly efficient Latin American pitching program, the Mets have a huge amount of depth in C+/C prospects, especially on the mound. … In those terms this is one of the stronger farm systems in the National League: the raw material for a really nice pitching staff is here and there is talent at all levels.”
Sickels goes on to mention that in addition to the depth, there is talent in Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero, and that some of the pitchers he ranked as C/C+ have breakout potential, but are too far off to earn a higher ranking.
He also noted the obvious: that while the pitching depth is fantastic, the system lacks hitters, and needs to add some to be considered a truly elite farm system.
Minor spoiler alert – Dropping off last year’s Top 20 (for a variety of reasons) are: Zack Wheeler (1), Jeurys Familia (6), Luis Mateo (7), Domingo Tapia (11), Matt denDekker (15), Cory Vaughn (16), Logan Verrett (17), Jack Leathersich (18), Danny Muno (19), Phillip Evans (20).
There was a lot of change in the bottom of the rankings, and the C+ graded Robert Gsellman and Leathersich both got squeezed out in the a numbers game.
Other notables to not make the list: Matthew Bowman, Jayce Boyd, Juan Centeno, Rainy Lara, L.J. Mazzilli, Wilfredo Tovar and Jeff Walters.
Sickels is my favorite minor league analyst and I’ve purchased his book every year since 2001, when he was still with ESPN. He was gracious enough to come on our podcast and was a very good guest.
Having said all of that, I don’t like this list.
Puello, Matz, Herrera and Fulmer all seem too low and Plawecki, Flores, Rosario and Cecchini seem too high.
Good list. Just I am not sold on Nimmo yet. 3 years and not a lot of progress.
Outside of our top couple guys there doesn’t seem to be a lot of consensus regarding the Mets farm from multiple sources. Does that raise any concern about depth or is that simply a case of one opinion/projection versus another?
I’d say it means the exact opposite – that we have very good depth.
Yeah I could understand that. One report likes one guy, while another report likes another. I guess as long as everyone is getting liked so darn much, it can only be positive. I like that spin.
I agree with Brian in that Sickels is my favorite MiLB analyst. I like his list overall, though. Number 4-13 are all B- or borderline B-, so really I think it’s a matter of preference how you sort them for the most part.
Good to see Dom Smith getting so much praise this year. Could be a real difference maker for the team, if still pretty far off.