There are conflicting reports as to the severity of the injury to Juan Lagares. There’s not a ton to be gained by having him rush back this year as earlier Sandy Alderson made it clear that Terry Collins is not going to be judged on what happens the last dozen games of the season. The prudent thing would be to shake his hand on a successful year and let Kirk Nieuwenhuis get the final nine starts of the 2014 campaign.
Assuming these are the final stats for Lagares, let’s take a look to see how his 2014 season played out. By far, the biggest success story was how he became just the second center fielder since 2002 to post a 15.0 (or greater) UZR in back-to-back years. After posting a 21.5 UZR in 2013, Lagares recorded an 18.7 mark this year. Andruw Jones posted a UZR over 15 five times in six years, three times posting a mark over 20 in this span.
In 2013, there were seven center fielders to post double-digit UZR rates. Outside of Lagares, not one of them will repeat the feat this year. A.J. Pollock likely would have had he received enough playing time. But while Leonys Martin had another strong year (8.4) and Carlos Gomez was solidly above-average (4.6), the rest probably wish we wouldn’t post their UZR numbers for this season.
Prior to 2014, there were legitimate reasons to wonder about Lagares being able to sustain his defensive production going forward. And even though baserunners largely stopped trying to take the extra base against him, Lagares put up a monster defensive season. Billy Hamilton has had a wonderful defensive season this year (17.5 UZR) but if Lagares doesn’t win the Gold Glove Award, it will be a travesty.
Lagares was also more productive with the stick, as he raised his OPS 70 points from a season ago. And while his power did not develop, Lagares began to assert himself on the basepaths. He doubled his stolen base output from a season ago and seven of his 13 steals came in September alone. By the end of the year, he assumed a spot near the top of the order, batting either first or second in his last 20 games. In that span, Lagares posted a .337 OBP.
Additionally, Lagares cut down on his strikeouts, as his K% dipped from 22.8 to 19.3 this year. And while he may not have hit more homers, Lagares did hit the ball with more authority. After posting a disappointing 15.7 LD% a season ago, he notched a solid 21.9 rate this season.
The owner of a 3.8 fWAR, Lagares has the top mark on the team. If not for injuries, Lagares might have challenged for a 5-win season in 2014. It’s a remarkable story. At the very least, he should have proved to management that he deserves to be the starter and that there’s no need to bring in someone capable of taking over CF.
But let’s not think he’s an offensive star yet.
Last October, I wrote: “Judging by recent history, Lagares’ best chance at offensive improvement is to either up his BABIP by 30 points or up his ISO 30%.” The fact is that Lagares’ ISO actually went down. After posting a .110 ISO in 2013, he recorded a .101 mark this season. And with his BB% also dropping a small amount (4.8% to 4.4%). Lagares’ offensive improvement came about this year because his BABIP went from .310 to .341 – a gain of 31 points.
How realistic is it to expect a player to maintain a BABIP that high going forward? And if he reverts to 2013’s rate – which is still above the NL average – will management continue to see him as a positive? We know they had major concerns about his offensive ability coming into this season. There’s a decent chance that he would have been relegated to the bench in April if Chris Young had been healthy.
With what he does defensively, Lagares should be a no-doubt starter. But what if the BABIP gods frown on him in April and May of 2015? Will management keep the faith if Lagares puts up a .563 OPS and a .272 BABIP like he did from August 1 to the end of the 2013 season? With no meaningful changes in either his slugging or walk rate, Lagares’ offensive value is highly dependent on his BABIP. If they insist on batting him at the top of the order and he gets off to a slow start – then what?
It’s easy for me to say that his glove makes him a starter, just bat him lower in the order and leave him alone. But the vast majority of people are hesitant to believe in defensive numbers. And if a player counted on to produce provides just four singles a week – what happens then?
But that’s just speculation. The bottom line is I feel better about Lagares now than I did this time last year. The majority of the value he provides is defensively and now he has 1,849 innings in the majors that say he’s a defensive superstar.
The question remains: Does management feel the same way?
If the Mets management is that blind that he hasn’t earned the starting CF job til 2020, then it’s time to start rooting for a new team until management changes.
Marc, Truer words couldnt be spoken. Hes a full on every day major league center fielder. Ill take him over Angel Pagan all day every day and twice on Sunday.
Juan Lagares, your 2014 GG in CF.
Chris: I used to love the summer Sunday double headers….
Good article, Brian. Legares has saved more than a few extra base hits with his glove.
CF is not a question going forward, if Juan is healthy.
Certainly Lagares should play every day if he can put up a .700 OPS or near enough.Don’t like him at the top of the order though.
I think management is 100% behind Lagares to the extent that they even want him to be the lead off batter in 2015. Juan vs LHP has a 387/488/875 line and should lead off but vs rhp I would keep him in the 7th or 8th hole. Lagares had the benefit of high BABIP in 2014 and the Mets should expect his OPS to regress to around .670 next year.That would still be good because of the runs he saves with his gold glove. A problem would only surface if the Mets have another .650 OPS or below in the batting order. That is why the Mets need to upgrade SS and LF to better than average established offensive players.
I remember when Carlos Gomez was playing for the Mets the only thing he would try to do is bunt on every at bat. It takes time to figure it out. Doesn’t Alderson remind us to have patience? Should practice what he preaches. Maybe batting him higher in the line up gave Lagares the role he needed. It seemed like Lagares enjoyed the promotion and the responsibilities that come with it. So let’s hope the front office spares us the anguish of next years Rick Ankiel and work on trading or signing a LF who can hit 30 home runs and drive in 100.
Lagares
Murphy
Wright
Duda
TDA
Flores
Granderson
Den Dekker
I predict that is the opening day lineup
Lagares’ glove can speak for itself. His reduced K% and improved LD% say to me that he’s still figuring out the offensive side. I’m not saying I expect a huge leap in offense next year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts these questions to rest once and for all in 2015. And I’m all for him hitting leadoff, unless an obvious better option presents itself.
Lagares has also been more selective at the plate. He was in 2 strike counts in nearly half his at bats as a rookie and lowered that this year to about 40% of the time. He still needs to get into a lot more 3 ball counts, only about 13% of the time this year, if he’s going to bat leadoff. Just for comparison purposes, during Shin Soo Choo’s big year in Cincinnati, he got into 3 ball counts about 30% of the time.