Introduction to the 2014 Amateur Player Draft and Three Players the Mets Might Look to Draft
Relevant details:
Date: June 5th-7th, 2014
Location: MLB Studio 42, Secaucus, New Jersey
Media: MLB Network will cover the draft
Mets select: #10, miss a second round pick for signing Curtis Granderson, pick regularly between the Blue Jays and Brewers every round 3-40
Consensus #1 pick as of 2/19/14- LHP Carlos Rodon- NC State
Consensus Mets pick as of 2/19/14- None
Many experts predict the 2014 Rule IV amateur player draft will be one of the deepest in recent memory and contain a well above average level of talent relative to other draft classes of this decade.
The true prize of the draft will likely go to the Astros as Carlos Rodon has placed himself atop mock drafts for over a year now. Rodon is big, strong, durable, has five pitches, and dominates will all of them. Think lefty Stephen Strasburg. Once drafted, he will instantly become a top-10 prospect in all of baseball short of an injury or regression in 2014.
The New York Mets do not have a clear pick at #10 this early in the year and there will be too much movement in the coming months to predict a selection with any confidence. Here are three players the Mets could target, given their average rank, the tendencies of the Mets draft strategy over the past three years, and scouts’ reports:
1.) Michael Gettys- OF- Gainesville High School
Positives: Gettys is a fast-twitch burner who should be a very good defender at every level. The speed and glove are already plus and he demonstrates some pop and strength at the plate. Same profile as Mets 2012 first round selection Gavin Cecchini in regards to an incredible work ethic and athleticism. One of the best arms from the outfield in the draft…possibly the single best. Hit 100 MPH from the outfield in a scouting showcase late last year. Draft guru Matt Garrioch claims he would be a top-100 prospect as a pitcher if he were any lesser of an outfield prospect.
Negatives: There are concerns about Gettys’ ability to hit breaking pitches and/or pitchers who disguise or hide the ball well, or otherwise throw a hitter off. Some overall concerns about his offensive profile against tougher pitching. As far as this goes as a negative, one would think he could work through it and be a very solid prospect for whichever team drafts him. He draws comparisons to a top-10 pick from 2013 Clint Frazier, although some scouts like him even better.
2.) Sean Newcomb- LHP- Hartford
Positives: Big, strong, durable pitcher with a good fastball and a promising slider. Anytime a 6’5”, 240 lb. southpaw who can run it up to the mid 90s (or maybe even a touch more) with at least one other promising pitch comes around, teams notice. Some call the slider a cutter and it generally receives praise. Also throws a curve and a change, occasionally. Sound mechanics. While it is tough to say a pitcher will not get hurt, few say Newcomb puts his arm under any unnecessary strain or looks to be an injury concern going forwards.
Negatives: As a cold weather pitcher, it will be tough for scouting teams to figure out just what exactly they have with Newcomb. While numbers mean little while examining an amateur player, Newcomb does have a high walk rate and struggled a bit in the Cape Cod league. He strikes a lot of batters out but he also does walk quite a few and gets hit around from time to time. There should be little worry over his college numbers (look at Harvey’s sophomore year) but lowering the walk rate goes a long way for his outlook.
Newcomb being a cold weather pitcher, something Sandy and his team seem to not shy away from (cf: Nimmo, Brandon), could actually make him a steal in the draft. A few years ago much of the attention at the top of the draft was about a warm weather outfielder named Donovan Tate who ended up being drafted third overall. Deeper in the first round, a cold weather outfielder with every bit the tool set fell to #25 named Mike Trout. Trout has turned into quite a major leaguer and Tate is still in the minors. This is not to say that Newcomb will be a Trout, nor that Rodon will be a Tate (very unlikely, actually). Newcomb, however, could be well undervalued because he plays in a cold climate and Rodon overshadows him and will up until and through draft day. This seems like the type of draft choice the Mets draft gurus like and while they will not draft for position, having a left-handed starting pitcher in the minors would balance out a right-heavy system nicely.
3.) Touki Toussaint- RHP- Coral Springs High School
Positives: Electric fastball. Devastating curveball. Movement on both pitches. Velocity. Athletic. Projectable. High-impact.
