Heading into the offseason, the chorus that’s been beaten to death by pundits, fans, and pretty much everyone, is that the Mets need to upgrade at both shortstop and left field going into 2015 if they want to compete.
The consensus seems to be that what the Mets got out of those two positions in 2014 was somewhere between “the worst thing ever seen” and “the worst thing ever seen on a baseball field”. That’s clearly an exaggeration, but you get the point. There’s nobody who watched the Mets at all in 2014 who could say that those are not positions of need.
What did they get out of these positions?
Consider the following table of production that the Mets got out of their shortstops compared to the MLB average.
| Player | Avg | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | UZR | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilmer Flores | .251 | .286 | .378 | .291 | 88 | 4.0 | 1.3 |
| Ruben Tejada | .237 | .342 | .310 | .292 | 89 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| Wilfredo Tovar | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -100 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Omar Quintanilla | .207 | .258 | .241 | .230 | 46 | -2.4 | -0.4 |
| Mets Team SS | .240 | .316 | .333 | .288 | 86 | 5.4 | 2.1 |
| MLB Average SS | .251 | .306 | .363 | .297 | 87 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
The startling thing about this, is that the Mets shortstops really weren’t that terrible relative to the league average for that position. They were a little less potent offensively, and a little bit better with the glove, and their overall fWAR production wasn’t that far off from the median (I used median for the fWAR total, mean for all other stats).
The Mets shortstops’ 2.1 fWAR translates to the 18th best mark of all teams, with the extremes being the Twins (5.7) and the Yankees (-2.3). Of the 10 teams to make the playoffs in 2014, eight of them got more production out of their shortstops than the Mets did (Cardinals, Nationals, Angels, Orioles, Dodgers, Royals, Giants and Pirates).
The strangest thing about this table is the way that Wilmer Flores’ defense is valued by UZR. The eye test and years of minor league scouting reports are not nearly as kind to him, and of course, we are dealing with a small sample of him defensively. UZR is one of those tricky stats that can fluctuate wildly from year to year based on a lot of different factors, but more on Flores and his defense later.
For the time being, let’s have a look at what the Mets left fielders were able to manage this season.
| Player | Avg | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | UZR | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Young Jr | .229 | .299 | .311 | .275 | 77 | 8.8 | 1.2 |
| Kirk Nieuwenhuis | .259 | .346 | .482 | .352 | 130 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
| Matt den Dekker | .250 | .345 | .322 | .307 | 98 | -1.1 | 0.7 |
| Eric Campbell | .263 | .322 | .358 | .305 | 97 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Andrew Brown | .182 | .245 | .341 | .261 | 67 | -1.3 | -0.2 |
| Chris Young | .205 | .283 | .346 | .281 | 81 | 1.7 | -0.6 |
| Mets Team LF | .234 | .309 | .350 | .295 | 90 | 6.9 | 2.6 |
| MLB Average LF | .253 | .319 | .401 | .318 | 103 | 0.0 | 2.9 |
Once again, the Mets are right around league average, coming in at 17th overall in fWAR, the extremes were the Baltimore Orioles (12.3) and the Philadelphia Phillies (-2.3). Also again, eight of the 10 playoff teams finished with better contributions from their left fielders in 2014 (Orioles, Dodgers, Royals, Athletics, Tigers, Pirates, Cardinals, and Angels).
Unlike with the shortstop position, left field was a case where the players were collectively much worse offensively than league average, but played a good enough defense to mitigate some of the offensive shortcomings.
They were dragged down a little bit at the position by the Youngs, Chris and Eric Jr., but the others weren’t half bad, especially not Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who was a bit of an under-the-radar surprise this season.
Matt den Dekker was a disappointment defensively in left as he looked very uncomfortable, and UZR slammed him as well. At the plate, he was who we thought he would be – not terrific, but not dreadful either.
So while perhaps the Mets left fielders and shortstops weren’t as bad as we give them credit for in 2014, there is still room for improvement and a need to upgrade at both spots. League average production is nice and all, but that gets you sitting on your couch watching baseball in October with the rest of us. If the Mets want to make a push for the playoffs, they need to get better contributions from these positions.
Let’s have a look at what some of the options might look like as far as upgrading.
