Opening day is 10 days away. The anticipation for that first pitch is rising and we’re all ready to settle in for seven more months of baseball. With that in mind, it’s time to see where this team stands in general as we countdown to opening day. So, here’s what I see as being the roster when that first pitch crosses the plate and lands in the catcher’s mitt.
Catcher
Travis d’Arnaud, Anthony Recker
It’s a given that d’Arnaud is our starter. He’s had a terrible spring with the bat, which is minimally concerning since he struggled after his call up last year. Despite that, concern is minor as spring training is just spring training and has been historically full of great players who have stunk and not so great players (Darren Reed anyone) who have been unbelievable, yet never made a mark in the major leagues. Let’s give d’Arnaud a break and see where he’s at in May before getting concerned.
With regards to Recker, he played well in a bench role last year and knows the pitching staff. The only way Taylor Teagarden was going to supplant Recker was with a monster spring with the bat, which hasn’t happened. If Teagarden batted left-handed, along with his superior defensive skills, he would have an advantage, but he doesn’t and let’s not confuse Teagarden with Charlie O’Brien defensively. Teagarden will be some nice depth in Triple-A in case of injury or d’Arnaud flames out and the Mets need a stop gap to figure out what to do next.
First Base
First base is a mess, but not for the reasons many think. A Satin/Duda platoon will work fine for this year. Is it ideal? No and it will produce average production, at best, but that’s still an upgrade from last year. The reason it’s a mess is that Ike Davis and Duda have been hurt most of spring, so it’s been difficult to determine who should be the other side of the platoon with Satin, who has done what he does this spring training, hit a little bit and get on base. It’s also put the Mets in an impossible situation as Duda and Davis shouldn’t be on the team together and whoever isn’t on the team shouldn’t be in the minors as he would just be redundant since Allan Dykstra is ready to take his OBP skills to Triple-A. So that means a trade should be in the works, but how do the Mets trade a commodity that wasn’t much of a commodity during the offseason and hasn’t played much in spring training? I don’t think you can, not if anything decent will be coming back in return. In this particular instance, Sandy Alderson’s patience has backfired.
Part of me wants the Mets to dump both of these guys and platoon Daniel Murphy at first with Satin, giving playing time at second base to either Eric Young Jr. or Wilmer Flores, but the Mets won’t do that. In the end, Davis needs a new place to play and Duda profiles perfectly as a platoon player, will be cheaper long term than Davis and will get less in return than even Davis would via trade. It’s time for the Mets to make a decision here. My vote is for Duda.
Second Base
Daniel Murphy
This is one of the most stable positions on the team and should be for some time. The minors have a lot of depth at the position and Murphy isn’t going anywhere right now. The writing could be on the wall for Murphy if the Mets pull off a trade for Didi Gregorious and Flores plays well at Second Base in Las Vegas, but for now the Mets have a consistent producer at the position and a total lack of question marks when talking about the position.
Shortstop
Ruben Tejada (with a small chance that it’s Didi Gregorious)
It appears that Tejada is getting the job, but the Mets are also known to still be looking closely at other options including Gregorious and Nick Franklin. On top of that, reports are coming out that the Mets are warming to the idea of Flores playing shortstop. In the end, whether it’s a trade or Flores rising to take the position, it looks like Tejada’s days as a starter are numbered.
In the end, that’s probably for the best. Tejada is a major leaguer, but he really belongs as a back-up infielder. Tejada is ideal as a Justin Turner type, a player who can fill in at both middle infield spots and can do enough with the bat to be productive off the bench, but not be a detriment in the everyday lineup.
This is the best possible option I can think of. The Mets trade for Gregorious and send Flores to the minors to play second base full time. Murphy tears it up the first half of the year and the Mets trade him at the deadline for production elsewhere (outfield, first base), then promote Flores to second base and we get to watch a Flores/Gregorious tandem for years to come.
Third Base
The captain and the face of major league baseball man’s this position, the most stable on the franchise. Wright is our icon and the team leader. He’s getting into that stage in his career where we all know as fans that there are fewer great years in front of him than behind him, but who cares. This is going to be the guy that, when he retires, will be up there in the discussion as one of the greatest Mets of all time. He’s going to lead the Mets in nearly every offensive category and will have his number retired. He’s also going to have a great year, so let’s sit back and enjoy.
Outfield
Chris Young, Juan Lagares, Curtis Granderson (left, center, right)
Granderson is the big money contract and will play. This year he will be strong. What we’ll get after year two is up for debate, but Granderson, along with Wright and Murphy, are not question marks moving into the season.
Lagares has earned the right to play Centerfield regularly in 2014. He was ok with the bat last year, but brilliant in the field. In winter league play and spring training, Lagares has hit well and shown the ability to get on base a little more frequently. If he can do that more consistently and use his speed to make up for some of his lack of power, Lagares will be a really solid, long term option at this position.