Negatives: Young. High risk. Young to baseball (started just five years ago). Can be wild. Needs to control all pitches better. Changeup needs more reps.
You cannot teach arm strength like this. The curve is devastating and is one of the top single pitches of any pitches thrown by the many good arms in the draft. Toussaint could very easily end up being the best pitcher—or player overall—in the 2014 draft. He could also end up being a reliever who walks too many. The GM that drafts him will draft this Haitian youngster as a lottery ticket of sorts. The scouting team that believes Toussaint can command his pitches, repeat his delivery, and stay healthy will take him and dream of a front-line starter. If he does reach his potential, this is the steal of the draft, even if he is selected in the top 10. The fastball-curve combination is frighteningly good and Toussaint complements them with a cutter and a change that he uses sparingly. His prowess as a young soccer player aids his athleticism and the movement on his pitches will make him tough to hit—even if he is wild and cannot find a third pitch. Many will mock Alderson and his team for taking another right-handed pitcher as it is the true strength in the Mets farm system and one of the deepest set of RHPs in the minors. However, if Sandy finds Toussaint available at #10 and believes in his raw potential, he could end up with the single best player in the draft.
Best guess for the Mets #10 pick as it stands now on 2/19/2014: OF Michael Gettys.
Follow me on Twitter (Stephen Guilbert @guilbs88) and ask any draft, prospect, or baseball-related question you would like.
Nice addition to your website… great writer
Thanks, Mack. If you ever want to do a cross-q&a closer to draft day, let me know. I’d like to know your thoughts on some players as well.
Great article! Do you slightly favor the Mets taking Gettys, since they are short on outfielders in their system?
Not at all. With the #10 pick, I do believe they will go with the player they see as the best on the board. If that’s a high school righty…something we seemingly don’t “need”, they’ll do it. Remember the high school talent is likely 4-5 years off and the college guys 2-3 if not more. A lot changes in that time. Taking the best talent you can early in the draft gives you the best system you can have and that’s the ultimate goal.
I agree with this article and I have been on these three for our pick for a months now,I truly believe we should get one of these guys for the tenth pick,I want to see Getty hitting curves balls before I commit to him and I think Touki is a potential Gooden clone so I am extremely high on him his curve ball is awesome and so is his fastball just like Dwight was.Newcomb is the sahest pick here too but I go for the fences in Touki or Getty.
We’ll cover some other players next week. You’ll have to tell me your thoughts on those guys. Stay tuned.
The Mets have used upper draft picks on high school talent since Sandy has come to town. Some experts suggested that was an appropriate strategy while the team was so far away from contention.
Does the author believe this will impact choices going forward? Will Sandy be more prone to selecting the most ML ready talent, as opposed to upside high schoolers?
And that being said, from an organizational standpoint … do we continue to stockpile to strength (pitching), or would it wiser to diversify to the other eight positions?
Jerry, thanks for the excellent questions. I will try to answer them the best I can:
High school talent/vs. college: I honestly believe that Sandy, J.P. Paul and their team have a large white board with thousands of names. At the top is probably Carlos Rodon. Astros take him. They go to the next. Now, say, their next name is Toussaint and the next eight teams pass on him. They’re going to take him. They will take the best player available regardless of position, age, or where they play.
Now, if they have two comparable players on their board and one is a college shortstop and the other a high school pitcher, I do believe they will choose the college shortstop. You do not draft for need early in the draft but if it’s the last thing to consider, yea I do think they’ll go with a college position player over a high school arm if it’s a tight race between two players.
As for stockpiling arms, honestly, yes i really do think they’ll continue to do that. Looking at the past couple drafts: Church, Meisner, Whalen, Flexen..they’ve gotten some really promising arms in the rounds 3-10 area. Even if one of them comes close to their ceiling, it goes a long way towards maintaining the depth of pitching in the system. I see no reason this will change. Of the 39 picks we’ll have, I believe it will be close to a 50-50 pitcher/position player split but they will not shy away from a high-impact arm if it’s available.
