To the chagrin of many, the Mets re-upped their Player Development Contract with Las Vegas, ensuring that their Triple-A team would remain in the Pacific Coast League city 2,524 miles away. While some fret about the distance between the two, the real reason so many are upset about this arrangement is that Cashman field is such a hitter-friendly environment. They worry that it ruins the psyche of the team’s young pitchers and makes it impossible to properly evaluate the club’s hitting prospects.
Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler and a bunch of relievers have done just fine pitching in Las Vegas and transitioning to the majors. So, perhaps the real issue is judging what the hitters do in the desert. Everyone knows you have to take out air from the PCL stats but beyond that a lot of people just shrug their shoulders.
In early September of 2013, we looked at one way of attempting to do this. Back then, we looked at everyone who played a game that season for both the Mets and the 51s and compared their stats. From that exercise, we came up with the following back-of-the-envelope translations:
AVG – 74%
OBP – 81%
SLG – 70%
BABIP – 81%
So, if a player had a .321/.357/.531 slash line in Las Vegas, we would estimate that to translate to a .238/.289/.372 line in Queens. Meanwhile, in 2013, Wilmer Flores put up those numbers with the 51s and with the Mets he slashed .211/.248/.295 in 101 PA. Flores underperformed his projection in 2013, mainly because his SLG in the majors was only 56% of what he did in Las Vegas.
Flash forward to 2014 and Flores had a .323/.367/.568 Triple-A slash number. Using our 2013 numbers, we would estimate that to be worth .239/.297/.398 in the majors. In reality, he had a .251/.286/.378 line in 274 PA. With greater playing time than a year ago with New York, Flores produced essentially what we would have predicted from his minor league numbers in Las Vegas, using our 2013 translation numbers.
Today, let’s look at the same question in a different way. Instead of including everyone who played a single game for both franchises, let’s limit our study to those who had 100 PA or more for both the Mets and the 51s in the same season. This sample will not include guys like 2013 Matt den Dekker and Anthony Recker, players who did not accumulate many at-bats in either Queens or Las Vegas, respectively.
Here’s how our 100-PA group performed in the majors:
| Player | AB | H | TB | BB | K | HBP | SF | AVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flores – 2014 | 259 | 65 | 98 | 12 | 31 | 1 | 1 | .251 | .286 | .378 | .265 |
| Campbell – 2014 | 190 | 50 | 68 | 17 | 55 | 1 | 1 | .263 | .322 | .358 | .348 |
| den Dekker – 2014 | 152 | 38 | 49 | 21 | 34 | 1 | 0 | .250 | .345 | .322 | .322 |
| Nieuwenhuis – 2014 | 112 | 29 | 54 | 16 | 39 | 0 | 2 | .259 | .346 | .482 | .361 |
| Flores – 2013 | 95 | 20 | 28 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 1 | .211 | .248 | .295 | .264 |
| Nieuwenhuis – 2013 | 95 | 18 | 32 | 12 | 32 | 0 | 1 | .189 | .278 | .337 | .246 |
| Tejada – 2013 | 208 | 42 | 54 | 15 | 24 | 1 | 0 | .202 | .259 | .260 | .228 |
| Satin – 2013 | 190 | 53 | 77 | 30 | 56 | 0 | 1 | .279 | .376 | .405 | .379 |
| Baxter – 2013 | 132 | 25 | 33 | 17 | 28 | 5 | 1 | .189 | .303 | .250 | .238 |
| Brown – 2013 | 150 | 34 | 60 | 13 | 44 | 0 | 0 | .227 | .288 | .400 | .273 |
| Quintanilla – 2013 | 315 | 70 | 89 | 38 | 70 | 1 | 2 | .222 | .306 | .283 | .278 |
| 1898 | 444 | 642 | 196 | 436 | 10 | 10 | .234 | .307 | .338 | .288 |
Even limiting this to the players who received a significant amount of playing time with the Mets, these numbers are underwhelming. One thing that’s worth pointing out is that the group had a .288 BABIP, not far removed from the NL average of .300 and even slightly better than the 2014 Mets’ .286 mark in the category.
