Thursday night the Mets reached down to Double-A to promote Dilson Herrera as the corresponding move to placing Daniel Murphy on the disabled list. This move is bold, completely unexpected and terrific news for those of us who want to get better sooner rather than later. In the past, we might have expected the Mets to sign twice-released Dan Uggla, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Now we’re giving a shot to a guy who’s healthy, young and who actually produced in the current calendar year.
No one would have criticized Sandy Alderson if he promoted Danny Muno, Matt Reynolds or even Josh Satin. Muno has zero upside but he would have been happy to be here and the Mets could then continue to play Ruben Tejada and Wilmer Flores in the middle infield. Reynolds is the flavor of the month and his raw numbers look great until you remember to take the Las Vegas/PCL air out of them and then you’re left with nothing special. Promoting Satin could have been one last shot for a guy we had some modest hope for at the beginning of the year.
Instead Alderson, the man often criticized here and elsewhere for being too patient and too inflexible and too unimaginative, opted for a choice no one saw coming. Really, if told this time Wednesday that Alderson was going to promote a 20 year old from Double-A to the majors – what would have been your response? Anyone being honest with themselves would have dismissed this out of hand. Yet here we are.
It’s hard to imagine calling Herrera up just to sit on the bench. Satin should have been the choice if that was the case. Instead we’ll see him in the lineup, at least until Murphy comes back. One would expect Terry Collins to bat him low in the lineup to help him get adjusted to life in the majors. Perhaps the more interesting question is if he’ll get any time at shortstop while with the club.
If asked to predict his chances of being a competent MLB shortstop, my response would be: Unlikely. But is that materially different from playing Flores there? Last year, league managers voted Herrera the top defensive second baseman in the South Atlantic League. He’s not a zero defensively; he’s not a bat merely looking for a home.
At the same time, if the Mets really thought him playing short was a possibility, he would have been receiving more reps there than he actually received. This year, Herrera played 27 games at shortstop, with only eight of those coming after his promotion to Double-A. Still, this is the organization that decided to move Flores back to shortstop after declaring him unfit for the position three years ago. If Lucas Duda can play left field over multiple seasons, Herrera can play shortstop for 30 meaningless games at the end of another lost season.
Defense is great. Defense is important. But unless the Mets step to the plate and pay a big price, either in dollars for a free agent or in young talent in a trade, the option is a competent fielder with no bat in Tejada, a poor fielder with a questionable bat in Flores or unknowns in Reynolds and/or Herrera. The reports on Reynolds’ fielding have been generally positive. But if we apply our rule of thumb of a 19% drop in OBP and a 30% drop in slugging for a player moving from Las Vegas to Queens, we see Reynolds with a .314 OBP and a .342 slugging based on his actual Triple-A output this year.
No doubt some people are unhappy that the Mets promoted Herrera in the first place. It’s hard to imagine those same folks being pleased with asking him to play a position he’s barely played in the minors. Those are both valid positions to have and my inclination would be not to try to persuade them otherwise.
But in promoting Herrera in the first place, Alderson and the Mets decided to swing away rather than leaving the bat on their shoulder. Playing Herrera at second base now is like trying to hit the ball hard up the middle. It’s a great approach.
If Duda swings the bat hard at the first pitch and singles up the middle, we’re all happy with that outcome. But with an 0-0 count, is there anything wrong with Duda looking to swing for the fences? Don’t you want Duda being selectively aggressive? Shouldn’t he be looking for a certain pitch in a certain zone the first pitch of an at-bat?
Earlier, the word “unlikely” was used to describe my thoughts of Herrera being an MLB shortstop. If it’s unlikely, why should the Mets bother? Duda has been to the plate 479 times this year and has 26 homers. It’s unlikely that he homers on any one time up. The most likely outcome is a strikeout, one he’s done 104 times this year. He’s four times more likely to whiff than hit one out of the park.
Duda hitting a home run is the best possible outcome, regardless of how likely he is to get one. If he goes up to bat looking for a slider over the plate or a fastball middle in and instead gets a curve at the knees, he takes it for a strike and still has other chances to swing. If the Mets play Herrera at shortstop and he’s worse there than Flores – they still have chances to play him at second base in the future.
It was a bold move to promote Herrera from Double-A at his young age. After years of seeing moves that if you squinted hard you could see them possibly being beneficial, why not continue to be bold and swing for the fences?
We understand that it’s unlikely to work. But when the Mets signed Marlon Byrd in February of 2013, it was unlikely that he was going to get his career going again. It was a low-level gamble that paid off big time when Byrd became a middle-of-the-order hitter and then paid off again when they were able to trade him for a Lo-A second baseman.
