Sure, anything can happen…right? Can the Mets increase their win total from 79 this year to 100 next year? A 21 win leap would be the 3rd largest win total increase from one year to the next. The 1968 Mets won 73 games, and then 1969 Mets won exactly 100, a 27 win jump. The 1983 Mets won 68 games, and then jumped up to 90 in 1984 (and they missed the playoffs!), good for a 22 win leap. Certainly the Mets have done it before.
The 1969 Mets were believed to “come out of nowhere” to win that 1969 World Series over the Baltimore Orioles. How bad was that 1968 team that they had such an incredible leap? The pitching was already there, Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman were already an incredible 1-2 punch. The lineup was all pretty much the same, Cleon Jones in LF, Tommie Agee in CF, Ron Swoboda in RF, Ed Kranepool at 1B, Jerry Grote behind the plate and Bud Harrelson at SS. All of these guys were on both teams. The biggest jump was Agee going from a .562 OPS to a .806. But that 1969 Mets team wasn’t really anything special offensively. They didn’t have a player hit 30 homers (Agee hit 26). Nobody had 100 RBIs, heck nobody even had more than 76 (Agee again). Cleon Jones led the team with 26 doubles. Except for Jones and his .340 AVG, nobody else hit over .279. Their expected win loss record that year was 92-70, meaning they outperformed by 8 games, which means the team was incredibly lucky. It was the pitching that was the difference. The team had an ERA under 3.00 (2.99) thanks to incredible seasons from Seaver and Koosman. Koosman’s best season was in 1969, but if you believe fWAR, Seaver was actually better in 1968 than he was in 1969 (a difference of 1.4 fWAR).
The 1983 Mets were particularly sad. 1984 had the obvious benefit of Dwight Gooden and his incredible rookie season. A 90 win team in this day and age would have definitely made the playoffs. That 1984 Mets team was incredibly different than the 1983 team, thanks to savvy moves made by then GM Frank Cashen. The biggest holdovers from that 1983 team were Keith Hernandez, Darryl Strawberry, Mookie Wilson and Walt Terrell. Almost the entire pitching staff in 1984 was new. Ron Darling, Sid Fernandez and Dwight combined for 79 starts. Terrell was the only starter who made more than 15 starts in 1983 and 1984. Again, the Mets drastically out-performed their expected record. This team was even better than the 1969 team, finishing an incredible 12 games ahead of their expected record (90-72 vs 78-84).
So what can this tell us about the 2015 Mets? On the surface this team is much closer to the 1968/69 teams than the 1983/84 teams. The pitching is already there and might even be better than Seaver/Koosman. The Mets have a three-headed monster in Matt Harvey/Jacob deGrom/Zack Wheeler. But adding a pitcher like Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero could make this a lot like 1984. Ron Darling made a few starts in 1983 before going full time in 1984. Maybe Montero could make the same leap. Maybe Syndergaard can be a force of nature like Doc in 1984. Getting a best-of-both-worlds situation would mean the Mets absolutely dominate in this day and age of pitching.
The offense? The 1984 Mets scored 652 runs, the 1969 Mets scored 632. The 2014 Mets scored 629. That was 629 runs with a lousy Chris Young, an injured or missing David Wright for a large chunk of games, and a SS/LF problem.
This 2015 team has the potential to make a similar leap to the Mets teams in the past. Just a little luck, and they can be an incredible team.
68 Mets…Harrelson 2B..???? You sure it wasn’t SS?
Agee did not bat .340…Cleon did!!
GAHHHHHHHH I knew that too! I do apologize. I would go in and fix these errors if I could. I take full responsibility for these egregious errors.
You’re right, I was looking at the positions wrong.
Not with Terry Collins as manager.
They’ve been under-performing their talent with him. And I’m not even talking about x’s and o’s.
Evidence:
They play their rivals (except Washington)–the Yankees, Phillies, very well. Why? Because they get psyched-up for them.
But they get swept by the worst team in baseball: the Cubs.
People like to say the Mets haven’t quit on TC. I think there’s something between quitting, and not playing up to your potential. Another manager can get them up (mentally) to play all teams well, especially the weak teams.
TC doesn’t inspire confidence in the players. They may not hate him (although some surely do) but they certainly aren’t willing to run through walls for him.
To follow up on Barry’s point, the ’69 Mets had Gil Hodges and the ’84 Mets had Davey Johnson. Need I say more.
Marc, I think you are being over optimistic when you say the pitching might even be better than Seaver/Koosman. Let’s remember that Harvey in his first year back from serious surgery might not be the same pitcher we saw in ’13.
Better than Seaver and Kooz….wow.
Better than Seaver and Koosman? I’ll have what he’s having, thanks.
The Mets 2014 rotation might be comparable to Seaver and Koosman, Cardwell and Gentry.
But they have to be better than Zimmerman and Fister, Strasberg and Gonzales and Roark — and that is a tall assignment. The Nats have about the best five man Ro I can name, ever.
The Mets are very fragile right now. Kinda reminds me of the Nat’s just before they became the team you see now. So many variables and the Mets need a lot of luck. If and that’s a big if the Mets can stay healthy (SP & Wright, Granderson and Duda then they have a realistic shot a wildcard. If you lose Wright or Duda for any significant time this team could lose 90 games just as easily.
No question that if the glass shatters right and the Mets have all-star potential in d’Arnaud, Lagares, Duda, and Flores the Mets will make the playoffs. 100 wins? I’m not so sure. The only way that I see the Mets winning 100 games is if Wright and Granderson both return to form, Duda and d’Arnaud both turn in healthy quality seasons, if Lagares becomes a star, and if the Mets rotation turns into a top-3 in baseball.
All possible, but just too big a question mark without knowing if Murphy returns, or if the Wilpons can afford Cuddyer/Markakis/Cespedes.
But gosh darnit I really hope it all works out.
I echo Julian’s statement. If everything can go right in 2015, the Mets will be an extremely competitive team. However, the offensive depth is shaky, and I want to see the pitching staff dominate before I call them better than anything Seaver/Koosman ever did.