Right now everyone is scheming for ways for the Mets to shed payroll so they can add big bats for LF and SS. Those who try to remain a little grounded in Wilpon reality will claim there’s not enough money for two imports so they’ll play Wilmer Flores at short and bring in a left fielder. Which leaves Matt den Dekker wondering what he has to do to catch a break.
By now you know the story on den Dekker. After two (brief) failed attempts in the majors, he went back to Triple-A and redefined himself as a hitter. Instead of a low average, good pop guy, den Dekker put extra emphasis on making contact at the expense of power. It was remarkable to see a guy so thoroughly change his approach.
Coming into this season, at no point in his professional career had den Dekker posted a K% under 20 percent when he accumulated at least 100 PA at a level. In his first stint in New York in 2014, den Dekker recorded a 26.5 K% by whiffing 13 times in 49 PA. But in his second 2014 stint in Las Vegas, he fanned just 26 times in 192 PA, good for a 13.5 K%.
And the strikeouts did not return in big numbers in the majors, either, as den Dekker posted a 16.8 K% in 125 PA in his second stint with the Mets. It’s wonderful not to strike out. It’s even better to get on base and den Dekker did that in a head-turning way. Over his final 36 games, he had a .392 OBP. To give an idea how good that number is, only five hitters who qualified for the MLB batting title posted a better mark in 2014.
The Mets received a .308 OBP from their leadoff hitters in 2014 and they finished 10th in the league in runs scored from the first spot in the order. The team’s leadoff hitters scored 92 runs, an average of 0.57 runs per game. The Brewers got the most runs scored from the first spot in the order, as they posted 115 runs from their leadoff hitters, an average of 0.71 runs per game.
Upon his return to the majors, den Dekker mostly batted sixth or lower. But as he consistently hit and got on base, he moved higher in the order, eventually making 10 starts where he batted first or second in the lineup. In those 10 games, den Dekker scored nine runs and the Mets went 7-3.
While he did not hit a homer in either stint in the majors this year, den Dekker didn’t turn into just a slap hitter. Six of his 19 hits in September went for doubles, and three of them he recorded against Tom Koehler, Ervin Santana and Tanner Roark – starters who had been in the majors all season and not just September scrubs.
Given that the Mets have no money and they need both an outfielder and a leadoff hitter, it’s a surprise that den Dekker isn’t viewed more favorably.
There are legitimate reasons not to be on the den Dekker bandwagon. We shouldn’t write it in stone that he can maintain his K%, his sample size with the high OBP in the majors was not extremely large and it came with an elevated BABIP. But what den Dekker gave the Mets late in the year is exactly what they should be looking for – a top of the order hitter who can be a catalyst.
A lot of people thought Eric Young Jr. was a catalyst in 2013 when he came to the Mets mid-season and ended up leading the National League in stolen bases. Young’s speed was certainly exciting but his .318 OBP was a drag to scoring a bunch of runs. In 90 games as a starter and leadoff hitter, Young tallied 48 runs, an average of 0.53 runs per game or even worse than what the team’s leadoff guys did in 2014.
In his brief trial at the top of the order in September, den Dekker showed a glimpse of being a catalyst. Those guys don’t grow on trees and it’s even harder to get one when you have no spending cash. Having said that, if the Mets somehow acquire a 30-HR guy to play the outfield and move den Dekker to the bench, no one is going to complain.
But assuming that 30-homer guy doesn’t come walking through the door, my preference is to write den Dekker’s name into the lineup and see if he can continue to produce like he did the majority of the 2014 season. While most of that came in the minors, when he did get a shot at regular playing time in the majors in August and September, he hit well, too.
At some point you have to give guys who succeeded in your system a chance. Otherwise you’re left to try and catch lightning in a bottle with Marlon Byrd or Chris Young. Sure, the jury is still out on whether den Dekker can do what he did in his last 36 games over an entire season. But we’ll never find out if we sign reclamation project X again this offseason.
Last year the Mets got off the treadmill of signing an injury reclamation pitcher for their Opening Day rotation. For 2015, they need to do that with their outfield. If the Mets can swing a deal for a Justin Upton-type — great. Otherwise they should give den Dekker his shot and see if he can be the leadoff hitter they’ve lacked since 2011 Jose Reyes.
I am not buying into the myth of salvation via free agency…If somehow we get Tomas or some other masher then I’ll believe it when they actually produce to expectations. ..I agree with you…play den Dekker. ..it’s better than throwing away money we don’t have…I’m exhausted by the Bay and Grander son et al
I agree – Tomás put up worse numbers at a lower level while being older than César Puello. César Puello put up better numbers at AA-Binghamton than Tomás ever has and he’s not really considered to be a Major Leaguer.
Actually, it was just September.
August :245/.351/.306 , 657 OPS .308 BABIP
September: .328/.426/.431, 858 OPS .404 BABIP
If the season started right now and I had to choose between Kirk and Mdd, i’d probably go with Kirk and his power over Mdd and his OBP
I’d definitely go with dD; Kirk is the worse at fielding and hitting. Nieuwy strikes out too much to succeed in the Majors. 30% just doesn’t cut it any way you look at it. And he was bad at AAA too – 24.5% this year.
Giancarlo Stanton is on the phone for you; some guy named Trout is on the other line.
You give up Ks traditionally to get ISO. Either that, or you have Miguel Cabrera in the house. My point only being that 27-30% K ratio’s aren’t a death knell to a hitter, if he offers significant power in return.
Too soon to say that Kirk has the power swing to carry the strikeouts. 2014 could have been a mirage but I think he’s capable of producing a 10% BB rate and a 150 OPS. That’s simply too good a bat to sit in favor of MdD, that’s for sure.
I think there are enough at bats over the season for both of them. With starting pitchers being 75% righties and with two other spots they can play in, both players should be able to get 400 plate appearances to show something.
However, I would prefer a proven hitter.
1. See if the Blue Jays are willing to trade Reyes with a Niese, Murphy + prospect.
2. See what the Philthies want for Byrd and if it is not a main pitching prospect, make the trade.
Those 2 moves completely changes the Mets team.
Reyes
d’Arnaud
Wright
Duda
Byrd
Granderson
Flores
Lagares
Joe, I think we should move forward from these guys, especially Byrd. He is approaching the “magic number” baseball-wise and can falter at any time. Reyes is not the player we remember, but still effective and if Anthopoulos trades him after two years of failure, he will be fired. He needs his gamble to work out, so Reyes will stay there.
Was he great? From when he got the starting job (Chris Young’s Release on August 16th) until one month later on September 16th he hit for an underwhelming .250 with a quality OBP at .384. It was only after that that he raked for a about a week of play and posted a .972 OPS. den Dekker had a quality stint in the majors, but I don’t believe he is ready to start everyday.
I like den Dekker, but this team needs more pop out of left field than he provides. They aren’t getting that from SS, so they need a bat in left. If they don’t sign Tomas and can’t pull off a deal for someone like Bautista, I’d sign Cuddyer for a year.
MDD definitely opened some eyes this summer, but as everyone keeps saying, September numbers don’t matter. I don’t quite believe that, but I would need to see MDD do this over a longer period to be convinced. Maybe Sandy is more easily convinced.