Here’s how our group performed in the minors:
| Player | AB | H | TB | BB | K | HBP | SF | AVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flores – 2014 | 220 | 71 | 125 | 16 | 39 | 1 | 3 | .323 | .367 | .568 | .339 |
| Campbell – 2014 | 141 | 50 | 74 | 20 | 20 | 2 | 0 | .355 | .442 | .525 | .398 |
| den Dekker – 2014 | 335 | 112 | 181 | 40 | 65 | 3 | 3 | .334 | .407 | .540 | .392 |
| Nieuwenhuis – 2014 | 211 | 56 | 108 | 15 | 56 | 2 | 1 | .265 | .319 | .512 | .310 |
| Flores – 2013 | 424 | 136 | 225 | 25 | 63 | 3 | 8 | .321 | .357 | .531 | .342 |
| Nieuwenhuis – 2013 | 282 | 70 | 131 | 40 | 78 | 2 | 1 | .248 | .345 | .465 | .293 |
| Tejada – 2013 | 240 | 69 | 91 | 14 | 30 | 6 | 4 | .288 | .337 | .379 | .316 |
| Satin – 2013 | 220 | 67 | 108 | 43 | 45 | 1 | 0 | .305 | .420 | .491 | .349 |
| Baxter – 2013 | 187 | 54 | 97 | 24 | 27 | 4 | 1 | .289 | .380 | .519 | .305 |
| Brown – 2013 | 153 | 53 | 101 | 23 | 34 | 4 | 5 | .346 | .432 | .660 | .393 |
| Quintanilla – 2013 | 126 | 42 | 61 | 20 | 25 | 0 | 2 | .333 | .419 | .484 | .396 |
| 2539 | 780 | 1302 | 280 | 482 | 28 | 28 | .307 | .378 | .513 | .346 |
Both groups had over 2,000 PA, although they accumulated more playing time in the minors. It would have been nice if we had as many people qualify in 2014 as the previous year, but it’s still a reasonable sample size. Here are the translations from this group of players:
AVG – 76%
OBP – 81%
SLG – 66%
BABIP – 83%
We see that the numbers are pretty consistent from both of these studies. Here’s how the four players from 2014 to make the list compare using the above translations:
Eric Campbell – projected: .705 OPS; actual: 680 OPS
den Dekker – projected: .686 OPS; actual: .667 OPS
Flores – projected: .672 OPS; actual: .664 OPS
Kirk Nieuwenhuis – projected: .596 OPS; actual: 828 OPS
We see the projections for three of the four were right on the money. And the one that missed had the fewest PA of the group in the majors. We would have expected based on his Las Vegas numbers for Nieuwenhuis to have a .257 BABIP in the majors this year. Instead he had a .361 mark in the category, which goes a long way to explaining his success in 2014.
So, now we have a good rule of thumb when looking at Las Vegas numbers and projecting what that might mean in the majors with the Mets. Currently, everyone is excited about the prospects of Matt Reynolds being an offensive player at shortstop in the majors. In Triple-A last year, Reynolds put up a .333/.385/.479 line in 301 PA.
Using our translations, we would predict a .253/.311/.316 line in the majors. That .627 OPS is less than what Ruben Tejada (.652) delivered in 2014. So, it’s one thing if the Mets invite Reynolds to Spring Training to compete for the job. But it’s another thing entirely if he begins the year as the club’s starting shortstop.
Ideally, young players improve from one season to the next. We saw Flores put up an .887 OPS in Triple-A in 2013 and last year he had a .935 mark at the same level. He also improved his output in the majors, too. Also, these studies don’t factor in that a player goes from playing every day in Triple-A to more sporadic appearances in the majors. We saw both den Dekker and Flores put up better numbers with more consistent playing time.
But it remains a good rule of thumb to remove 19% from a player’s Las Vegas OBP and to remove 34% from their SLG mark to approximate what they would do in the same season in the majors.
Good stuff Brian. The only thing I’d bring up is that Reynolds was raking at the AA level as well this year, so it’s not like his entire success was predicated on the PCL effect. That being said, the (very) early 2015 Steamer projection for Reynolds in the majors: .240/.293/.329, not too far off from what you derived.
The Mets are treating College players the same as high school players. Sending Conforto to Brooklyn instead of St. Lucie. They are underestimating Reynolds ability who played at the U of Arkansas. College Baseball is now at a level close to AA, unlike high school. These players especially out of better conferences are playing tougher competition, than high school players, and their development is more advanced. The Met minor league system should adjust to this.
I have no problem with Conforto’s assignment to a short-season league the year he was drafted. The majority of teams put their college picks at this level.
The real key is where he starts in 2015. I’d like to see him in Double-A. Certainly no lower than Hi-A. If he starts in Lo-A like Plawecki did, I’ll be disappointed.
Great follow up article to the original article. There is “fools gold” in the sands of Las Vegas. Your research will be my rule of thumb for the future. Thanks.
Nashville became an available East Coast AAA facility this year. Too bad the Mets extended the Las Vegas affiliation so early before this option could be investigated.
