Jeurys Familia and Vic Black have to learn control

The Mets’ bullpen seems to be in a constant state of flux so far in 2014. The heralded closer Bobby Parnell was supposed to be fully recovered from neck surgery, only to blow out his elbow in his first appearance of the year and be sidelined with Tommy John surgery. Jose Valverde stepped up, and then quickly fell down. Kyle Farnsworth is now the closer, but at 38 years old he’s no longer the kind of player who can pitch three days in a row without possibly severe consequences. Even Daisuke Matsuzaka recorded his first career save with the Mets recently, as the hodge-podge relief corp. continues to work, if just barely.

That is why Jeurys Familia and Vic Black are so important to the future success of this bullpen. Both Familia and Black can average their fastballs around 96 mph. Black offers a slider and a curveball as well, while Familia can additionally incorporate a sinker and changeup. It’s no wonder these guys have shown so much promise over the past few seasons, and why many are calling for them to have larger roles in the current Mets bullpen.

Despite all that promise, though, neither player is living up to their potential. Familia now has six walks to go along with four strikeouts. Those are not positive numbers coming from a guy who can blow the ball past most hitters. He has been throwing his sinker nearly a quarter of the time, which is a great idea when you can get the heater up to high 90s. But if neither pitch is locating, all you are doing is giving guys a great look at your repertoire as it lands outside the strike zone for ball four. Meanwhile, the fastball that was once a vital tool is now being used less than 60% of the time, and isn’t setting up the breaking pitch with enough frequency or effectiveness.

Black’s minor league pitch frequencies aren’t recorded through FanGraphs, but we do know that he has an abysmal 0.9 K/BB ratio, thanks to nine strikeouts and ten walks. Black added two more walks last night in an inning of work. He hasn’t given up an earned run so far in Triple-A despite these numbers thanks largely to a ridiculous 92.3 LOB%, which is unrealistic to maintain. Eventually Black will not be able to K his way through the walks, and he will start to suffer greatly.

The same issue seem to be plaguing Black and Familia. Lack of control and/or infrequency of the fastball aren’t setting up the breaking pitches. Familia’s current .314 BABIP is just above average, so nobody is getting extremely lucky hits off of him. Meanwhile Black’s .200 BABIP will almost definitely increase, and when it does those walks are going to make his ERA balloon. Both are professionals so they know that even mediocre hitters can catch up to a fastball if that’s the only pitch being used. To Familia’s credit, he’s trying to use his other pitches. However, not being able to get those pitches over for strikes kills the effectiveness of every other pitch he throws. That’s why control problems can be so devastating, they quickly snowball.

These issues are so obvious that it is without a doubt the pitching coaches are working on these problems as we speak, and that’s good. The Mets have been winning by the seat of their pants lately, and while fans will take those wins however they can get them, it would be nice to have the bullpen be less of a question the deeper the season goes on. Familia and Black not only have the potential to fix that problem, but either has the ability to close sometime in the near future. But potential only gets you so far. Eventually all that hope and promise will need to become a reality.

As Yoda suggested, “Control. Control. You must learn control.”