With Grapefruit Season over and the regular season yet to begin, it’s time to check in with my annual predictions column. These are not safe picks and if history is a guide, a majority won’t come true. Last year was a pretty good year as I got seven out of 15 right and a couple just missed. My goal is to hit over 50% and hopefully this will be the year.
So, here are my 15 predictions for the 2014 Mets.
1. The Mets have three pitchers win 12 or more games for the first time since 2007.
2. Daniel Murphy avoids negative numbers in UZR, finishing at 0 or better at 2B for the year.
3. Jose Valverde spends the entire year in the majors with the Mets.
4. John Lannan does not.
5. Curtis Granderson finishes with at least 10 triples.
6. The Mets will have a stretch of at least 20 games where they post a .700 or better winning percentage.
7. While the three projection systems at FanGraphs predict Bartolo Colon for a WAR under 2.0 – he winds up with a 3.0 or greater mark.
8. Juan Lagares ends up with an OPS 50 points below his .711 Spring Training mark.
9. For the first time under Terry Collins, the Mets finish above .500 at home.
10. Travis d’Arnaud becomes the first Mets catcher to top 500 PA in a season since 2006.
11. Zack Wheeler has the highest ERA among team pitchers with a minimum of 10 starts.
12. David Wright steals 20 bases for the first time since 2009.
13. For the first time since 2005, the Mets have two outfielders start at least 120 games.
14. Mets relievers have the worst differential in ERA compared to their starters than any NL club.
15. Ike Davis records fewer than 250 PA with the Mets
I’m feeling generous so here’s a bonus prediction, recycled from last year:
16. The Mets will finish with more wins than the Yankees.
This prediction will appear in the column until it comes true.
That assumes Curtis gets at least 10 hits this year. I hope he wins MVP. We’ll see. He has been in a hitting deep freeze for 4 weeks, with an awful lot of Ks. Did someone y it is year 1 of 4 for him?
I sincerely believe Lagares grows in his 2nd major league year, as last season, he really struggled in April/May (adjusting to the big step to majors) and late in the season (first time longer season) and was great in between. I think we see .280+
You ought to define UZR in a list like this to make it more reader-friendly.
Thanks tommyb for reading and commenting on this and other stories at the site.
It’s a tough line to determine when to explain a “new” statistical concept and when not to. If you don’t, you risk losing people who don’t know. If you do, you risk offending the readers who already know.
UZR is an advanced defensive metric that uses play-by-play data recorded by Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) to estimate each fielder’s defensive contribution in theoretical runs above or below an average fielder at his position in that player’s league and year. Thus, a SS with a UZR of zero is exactly average as compared to a SS in the same year and in the same league. If his UZR is plus, he is above average, and if it is minus, he is below average.
You can read plenty more on the subject here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/
Great – thanks, Brian. That does make it more UZR-friendly…and the good thing with Google is it tells you where to find everything – I was too lazy to look it up right then – but at the same time, UZR is a less familiar term that something like ERA or even WAR, so I think for the common reader, a definition of that here helps (understanding there are some readers that will say, “c’mon, you don’t know what UZR is? For shame! Get with it.”
BTW, Granderson over the past 3 1/2 weeks was 5 for 44 with 15 K’s and 3 walks…put me in the “worried” category there.
Well as a Met fan I hope your right on must of your points. But we will see starting tomorrow. I do see barring injury Lannan being with the team all year, because he’s a lefty. Unless he totally bombs and Edgin finds home plate and his speed on the fastball. At lease two players on this team have to drive in 100 runs. Yesterdays game being shut out by a group of mediocre pitchers, with your starting line-up, brought back feeling of frustration of the past 6 years.
Re reading your post why do you think Wheeler will fall apart? I think he’s there best pitcher on the staff. He would by one of the pitchers winning over 12 games. I think Colon and Neise (because of his early arm problems) are “wild cards.” If they start counting inning on Mejia, and Wheeler, then I don’t see any big winner outside of Gee. Going into the season the Mets biggest challenge will be scoring runs in their home field. Scoring runs will be a big challenge period. I’m not positive about Davis, Duda or shortstop. I don’t see Valverde staying with the team all year. I agree with you on Lagares, he has to play. Chris Young arm is as good as Juan’s. I would think they will trade, Dice-K. I do not see EY playing that much, Unless someone gets hurt.
The highest ERA last year of anyone in the 2014 rotation was the 3.71 of Niese. With Dice-K, Montero, Syndergaard and JDG available to come up at any point, the Mets are not going to allow a Shaun Marcum – not that there’s a Shaun Marcum on this staff – 12 starts and a 5.64 ERA. Also, there were 14 pitchers last year who had a 3.71 ERA or greater who amassed at least 12 Wins.
Marcum pitched a few good games better than his record showed. He got extremely poor support, from the bullpen and hitters. He was there when the Mets were at there worse. I just don’t think the Mets bullpen will be bad this year. As a matter of fact I think it will be a big positive. I just hope they do not not stick with Ike and Duda for 3 months if neither produces, and they get a shortstop. I also hope they bench players who don’t produce no matter what there salary is. Chris Young has been a big surprise this spring, hope he continues for the rest of the year.
I love predictions and as a fan, I always fall to the positive side of predictions. On the upside:
Ike Davis will surprise everyone by finding his home run swing again. 36 Home Runs
Zach Wheeler records 200Ks
Noah is up mid June and wins Rookie of the Year
Travis hits .250, 12 homers, but 60 RBI’s, which came with 25 doubles.
Of course, he must stay healthy, and the Ike Davis prediction is something I’ll be alone in. 🙂
PS Brian, thanks for the stats review. I don’t think anything comes off as offensive. I appreciate the tutorials and links.
Nice predictions Brian. Not sure I agree with 14, and unfortunately 16.