Making his first start, and just his second appearance in 17 days, Rafael Montero was surprisingly sharp Saturday night versus the Astros. Despite having pitched just one inning in the long layoff, Montero came out and for the most part threw strikes and he allowed just one run. After getting hit hard in his first five starts in the majors, Montero closed the year with a grand flourish. In his final 18 IP as a starter, he allowed just 2 ER, 14 H, 8 BB and 19 Ks. That’s a 1.00 ERA and a 1.222 WHIP.
The Astros are not an offensive powerhouse but they do have two pretty good hitters. Jose Altuve is in a race for the batting title and Chris Carter leads the majors in homers since July 1, with 24 blasts. Against Montero, those two were a combined 0-for-6 with two strikeouts and a GDP.
Perhaps one of the best things about last night’s game for Montero was hearing some of the discussion in the booth between Gary Cohen and Keith Hernandez. Without any equivocation, Cohen stated that Montero was a starting pitcher. It baffles me why so many are so eager to move him to the bullpen permanently. Hernandez, in his crotchety old man style, implored Montero to quit nibbling and to go after the guys who aren’t going to hurt you with the cheddar.
Let’s take a look at what got Hernandez so miffed. The Astros had runners on 2nd and 3rd with two outs. Montero had a 2-2 count to Matt Dominguez, he of the .215 AVG. Montero had thrown a couple of good breaking balls and had him set up perfectly to climb the ladder with a chin-high fastball over the heart of the plate. Instead, here’s what he did:
He threw a fastball on a 2-2 pitch but instead of going upstairs, they were looking for paint on the outside corner. Then, it was another breaking ball on 3-2, again looking low and away. So many people are confused and/or frustrated wondering how Montero had this reputation for pinpoint control but comes to the majors and can’t throw consistent strikes.
No one can pretend that Montero showed the ability to put his pitches exactly where he wants them in his debut MLB season. But the big elephant in the room is the pitch calling of the catcher/pitching coach/manager. While Montero does not have the explosive fastball of Zack Wheeler, he hits 94 often enough. There’s no reason for him to nibble as much as he does.
The $64 million question is: Who’s calling for Montero to always go low and outside?
We’ve seen catchers look into the dugout numerous times this season to get a pitch from the bench. But for the most part, Saturday night it was catcher Anthony Recker who seemed to be the calling the majority of the pitches while Montero was in the game. Given Montero’s overall line last night, which included 6 Ks and 2 BB, it’s hard to get too down on Recker. But the walks came to back-to-back batters and both times the free pass happened when Montero failed to make a perfect pitch to the outside corner.
After the walk to Dominguez, here were the next three pitches with the bases loaded.
Again, these targets were all low and outside but Montero had success because he did not deliver one pitch to that area. Was this poor control or a conscious decision by Montero to attack? No doubt your answer will be shaped heavily by preconceived notions. The only thing we can say for sure is that success came in direct opposition of the game plan.
We’ve seen Montero take step one in his adjustment to MLB. After giving up 8 HR in his first 25 IP, he’s not allowed one homer in his last 19.1 IP for the Mets. In the first stretch he had a 6.12 ERA and in the latter span he checks in with a 1.40 ERA.
Now Montero needs to make the adjustment to trust his stuff and not nibble so much. But that’s an adjustment that needs to be made by others in the organization at least as much as Montero. Ultimately, the pitcher can shake off the catcher, so Montero is not free from blame here. But do you want a young guy shaking off his veteran catcher on a consistent basis? That seems like a bad idea.
Perhaps the ones who come up with the game plan for the pitcher are merely reacting to all of the homers Montero gave up early. If so, it’s hard to blame them too much. However, for Montero to take the next step, he’s going to have to be allowed to pitch to other areas besides low and away. There are hitters you want pitchers to be extra careful with and to miss low and away rather than belt high in the middle of the plate.
But there are many more hitters in the league that you want to attack. Hopefully the Mets allow Montero to do that next year as one of the five starting pitchers on the Opening Day roster. We’ve seen a glimpse of the dominating pitcher Montero can be, one that’s hopefully led everyone to be thirsty for more.