External Options
The free agent market for shortstops this year is significantly better than last year, with Hanley Ramirez and JJ Hardy headlining the class.
Ramirez is a star player. He is the kind of signing that would not only signal a substantive improvement over 2014, but would act as a signal to fans and the rest of the league that the 2015 Mets mean business (not that acquisitions should be made for a statement).
Though he has struggled with injuries over the past few seasons, Ramirez is not as injury prone as say – Troy Tulowitzki, and has proven to be insanely productive playing his home games in pitcher friendly parks, as opposed to say – Coors Field.
But with a star player comes a star player contract, and there is already speculation that Ramirez could net a $100 million contract. From everything that we know about the Mets, that is probably out of their price range, but if things really are as okay as Mets COO Jeff Wilpon insists they are, and the team is just “waiting for the right player” as General Manager Sandy Alderson insists, then it shouldn’t be a problem.
Ramirez is a guy who you can go out and get to greatly upgrade a position of need and won’t cost you a boatload in prospects like Tulowitzki will. It doesn’t really get more “the right player” than Ramirez if you’re the Mets right now.
While Hardy is a palatable option, mostly because of his defense and what semblance of power he still has left, he is not in the same league as Ramirez, and would be more of a “we couldn’t get our guy, so we’ll settle for him”-type signing, which isn’t the worst thing in the world, because he is in fact still an upgrade. His power evaporating this season is a big red flag though, and he turns 33 next August.
As far as the outfield options go, the most realistic target would have to be former Yankee Melky Cabrera, coming off of a .301/.351/.458 campaign with the Toronto Blue Jays. That’s pretty much a switch-hitting Daniel Murphy with a little more pop and who can fake his way through a passable impression of a left fielder.
The less realistic option is 24-year-old Cuban outfielder Yasmani Tomas, who was recently declared a free agent, and once again, is speculated to possibly fetch a $100 million contract. On the other hand, he’s very good.
Assuming that the Mets have the funds to even consider a contract of that magnitude, it’s nearly impossible to imagine them handing out two in one offseason, and the smarter bet would be to go Ramirez – Cabrera rather than Hardy – Tomas if you had to pick between the two.
As far as things go on the trade market right now, it’s extremely hard to speculate on who may become available, so we’ll leave things at this for now, but the same basic principles apply to a trade – if it’s a clear upgrade that’s a good thing.
Internal Options
But let’s say for arguments sake that the Mets only go out and upgrade one of these positions this offseason – sadly not a farfetched scenario. What would the internal options look like for 2015?
Let’s assume first that they only sign or trade for a shortstop.
Left field would then have to be filled by some combination of what the Mets currently have. That could mean running out either den Dekker or Nieuwenhuis every day, or even using one or the other as a platoon mate with Andrew Brown or – dare I say – Cesar Puello. If they’re going to run a platoon, it is preferable to have that go in left field while keeping Curtis Granderson in right. But if you’re going to just outright play den Dekker or Nieuwenhuis, moving Granderson to left for defensive purposes is probably the smarter move. You could also just complicate the platoon and play den Dekker/Nieuwenhuis in right and Brown/Puello in left when they play and just move Granderson back and forth, but even my brain hurts thinking about that right now. Simply, it is not an ideal situation.
What about if they only get a corner outfielder?
Well then you’re stuck with either Flores or Tejada at shortstop. Pick your poison. The guy who has some potential to be a decent hitter, but is atrocious with the glove, or the guy who you know who he is at the plate (not great) and a solid-but-not-great glove. Also, not an ideal situation.
As you can see, the options to plug these holes that exist within the organization are not very good, which is, I suppose, why they are holes in the first place. There is in fact a clear need to go outside the organization to acquire talent to fill them.
The monkey wrench of reality
Oh right, the reality of the situation. While in a perfect Pre-Madoff world that the Mets are able to sign the free agents they need, that is not the reality that we are living in. The Mets haven’t demonstrated that they have the money to spend now that there are the “right players” available to fix problems.
Mixing the Mets’ massive debts, seeming lack of liquid assets, and Jeff Wilpon’s sexual harassment/wrongful termination suit all together make for a picture of a front office in distress and in dire need of money. Money that likely won’t go toward Ramirez, Tomas, Cabrera or Hardy.
