Sandy Alderson took a stroll down Sabermetric Lane yesterday, much to the delight of the “LOLMets” crowd. His main point was basically to say, “Hey, look. We’re not as bad as we seem. We’ve only been outscored by four runs so far this season. Things are due to even out, so stick with us.” As my friend Joe Vasile points out in the linked article, Alderson’s mostly right, though there are outliers. The Mets are eleven games under the .500 mark, 37-48. But if you take a look at the Mets’ Pythagorean record – what their record “should” be, based on run differential – they’d be a bare one game below even. In fact, the Mets right now are the mirror opposites of their cross-town neighbors, the Yankees, from a Pythagorean standpoint. The Yanks enter today’s play with a whopping (-37) run differential. Yes, that’s “minus-thirty-seven.” Their Pythagorean record is a brutal 37-46, yet their actual tally is 41-42.
So why do the Mets have the record the Yankees are supposed to have and vice-versa? If you ask a non-analytical Yankee or Met fan, you’ll probably hear the old tautology: “Because the Yankees are the Yankees and the Mets are the Mets.” Of course this is convenient for the fanboys, of which there is no shortage in this town. In actual fact, though, it probably doesn’t go terribly much deeper than that. Yes, an element of luck 
plays into these results and baseball luck does tend to even out over the course of one-sixty-two. At the same time, though, as Casey Stengel famously told a band of Polo Grounds scribes after yet another dismal defeat, “You make your own luck.” Yes, you’ll get the occasional bad bounce and bad call, but good teams overcome those. Bad teams are overwhelmed by them – and add a few of their own to the mix. This is the spot the Mets are in right now. As has been said before, there have been far too many contests kicked away this year because of a double play unturned, a missed cutoff man resulting in an extra base taken by the enemy, a home team base running blunder costing a run and far too many foul balls when a Mets pitcher is ahead in a count. It’s gone beyond being raggedy around the edges – it’s now verging on out-and-out incompetence. And while most will point to the manager and coaching staff – fairly, as it is their job to make sure these guys have their heads in the game – the construction of this roster leaves no margin for error. Frankly, most teams are able to outhit and outslug their mistakes. The Mets do not have that luxury, especially now, having spent this 1-6 week with David Wright on the shelf. The offense has been largely invisible. Therefore, any play not made stands out that much further, because it’s a pretty safe bet the bats aren’t going to make up for it – “pick it up,” in player-speak. As we get closer and closer to the trade deadline, it looks as though that desperately needed big bat ain’t coming.
And for all his smoke about how much he “kind of like[s] this team” – KIND OF?? – that one’s on Sandy.
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This season is to the point that it not only seems the Mets consistently do what is necessary to lose, they actually do so. Three error game, great pitching comes when the offense is missing and when the Mets do score runs a pitcher has a “bad game”. Always just enough to lose. The business world would view this as a culture of failure. When this happens there is usually a change in management coming. I am an Alderson supporter and like what he’s doing building the system, but something needs to change. I’ve always scoffed at the trade Wright proponents but at this point something needs to rattle the players cage. I don’t think trading Wright is answer but maybe Collins needs to go. Some change that shakes the players out of their comfort zone. A new sheriff may be the answer.
Wright cannot be traded. Firing Collins and Warthen certainly would be a plus however.
I kind of like this team, too. It desperately needs a return to form from Wright and a thumper. But the other pieces are in place or visible in the pipeline or DL.
Sure, a SS would be nice but if Tejada is the team’s biggest problem – I’ll live with that.
If only Tejada were our biggest issue.
When avid Mets followers such as Brian Joura and Chris F. tells us that the SS is not the “biggest” issue/problem it is another way of saying that the team is really bad.
How many bigger problems can you have? Is it the poorly constructed roster?
Is it young pitchers going through the growing pains of learning their craft on the big league level? Is it a manager who has never demonstrated the competence to lead a team to a championship, and now is lost with a non-contender? Is it a GM who doesn’t have the resources (external/internal) to solve the roster holes?
Is it ownership with priorities vastly different than the fans?
Yes, it’s nice to see Murphy building his value as a hitter and Lagares roam the
outfield. Yes, it’s nice to see Granderson proving that he still has it. Yes, it’s nice to see a better bullpen than we had in April.
But, it’s not enough. And while SS may not be the “biggest” problem, it is a symptom of a team which may not even be at the level of mediocrity.
When Brian Joura, a proponent of using advanced stats to measure performance, tells us that he “kind of” likes this team, I have to believe he is letting his heart get in the way of objectivity. There’s just not enough to like.
There’s a young catcher who’s always hit in the minors
There’s a first baseman who is league average, perhaps a shade better
There’s a second baseman who’s going to be among the league leader in hits
There’s a Gold Glove CF who’s displayed some more offense
There’s a RF who has shaken off a dismal start to be a strong contributor
There’s a bullpen that’s been surprisingly good after a terrible start
We need Wright to come back and be Wright. We need Harvey to come back and pitch like he did in 2013, for Niese and Gee to keep doing what they’re doing and for Wheeler to make expected improvement.
The results they have been getting in 2014 to date have been depressing. I’m not arguing otherwise. All I’m suggesting is that it’s not as bleak as the record might indicate. So far, C, SS and LF have been poor and 3B has been worse than expected. I think there’s reason to expect increased production from C and 3B going forward and there’s reason to expect the SP to be better, too.
If they can find a 25-HR LF, I’ll live with Tejada being the worst player on the team. He just can’t have a ton of company like he’s had in 2014.
BINGO!
