The preliminary rounds of “expectation management” have begun.
The 2015 MLB schedules have been released and naturally, any fan who roots for a non-contender shifts his or her vision shifts in that direction. As Met fans, many of us have been playing “wait-til-next-year” since the beginning of June, having grown disgusted with the broken promise of 2014. Coincidentally, GM Sandy Alderson has been making himself available to discuss that very future. Right now, he does not appear to be the barer of good news. Last week, in a sit-down with a Binghamton paper, Alderson made some vague references to “evaluating the talent on hand” before resorting to going outside the organization for badly needed improvements at both the shortstop and left field positions.
A collective, deep and slightly despairing “uh-oh” could then be heard from the team’s fans. There go those darn goal posts again. No less an authority than our friend Howard Megdal confirmed as much. Talking to the media yesterday, Alderson expanded on this bleak outlook, all but casting fans’ greatest dread in cement.
While the starting pitching percolating in the system would give most teams hope, this looks like it will be balanced out by anemic offense. Again. Yes, many of us are rightly excited at the prospect of Matt Harvey’s return and the maturation of Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom. And don’t forget, folks, Noah Syndergaard is on the horizon, too! That’s all great and it does put the Mets in the “starting pitching” conversation with the top teams in the division. It’s not enough.
Without being provided the resources necessary to look elsewhere for talent, Sandy Alderson will once again be forced to pump up either talented-but-raw youngsters or over-valued semi-prospects. Dilson Herrera has a bright future. He might have the potential to remind us of a young Jose Reyes. But he’s only 20-years-old and it simply isn’t fair to put that kind pressure on somebody barely out of high school. True, he could turn into Reyes. He could also become Kelvin Chapman. Meanwhile, older young’uns are finally getting their shot. Matt den Dekker and Kirk Nieuwenhuis – both 27 now and rapidly approaching their sell-by date – have been performing admirably in limited roles, and with their speed, both have been a lot of fun to watch. However, it has also become clear that neither will be the solution to the left field power drought. In fact, both may be nothing more than decent AAAA fodder – the definition of “neither-here-nor-there.” There was almost a hope among fans that all three would fail loudly, thus forcing management from its delusion that all problems will be solved without spending a penny extra.
We don’t have that kind of luck.
Like these individual players, the Mets are stuck in a baseball limbo: not good enough to contend for a title, not bad enough to benefit from annual top-five draft picks. For all the praise lavished on the brilliance of the Tampa Bay and Washington organizations, they both had to stink for a long time to get where they are today. The Mets aren’t as bad as all that: more’s the pity. No. The Mets instead find themselves in a spin-cycle existence of 72-78 wins every year, coupled with ever-dwindling attendance figures. Even with some blatant number-fudging, the Mets are still 13th out of 15 NL clubs when it comes to attendance. Ownership seems to be content with that. All evidence points toward the status quo being maintained.
That’s not good for anybody.
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One thing all us us should look at is what is available as Free Agents. And that is nothing. The only ball player I would look to acquire is VanSlyke from the Dodgers. He’s a young power hitting outfielder squeezed out by a glut of overpriced vets. Lets be realistic about what is out there. Last years crop has shown us that Free Agents aren’t the way to go. Let’s stop trying to catch lightning in a bottle…………….
It’s not just about free agents, Rob. Even if they make a trade for a bopper, they don’t have the wherewithal to lock him up.
For instance, let’s say the Marlins — by some miracle — were willing to give up Stanton. The Mets have the pieces to put together a deal for him, but they won’t be able to keep him more than the length of his current contract.
It’s a never-ending vicious circle…
“they don’t have the wherewithal to lock him up”
You mean, like how the Angels and Tigers acquired boppers and then locked them up? I don’t know any Mets fans that want the contracts of Pujols and Cabrera.
Can we point to a team that truly turned around its fortunes by spending their way into prosperity? In my memory the failures of attempting to buy a championship tend to crowd out the successes. Yes, Brian Cashman, I’m looking at you.
Alternatively, can we reasonably point to teams that have maintained success without spending their way to it? Tampa and Oakland come to mind pretty quickly.
The Mets will turn around and sustain by developing from within. We have the cusp of this right now with Herrera/Flores~ if we truly have a 780-820 OPS 2B, and Flores can maintain his numbers since the end of August ~ you have all you need to change completely the direction of this organization.
Will the circle, be un-broken? I think it will.
I hear you, Jerry, but if ownership had had their current circumstances “back in the day,” the Mets never acquire Keith Hernandez or Mike Piazza. You still needed to lock them up long term — not the ridiculous lengths as Cabrera, Pujols, CC, etc., but a substantial investment, nonetheless.
The current owners aren’t able to do that, however much they tell us otherwise.
