The New York Mets have been trying to fill a gaping void at their shortstop position ever since the departure of Jose Reyes. While Ruben Tejada was once thought to be the second coming, he’s proven to be more like Rey Ordonez at the plate than Jose Reyes.
The team thought their prayers had been answered with the call up of Wilmer Flores earlier in the season. He began to struggle as well. However, after given a second opportunity, Flores has flourished. Recently, he had a six RBI performance against the Miami Marlins. It was his second such performance of the season, the other being against Philadelphia.
This begs the question, that with a .246 AVG and six home runs to go with 28 RBI in a limited opportunity this season, have the Mets found their long-term replacement at the position? The question isn’t that easy to answer, unfortunately.
His previously mentioned pair of six RBI games featured a grand slam against a Phillies reliever named Phillippe Aumont (career 6.13 ERA) that’s not even pitching with them now and in Philadelphia (where I could probably hit a home run), and against the Marlins and a very much past his prime Brad Penny (6.29 ERA).
While that level of competition may be questionable at best, he has had big hits off of better opposition. He’s had doubles off of Cincinnati’s Alfredo Simon (13-10, 3.52 ERA) and Johnny Cueto (18-9, 2.33 ERA) and his 2-run homer run against the Nationals’ Doug Fister (14-6, 2.55 ERA) last week accounted for two-thirds of the team offense in a 10-3 loss.
His bat has come alive. While that seems to be great news, the question is for how long? Will he be able to make the proper adjustments to the rest of the league when pitchers discover how to get him out more consistently?
On the other end, he has four errors on 49 games. That’s not horrible, but it doesn’t scream consistency. It averages out to about 14-15 in a given full season. When compared to the only real option the Mets currently have in Ruben Tejada, Flores comes up roses at the plate (.226 AVG for Tejada compared to a .246 AVG that is on the rise for Flores) but about even in the field (4 errors in 49 games Tejada’s 6 in 105 games).
Truth be told, the team has already answered the debate for next season in their own typical, confusing and non-committing fashion. Terry Collins has stated it’s an open competition. In other words, he can’t even decide. Barring another internal option overwhelming in Spring Training next year, it would seem that Tejada and Flores are the only two jockeying for the spot.
Tejada has shown that he’s not the answer. Flores has shown that he’s at least deserving of a chance to prove that he can be the answer. There is one final, and more unforeseen option, however.
With some significant money coming off the books this offseason, and the team in desperate need of a productive, veteran bat, names like Clint Barmes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew, J.J. Hardy, Jed Lowrie and Hanley Ramirez will all be enticing options over a young and relatively unproven Wilmer Flores.
When all is said and done, as to whether or not Wilmer Flores is the long-term answer at the SS position, the answer is a definitive maybe.
The more he plays, the more confident Flores becomes in his ability to perform at the major league level. Don’t forget this past off season he did not play SS in winter ball. I’ll take a .250 batting average with 20-25 doubles, 60-70 R.B.I.s and 10 home runs for next season with Wilmer than the meager numbers that Tejada is going to provide as a fill time SS. Apply the Chris Young savings along with Colon’s 11 million to sign a big bat for LF and the Mets can be contenders for a wild card or more next year.
pete,
Unfortunately, the Mets are also facing obligatory raises which have to be factored into the budget equation.
I do think that Frank is correct and it’s too early to rush to judgement on Wilmer.
Sometime in the future (near or far) Wilmer will have to move to another position, assuming his bat holds up. The two problems I see with his defense are his lack of range and his footwork. His arm is accurate, though not a gun, and his glovework is acceptable.
Just thinking out loud, if the Mets can create an attractive package which would include Duda to fill a hole at SS (or the OF) they could move Flores to 1B. But, the trade (or any Mets transaction) must not be allowed to raise payroll, God forbid.
Flores to 1B? In a division with guys like LaRoche, Freeman, Howard (not his present shadow)? He would need to be quite a bruiser. Although he is in no way a total lock for an everyday 1B, Im good letting Duda stay there and get 25-30/80-90 next year.
