How many of you had Ike Davis and Juan Lagares as the club’s top two offensive players? That’s where we sit after a tiny sample size of six games. The pitching is bearing the brunt of most of the criticism here in the early going but the offense should not get off so easily. The output has been one dimensional and the early results are worse than what the club produced a season ago.
The Mets have scored 21 runs this year, which ranks 11th in the 15-team National League. League-leader Colorado has already scored 47 runs, albeit with two extra games played. If we use runs per game, the Mets are tied for 10th with a 3.50 mark. Guess which team leads the league? Somewhat surprisingly, the Marlins are at the top of the pack with a 6.00 rpg mark. The league average sits at 3.96 so far.
With few games played, we get some weird spreads, like the Marlins’ 6.00 mark and on the other end of the spectrum, we have the Padres with an average of just 2.00 rpg. But over the 15 teams we see run scoring is nearly identical to a season ago, with 2014’s scoring down 0.04 runs from last year’s 4.00 average.
The 2013 Mets, certainly no one’s idea of an offensive juggernaut, averaged 3.82 rpg, which ranked 11th in the league. This year’s version is worse, nearly one-third of a run. If the Mets had posted their 3.50 rpg last year, they would have finished 14th in the league, ahead only of the 100-loss Marlins.
The overall numbers are not pretty and to make matters worse, they seemingly only score when they hit a HR. The Mets have scored 21 runs so far this year and 16 of those crossed the plate after a homer. The good news is that six of the seven homers the Mets have hit have come with runners on base. The bad news is that’s a pace not likely to continue going forward.
In 2013, the NL hit 2,157 homers and 842 of those came with runners on base. So, that works out to 61% of homers being solo shots. Knowing that, it’s hard to feel good about the Mets depending upon an 86% runners on base rate with homers to be in the bottom half of the league in runs scored.
Last year’s club played their best ball when Lagares went through his BABIP-fueled hot streak. It gave the club another offensive threat to go with Marlon Byrd, Daniel Murphy and David Wright. Given his extended track record of performing when healthy, the Mets should be able to count on Wright to once again be a key offensive weapon. Hopefully we can say the same thing – even with less confidence – about Murphy. But will Curtis Granderson be able to fill Byrd’s role and will someone – perhaps Lagares himself – step up to be that extra threat in the lineup?
And of course looking at only the best hitters neglects the impact of having multiple anchors in the lineup. The Mets played their worst ball last year when John Buck, Davis and Ruben Tejada were hitting worse than a typical pitcher. Currently, the Mets have five regulars in the lineup with an OPS of .617 or worse, including Eric Young Jr. with a .301 mark and Travis d’Arnaud with a paltry .118 OPS.
Again, it’s only six games and there’s no reason to overreact. But if the Mets are to break their 74-win funk – they need the offense to kick in more than what it’s done so far. So, while you’re complaining about the bullpen, save some disgust for the offense.
Let’s hope the Mets are saving their hits and runs for the upcoming series against the Braves.
Can’t get disgusted with the bullpen now that Parnell is done for the season. Just a side note on that. Wasn’t it interesting that the Mets announced that Parnell would be reevaluated in a few weeks to determine the severity of his injury and BP (not the FO)announces that he’s having surgery. Hmm? Too early to be pessimistic about the season. So we’ll see how long TC stays with EY leading off and take it from there.
TC will probably stick with EY leading off until Chris Young comes off the DL. BTW, I think his return may make a difference to this offense as well.
#1 Get a shortstop. If you have to have a guy who can’t hit there at least get a guy that is good defensively. #2 Play Brown and see what happens. He has a little power. Let Young be a PH and PR for a few games.
Nothing wrong with relaying on the Home Run. Especially from the two guys who hit them. That was what was expected from them the last 4 years. But not getting runs in from 2nd and 3rd with one out is something else. This happened two much last year. Striking out by your two best hitters is unacceptable. Hit a fly to the outfield or grounder to the right side of the infield has to be done. Wright struck out on three questionable pitches he went after, in my mind they all looked low. They need more hits and runners on base overall. They also seem to die after the first inning.
It’s no surprise the Mets have had to rely on the long ball early on as they have 3 automatic outs in their lineup right now-our #1 spot(EY), #6(combo of players), #7(TDA). Can’t bunch together many hits when you’re only working with basically 2 outs per inning instead of 3.
TDA’s lack of hitting is concerning but patience should be shown. I love his defense. He is fun to watch.
I totally agree Brian. When the HRs dry out, which will be sooner then later, the offense shortfall will be huge. Im happy to have the HR, but I very much would rather see the BAs go up and be stronger hitting gap to gap, and moving station to station.
id like to see juan leading off and puello brought up to play left field and bat 5 or 6.
Ill be honest with you, Im quite happy with Lagares batting 6th.
In a home ballpark that is still cavernous, wouldn’t it make more sense to have line drive gap to gap hitters with high OBP than fly ball home run hitters that strike out a lot? That is a simplified solution to a winning home record. 81 games are played in Citi and the Mets have a losing record. Their solution was to change the buffet menu!
Citi Field has been a decent-to-good HR park since they moved the fences in. Last year it had a HR factor of 1.120 — making it the 10th-best park for homers in the majors. When you combine that with how Citi depresses run scoring in general (0.867 runs factor, which ranked 29th in MLB last year), I don’t know if the Mets need to run away from HR hitters.
I agree Metsense. Not just the field, which is widely regarded as playing large, but the philosophy. I think walking and hitting HR is a preposterous way to structure an offense, especially in a stadium where Mets dont get on base, and are light years behind hitting HR relative to visiting clubs. I would be playing the doubles game with with a lot of line-drive hitters.
Walking and hitting HR worked for Earl Weaver and the Orioles for 20 years.
Thats fine in a small field loaded with killer bats. That describes neither Citi nor the Mets.
The Mets and their opponents hit 149 HR in Citi Field in 2013
The Mets and their opponents hit 133 HR in road games in 2013
There’s no reason to view Citi as some place where homers are rarely hit.
Unfortunately something like 90HR in 2013 were by the opposing team.
Your number is spot on. But it just goes to show that HR can be hit in big amounts in Citi Field. Hopefully in 2014, the Mets hit their fair share of homers in their own park.
Im with ya, and certainly hoping for the same…promising so far. I am more a fan of station to station baseball than all or nothing. I dont think playing like the Braves or Yankees is a recipe for winning a WS, although I understand that is presently desirable.
I’m with you Chris. I haven’t look at the numbers, but it seems like there are too many taken fastballs early on. Especially from EY and Ruben. (Although good game from both last night) I’d like to see that change.