Over the past three days, the Lucas Duda, Ike Davis debate received some gasoline on its cooling embers. Davis returned to town with the Pirates and Duda had been in a slump. People throughout the internet and radio universe were discussing the validity of the trade and whether the Mets made the right choice. All that needs to be said to any of that is, “Everyone needs to slow down.”
Statistically speaking, Duda has been better than Davis. Davis is hitting 33 points higher than Duda (.269 to .236). Davis also has a better OPS (767 to 738), but that OPS is mostly due to Davis’ high OBP of .375, 54 points higher than Duda’s .321. Despite this seeming statistical advantage for Davis, the production outside of the percentages doesn’t match. In only ten more plate appearances and fewer times on base, Duda has only scored one less run than Davis, while knocking in six more runs. Duda has also hit four more home runs than Davis, leading to a 25 point advantage in SLG over Davis (.417 to .392). Defensively they’ve basically been a wash, leading to Duda’s overall slightly better cumulative WAR of 0.5 to 0.3.
Does that mean the Mets made the right choice between the two? It’s impossible to determine right now. So far, they’ve had a slightly more productive player, but this question might not be answered for a long period of time. Not because Duda or Davis are the long term answers at first base for either team. More than likely neither will be. Duda definitely isn’t the long term solution for the Mets. That’s going to hopefully be Dominic Smith or Jayce Boyd, currently both in the minor league system for the Mets. That question won’t be answered until we know who the player to be named later is in the transaction, whether that player develops and if Zack Thornton ever becomes a part of the Mets bullpen. If the Mets get a good prospect (hopefully JaCoby Jones currently hitting .270 with a 776 OPS in Single-A while playing shortstop), who then becomes a productive major leaguer and Thornton becomes a productive member of the bullpen, then the Mets clearly made the right player choice. If neither of those things happen, then it will be about the careers that Davis and Duda have moving forward that will determine whether the Mets chose correctly or not.
In the end though, that’s not really what was important about this deal. Moving Davis or Duda was what was vital. One of these two needed to be traded as they couldn’t both be on the 25 man roster together and couldn’t be left to clog up the first base system in the minor leagues. The Mets traded the one that had the most value to other teams, Davis and will live with a Duda platoon for now until they determine whether they need a short term solution at the position while a prospect develops or they can leave the platoon in place until that prospects arrival.
In addition, these two players careers aren’t going to be that far apart long term. Neither is going to be an All Star or superstar in this league. Davis had one solid year, where he hit 30 plus home runs. Outside of that one statistic, he wasn’t that much better than Duda and has shown that in his stint with the Pirates, where he has amassed greater percentages than Duda, but still isn’t hitting home runs and has only been mildly better defensively. The reality is that both of these players are borderline starters who can provide left handed power, but will strike out and struggle against left handed pitching. If the Mets get an everyday player and a decent relief pitcher in this deal, it’s a bonus. If they get neither of those things, but similar production from Duda as they would in Davis, it’s still fine because the deal needed to be done, regardless of the return for Davis. If Davis becomes a total stud, Duda is an absolute debacle, neither Thornton nor the player to be named later every plays for the major league club and neither Boyd nor Smith develops into an everyday first baseman, then the Mets messed up. But who really believes that will be the result? The odds say it’s not very plausible. So, the bottom line is, the Mets did what was necessary. It’s time to move on.
I disagree with how you evaluate trades. It should be done at the time of the trade because most there are too many variables after that cannot be foreseen or controlled.
IE. Paying $10 million dollars for 1 lottery ticket is stupid whether or not you hit it big.
If the Mets get good value for Davis now, it doesn’t matter how they turn out, it’s a good deal. The question is how you want to value Davis. I consider him a piece of garbage and would have just released him outright so any player with some upside would have been a win to me. Others likely have higher expectations and therefore differing views of the trade.
But i definitely agree that one had to go one way or another, whether it be released, traded, or the least appealing option, back to Vegas. The team, i’m sorry, Sandy, carrying 3 1b out of Spring Training was a farce.
Nice article…speakng of the PTBN any idea when we can expect to hear?
After the draft. Rumor is that the PTBNL is a player the Pirates drafted in 2013. Those players can’t be traded for a full year after being drafted.
Well written article and I agree with the angles you approached this analysis with.
The ultimate point here again, is that neither are long-term solutions. I’m glad we got the grand slam out of Davis before he left but that was just pure luck. Duda is still difficult to watch take a throw from a fellow infielder.
Thanks!
In a vacuum, I’d rather have the MLB player whose OPS was OBP-driven rather than SLG-driven.
The trade should have occurred in November when the Rays offered Matt Joyce. Sandy could not get Aoki straight up from the Brewers so Sandy should have realized that he was over valuing Davis and should have jumped on the Joyce trade. Both Duda and Davis could put up average numbers for first base but Davis was more inconsistant. Davis at one point obviously had some trade value, apparently Duda never did. Sandy did poorly in this trade because the Mets need for an OF could have been satisfied early in the offseason, reducing the need to spend 7.25 m and appropriating part of that salary elsewhere like veteran reliever Hawkins at 2.5 M.
I don’t think anything “heated up”. I think we’re all fed up that this soap opera went on as long as it did.
The fact remains that Ike still has a better upside than Duda, and with the pop in his bat, his batting average indicates he may be on the way back.
Davis and duda both stink put Eric Campbell at first
My thought exactly. Issue is which one is worse not which is better. Davis had a good year a fews years back and Duda is barely a major league player. I would like to see Campbell or Dykstra get a shot.