What I wonder about is a middle infield that is a lot of defensive liability. Murph/Flores, Tejada/Flores, Tejada/Herrera, Herrera/Flores etc…no pair of those guys makes me very happy.
I’ve stated on other posts that the Mets currently have 10 players eligible for arbitration. You can put a guesstimate of 27 million dollars. That’s why the Mets need to package players where they have an abundance (SP). I would move Gee, Niese, Colon and non-tender Eric Young. That would put the Mets at about 56 million for 10 players. Keep Dice-K and have Montero start the year in Queens. Wheeler, Harvey, deGrom with Syndergaard coming up in mid season as your starting rotation. your set at first, second base, right field, center field, catcher and third base. So yes Norme the Mets have some work to do this off season but at least they will not be wasting their time and money on the bull pen or reclamation projects.
The Mets need to sell more 20M shares so that they can afford toilet paper.
I think its a given that Murphy, Colon and possibly Niese will be gone by spring training next year.
I wouldn’t surprise me if they start listening to trades proposals of David Wright.
Middle of the order?
Which order is he in the middle of? Look, I think the kid can hit a little bit but … boy doesn’t that sound like a lawyer setting you up?
If we’ve accepted him as a middle of the order guy, it means that we aren’t going to address LF in any meaningful way.
Adages aren’t created for no reason, because for the most part they are true.
Throw out March and September stats.They are completely meaningless and any attempt to make something of them is futile.
Flores “judgement period” ended on August 31st during which he had a .601 OPS from the day he started playing everyday. He’s nothing more than a cheap backup/reserve who can’t really hit and is only here because of his name recognition.
You cant use the term BAT in the same sentence with Barmes, Cabrera, or Drew. Hardy’s gonna stay in Baltimore, he loves it there and the team loves him ( I live in Baltimore) Lowrie and Ramirez at 80% of their best years would be a solid addition but they are q-marks albeit less of a q mark than Wilmer, but Wilmer’s much cheaper and if MGT thinks Reynolds has a shot at being a good SS then play Wilmer if/until he fails and give the shot to Reynolds.
If the Mets are seriously going to compete for a playoff spot in 2015 then Flores would make an acceptable backup middle infielder on the team because he has some power and can play 2nd, SS or 3rd. He is out of options so I doubt, because of his age, and the lack of hitting middle infielders in the league that he would clear waivers if cut. I prefer the Mets get a SS through trade or free agency that is significantly better than the current internal options. I am not “giving up” on Flores as he should get another chance if a starter is injured or fails.
If the Mets can’t get the financial resources by trading away some of their “salaried” players and they are forced to use internal options at SS then Flores is a better option over Tejada because he has a higher offensive ceiling than Tejada. It would be imperative to have Reynolds and Herrera split SS/2B at AAA in this scenario in case Flores should falter and a fallback option is needed. This scenario of Flores at SS also reduces the odds of a playoff spot in 2015.
Terry Collins probably can’t decide what mug to use at breakfast. I’m not surprised he keeping waffling over just sticking Flores in as the everyday SS. Tejada had plenty of time to prove he can handle it, and he cannot.
“Tejada had plenty of time to prove he can handle it, and he cannot.”
Not so, not so by a long shot. Either using WAR by fangraphs or BB ref, he’s produced at least above replacement level ball. His wRC+ for his career is 84, but he plays above average defense, especially this year. If his BABIP got back up to even .300 (in his first two years it was above .330), he’d be even better.
He just can’t play in the context of the Mets, where you have another hole at LF and Juan Lagares potentially making his glove carry his bat.
Really … is Jordy Mercer or Brad Miller all that much better than Ruben? Two teams that could be playing in October have something not much better than Ruben picking up a glove every day.
If David and Grandy combined to hit 45-50 HR this year, we wouldn’t have even noticed we had a problem at SS.