Playing Herrera at shortstop the remainder of the 2014 season is a low-level gamble. The worst thing that happens is that he’s a lousy fielder and a lousy hitter and he comes back next year as a no-doubt-about-it second baseman. But what if he turns out to be an acceptable fielder at short, even if he doesn’t hit?
Then he can play Winter Ball at shortstop and plan all offseason on making the switch. Imagine a double play combo of Herrera and Murphy. It may not be pretty defensively but having two guys in the middle infield challenge to hit .300 over an entire season would make up for a lot of things.
Here’s hoping Alderson and the Mets continue to be bold with The Dilson.
I’m glad they’re giving the Dilson a shot. He’s been pounding pitchers in the minors. If he flops, he goes to Vegas next year. If he doesn’t, we have one more bat for next year. No lose situation.
I’ll just repeat what I’ve said elsewhere.
I’m on record as thinking this is incredibly short thinking, that a 20 year old shouldn’t be playing in this arena until he’s ready and that there were better options for this organization – and especially at that position.
They are taking an incredible risk on destroying potential trade value down the line for what I see as marginal upside, all the while bypassing older players that might be more ready for this move.
Bad baseball, if you ask me.
Like I said in the article, I think this is a valid POV.
Referencing a comment you made elsewhere, I don’t think he’s in the Trout-Griffey-Mantle stratosphere. But I do believe we can make a partial comparison to Trout.
Mike Trout came up for 40 games as a 19 year old and put up numbers nowhere near his minor league production nor what we expect from him now. He had an 89 OPS+ and began the next year back in the minors before coming back to the majors and winning the ROY.
He came up early, got experience and when he came back, he was up for good. I see no reason why this is an unreasonable expectation for The Dilson. Expecting him to be ROY is unreasonable. Expecting him to be playing everyday in the majors in August of 2015 is not.
Not everyone is ready for the majors at this age and I know you can come up with 50 or more examples of that. I happily cede that point.
My belief is that Alderson is conservative by nature and if he feels that The Dilson is potentially one of the guys who is ready, I’m going to respect that opinion.
Anything is possible. A version of Trout might be really the best upside for Dilson.
I do risk-reward analysis for a living. If Herrera turns in what would be normal for a 5-10″, 150# guy at the age of 20 and surprise of all surprises he really can’t hit a HR every 27 ABs like he has at Bingo – because, well, he’s never done that before – you’ve destroyed the aura of DH.
In one more year, Dilson Herrera could have pointed to probably close to 40 HR at the AA-AAA level playing either SS or 2B. What is that worth in terms of trade value? How little is it worth if its sandwiched around a .150 BA in Queens?
I agree with you Brian. Its an amazing thing for the conservative Alderson to step out. In my mind, I’m just saying I think he’ll regret it. Good article though.
If anything, it seems your thinking is short-term oriented.
Your argument predicates around maximizing his trade value, which means trading him this off season or early next season, in which your argument has merit.
If instead the goal is to simply develop Herrera as a player and keep him for at least 2-3 years, who cares what his trade value is this offseason?
Every asset you have, needs to be maximized to its value either in playing for you or trading away to play for another team.
You are most definitely not maximizing his value. Moving up Herrera reeks of making the fans happy and that is the reference to short term.
Everything else needs to be seen as an 18 month window because beyond that you have no vision (and perhaps within that time period).
Feel free to see it otherwise, but I notice nobody is taking up on the value proposition of what happens to DH if he shows up in the major leagues like a 5-10″, 150# middle infielder that’s never show real power until this half season.
Hey, I’ll show up and watch him. Let the Nielson ratings fly! I’m hoping its a great move and I’m completely wrong and its not surprising to me in the least that I’m alone on this point.
20 years old and 150 pounds. Let’s hope we have Joe Morgan.
I understand that 150 is his listed weight at Baseball-Reference.
Major league weights are unreliable and minor league ones are worse. I’d bet every penny I owned that he weighed more than that. Now, he may check in at a whopping 155. Or maybe it’s 165. I don’t pretend to know.
I do know that Ron Darling talked recently about how he kept his height and weight from his rookie year for his entire career in the majors. It’s possible Herrera gets weighed and measured when he reports – not sure what the procedure for that is.
“but I notice nobody is taking up on the value proposition of what happens to DH if he shows up in the major leagues like a 5-10″, 150# middle infielder”
I think many I have already addressed this point.
