Note: This is a continuing short series comparing (at a high level) where the Mets roster stood last year at this time and where it stands heading into Spring Training 2014.
We’re quickly approaching the reporting date for pitchers and catchers and the start of baseball for 2014. The off-season may not have gone as well for the Mets as some would have liked. It also may have gone better than some would have expected. That’s baseball, for you. Although the off-season is not over and the Mets will continue to make small additions to the roster, the big moves are likely in the rear-view at this point. So where does the team stand as compared to this time last year?
This week we discuss the bullpen.
The bullpen is generally the most volatile component of a major league baseball roster. Beyond a few elite pitchers, it’s pretty difficult to predict how well relievers will perform from one year to the next. As such, it’s a tough task to put together a bullpen every year when there’s so much roster churn due to bad performances and rising prices. Sandy Alderson has repeatedly chosen to go the route of signing many low-cost relievers to minor league deals and hoping that some of them stick. It’s not necessarily a bad way to build a bullpen. It actually seems a like great option when considering that the relievers he’s signed to larger contracts have been utter disasters.
Spring Training 2013 was a perfect example of this bullpen-building philosophy and saw no fewer than 15 relievers looking to head north with the team. Some, like Bobby Parnell and Jeremy Hefner, were virtual locks to make it. Others, like Cory Mazzoni and Darin Gorski, really had no shot but were given a chance nonetheless. The bullpen picture became clearer as Spring Training wore on, though the final couple of spots weren’t solidified until close to Opening Day.
The final version of the Mets’ 2013 bullpen was a mix of youngsters and veterans, as is generally the case. Although it was certainly nothing to write home about, it was bound to be better than the nightmare that was the 2012 bullpen, right?
Sure it was better, but it wasn’t all that good. Their 3.98 ERA landed them in the bottom third in baseball. Their 4.02 FIP was amazingly close to their ERA, but was the fourth worst in the league. They were also dead last in K/9 at 6.96.
It wasn’t all bad, though. They were in the top half in BB/9, league average in save percentage, and were top ten in inherited score percentage (IS%). IS% is the percentage of runners on base when a reliever entered the game that ultimately scored. It’s an interesting statistic and pretty surprising to see that the Mets’ bullpen had an IS% of 26%*. That was just 4% higher than the Cardinals had at number one.
The situation heading into 2014 is no different than in years past. Several players are locks to make the team, while the final few spots are up for grabs. As a testament to the aforementioned and typical bullpen churn, four of the relievers that broke camp with the team in 2013 are no longer on the roster.
There definitely appears to be a smaller pool of candidates than last year as well. Unless the Mets sign another veteran (which is likely), the bullpen will most likely consistent of some mix of Parnell, Vic Black, Jeurys Familia, Gonzalez Germen, Ryan Reid, Scott Rice, Josh Edgin, Joel Carreno, and Carlos Torres. There’s a lot of young power there, which will be exciting to see.
Of course the bullpen will evolve and change over the course of the season. The Mets had over 20 pitchers throw in relief at some point in 2013, and there’s no reason to believe that 2014 will be any different. There are quite a few intriguing relief prospects that have a good shot at seeing action in the big league bullpen this season. You’ll most likely either see or hear about prospects like Mazzoni, Adam Kolarek, Jack Leathersich, Jeff Walters, Jacob deGrom, and Jeff Walters at some point in 2014.
The Mets’ 2014 bullpen will sink or swim with their youngsters, which should make it all that more interesting to watch. You just never know with those relievers.
* Of the Mets relievers that inherited 15 or more runners, David Aardsma‘s 0% IS% was tops, followed by Pedro Feliciano at 5%. The worst offenders were Brandon Lyon (44%), Scott Atchison (40%), Greg Burke (40%), and LaTroy Hawkins (39%). None of these pitchers are on the 2014 roster.
Hey Rob,
Great work! The IS% numbers on Aardsma and Hawkins are a real surprise.
Add Farnsworth to the mix. He’s been more unreliable than reliable in his career, and hasn’t been good in the last 2 years, but we’ll see.
Familia has the chance to be a huge piece of this bullpen if his control improves. Perhaps a Familia, Black, Parnell 7th, 8th and 9th by the end of the year. Wishful thinking maybe.