There will likely be some form of upgrades made at these positions this offseason, but they likely won’t be enough to put the team over the top and into postseason baseball unless there is a significant trade, which is hard to rule out.
Joe Vasile is a play-by-play announcer residing in Paramus, NJ. He is the voice of Wilkes Colonels athletics for ESPN Radio in Williamsport, PA. He was the Coastal Plain League’s Broadcaster of the Year in 2014 with the Fayetteville SwampDogs.
Joe you know what happens when you assume? You make an *SS out of U and ME! Where in the world do you think the Mets will have Any money to spend on free agents this off season ? Once again I will state for the umpteenth time. 54 million committed to 4 players. 11 players who’ll have Arb hearings (25 million). 10 players at league minimum ( 5.5 million). And you get the same total the Mets had for opening day 2014. (84 million) So who is this imaginary player the Mets are willing to sign this off season? God! Do you really in your heart believe the Wilpons have the money to sign Hardy or Ramirez to 100 million dollar contracts? Are you serious? And do the Mets play in a vacuum? What about the Yankees, Red Soxs,Orioles and Dodgers? Do you think they may try to sign Hardy or Ramirez? Joe let’s be realistic here okay? The Mets will platoon LF and SS while scouring all avenues for upgrades (bs) and this mystical player who will put them into the playoffs next season.
I am not doing anything other than saying that IF we are to believe Wilpon and Alderson, they should spend. I don’t think we should believe them, and I state as much at the end, but for the purposes of this, since I don’t have their balance sheet and bank account info, I took their comments at face value. We’ll see if they were not being truthful (likely).
To say wilmer flores is atrocious at short stop would indicate You didn’t watch the games he played there,and i know that isn’t true so..,i for one am comfortable with him as our ss next season and hope the Mets are as well. Time to let the kid play.
I think neither position is a big a problem as perceived by most fans. I think Flores and Tejada (I’m skeptical as whether the Mets will offer him a contract) are both young and will probably improve their play. They also have Reynolds and Tovar who show promise. In left field, both Matt Den Deckker, Kirk Nieuwenhaus stat’s are promising. Chris Young and Eric Young put a big drain on the overall statistic of the left fielder. Hopefully Matt and Kirk will improve offensively.
What the Mets need to do here is spread the possibilities.
1. Send Puello to winter baseball, hope he hits and plays well enough to earn a position during spring training.
2. Send Wilmer Flores back to that agility camp he went to last year.
3. See what they are asking in a trade for Castro and fan favorite Reyes.
4. See if there is a trade for a power OF because they can’t afford Melky or Cruz.
all of us, myself included, talk about trading for that mythical power bat in LF. I have a hard time realistically thinking one (other than my dreams of a LA prospect).
Who do you have in mind?
Jose Bautista.
Fine work, as usual Joe.
Surprised you left out Cuddyer as an alternative bat in LF (and 1B, but that is my bias). It could be the Denver import would be the perfect combination of cost and length-of-contract in order to let Conforto mature.
The interest to me is how Sandy weaves a solution to logjams on at 2B/SS, C and on the mound into around 40 more runs scored.
From that perspective I have a hard time with Hanley Ramirez coming to NY; it doesn’t release excess “talent” here. A trade for a young power bat (Van Slyke, Pederson) in exchange for some combination of a SS (to replace Hanley), a super utility guy, and possibly a really talented young catcher … how does that strike you?
From the perspective that the Mets don’t have any money to sign a big name I agree Jerry Grote. If the Dodgers feel that HR is the best possible solution at SS then forget any notion of Ramirez.going anywhere (deep pockets and no holes in them) If not they’ll just sign Hardy. Please add the Yankees and Red Sox’s who will look towards FA to fill their need at SS. So the price is going up and the Wilpons will just continue to kick the tires.
I start with the premise that the two greatest opportunities for “upgrades” are already in the starting lineup- Wright & Granderson. No real or imagined playoff run in 2015 is possible without their return to some semblance of their historical offensive production. If they can get back into form, then I think adding an outfield bat (LF) becomes the priority, rather than addressing SS. Two reasons- 1) Tejada has proven that he can “get-by”, if unspectacularly, and 2 They have organizational depth in development (Flores, etc). I think the path to upgrading is likely to come about as a result of a trade, and the Mets would likely surrender a pitcher and/or Murph in the exchange in order to “make the money work”. Like Pete, I just don’t see them adding a $10-15 million player without an offset in salary (Murph? Colon?).