Young has also played well in spring training. People have questioned this signing from the beginning, but it is really a no lose situation. If Young plays poorly, Young Jr. can fill in for him or the Mets can call up Matt Den Dekker until Cesar Puello is ready. If Young plays well and the aforementioned outfielders are tearing up Triple-A, Young can be a trade deadline piece, or just let go after the season ends, since he’s only on a one year deal. That’s the most important part, it’s one year. Whether he’s great or terrible, the Mets didn’t make a long term commitment. Basically, whatever he does with the bat, he will play well defensively and the Mets have options close at hand, so really, what’s the big deal.
One other thing about the outfield; Young Jr. is going to get at bat’s and, most likely, they’ll come in the outfield, with an occasional start at second base. Young Jr. will probably get into about half of the teams games this year, batting leadoff, which means that there will be some sort of platooning that will go on. The best guess is that Lagares will start 120 plus games, along with Young. That would leave the 80 games that Young Jr. will start. If Collins does it right, this could be a productive outfield combination.
The Bench
Anthony Seratelli, Young Jr., Andrew Brown
Recker and Satin are part of the bench as well. Young Jr. has already been discussed, but his play last year has earned him a spot on the team. He’s a favorite of Terry Collins and gives the Mets flexibility and speed off of the bench. He will bat leadoff in at least half of the games this year and will probably at least be as productive as he was last year.
Seratelli will make the team if the Mets don’t trade for a shortstop. He just makes the most sense as he is also a guy that plays multiple positions. He has speed, a little bit of punch in his bat and is a switch hitter. He’s also the kind of character guy team’s love on the bench as he won’t complain about playing time and will work hard to fill in wherever he needs to.
Brown has played well in spring training and is ideal as a bench player. He showed last year what he brings; he can play both corner outfield positions and has power. Brown is not an everyday player and knows it, so he knows his role. Den Dekker has played well too, but it’s better long term for the Mets to have Den Dekker play every day in Triple-A and be ready for a call up if Lagares or Young stumbles.
The Starting Rotation
Zach Wheeler, Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, Daisuke Matsuzaka
It seems likely that Jonathon Niese starts the season on the disabled list, which is a good precaution to take. Niese is important to this team moving forward as he’s a quality starting pitcher and left handed, so the Mets need to be careful here. The Mets are loaded with pitching prospects, but the only lefty that’s anywhere near the majors is Steven Matz, and he’s not going to be here this year.
Wheeler, Colon and Gee are going to be the heart of this rotation this year. They should eat up innings and keep the Mets in games, at the very least. If Wheeler shows anything similar to the progression Matt Harvey showed last year, the Mets will have something special in the starting rotation for years to come.
Mejia has earned his way onto this team as a starter. I’m not a proponent of putting Mejia in the bullpen. The Cardinals method would be better suited for Noah Syndergaard, Jacob DeGrom or Rafael Montero, as it gives them looks at major league hitters without putting the stress of starting on them. Mejia has pitched in the majors as both a reliever and starter already. To re-boot him in the Cardinals method is just redundant and won’t be beneficial to his progression.
Matsuzaka seems to be a favorite of Collins, but he has also earned a look as a starter, as long as it’s not at the detriment of Mejia. Matsuzaka offers a different look as a starter, with all of his different pitches and unique looks on the mound. There is a benefit to that as a part of the rotation as it can throw hitters off during a series. On top of that, if Matsuzaka flounders, he’s on a minor league deal and the Mets have multiple prospects ready for the show. No harm, no foul, as long as he doesn’t push Mejia into the bullpen.
This rotation also could look very different by the end of the year. Syndergaard and Montero will get starts before this year is over and DeGrom might as well. It’s going to be a very exciting year for this rotation.
The Bullpen
Bobby Parnell, Jeurys Familia, Vic Black, Jose Valverde, Carlos Torres, Scott Rice, John Lannan
Parnell is the closer and is a rock in the bullpen. The years where Parnell was a question mark have passed. He’s our closer and in for a big payday soon at that position. Whether that’s with the Mets or not, I’m looking forward to this year.
Familia has been brilliant this spring and is going to be a key part of this bullpen for years to come. If Familia can keep his walks down, he’s going to be dominant and could be the closer of the future if Parnell doesn’t remain a Met.
Black has struggled, but he’s got a good arm, good stuff and his wildness can be useful in a bullpen. Black also has the confidence and intimidating presence that can be great in a set-up man. I don’t buy him as a closer, but as a guy in the seventh or eighth inning, he can be an asset.