His career 84 wRC+ is buoyed by his first 2 seasons, especially his 2011 season. He’s at 80 this year and was 49! last year. He’s clearly gotten worse at hitting. HIs OBP is artificially inflated because he bats in front of the pitcher. He shows almost no speed on the basepaths (14 career SBs).
The only way you want a player with an 84 career wRC+ is if his defense is 16% better than average. Unfortunately, there’s not really a stat that tracks that.
Flores has been worth 1.2 fWAR in just 237 plate appearances. Over a 650 AB season that projects out to a fWAR of 3.3. Tejada has a career fWAR of 3.5 in 1,750 plate appearances.
Also, Flores has a positive defensive rating according to FanGraphs. His UZR/150 is 12.8. Tejada is at 6.6. Now, Flores is buoyed by his small sample, but he makes routine plays at a higher percentage than Tejada (98.5% vs 98.0%). Again, small sample, but he might not have the flashy range but I’ll settle for right at league average.
A league average defending Flores combined with his power potential is a much better play than Tejada. Flores already has more homers this season than Tejada has in his career. They have the same amount of RBIs despite 160 less plate appearances for Flores. Flores only strikes out 11.0 % of the time this year, compared to Tejada and his 18.0%.
Tejada hits has a 40% GB rate and his speed is so lackluster he can’t beat out infield hits. Flores has a higher infield hit percentage.
Tejada avgs 3.74 pitchers per plate appearance. Flores 3.78.
2014 wOBA – .281 (Tejada) v .290 (Flores)
2014 ISO – .060 (Tejada) v .138 (Flores)
2014 OBP (minus IBB) .304 (Tejada) v .270(Flores) – this is the only category Tejada leads
I want someone that is a threat to hit the ball out of the infield more than 40% of the time.
Well … I’m not making the comp to Flores, just defending Ruben for once. You might notice I do say that I think Flores can hit a little bit, and its implied that I think he can hit a little bit more than Tejada. I think most of my posts here indicate that I’m a “Flores” guy.
I’m going to leave out the defensive metrics comparing the two because frankly, you don’t have enough numbers to make the comp. And that would be if defensive metrics were reliable to begin with.
That said, you say RT bolstered his numbers because of 2011-12. During that time, he hit more often in the 1 or 2 spot than he did in the 8 spot. And he hit there fairly well, for an overmatched kid.
And for 2014, I think Brian Joura once pointed out that when Flores batted 8th this year, he did not do any better in OBP than Tejada. I did some back of the envelope figuring and it doesn’t look like Tejada hit any better or worse this year when not in the 8th spot.
Look, Ruben is 24. You said he can’t play in this league, and the facts just don’t support that statement. He can play, and play well enough to be on a playoff team. My guess is that he leaves here, and goes on to post at least 5 wins for somebody else and probably get another 1500 ML ABs.
He just can’t play here anymore.
Both of those last two posts were fantastic. Nice stats Marc. And Jerry, I like your defense of Tejada. But even if Tejada’s 2014 OBP isn’t 8th-spot inflated, it’s still not bringing up his atrocious average. For all purposes, Tejada is becoming Luis Castillo in his last year here. No power, no speed, bad average, and good OBP.
Jerry I think you’re wrong there. Tejada can still play for the Mets, He should be the back up to SS and 2nd base. If Flores goes down with an injury who’ll play SS? I don’t think Herrara is going to start the season in Queens unless Murphy gets traded. I think the front office will concentrate their efforts for a big bat for LF and hope that 2014 for Wright and Granderson were an aberration. And you’re right about other teams with less than average SS’s playing for them. All depends on a manager putting his players in the best possible situation to succeed. Ahem Terry are you there?
Pete – in a sense, I agree with you.
But it would be hard to keep Tejada and expose, say Wilfredo Tovar or Cesar Puello.
and here’s a different number for you Mark.
#5 hitter for the Mets at home, measured by OPS (100 ABs or more)?
Wilmer Flores. A mere 32 points ahead of the guy who everyone says has a stroke “made for Citifield”, a certain All Star 2B.