Great summary of the situation, Brian, but they do need that impact bat LF to bat in the middle of the order.
NCMetFan is correct, something needs to change and the manager’s spot would be the easiest to change.
Alderson is saying the record should be better because of the run differential, therfore he believes the players he has assembled should be performing to.500 so that leads me to conclude that the manager is not getting the results he should with the personnell.
I don’t want to let Alderson off the hook on this either. He may be right that the record should be better but he thought in March that “he” constructed a 90 win playoff bound team and their are no indications of that at all with this team. He also was the one that extended this manager’s contract.
Exactly!
I don’t think Brian is saying anything really different than I said, but he is giving it a more optimistic twist.
As Bill Parcells said, “you are what your record says you are.”. The Mets project to a 70-71 win season. This season’s roster does not have one deserving starting all-star. Murphy is hitting but there are still deficits in his game. Colon is a +40 year old who may soon be traded. Wright is having a subpar season. Grandy is coming on but there are many better OFs around the league. Lagares is a joy to watch but is still developing his game.
In my septuagenarian view, which includes evaluating ownership and management, there is not a lot to be optimistic about.
If only every other teams weren’t looking for another 25 HR source of power.
And if only all those other teams had the same financial limitations, or unwillingness to part with young pitching, as the Mets are saddled with.
Brian – you make it sound like we’re just around the corner. But we’re not; the power source you want is walking into Citifield wearing blue and orange … at least not enough to make up for ….
The lack of control runs through every strain of the pitching mound – except the guys that we are supposedly going to trade away! And a team continues to give away far too many ABs to completely sub par players – with not a single, outstanding hitter to make up for it. For the second year in a row.
Fielding, which was supposed to be a strength on this team, has proven to be a surprising Achilles heel. So what do we have in sum?
A team that gives up free baserunners, gives up extra outs on defense, and provides easy outs (partly provided by a manager willing to give extended tryouts at the major league level to players clearly over their heads, partly due to ridiculous base running errors. Somebody. Please. Shoot. Tim. Teufel.)
Minor leagues won’t provide what you lack in power, in pitchers with control (unless your Gorski can make that jump), or incredible fielders. In fact, literally the best prospects (Leathersich, Dykstra, Flores,etc.) have massive holes in their games.
The cure for what ails the Mets winds up being a the possibility of David Wright being David Really Right, and Lucas Duda going from 25 HR to 35 HR, and Sandy pulling some magic out of his a$$ at the trading deadline. Good luck with all of that.
Your point about 25-HR hitters is duly noted.
While they do not grow on trees, they are not impossible to find, either. Alderson is going to have to make a trade to get one. So far, he’s been either unable or unwilling to pull the trigger on said deal. I lean towards the latter. If by this time next season he’s not made that deal, perhaps I will change my POV.
I think you vastly underestimate the number of PAs teams — even good teams — give to sub-par players. The Brewers have the best record in the NL and 24% of their PA have gone to players with a sub .700 OPS. Sure, the Mets have given more than that but it the C hits like he has in the minors and they make a trade for a SS or LF — then they will be right where the Brewers are.
Coming into the season, I don’t believe anyone considered fielding to be a strength. Yet, they are above average in both DRS and UZR. The memory of the Braves debacle is fresh in everyone’s mind but I’m not going to let one game trump what they’ve done the entire season. If they’re going to post positive numbers in both DRS and UZR — I’m not going to worry about the defense.
If Matt Harvey comes back to 2013 levels, I’m not going to worry about the SP, either. Young pitchers give up walks. In other news, the sun rises in the east. The Mets should have three out of Colon, Gee, Harvey and Niese next year — which will be an excellent start to a strike-throwing rotation.
You won’t get any argument from me that they need to change the manager.
While they need Wright to be right, they don’t require anything more from Duda than what he’s done year to date. Sure, it would be great if he took a step forward, but I’ll take his .800 OPS and be happy. They need d’Arnaud to hit like he has in the minors, Wright to hit like he has throughout most of his career and to make a trade for a SS or LF. And everyone else to just do what they’re doing.
The results this year have been disappointing but I do think they are close to being an above-average team. Name has pointed out more than once that change does not have to be incremental, or linear. That’s something the 1969 Mets and the 1984 Mets have proven to us in the past.
Assuming the same 74-win season they’ve put up the past two years happens again in 2014, I can envision a double-digit improvement in wins without any trouble at all in 2015.
Sub 700 Brian, isn’t really below average. I mean, if you are at .688 or something, that’s really pretty close to average.
The number I’d look to is to exceed .650 – I used that number because it seemed fair and standard. Now, using that standard, it does work against the Mets today (since two Mets are awfully close), and I didn’t mean it to turn out that way … but …
Positional Mets players, unable to muster a 650 OPS have been given the third most PA in the NL. (the Padres are staggeringly bad – like, I had to check bad.) My cross tabs show me nearly 1300 of 3091 – 42%.
It means that almost half the at bats are automatic outs, or nearly so. The league average is 28%. All the other teams in our division are less than that. We are *half again* worse than they are.
Maybe you think that’s grossly overstating the case, but I don’t.
The problem isn’t that the Mets have too many guys between .650 and .699 — the problem is the catchers at .583 and the LF at .591 and the SS at .632
That culture of losing mentioned can sometimes be more impactful than any run differential. The Mets simply don’t play like winners. While that’s a very broad statement, it speaks to the culture around the team, from ownership down. Too many fires to attend outside of the baseball diamond have left this franchise without true leadership. SA will have to figure out a way to win without true backing behind him. That’s a sad state of affairs, but one we have to live with.