Sandy Alderson put out the word over the last few days that Ike Davis and Lucas Duda would both make the Opening Day roster. In an offseason that could be argued as a success, this situation is a massive failure and it’s somewhat amazing that the front office can’t see that.
The situation isn’t a disaster due to production. Whatever combination of Duda, Davis and Satin that man’s first base this year will be more productive than they were last year. Met first baseman hit .234, with a .353 OBP and a pitiful .368 SLG. Having Satin take the at bats against left-handed pitching alone will raise up those numbers and whichever player hits against right-handers between Davis and Duda basically has to be better by default. Although they haven’t had many spring training at bats, Duda and Davis have shown some improvement over last year’s numbers. Duda only has four hits, but three have been for extra bases, leaving Duda with a very healthy 897 OPS. Davis is in the same boat, with only five hits, but four are for extra bases, leaving him with a nice 811 OPS. Yes, this is only spring training and the low batting averages are a concern, but it’s not very difficult for either to help Satin eclipse those poor numbers coming from first base last year.
The disaster lies in the roster this year and the future at first base for the Mets. Duda has played the outfield, but it’s been made very obvious that he won’t play the outfield this year. Davis only plays first base. The Mets have also made it clear that Satin will be in the lineup against left-handed pitching, which means that Duda and Davis will only hit against right-handed pitching or as a designated hitter. The problem is that they only need the designated hitter five times from opening day in March until the end of April (two games in Toronto and three in Los Angeles against the Angels). That means that through a little less than one-fifth of the season, they can only use Duda and Davis in the lineup together five times, not a viable use of either player.
So the problem lies in playing time, which is a two-fold issue. The Mets can’t move forward with Duda and Davis on the roster. They are both left-hand hitting first baseman who struggle against left-handed pitching. If one was better against lefties than the other, or could play another position, they would be viable options to share roster space. Neither of those situations works, meaning that the two cause roster inflexibility. In addition, the Mets need to play these guys in order to find a trade partner for them. Yet, how can they do that if they can’t be on the field together? They can’t.
You could argue that Duda or Davis could go to the minors and play, but does that really help their trade value? Unlike Wilmer Flores, the bat without a position who is still a prospect due to his age and limited major league experience, Duda and Davis are no longer prospects. They’re at the point in their careers that a minor league trip is considered a negative and will further limit their value in a trade. So basically, the Mets won’t get value for either because they won’t play enough or one will be in the minor leagues.
Alderson has been very good about getting value for veteran players he moved off of the roster (R.A. Dickey, Carlos Beltran, John Buck and Marlon Byrd), but he totally mishandled this situation. There was interest in Davis during the winter meetings and for a little while afterwards. The Mets should have moved him then, but instead held onto him to get a better deal that never materialized. That was a horrendous mistake as they now have an impossible roster situation and two untradeable players.
What further compounds the disaster is that sending either player to the minor leagues causes a developmental system log jam. Allan Dykstra deserves to be in Triple-A, and should have been the fall back option if whoever one the first base job between Davis and Duda, was unsuccessful. That would also leave Double-A open in case Jayce Boyd continues to be very successful, which then leaves Single-A open for Dominic Smith. Boyd and Smith represent the future of the organization at first base and to stunt their growth because we have to reserve a spot at Triple-A for Davis or Duda is contradictory to the future of the organization.
Bottom line is, this is a bad situation. Instead of having a power bat on the bench who can play the outfield in Andrew Brown, were going to be stuck with two left handed hitting first baseman. That makes no logical sense roster wise, but the time has passed to trade either of these guys. So, the Mets need to do the right thing and release one, or get whatever they can for them.
Unfortunately, this front office won’t do that, at least according to what they’re saying today and that’s an error that they will come to regret. Shortstop may be the most concerning position on the team in terms of everyday production, but it comes nowhere near the distraction and roster issues that will be caused by having two limited, left handed hitting first baseman on the same team at the same time. For all of the good feeling the front office created by being active in the offseason, this decision leaves the Met fan with that same horrible gut feeling that the season is going to be a disaster.
If you don’t kno what was offered in return for Davis, how can you tell it was a horrendous mistake.
I believe that if the Mets were willing to give Davis away, there would be takers.
I wish neither of these guy were on the roster, but what’s the alternative? sign a Boras client?
I think the best alternatives are already on the roster or in the minors.
I understand the frustration, I do. I think before we call it a disaster, I think fans need to let it play out for at least 40 games. The injuries sabotaged any trade value they might have had, and Sandy is very prudent in trade negotiations, a trait that has helped the team. Right now, one of them is taking Andrew Browns roster spot, which is pretty much just a pinch hitter.
That’s the exact problem though. If one of these guys is relegated to being a pinch hitter, then he will have even less trade value. That means that whatever they could have gotten for him back then is going to be better than what they could get now.
So not only are we wasting a roster spot but now we can’t get anything back from him either if we traded them anyway
Hence the disaster.
I do want to correct something. The two games in Toronto are exhibition games not regular season games.
Which actually makes the situation worse because now there’s only three games of the first month that they can use the DH.
The Mets have had three years to make this decision and at times there were trade options. You can only play one first baseman in the National League. One should have been traded in a package to improve a position of need. The Mets decided not trade and now they have a power left handed hitter coming off the bench, something they lacked. It does reduce the managers options for defensive switches and not an ideal roster configuration. Duda or Davis are presently better than any fifth outfielder option in the minors. It is a bad roster situation but more bearable than Quintanilla as the backup shortstop.