Nice touch embedding those video clips into the post. Fancy. Place is looking good. I picked the Mets for 79 wins this year, so of course it all comes down to today.
Guys, while I have to admit that I would like to see what Wally Backman can do with the Mets, I also would like to see a man like Tony Pena get another shot. Smart, charismatic, and always handled pitchers well, he would be a God send for the young Latin player and the young pitcher in this organization.
As you clearly did Brian, I gave more thought to the Montero situation. I guess I see his future based on some as of yet determined unknowns.
1. What does SA do, if anything, over the winter to make the world believe he’s going to address the major issues of shortstop and left field. If he says it Flores and some in house answer of Kirk or MdD, then it’s not believable. In this case, we rank the non mlb starters after st, and short list him to make the club in the first chance available. This is predicated that one or more of Niese, gee, and colon (NGC) are no longer on the team.
2. The Mets appear to be all in, with aggressive and important off season maneuvers, but none that move NGC . With a staff of Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, and Colon set, Montero and Syndergaard duke it out in LV to see if either can show dominance that would force theor way up in 2015.
3. The Mets believe Montero (and Syndergaard and Matz perhaps) is still in need of development and must perform at AAA even though he is knocking on the door, the Mets early season record notwithstanding. Depending on his production, he gets called up after asg.
4. The dream ends fast in queens by losing a lot out of the gate. We face some bad injury news on the staff, at which point he gets called up to be part of the staff.
In my opinion, he has no chance to make the team in April unless there is a lot of shuffling on the staff over the winter.
It’s hard to see a FA signing without moving some salary. Alderson has his work cut out for him.
I would love to see Montero as part of the starting rotation next year. He has nothing to prove in a return to AAA. He has shown that he can be a starter in MLB. Let it be with our Mets. Trade others but not him………….
The Mets, who apparently have financial restrictions, need to move two of their non minimum salaried pitchers to free up money to pay for upgrades at shortstop and corner outfield. Montero
has shown just enough to be a fifth starter in the rotation if that should happen. (but so could Syndergaard and Matz). Syndergaard and Matz seem to have a higher ceiling than Montero. I therefore don’t see either being promoted until May so that the Mets can have one more year of control on them. Unless Montero greatly improves, I see him being replaced in the rotation at that point by Syndergaard or Matz and being the AAA rotation insurance. This is only one scenario of many others that could happen this winter but in the end it looks as if Montero will be AAA rotation injury insurance in 2015 when all is said and done.
Well, I would argue he’s already greatly improved. He was terrible his first five starts and then pretty darn good in his last three. He doesn’t need to improve – he needs to be the pitcher he was once he stopped throwing so many gopher balls.
I know you don’t really like to discount a performance due to team and circumstance, but his first 5 opponents were the Yankees, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Nats. 2 teams that are going to the postseason, another team that finished above .500, and another team that was only 4 games out of first place when the game was being played.
His last 3 opponents were the Cubs, Rockies, and Astros. All 3 teams were well out of it by the time he faced them. 2 of them were in deep September.
I’d say that you have to heavily discount what he did in his final 3, but even being super optimistic, you have to discount it “moderately”
All of the games count.
I’m not sure why we should somehow penalize Montero for pitching well against bad teams but look the other way when, say, JDG does the same thing. The closing run which essentially vaulted him into ROY lead came against the same quality of competition that Montero faced. For the year, JDG was 6-1 versus teams with a below .500 record and 3-5 against teams with a winning mark.
I’m not in any way suggesting that Montero = JDG. It’s just that everyone’s stats look better when the opponent is the worst team in the league rather than the best team. The hope is that over a full season or seasons that each pitcher will eventually face a similar level of good and bad teams.
I’ll repeat the same thing that I said when a similar argument was used by some when I was touting Jeremy Hefner during and after the 2012 season. There’s value to dominating games against teams with losing records because roughly half of the team’s in the league fall into that category. If you offered me the chance for Montero to make 30 starts in 2015 and dominate the sub .500 teams like he did in his last three starts, I’d sign up for that in a New York minute. And I’d live with whatever production happened against the teams with winning records and wind up with a valuable rotation member.