The answer is nothing. Not being able to hit in the majors over a 2 week span or even a month should not significantly alter your long-term opinion of him. No person in baseball is going to judge someone based solely on a tiny 2 week sample size, and if they do, they’ll be out of a job quickly.
Even I didn’t think Flores lost that much value after not doing well last year. Fail for a second time though, and red flags need to start being thrown.
And i’ll repeat this. If the Mets aren’t interested in trading him within 18 months, who cares what his trade value is this offseason?
Because in theory, you should always be willing to trade someone.
Always.
And I think you’re idea that his value won’t be impacted is to say the least naive.
Yes. You should always be open to trading someone, but shouldn’t solely dictate your thinking. An analogy would be that i’m always on the lookout for safety hazards when i go out because they are always present, but it shouldn’t let that fear get in the way of having fun.
The Mets should be open to trading him, but it shouldn’t deter them from doing something to try to maximize the value to the Mets, as long as it’s not gonna cripple his trade value.
You’re acting like he needs to hit 300+ with speed and power or else his value will drop. If he holds his own and plays to even a low to mid 600s OPS, his value would decrease marginally at worst.
Do you think that much less of Rougned Odor now than before this season? He’s got a .650 OPS (while playing in Texas) and doesn’t rate that well according to defensive metrics.
Even in prospectland, he’s not that well-known of a guy so i actually think the exposure to the national media (or at least NY) would benefit his value.
Sorry. I didn’t respond to your question … just the first sentence.
Look, you can’t go into any situation so fixed that you only have one outcome for the next 2-3 years. Because his valuation will change over that time and become more or less valuable to you vis-a-vis the rest of the league.
As a result your steps must be to maximize his value to the world at large and make decisions based on your roster makeup and financial constraints. I can’t see a world where moving DH up maximizes his value, unless this happens:
he hits, and hits a ton.
He gives you a window that makes trading Murphy a clear option. And for him to do that, yes, I’m afraid that forces him up into the stratosphere … and plainly I think that is nearly no shot of happening just yet. But if he does hit well, then I guess the move was worthwhile.
I’ve read somwhere that Herara plays and prefers playing the SS position….if he holds his own during this end of season callup why not think of him as a potential 2015 shortstop solution..keep Murphy..which leaves only the LF position as a need this offseason…again provided he shows himself well in the last mnth of this season.
Reynolds AA numbers were better than Dilson at Binghamton before his promotion to AAA. Where his number continued to be high. Your making misleading statements. Being a Met fan, I hope Dilson is as good as they think.
Hey Wilponzi…who mentined Reynolds…I can’t find it…tks
If Reynolds had more upside shouldn’t we have already seen him at Citi?
actually when you factor in slugging, I don’t that argument holds water.
On top of that, and I hate to keep bringing this up, but Herrera is 20. You are comparing apples and oranges and even if they were equivilant, Herrera has hit 10 dingers in 270 ABs.
Numbers at Double-A Binghamton:
Herrera — .967 OPS
Reynolds – .852 OPS
Did this whole TDA-to-LF catch (no pun intended) anyone else by surprise?
I suppose that’s not a bad idea. His hitting since coming back from LV really has projected mid 20 HR power, so if he wasn’t a complete hack in the field … obviously its just pie-in-sky right now.
Bold move Sandy,now make another bold move and fire Terry Collins!
The fact that Herera had to be added to the 40 man roster this winter, is replacing a second baseman that may become too expensive for the Mets in the near future, and is highly touted prospect substantiates that it was the correct move to make now. I really don’t see a downside. If he tanks like Flores, then most will see it as a talented 20 year old kid that just wasn’t ready yet. The experience alone will benefit him for the next time. If he shows some positive attributes and ability, like he has done on all levels of his minor league career, then the Mets go into the winter with an ace in the hole. Lost Septembers are for evaluation.
I agree Metsense, there is very little lost in this experiment. Herrera will most likely only play 2B, and that may be for the best as scouts have said he doesn’t have the build for SS. He’s been playing 2B most of the season, so why change it now. He should only be playing 2B, and if we really want to try him at SS, we have next year in the minors to try that. The fact that he’s in NY is a nice enough surprise, so let’s just enjoy the view while we have it. He, and a Duda dinger are about the only things to watch for right now.
Vegas might be playing a part too. Players numbers get so inflated there. That place makes Andrew Brown look like a stud. Putting The Dilson there doesn’t prove all that much. I get its about the competition, since Triple A is full of former major leaguers or minor leaguers with a lot of experience, but when you factor in how he dominated the more difficult jump, high A to AA, and the need to put him on the forty man anyway, this makes all the more sense.
This last month is all about evaluation.