In 2011, Jose Reyes led the league in batting for the Mets and was with another team the next year. In 2012, R.A. Dickey led the league in strikeouts and the next year he was on another team. In 2013, Eric Young Jr. led the league in stolen bases. While he will likely open the year with the Mets, it’s anyone’s guess what his role will be on the club.
Following the 2013 season, the Mets acquired outfielders Chris Young and Curtis Granderson. When they did not trade second baseman Daniel Murphy, it seemed like Young Jr. would be relegated to fourth outfielder status. But then manager Terry Collins indicated that Young Jr. was his preferred option to be the team’s leadoff hitter and now no one knows what to expect.
It’s fun to watch a speedy guy run the bases and Young Jr. is no different. He gave the club a different dimension and every time he got on base he was a threat to put himself in scoring position. The rub was he just wasn’t very good at getting on base. The old baseball wisdom is that you can’t steal first base and Young Jr.’s .318 OBP ranked eighth among the 12 guys on the team to amass at least 200 PA last year.
The polar opposite of Young Jr. would be Lucas Duda, a big slow guy. Duda came to the plate 34 fewer times than Young Jr. yet scored just six fewer runs because he was better at getting on base. We all recall the times when Young Jr. seemingly scored a run by himself. But his electricity on the basepaths does no good if he’s sitting in the dugout after another weak groundout.
In 425 PA in the 2011-12 seasons, Young Jr. had a .358 OBP, 40 points higher than what he did last year. So, if he gets the playing time this year what will he do? Here’s what we predict:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIs | SB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferguson | 350 | .265 | .349 | .360 | 1 | 30 | 30 |
| Flattery | 440 | .270 | .345 | .374 | 4 | 32 | 28 |
| Hangley | 382 | .257 | .312 | .381 | 6 | 41 | 22 |
| Joura | 290 | .250 | .333 | .350 | 2 | 22 | 25 |
| Koehler | 375 | .248 | .320 | .330 | 1 | 21 | 30 |
| Manners | 430 | .240 | .310 | .330 | 2 | 30 | 30 |
| McCarthy | 414 | .274 | .334 | .378 | 3 | 31 | 32 |
| O’Malley | 576 | .267 | .330 | .356 | 3 | 34 | 41 |
| Parker | 250 | .230 | .310 | .325 | 0 | 20 | 15 |
| Vasile | 250 | .267 | .322 | .368 | 2 | 25 | 19 |
| Walendin | 384 | .247 | .301 | .335 | 3 | 29 | 33 |
Interestingly, not one of us thinks he can match the .358 OBP he put up over the two seasons prior to joining the Mets. Yet four of us think he’ll get over 400 PA, enough to be way more than a traditional fourth outfielder. Jim O’Malley thinks he’ll get the most playing time and sees another 40-SB season for him. Doug Parker thinks he’ll get less than half the playing time and post just a .635 OPS when he does play. The majority of us are closer to Doug’s point of view.
Here’s what the group forecasts for Young Jr. in 2014:
Before Collins indicated that he was in Young Jr.’s corner, we projected 496 PA and a .680 OPS for Juan Lagares and 512 PA and a .738 OPS for Young. Now we think Young Jr. will get 376 PA and a .678 OPS. Actually, 1,384 PA isn’t a bad total for two outfield spots, if these three make up the vast majority of playing time. Perhaps the question is if Collins will be satisfied with 872 PA of roughly a .680 OPS from Lagares and Young Jr.
It certainly could work. If Lagares is as good defensively as he was a year ago, he’ll still be an asset. And if the Mets get more from catcher, first base and shortstop than they did in 2013, it would make carrying Young Jr. easier, too.
Collins has gotten a free pass from nearly everyone because of a belief that he couldn’t be judged on his record as he simply didn’t have the horses. Now Sandy Alderson is telling ownership that the Mets have the talent to win 90 games. Collins’ bosses think this team has the horses. It will be interesting if Collins changes how he rides his players this year with these new expectations.
Given his druthers, a jockey would prefer to ride a fast horse. Perhaps that’s why Collins has been so public in his support of Young Jr. How Collins handles the outfield and how Young Jr. responds when he gets playing time will be two of the key storylines in the early months of the 2014 season.
Check back Monday for our next entry in the projection series.
Four men for three jobs, what a problem. Unfortunately 3 of them might not even be good ML players. And even if they are is having four really a problem? Let’s not give anyone a job let them compete and hopefully 3 of them are average or better ML outfielders.
If all four think they should be starting every day and one starts sulking when he doesn’t — then it’s absolutely a problem.
If all four think they should be starting and the worst of the bunch gets more PT than he should — then it’s absolutely a problem.
Not knowing the egos of the players or how Collins plans to use them, it’s hard to say if it will be a problem. But I think it’s silly not to imagine this being a potentially dangerous situation.
Seems to me C. Young was brought in to push EY and Lagares, the same way Lannan & Dice-K were brought in to push Mejia. After all, C. Young is only here for one year, barring an extension.
I’m not used to being the outlier on these projections…..
OBP is vastly overrated. Look at Murphy’s runs scored. That’s what matters.
Agreed Stephen, mostly. There are only two offensive stats that truly matter, who scored the run, and who drove that run in. Everything else is just icing on the cake. Of that icing though, OBP is pretty relevant.
OBP is valid, but has to be considered in the right context. Murphy is an excellent example, as Patrick says, because he hits for extra base power and drives in runs, something walks don’t result in. Murphy’s SBs help him score more runs too. Stats need to be addressed among other stats, becasue IMO one stat only tells half the story. However, I am more of a traditional guy.
I’m coming around with some of the new stats, especially the advance ones that delve deeper within run production(Weighted Runs Created and Weighted On Base Avg)..still getting acquainted tho. Baseball, more than any other sport, by far, provide fascinating discussions involving value through statistics. Many of the writers at this site (not me) are excellent in showing that exercise.
Wouldn’t it be nice if EY duplicated his 2012 season over 598 plate appearences instead of 198 plate appearences? (377/448/825). There would be no doubt he would be your lead off man. If EY wants the stating job, he needs to make his offense more valuable than Lagares defense is. EY is an excellent baserunner and an asset to the team. In the end I see both players getting around 400 AB’s and EY slightly outperforming the staff consensus.
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