I think there have been three Wilpon era’s – before Madoff, after Madoff, and recuperated from Madoff.
The before Madoff period gives me hope; that was an organization that spent money. They didn’t spend it well, but they did spend and there really can’t be any denying that.
Do any Mets fans know what the recuperating Madoff Wilpons will be like? I think its unfair to guess. They have only just begun, and the fact that they had substantial talks with the Rockies over two fairly expensive contracts gives me the feeling that they are ready.
I’m hyper critical most of the time, but this morning, with David sitting out the rest of the season, I’m hopeful that Terry will make the right decisions and we can get started fresh.
After finishing with a 69-93 record in 2012, the Red Sox spent over $126 million in free agency that offseason and won 97 games in the regular season and won the 2013 World Series. The free agents they signed contributed 19.3 fWAR in 2013.
I’m sure there are others but that’s the one that jumped immediately to mind.
Seems like a good example. But the point I was trying to make was sustained success; turning around the fortunes of an organization.
In point of fact, one year after that team won 97 games they will likely lose more than 90 games.
Do you think that Shane Victorino and Jonny Gomes will turn around that organization?
Seems to me like the Sox really turned around the organization by eliminating all the ridiculous contracts the year before and committing themselves to a practice of much shorter FA contracts. They got outsized returns on a bunch of short term contracts.
End of the day, it’s not a good example at all. But feel free to come up with another one!
I guess it’s all in the definition.
Do you define success by a team that consistently puts out talented squads but never wins it all? How many 90-win seasons do the A’s and Rays have this century with no World Series titles? Would you rather be the Red Sox, who won the World Series one year and then fell off the next? There’s not any one right answer to that question. I’ve seen six 90-win seasons by the Mets since 1986. Another one (or five in a row) would be nice but I’m ready for a World Series championship.
As for the Red Sox, it could be argued that they failed to follow what made them successful and that one of the main reasons they fell off this year was because they didn’t supplement with outside talent and the youngsters they promoted from within failed to produce. Xander Boegaarts (.656 OPS), Jackie Bradley (.573 OPS) and Will Middlebrooks (.508 OPS) we’re all highly-touted and counted on to be starters and all failed spectacularly.
The 2006-2008 Mets won 274 games and were a team that was heavily influenced by high dollar acquisitions.
The bottom line is that there’s more than one way to skin a cat. I prefer a team where the majority of people are homegrown. I look forward to seeing guys like Montero, Nimmo and Smith in the rotation and lineup. But I also want that team to participate in the trade market and in the free agent market.
Rob you can apply that same argument for Alderson’s wishful over the hill annual signings of recycled veterans. Did you already forget Farnswoth, Valverde and Young? That’s almost 10 million dollars in wasted salaries the Mets can hardly afford. Thank God the kids are getting an opportunity to showcase their abilities. Otherwise this off season you;ll get another group of ancient relics taking away valuable experience and just plain stupidity on behalf of the front office. So can you please ask Sandy and company to stop trying to catch lightning in a bottle?.
And the best news is that the Mets are climbing up in the standings. As of today they have the 12th worst record in all of baseball. Can’t even get that right. So let’s put our thinking caps on and see if SA will forfeit a draft pick for a free agent? Not in our lifetime. So please can we throw away a few games here and there? There is still hope since the Mets still have the Nat’s and Braves remaining on the annual September slide to oblivion. This farce is brought to you by our very thoughtful and honest owners. The Wilpons. May the never see the light at the end of their tunnel.
Oh, doom and gloom, gloom and doom. How many one run games did they lose this year? Get a better manager and improve offensively at one position (plus the addition of Harvey) and they *could* actually contend barring major injuries.
And have Parnell, Wright, deGrom and d’Arnaud all season in top form, hopefully, too.
The link to Howard Megdal’s column sums up the realistic off season approach that the Met organization will probably follow. I will be surprised if it will be different.
The Mets need to reduce salary in areas that are surplus and apply the savings to upgrades at the shortstop and corner outfield position. I am not in the belief that Flores is a starting SS, and MDD, Kirk or Campbell are starting left fielders. The surplus is Murphy, Colon, Niese, Gee,Parnell, Matsuzakis (free agent), EY (non tender) and Tejada. I fully agree that trading Murphy is counter to improving the offense but he is a free agent in 2016 and it would be a tragedy to let him walk for nothing. Parnell is also a 2016 free agent. Alderson has to take this mix of players and transpose them into other players that will significantly upgrade the two positions in need. This is not an easy task and it will still leave questions going into 2015.
I for one am starting to believe that Flores can be an every day SS, but that doesn’t necessary solve our problems, because his defense will still be an issue, and that still leaves LF to solve. I have a feeling we will not see a signing over $7 million this off season, but the depth of the farm is making that seem like a smart move.