Raff. I would non tender Eric Young and Tejada. Saves the Mets 4 million and 2 roster spots. Apply the money towards your LFer. Worse case the Mets don’t “upgrade SS and have Flores start 2015 there. Package Gee, Niese, Colon?, Mejia and Murphy for a LFer?. Saving 32- 34 million from the 2015 payroll.
So sad to see work go to waste, but your analysis in comparing Mets production vs avg production has a big problem.
I know you took the numbers directly from fangraphs, but if you take a closer inspection at the numbers, you’ll see that they simply summed up the individual WARs from anyone on the team that they classify as a SS/LF
If you take a look at the the Twins SS, you’ll see they have 351 games and 1211 PAs accounted, which is much greater than any other team, and the reason why they have the highest WAR.
Basically, production from other positions that a player classified as a SS is included, such as Flores’s time at 2b.
The numbers in LF are probably off even further considering someone like Campbell only had 15% of his PA as LF and guys like Mdd/Kirk playing a lot of center.
fangraphs has splits by position [only counting time at position]:
SS:
Mets 1.5
Median 2.6
LF:
Mets 1.0
Median 2.0
Mind providing a link please?
Actually, i managed to find it myself.
Mets SS were 24th in WAR, buffeted by what i think was an unusually high UZR for Flores.
Mets LF were 19th in WAR. It’s very hard to explain this considering they were 29th in OPS, but i guess Fangraphs somehow really values their defense, as this group according to WAR outperformed both the Nationals and Angels LF group.
For those who like fWAR for pitchers…
Overall, last in the majors.
SP: 25th/30
RP:30th/30. only team with a negative value…
I can sort of believe that the SP was ranked so low, but the RP being dead last with a negative WAR….? kinda hard to explain that. I thought the bullpen overachieved, but not to that extent that their peripherals would rank last.
Edit: Just saw that the Pirates and Giants were 29th and 28th in pitching WAR. Another reason to avoid fWAR when evaluating past performance for pitchers
This past season the Wilpons led Met fans to believe that since there were no longer dead contracts on the books that the team was in better shape financially. and would aggressively pursue FA’s How is then that the Mets had an opening payroll of 84+ million this year and 90 million the previous season. And after trading Ike to the Pirates the team had a payroll of 80 million. Joe how is that an increase in spending?
I saw Flores and I never saw atrocious. There were many times that I thought Tejada was atrocious because he has no instinct or arm. Both suffer from lack of range.
I want Matt Kemp! Move Colon and Murphy to clear up $19MM and get Kemp’s $21MM. Further, why would Puello and Brown be the ones that play LF when they both have rocket arms?
Get Kemp and 507-TIXX will start being busier. Put Backman at manager, and I won’t be able to get through.
TexasGus. Last but not least. The Wilpons are forced to sell the Mets by the new commissioner and every Met fan from here to California comes to pay their respect to fred and jeff as they are shown The door. The band plays Happy days are Here Again as the limo gets pelted with eggs.
Dodgers will not take Colon even if the Mets ate (no pun intended) half of his salary.
I really think they could make a move for a Texas SS …. Specifically Luis Sardinas, he’s a young switch hitting kid who plays plus defense, has great (65/80) speed, and has some pop… Reminds me of a young Reyes, with slightly less speed. I would like to be optimistic and say he could start the season but to be safe the mets could use a guy to bridge the gap for him if he needs some seasoning. Ben Zobrist will probably be available, he could start for us at SS til Sardinas is ready and then he could be used in the outfield too… He did put up a 5.7 WAR this passed season. So in terms of cost Sardinas wouldn’t break the bank but Texas is in Desparate need of pitching after the season they had and they may even be more anxious to get back to the post season as we are. I’d give them Jon neise/ Gee, Montero and I’d throw in Flores for Sardinas and that may even be a slight overpay. For Zobrist I’d give him 2 years and 23 million or so, that’s a steal and we’d give him plenty of playing time between short and left field if we get cuddyer to play first for Duda vs lefties and Zobrist will definitely be needed WHEN not IF Granderson starts slumping again… That’s one successful offseason if sandy could make it happen
And where does this money come from Mikey? the Mets are tapped out already for 2015. That’s why Alderson keeps mentioning internal options. For a trade to work you need to swap salaries and not add to the payroll like your doing. Duda deserves the opportunity to play every day. he’s earned it.