It’s extremely common for young pitchers to need an adjustment period to MLB. If facing the bottom feeders at the end of the year accelerates Montero’s adjustment period — that’s great. For reasons both legitimate and complete BS, Montero faces an uphill climb in the organization to remain as a starter. He needed to have results to avoid getting buried and he did just that.
I don’t begrudge anyone for remaining skeptical because it was only three starts late in the year against bad teams. That’s a lot of baggage to overcome. I’ll go one step further — I’ll encourage everyone to remain skeptical. But along with that skepticism, give him an honest chance to compete for a rotation slot.
“Hopefully the Mets allow Montero to do that next year as one of the five starting pitchers on the Opening Day roster.” Brian, for Montero to do that he has to first beat out the sixth starter Gee and the fifth starter Colon. I don’t see him getting that rotation spot unless two starters are traded. Then he has to pitch better than Syndergaard and Matz or they could win the spot in spring training. I am not putting Montero down. I think he could be a fifth starter but he has a tough road to do it. I don’t want him in the bullpen in April so he most probably be rotation insurance at AAA and probably will exceed his 7 major league starts in 2015.
Dillon Gee is this generation’s Jim McAndrew.
He’s a placeholder, someone fine to play until someone better comes along. And that day has come. Colon and Niese will both get preferential treatment compared to Montero. Colon because of his contract and Niese because he’s the lone lefty. I understand that. But I neither like it nor accept it.
While all the games’s stats are official and do count, that doesn’t mean that they all get equal weight when used for evaluating and forecasting purposes, in fact, it would be a huge folly to do so.
It’s not so much as “penalizing” Montero as much as it putting what he did into context. I don’t think you would argue that pitching a shutout at Coors is more impressive than pitching a shutout at Citi. Bad teams in September filled with young inexperienced players are even lower on the hierarchy than bad teams early in the season.
Regarding JDG. Yes, we should discount his September performance. But he also had a 2.96 ERA at the end of August in a significant number of starts, so he was doing quite well even before then. September “vaulted” him into the top position because
a) he needed the innings to seriously compete with someone who had been in the majors the entire year
b) The guy he was chasing was in free fall mode
You also conveniently left out that he had a 3.39 ERA against .500+ clubs, all of which were before September; and those numbers are on par with other pitchers who had good years, such as Julio Teheran who posted a 3.74 ERA against .500+ clubs.
Not to ignore the rest of what you wrote, but my original comment was made in response to your earlier comment of
“Well, I would argue he’s already greatly improved.”
and the rest of your argument goes off into a tangent about his value and future with the ballclub, which is for another time and place.
Chatting royals v As under the colon thread from the other day
Name, I tell you what. I propose a wager. If Montero pitches 100 innings in the majors next year, he’ll have a better ERA than the 4.00 that Dillon Gee had this year in 137 innings. He’ll have a better ERA than the 3.91 lifetime ERA that Gee has. And he’ll have a better ERA than the 3.85 mark Gee has posted in the past three years.
He’ll have a better ERA than the 4.09 Colon posted this year in 200+ innings. He’ll have a better mark than his lifetime 3.95 ERA.
And he’ll have a better mark than Niese’s 3.87 lifetime mark.
If he pitches 100 innings, he’ll have to face a bunch of teams that don’t suck, the ones that pounded him this year. If he pitches 100 innings, the majority will come in non-September action, the ones that prove manhood.
I bet you a $25 Baseball-Reference sponsorship that Montero’s ERA will be under 3.85 if he pitches at least 100 innings in the majors.
And he’ll do it for a whole lot less than 11 or 8.25 or 5 million dollars. By the way way isn’t anyone complaining about Colon’s performance? His ERA going up by almost 1.5 runs in the National League where most teams 8 and 9 hitter are automatic outs as opposed to the AL with the DH. I know we should be realistic but paying a front end starter 11 million so he can pitch to a 4+ ERA?
The problem is that there is no one obviously who will be gone to glove him 15 starts to find out.
But I’m done betting with you!
