Lucas Duda hit his 30th home run of the 2014 season on the final day of play. It was significant for more than just a career stat line. It is a pivotal piece to the continued development of the players around him in the lineup. The Mets finally have a seemingly reliable source of power to hold down the cleanup spot in the order, and that could benefit everyone top to bottom.
Duda’s 30 home runs mark the first time a Met has reached the magic number since Ike Davis‘ 2012 campaign. Before Davis, it was last done by David Wright and Carlos Delgado in 2008. Four times in 7 years is hardly consistent home run production. Not to mention Davis is now a marginal platoon player on another team, Delgado has been out of baseball for a while now, and it doesn’t look like Wright will be hitting 30 again. All of that is just fine, because Duda has taken up that mantle and is producing big time.
For the season he ranks third in NL home runs, and 11th in baseball. His 92 RBIs are tied for fifth best in the NL and 19th in both leagues. His slugging ranks 10th and 21st respectively as well. More than just proving he belongs in the majors after defeating Davis for the starting first base job, Duda flourished into one of the top 20 offensive players in baseball in 2014. He has solidified a wavering position for the Mets, and now creates a situation where the team can build around a cleanup hitter, something they couldn’t rely on for years. Add in a pitching rotation and reliever corp that should be able to keep the team in a lot of late games, and Duda’s production could help lead to many more wins for the Mets in 2015.
Of course Duda can’t do it by himself, and he’s had his moments of sputtering production this year. Lefties continue to haunt him as well. Had Duda only hit 29 home runs instead of 30, there would be no difference in his impact this season. Thirty home runs simply serves as an impressive benchmark in these days of waning power, and moreover it’s a notice to the league that the Mets are a team to be wary of moving forward.
Duda’s career stats give a confident impression that these numbers could stick around for a while, but for argument sake let’s say this is the best Duda can be, and he will revert closer to career numbers next year. If Duda’s OPS reverted back half-way between his 2014 total and his career average, it would still stand at .800. That would be the 36th best OPS in baseball this season. That kind of regression doesn’t seem likely, especially when Duda has posted a higher OPS in 2011, when his put up .852, albeit in part-time duties. And in three years of part-time play from 2011 to 2013, Duda hit 40 home runs. That kind of power looks like it could increase rather than fall back.
So Duda has proven he can hit for power in the past, and while often playing out of position, and in part-time duties. He beat out the incumbent first baseman, and put up career-best numbers to show for it. He only turns 29 next year and is still in the prime of his power years. Oh, and the fences will be moved in next season, which can only help Duda’s future home run output. It stands to reason then that 30 home runs is not only repeatable for Duda, but realistically could be greatly improved upon.
A friend visited recently and after revealing that Duda just crossed the 30 threshold his eyes went wide as he replied, “Really?” It looks like fans around the league are in for an eye-opening experience if Duda continues to develop as a hitter much further. And it will serve the Mets as a huge bonus to have this kind of power behind a crop of young arms and position players coming up through the farm system in the near future. It makes it easier for Travis d’Arnaud, Curtis Granderson and Wright to fill in the roles around him if they know they have a big bopper doing damage in the heart of the lineup.
So the number 30 is not only an honor for Duda, but it creates a clearer path to a winning ballclub for the Mets next year. Other pieces will surely be needed, but one enormous cog has been found. In the meantime, our quiet giant can remain mum. His bat is doing all the talking necessary.
Duda was the team’s best offensive player this year. The Mets will have three years of team control left. His solid OPS career avg of .786 and capability to hit 24+ homeruns per year should make him a strong candidate for an extension. He hasn’t tasted the big money yet (only $ 3.6m) so the Mets should buy out his remaining arb years and tack on two more and then add some option years similar to the Niese contract. Power is in strong demand and the Mets do not show a minor league replacement with that power in the immediate future.
Symbolically the 30 homeruns established Lucas as a power hitter. I enjoyed your article.
Duda fixes a huge hole for the Mets. But it won’t make any difference unless Wright and Granderson also hit and hit for power.
Murphy has to be traded with Flores switching to 2B and a true SS brought in. Hopefully Reynolds shows enough in spring training to stick in the majors.
The bat the Mets could really use is Puello. He had a bad year but I think he did enough in 2013 for the Mets to protect him and not lose him in Rule 5. I would love the Mets to give this kid at least 1 more year.
I am using only in-house players because I don’t think the Mets will spend on a significant player during the winter.
So with that in mind:
Lagares CF
den Dekker RF
Wright
Duda
d’Arnaud
Granderson LF (he has no business in RF with that girl’s arm)
Flores 2B
Reynolds
Harvey, deGrom, Niese, Wheeler, Montero up to the All Star.
Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Montero, Syndergaard after All Star.
Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Sydnergaard/Montero, Matz after 2016
The best from Montero or Syndergaard to the rotation with the other heading to the BP.
Duda from just based on his pure stats looks like a very productive first basemen, which he was. When you look at his splits though, he was very much unproductive. 125 out of 596 of his plate appearances this season were against lefties and he only had 20 hits and 11 walks through those 125 plate appearances. I’m not saying that the Mets should go out and get a new first basemen because there are bigger areas of weakness on the team, but it should be looked into as to why Duda hit lefties so poorly and what can be done about it. Whether it be a focus of the future hitting coach to help Duda be serviceable against lefties or look to Plawecki moving to first because of d’Arnaud’s success behind the plate.
2014 was a year to celebrate the rescue of the season by a number of unheralded Mets, and Lucas Duda was high on that list. We fans should cheer like crazy for Duda. However, before we get the cart ahead of the horse, I think we need to have a caution before extending him or saying that that 1B is solved long term. I’ll be happier when we see this validated in 2015 before knowing what we really have. Im optimistic by the way…but cautiously so.
I was looking at Duda’s batted ball map (see link below, its awesome!), and not sure how much moving the fences in will help Duda…when he latches on, he tends to absolutely crush the ball. It looks like a couple more at home for him with the fences moved in a tad.
http://katron.org/projects/baseball/hit-location/
My guess is Duda explodes next year. His three year combined numbers against LHP 2011-2013 included a .311/.346/.657 OPS on 290 ABs.
I’d think he’d regress upwards in his LHP ability, and retain almost all of his RHP ability.
Between Duda and D’arnaud, I’d think 54-62 HR would be about right. When you look around the league, you realize how few combo’s combined for numbers like that.
Go one step further, I don’t think there is a foursome capable of the power of Granderson and David and those two in the NL. Those four, they should get you to 100-110 HR *easily*.
I like Lucas Duda, am happy for his success. But.
If they keep running Duda out there against the best lefthanders they’re just setting him up for reduced production. The man has never hit lefthanders well.
I say, open next season with Kevin Plawecki on the team, him having spent most of his winter working out in St Luce learning how to play first base. Then Plawecki could spell d”Arnaud, say three times every two weeks, plus man first base against the better lefthanders, plus pinch hitting and DH work against lefty’s. A side benefit would be in keeping Travis fresh.
Kevin Plawecki should get 350 or so Plate Appearances by that approach, which is actually more than most rookies see. Unless he falls on his face it should result in more scoring, more Wins, in a season when, hopefully, every Win will matter.