All of this is to say..I have no idea who they’re looking at for the first pick. As you see above, I have a college lefty, a high school righty, and an outfielder. They surprised me last year taking a high school first baseman but it was a great pick. We’ll have to see who’s on the board next year and trust that they did take the BPA.
Thanks for the questions.
This is sort of an additional question to Jerry’s.
The Mets in the 2 years since the new drafts rules were implemented have gone underslot in their top picks in order to overslot in the later picks. In 2013, the first 5 picks were all underslotted, while the majority of the rest were overslotted. In 2012, the first 8 picks were underslotted, with some significant overslots in the later rounds.
Since you’re new on here, i’d like to know what you think of this strategy (I think most of here don’t really like it but i don’t want to speak for others), and whether you think this will impact choices going forward?
PS. To be fair to Sandy, in 2013 only 2 picks in the top30 signed for overslot and 10 signed for underslot. In 2012 it was 15 underslots and 5 overslots in the top30.
Slot allocation is a tricky beast under the new CBA and honestly I do not have an idea of what the best strategy is yet. The Royals did something really interesting last year which takes what you mention about Sandy to an extreme. They signed a very good player early in the draft who should have been 20-30 picks lower, signed him for well under slot, and used their second pick on Sean Manaea, a risky lefty but who was once a top 5 guy on the boards. This means they got two really good players. Could they have done this the other way around? Maybe. Tough to tell. Jon Daniels has also had successful drafts, in my opinion.
The strategy for Sandy and company is not as consistent as it appears. He didn’t save nearly as much money on Cecchini but saved more on Smith than I thought he would. He might be doing what you suggest but he also might have these guys as his favorite players on the board and gotten them for less. There’s no way to know. He does like making a couple bold runs at good players late in the draft, offering them 3rd round money, and hoping they sign. It’s worked a couple times but I notice that most teams do this as well–unless they’ve gone way over early on day one. The ubiquitous problem has been…if you do not sign that player late in the draft, you just end up not using funds to the best of their ability.
Another thing to watch out for this year which I find key: Will the Mets go over slot on average and pay the penalty? They have not any of the three years since Alderson took over. I know the Mets would never dream about forfeiting a draft pick but if the team’s financials are truly improving, I see no reason they should not go over slot to get the players they want and pay the tax. I believe they can go up to 5% over before surrendering a pick in the following year’s draft (with a 75% overage tax, if I remember correctly). I’m still waiting on the updated pool figures but the Mets should have something like 6 million to spend on the draft. 5% gives you an additional $300,000 to play with. That’s a “third round talent but my demands are high so I’m still around in the 20th) sort of talent that can net you a really really good player late in the draft.
To answer your question, I think the Mets will continue to try to get the best player available in the first round regardless of bonus demands (within reason), but the big change will be not minding going a bit over total pool. I can’t see a Lance McCullers falling past them again because of bonus demands (although Plawecki has looked very good as a pro).
I apologize for the long response. I frankly do not know how I would handle a draft with the bonus money. It’s risky..you want to sign every player and you want the best player available in each slot. Really tough to do both. I also don’t want to sign a third-round talent in the first round for 100k then get a bunch of 3rd and 4th round guys for the next seven or eight rounds. The talent in this draft–especially at the top–is way too good to skip on the best player available. Unless they make a silly pick at #10, they’ll get a blue chip prospect again this year.
Also, one note on their “strategy”: I do think their team looks for players who they find undervalued by the rest of the league. Despite thinking that BABIP and on-base percentage and not stealing are the foundations of Moneyball, in fact it’s much more simple..finding value where others don’t. If you look at Beane’s drafts, he took patient power hitters and control pitchers from the college ranks for years. I mean years (like 15) before the “market” discovered their value. What does he do in 2012? Takes a high school shortstop that no one had nearly as high on their board and the kid is now a top-10 to top-20 prospect in all of baseball (Addison Russell).
So while toolsy, raw high schoolers might be the theme for the first three drafts under Sandy, I wouldn’t say with any confidence that we’ll see if for a fourth year. Could happen, but I just think they have a big list of names and whichever is still at the top by the time they pick will be our newest addition to the Mets community.
Thanks for reading, everyone. I appreciate the comments and questions.