With another season of Mets baseball now in the books, the time of the year for reflections on the season that was has began. The team’s 79-83 record, though disappointing, has to be seen as a step forward toward contention, especially when considering the lack of contributions the team saw from David Wright and Matt Harvey.
With those two back and theoretically healthy next year, along with the continued development of the young players, the Mets should be right in the conversation for a wild card spot. But that’s all for speculating about for the next few months. Now let’s take a look at some of the positives to come out of this season.
The back-and-forth argument between who was better, Lucas Duda or Ike Davis has finally been put to rest, not only by Davis’ continued ineptitude, but by Duda’s breakout campaign – finally seeing the field every day for the first time in his career at his “natural” position of first base.
Duda responded to the Mets’ faith in him by hitting .253/.349/.481, clobbering 30 round-trippers – third best in the NL behind Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo, he cut down on strikeouts, and posted a career best 3.3 fWAR.
He has now solidified himself as the first baseman for the time being and should head into spring training with the job firmly in hand, something he has never had in his career. It’s hard to see Duda, who will turn 29 in February getting much better than this season, since he’s hardly a spring chicken at this point, but if this is the player he is for the next few years, that’s a good thing.
After a very promising rookie campaign in 2013, Juan Lagares entered his first full season in 2014 with promise, but a bunch of question marks. Many questioned his bat, and some questioned whether or not he could repeat his stellar performance with the glove.
Lagares did a very nice job of silencing his critics, not only with the bat, hitting to a .281/.321/.382 mark, a marked improvement over 2013, but with his glove as well.
According to Inside Edge Fielding data, Lagares made 50% of plays that he had a 10-40% chance of making, 66.7% of plays he had a 40-60% chance on, and made every play he had a 60-90% or 90-100% chance of making. UZR/150 had him worth 25.6 runs. He led the team with 3.8 fWAR, and made a pretty good case for being the Platinum Glove Award winner this year.
Last, but certainly not least, was the development of Jacob deGrom from a fringy back-end starter as a prospect, to a legitimate front-of-the-rotation anchor. Let’s not forget that deGrom started the 2013 campaign with the St. Lucie Mets and finished it in Las Vegas, progressing two levels in one year. He continued that rocket-like career trajectory when he made it to the majors earlier in the 2014 season.
DeGrom finished his rookie campaign with a 9-6 record, but with a 2.69 ERA, only a shade worse than his 2.67 FIP. His 25.5% K% and 7.6% BB% were both impressive, even if there is some reason to believe we may see some regression next season (e.g.- 32% whiff rate vs. the fastball).
The front-runner for the National League Rookie of the Year led Mets pitchers in both RA9-WAR (3.5) and regular old fWAR (3.0).[1] His emergence this year sets up an opening day rotation that should consist of Harvey, Zack Wheeler, deGrom, Syndergaard, and whichever one of Jon Niese/Bartolo Colon that doesn’t get traded.[2]
If this team can acquire a competent shortstop and right fielder (allowing Curtis Granderson to move to left) either via free agency or more likely on the trade market, the 2015 season should be a good one in Flushing.
Joe Vasile is a play-by-play announcer residing in Paramus, NJ. He is the voice of Wilkes University Football and Basketball for ESPN Radio in Williamsport, PA. He is also accepting donations to help him make up losses stemming from a weekend spent in Atlantic City.
[1] The difference between these two metrics is that RA9-WAR uses RA/9 (runs allowed per nine innings) in its formula whereas fWAR uses FIP in its formula.
[2] Holy cow.
Re the statement:
” …. sets up an opening day rotation that should consist of Harvey, Zack Wheeler, deGrom, Syndergaard, and whichever one of Jon Niese/Bartolo Colon that doesn’t get traded …”
Syndergaard will open the year in AAA …. the Mets will continue to play the Super 2 game with these guys and delay their promotion to the majors to delay free agency ….
Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, deGrom and one of Gee, Colon or Montero will likely be the opening day rotation IMO.
There are many questions though.
Who — if anyone — gets traded? Also, how will innings limits factor into all this?
Right now, it appears that Harvey will be on a 180 pitch limit …. Wheeler, deGrom, Niese, Colon and Gee will not have limits.
If Syndergaard, Montero or Matz are promoted, they will have innings limits.
Niese and Gee cannot seem to pitch a full year without some sort of issue causing stints on the DL.
When Strasburg went down with the same injury as Harvey the Nat’s were told by doctors to limit his innings to 160 innings as a precaution. Which comes out to 25 or 26 starts at 6 innings.
OK…try this one on….
1. Murphy and Colon/Gee/Niese for Brett Gardner–Yanks need innings and a 3b/2b.
2. 2 Prospects for SS Castro— 1 pitcher, 1 Positional player….Plawecki and Matz?
Gardner Plays LF—Bats Leadoff. Castro provides Young SS RH Pop.
Eraff the Yanks have A-Rod coming back to play 3rd base and Chris Headley will move over to play 2nd base. Your Colon-Gee-Niese hybrid doesn’t work because the Yanks will not add 3 average pitchers with 24 million dollars who are prone to gopher balls. Can you imagine how many home runs GNC will give up in Yankee Stadium? I’m sorry but our average serviceable pitchers are SA’s problem. I don’t think Cashman will return that phone call.
You forgot to add Gee into the trading list of pitchers. Though I would like to see all 3 and their24 million dollars traded for a SS and a LF.
That’s Murph and one of the pitchers, btw.
As for the trade—the Yanks have a Leadoff hitter. They need innings. Colon, Niese, Gee provide 170-200 innings. Beyond that, if AROD hits, the Yankees will have a Good Problem—but soundbites aside, they are not planning around him. Murphy provides quality ab’s that they need to fill in their IF.
It’s a trade that balances both clubs.
I would actually prefer that the Mets keep their MLB talent and acquire ready to play guys via Free Agency and trade of younger assets…. but the trades I’ve proposed address the factt that there will be budget limits.
The Yanks have plenty of inning eaters via FA available to them much cheaper than Colon’s 11 million dollars or Niese’s 8 million. C.C and Nova come back from injuries and they have Pineda as well.Their primary need is at SS where Drew is definitely not the answer. So knowing the Yanks they’ll probably go after Hardy or Ramirez. Colon, Niese and Gee all pitched to very high ERA’s in the friendly confines of Citifield.
Pete– who are the cheap, Inning eating Free Agents to whom you refer? I see a bunch of High Prices and, mostly, Question Marks—-expensive question Marks.
Here’s a list of the FA’s
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/02/2015-mlb-free-agents.html
Again…I’d vote to keep all the Major Leaguers they have…. two added players in LF and Shortstop make you a solid contender—with the existing deep and competitive pitching staff. I’d keep all of them.
All the Mets need is a LF who can hit 25-30 HR’s and drive in 90-100 RBI’s. Non-tender EY and you can carry Flores at SS (package 2 of the SP’s and a position player for the LFer) Drop Granderson to the 6th hole. The Mets don’t have to lose time, money or games on bargain shopping bullpen help. That alone should be worth 4 or 5 wins next season. I forgot to add Tanaka to the Yankees starting rotation. Was just looking at Cot’s potential 2015 FA starters. There are nearly 50 starters on the list of potential FA starters. Yanks don’t need a top of the rotation starter.
Name a 25-30 HR, 90 RBI left fielder available, and we’ll talk.
You did say available. But in a trade some players are more “available” than others. The first player that comes to mind would be Jose Bautista. Package Niese, Murphy, Flores? Colon or Gee and a high outfield prospect. Another would be Carlos Gonzalez Who probably could be had for a much cheaper price.