Valverde is the token veteran in the bullpen. Whether he can be anywhere near what he used to be is probably not likely, but he’s a good clubhouse presence and just eccentric enough to be a benefit to the young pitchers in the bullpen. Let’s be real about Valverde. The Mets have enough in the bullpen and in the minors, so Valverde shouldn’t be asked to take on a massive role on this team. He’s going to be the veteran guy who can be called on at times and give his experience to others. Again, he’s a short term commitment that can be cut loose pretty easily, so there’s no harm in him being on the team.
Torres has been guaranteed a spot and earned it last year. He’s pitched ok in spring, but is very useful as a long man, spot starter or different look in a game. Lannan and Rice are the lefties and I think this is a good combo. I don’t have an issue with the LOOGY concept, as long as the bullpen is supported outside of that by pitchers who can face multiple batters. The problem with the Mets pen hasn’t been the LOOGY as much as it’s been that the rest of the bullpen just wasn’t that good, giving the LOOGY a more prominent role than they should have had. Lannan is good as he can also offer spot starting, multiple innings and can pitch to righties and lefties.
The bullpen is also a bit transitional as there are multiple young pitchers in Triple-A that could be a part of this bullpen as the year progresses. Jack Leathersich, Jeff Walters and Gonzalez Germen could all see time in the majors this year, as well as possibly Syndergaard, DeGrom and Montero, depending on how the Mets handle their transition to the majors. The great thing about this bullpen is that, for the first time in years, the Mets have depth in the minors that they can access and haven’t had to build their bullpen strictly from free agency. Take a look at all of the good bullpen’s in the major leagues and you’ll see that’s the formula for success.
In the end, a lot could still change between now and opening day, specifically in the cases of Shortstop and First Base, but right now, this is where the Mets look like they stand. It should be an exciting season as the club could be in the running for a wild card, if things go well, but at the very least, will be able to give us a lot of hope for the future with the multitude of young players who will be making appearances on the field this year.
Let’s Go Mets!
The last I heard Niese is starting the season on the DL only for roster manipulation as he could be activated to pitch on April 6th in the “5th starter spot. However, i’m skeptical of Niese’s health as he always seems to have something nagging over the past couple of years.
… based only on the number of ABs I’m seeing … I’m thinking Lutz makes this team. He’s simply pushing himself into consideration.
About that, hasn’t Ruben woken up at the right time?
We’re short LH bats off the bench, so its likely that MDD gets a long, long look here too.
My guess is that one of the RH bats goes in a trade with Davis or Duda. Don’t be surprised if that bat is EYJ.
If Murphy tears it up in first half and Wilmer Flores looks good at second in Vegas, by all means look to trade Murphy, because he will be a FA after 2 more years. Wilmer’s good performance in Vegas will guarantee he will be an improvement on Murphy. Are you serious?
I wish Flores well, but he’s got to show he can improve on Murphy at the Major League level. His slash line in 2755 at bats in the minors is the same as Murphy’s line in the Majors. .290 / .331 / .430. His 95 Major League at bats are .211 / .248 / .295. Plenty of minor leaguers with similar stats never duplicated them against major league pitching. Bring him up as a back-up infielder and see what he can do. Trading Murphy for an outfielder or other position is nuts.
I am a Murphy fan and he is one of the better players on the team. He will be a free agent in two years and between now and spring training he should have his highest trade value. The Mets are deep at second base in their system so trading a surplus for a need is a logical choice. They can also trade him for prospects to enhance the future while reducing the current payroll and the saved money could be applied to a free agent. Murphy is a good player but not a cornerstone, difference maker , so I would not consider an extension for him. When he reaches free agency he may price himself off the team and then the Mets get zero for this asset.
The Dodgers second baseman is the Mets 2013 backup second baseman who the Mets let walk. Why didn’t Sandy look to make a deal with the Dodgers this past winter? They had a need at third base and second base and Murphy plays both positions. The Dodgers have surplus outfielders and maybe Gordon could have been brought in as shortstop competition and depth. Maybe Turner could have been moved for a low level prospect instead of nothing. There were available pieces and players to help both teams.
I can’t wait to hear TC say Davis has “earned” the 1b job.
These are spring training stats… but still…
Player A: 4 Games, 13 PA, 1 HR/4RBI, .333/.385/.750 1.135 OPS
Player B: 4 games, 12 PA, 2 HR/3RBI, .300/.417/1.000 1.417 OPS.
Duda and Ike are the same, despite what people try to think. Same stats, same potential, same everything. Trade the more expensive one and the one with less control years remaining Now!
Anyway you look at it the roster outside of pitchers is pretty awful on paper. If the catcher does not hit the Mets are in trouble because the SS and 1B positions are in disarray already. So many question marks even before the season starts. Wonderful.