From what i heard they will be more flexible that last off season, the thing is internal options are great when you have adequate ones, Texas for example shouldn’t have to go out and sign a SS because they have plenty of MLB ready guys that can play the position and play it well, the mets however do not, its time they go out and get the real deal, and has more to offer the team. eventually you gotta realize that the best way to move this team forward is to use what we have to bring back something we need. thats the bottom line and if Aldersons going to tell us fans to mark his team down for 90 wins again then I’d say its time he go out and prove that to us by bringing guys back. A short stop, catcher and center fielder should all be at least above average defensively. As far as Duda goes we know his value is highest vs righties and that’s ok, he raked this year. Against lefties though he was hurting the team, Cuddyer taking over for him vs lefties would add more value. Lastly Zobrist is needed because we need a utility man and why not him? He’d be a great fit for this team. it would cost around the same amount we spent last off season, and trading for a rookie shortstop would not be adding payroll.
I’m not feeling the “fascination” with Ben Zobrist.. In my opinion> Ben Zobrist is Daniel Murphy. Maybe Daniel Murphy “Light”… And he’s 3-4 years older with declining numbers.. And, no- he’s not a utility guy, much less a “super-ute”. He make’s too much money to be a utility infielder for the Mets, and he doesn’t provide enough wood or leather to start, unless you’re trading out Murph and starting Zobrist at 2nd, in which case you break-even with money and start him. All-in-all, it’s a “lateral” move, at best. Unless there’s a big trade deal to be had, with multiple Players/Prospects and the receiving team eating substantial money in exchange for an outfield bat, I think the Mets fill-in with the organizational depth in the infield.
First of all, Zobrist has a $7.5 million team option for 2015, which is very team friendly for the Rays, and one would assume that they would pick it up, so he likely won’t hit the market. Even if he did hit the market, IF the Mets did sign him it would be to play him everyday, not as a stop-gap solution/bench piece.
Second, Niese/Gee/Montero/Flores isn’t a package that is particularly enticing to a GM, nor one that would make sense to give up. If you’re Jon Daniels, do you trade a top 15 prospect in your system for a soft-tossing lefty with injury issues, a number 5 starter, a promising arm that has struggled to throw strikes in the the majors, and a plus bat without a position that isn’t good enough to DH? And on the flip side of the coin, if you’re Sandy Alderson, do you trade your pitching depth and a somewhat promising bat for a prospect with a good glove and a mediocre bat, essentially the Rangers’ version of Wilfredo Tovar when you can use it to get something better?
If Melky Cabrera comes here, I’ll start throwing those eggs from California. He’s a widely inconsistent hitter whose power would not translate to Citi well. And he’s an atrocious OF.
But Mikey you don’t understand. There is no payroll flexibility. Where’s the money going to come from? Did you know that after the Mets traded Ike their payroll was 80 million dollars. You say why not Zobrist? Well don’t be shocked if they don’t sign him. Do you think the Mets will outbid any team for a free agent? Mikey. The Mets have 54.4 million dollars tied up in 4 players. They have 11 players eligible for arbitration. Add 25 million more. That’s 79 million for 15 players Add 10 players at league minimum (5 million) and you come up with the same opening day payroll as 2014. The Wilpons are in survival mode and are not going to raise payroll. Sorry but in reality the only option for upgrades will be made by swapping salaries.
i fully agree im saying for the attitude of a front office that wants to win, these are the things you must do. if we are really strapped for cash then theres not much to look forward to for this season, the answer is just not solveable with what we have
I truly believe that Sandy is trying to win. i believe he was told that there would not be funds made available to him to improve the team until all the dead contracts were cleared from the books. Unfortunately SA is a good soldier and would never publicly say he was lied to. Why else would Alderson who is a calculating and patient GM go out and sign Chris Young so early into free agency this past off season? A 100 million dollar payroll would not be out of line If the Wilpons would of taken the 20 million from the additional revenue they were getting from the new national television contracts which saw an increase for each team from 25 to 50 million dollars. It just goes to show you how broke the Wilpons are..