“:By the way way isn’t anyone complaining about Colon’s performance?”
I have been consistently complaining the entire year, but no one wants to listen.
People still think that he could still be worth something as part of a trade package, when we’d be lucky just to get the contract off our hands.
I wouldn’t take that bet for 2 reasons.
1) In order for Montero to get to 100 innings, he would have done quite well, otherwise he would be sent back to the minors or to the bullpen and not have gotten to 100 and the stats back it up.
In 2014, of the 73 NL pitchers who had at least 100 innings, 47 of them (62%) had an ERA of less than 3.85. If i take out the 4 Rockies pitchers, we’re talking about 47/69 (68%), who had less than 3.85 ERA. Therefore, the odds are heavily in your favor.
2) I do believe Montero has the potential to be a good SP. What i don’t think, is that what he showed us in September was an “improvement”. His increased “success”, in my opinion, had more to do with the decrease in level of talent on the opposition.
His approach from earlier in the season and the at the end was still the same. He was still nibbling and had similar pitch sequences. Whatever plagued him at the beginning of the year didn’t go away.
But that doesn’t mean an offseason of rest and a new season couldn’t change that. Familia came into this year as someone who hadn’t shown any ability to throw strikes, but he was able to cut his walk rate in half.
To repeat again.
I think Montero should be a SP.
I don’t think Montero “improved” during September
Great article! I think Montero is definitely a starting pitcher, but he definitely has to use his fastball more to set up those breaking pitches. I can’t pretend to know who’s going to be in the starting five next season, but I’ll guess Montero has a roughly 35% chance of starting the year with the big club. One trade, and that could drastically change though.
It’s not that Montero needs to trust his stuff. It’s TC and DW who need to trust Montero and tell him to just go out there and stop worrying. You don’t need to nibble. Your stuff is good enough. That’s why I’ve been clamoring all season for the Mets to acquire a veteran back up catcher who doesn’t need permission from the dugout to call a pitch and whom the pitchers trust his experience.
I’ll stand up and say that no, his stuff
…………………………………………………isn’t good enough.
His release point is too low, the trajectory too flat because he’s too short and he has neither the speed nor the movement on his cheese to make it happen consistently. His 94 heat will eventually get crushed if batters aren’t peaking outside, and what happened early on will get repeated over a longer haul by professional hitters.
Not a single thing has changed about Montero, results from pitching against some weak lineups to the contrary. A quick look at his game log indicates to me that in nearly 50% of his outings he was ineffective this year (depending on how you want to define that). With all due respect toward Brian’s point about his growth path …
First caveat, I did miss the last Houston start. But, after he returned from the injury, he logged 54 innings from July 20th on. He gave up 22 runs in 11 appearances, and in his 9 starts he pitched to a whopping 52 innings and 21 runs allowed. Yes, he got 56 Ks, but it was offset by 73 baserunners. It’s notable he pitched all of his innings at Citifield, and I saw several balls that would have gone for HRs in Philly, Arizona, Chicago or Colorado fall safely into the CFers glove.
To say he improved over a 6 ERA is setting the bar a little low, and I question our manager saying that Montero is a major league starter. Numbers and my eyes tell me something different.
Last note – take a look at those videos up there. It’s not like Montero is close. He’s Harry Doyle-just-a-bit-outside. His breaking balls start on the black and end 6-12 inches outside.
So I’ll disagree with the general concept of Montero not trusting his cheese enough. I think he needs to put that breaking ball in the middle of the plate, so it breaks off the black and I think he needs to trust his breaking ball more.
Go up to the rubber, and say you can’t hit me. Because realistically, I think they can’t and he has the stuff. It’s just a world away from where he is right now.
Hey Name! Trade Colon back to the A’S for a low level player (addition by subtraction). That’s where he had the most recent success and the A’S are not going to re-sign Lester anyway. I have been saying since opening day the Mets should add a veteran catcher who will be able to instill confidence and tutor the kids about opposing hitters.. Besides being able to manipulate a pitch for a strike d’Arnauds inability to throw out runners and his defense (passed balls) need to improve drastically.