You can’t look at this in isolation. It’s relative to four other infielders, where you have both a C and a SS that can’t seem to stay on the field for 120 games and a 3B that didn’t get to 120 games last year either.
I’m pretty sure last year every NL team got 600 games out of their infield. Most got around 650 to 700, and I doubt that’s an isolated event.
I think there’s a correlation between a cohesive, stable infield and winning games. The Mets are actually employing a strategy that will almost certainly get no more than 520 games out of the five that start on Opening Day.
Good luck with that.
I think what you’re trying to say is pretty intuitive. Most of the better teams have stable lineups because
-better teams usually have better players so they’re less likely to have platoons or revolving doors
-and their best players were able to stay healthy.
However, just because i enjoy disproving you so much… 😛 If you just look at games played for Opening Day lineup, what you claimed isn’t true.
Braves: C-Laird-47, 1b-Freeman-147, 2b-Uggla-136, ss-Simmons-157, 3b-Johnson-142
Total-629
Nats: C-Ramos-78, 1b-Laroche-152, 2b-Espinosa-44, SS-Desmond-158, 3b-Zimmerman-147
Total-579
Mets: C-Buck-101, 1b-Davis-103, 2b-Murphy-161, ss-tejada-57, 3b-Wright-112
Total:534
Marlins: C-Brantly-67, 1b-Kotchman-6, 2b-Solano-102, ss-hechavarria-148, 3b-polanco-118
Total:441
Phillies: C-Kratz-68, 1b-Howard-80, 2b-Utley-131, ss-Rollins-160, 3b-Young-126
Total:565
However, if you look at the games played for whoever ended up getting the most games there, most teams had 600+
of course, you’ve never proven me wrong.
Opening day lineups naturally are not the point. I will agree with you that there is a sort of post hoc ergo prompter hoc rationale going on here. I mean, the sun only shines when the plants grow, right?
I suppose. I did do a check on this from 2011-2013. Pretty much what I found was that a team could have 650 games out of the infield and not win a lot of games (2013 Giants) but the reverse was uniformly true – no team won with fewer than 600. Classic example is the 2011 Brewers with Fielder, Weeks but also a trio of 70 OPS+ guys.
Check the Dodgers from last year.
C-Ellis-115, 1b-Gonzalez-157, 2b-Ellis-126, SS-Sellers-27, 3b-Cruz-45
Total:470
I’m using Opening day lineups because that’s what you stated. “The Mets are actually employing a strategy that will almost certainly get no more than 520 games out of the five that start on Opening Day”
I guess my point is that I wouldn’t worry about this too much right now. After all, we’re talking about a manager that stated Cowgill was the undisputed CF at the start of last year and started platooning him about 3 games into the season. As long as the Mets make a decision on 1b/SS within the first 2 months into the season, our infield at the end of the season will still be able to make that magical 600 games played mark.
There is a huge a$$ difference between what the Dodgers did and what the Mets are doing.
The Dodgers had no intention of playing Sellers at SS, nor Cruz at 3B. There were injuries that needed to play themselves out – Uribe and Ramirez were on the squad and trying to get onto the field.
It’s not the same thing, not by a distance compared to what the Mets plans. The Mets actually believe in some way that Tejada, DarNo and Satin/Campbell/Dudavis is a solution in the infield.
The solution in Queens is to have a bunch of players that have no likelihood of completing the season, with no reasonable alternative on the squad or in the organization, playing the infield.
The bottom line is this:
If you already have Tejada and DarNo as your committed solutions, then its all the more imperative to have a full time answer at 1B.
I had meant to say here, that “last year every NL playoff team got 600 games”
Having three players on a 25 man roster who are primarily first base man is redundant and not a good utilization of a limited budget. The Mets will make a trade by the end of June to correct this logjam. Any AL team in the wildcard hunt who may need a DH/first base man will be knocking on SA’s door. I just hope he stops asking for the moon and apply the addition by subtraction rule.
Exactly. I don’t think this is what the team had planned, but the injuries sabotaged that. I can’t see them both here unless an injury occurs..which is totally possible
First base was definitely an addition by subtraction venture. Matt Joyce would have fit in nicely. Was Joyce better than Davis ? Was Duda better than Davis? Just for arguement’s sake I’ll say no. Now is Joyce and Duda better than Davis? I am convinced they are.
The problem with trades at the deadline is that you get prospects usually, not immediate help pieces.
Ike reminds me of Dave Kingman with a glove and Lucus Duda hasn’t shown he can play anywhere. The Mets should never have signed Chris Young and used that money to pay for a shortstop rather then an outfielder which then displaced Duda.
The funny (sad) part of this situation will take place when the Mets face an AL opponent who throws a left-hander against them. I guess you play Satin at 1B and have Recker be the DH. Both Davis and Duda are reduced to pinch hitters.
Davis went down to Triple A last year, and the Rays were reportedly offering Matt Joyce for him this winter. Point being that while either being sent down is not ideal for their trade value, as long as they can perform well down there, someone will take a flier on a trade. We won’t have both on the team for very long.
There are so many late game PH and defensive substitution problems and restrictions with the roster as it is developing. Your PH’s have very low defensive flexibility…. Q takes up a spot and has zero offensive value…Blech!!! That’s the technical term.
They decided to “not decide” on d and d…. worse, with Duda still under team control they’ve decided to not control him. They could park him at AAA for Ikes 1st hundred ab’s. They’ve completely mucked their bench usability. Incredible.
Winning is not at a premium.