In defending some of Flores numbers. In Vegas he batter cleanup, In the Majors Collins had him batting 8th. When he dropped him to 5th or 6th in the line up his numbers improved immensely. Also he was on the bench for major periods of time, show lack of confidence by Collins. Young players, tend to question that.
It sad to see that Collins is returning, he has a history with the Mets on not believing in the young players, unless he is forced to by the GM.
In rejecting most of Flores “success” in the 5/6 spot: They were produced in September.
People talk about accountability, and what is less accountable than letting a guy who hasn’t proven to hit MLB pitching to be inserted right into the 5/6 spot? 7/8 is where you start, and if you hit, If, then you move up.
Nice stuff Brian.
Don’t know if you thought about it, but have you considered doing the same analysis but for the pitchers to see if there is a similar reduction?
I guess you could do it the way we did in 2013 where you look at everyone who pitched at both levels. But if we set the IP requirement to 50 IP at both levels, you only get two pitchers, both in 2013 in Torres and Wheeler. I guess it’s worth doing for completeness but I don’t believe it would be as useful for pitchers.
Why have such a severe restriction on pitchers?
Baseball ref uses 600 PA’s as a full season for pitchers. If the cutoff for this study is 100 PA, that’s around 1/6 or 15%.
So we should use a similar benchmark for pitchers. Baseball ref has 180 innings or 760 batters faced for a full season for pitchers. 15% is 27 innings or 115 batters faced.
Montero, Eveland, Carlyle, deGrom fit that description for 2014
Torres, Wheeler, Germen, Burke fit for 2013.
I’d say 8 players is a solid enough sample to merit a study, although since it’s your time that’s being spent, i guess that’s up to you to decide if it’s worth it.
Brian,
I love what you do with numbers, but a projection is nothing more than an educated prediction. It’s not that they don’t have value, but your dealing with human beings. Some improve, some regress, some get injured, some fold, some rise to the challenge.
Given my perception of the abilities of Tejada and Flores, I would give Reynolds every chance to succeed at the big league level. I know there are some who point out that Tejada is still very young. Some point out that Flores didn’t exactly disgrace himself this past year. My perception is that Tejada is what he is and may only marginally improve. Flores lacks the quickness and footwork to be a successful SS.
Am I misinterpreting you when you say your projection on Reynolds means that the Mets shouldn’t bother?
It’s not that they shouldn’t bother but it’s hard to justify making Reynolds the starting shortstop based on what he did in LVG last year. It’s just not that impressive once you let the air out. Let him go back to Vegas and see if he takes another step forward.
The numbers really should be used as a strong guide.
Do the Mets really want to start Flores as the short stop in 2015 ?
Is Reynolds really any better than Tejada ?
After 4 years don’t we know Tejada’s ceiling?
If the Mets want to increase their playoff chances in 2015 then they should go out and get a better than average short stop that can hit and field.
Even with the injuries, I think Tulowitzki makes sense for this team. With Tejada (or Flores, if he doesn’t go in the deal) they have a solid injury replacement for the six weeks that Tulo misses. And they benefit from the 120 games where he rakes.
Of course, they can’t afford him, so it’s not going to happen.
“Of course, they can’t afford him, so it’s not going to happen.”
It makes for a tough discussion of Baseball Moves when every signing, trade, roster choice gets this same sad chorus!
The projection is largely based on agood number of “low ceiling” guys…some of them taking their initial MLB ab’s…..Satin, Brown, Baxter… The nature of most of these guys is that they are highly skilled Non-MLB talents. They would run good numbers at Tidewater, Binghampton, Buffalo….and they run even better numbers at Vegas. By nature, the failure rate is very high.
It may be better to look at Extra Base Hit percentage as a “ball off the bat ” Vegas Factor.
The Pitchers— the big problem in Vegas is not that the results are skewed…and that is an initial psychological factor. The bigger problem is that it eliminates Pitch Mix for very specific Pitchers. Fast Ball/ Curveball repertoire is severly impacted by the atmospheric conditions in Vegas. If you can’t throw a curveball, you can’t work on it….there’s no feedback loop! So….you can deal with the fact that a guy just hit a real curveball 450 feet…..but it’s a longer impact when you cannot throw a real curveball.
This goes well beyond “mental toughness”.
Of course, the model of most teams is to have their “shuttle team” within a few hours of their big league squad—this absolutely blows that out of form. …and, don’t forget, they literally got Tossed out of their good location in Buffalo.
I get the point that the Mets haven’t stocked LVG with offensive powerhouse players so far but I still think the bigger issue is that so much air needs to be taken out that what’s normally considered excellent just isn’t that impressive.
Go back to when the Blue Jays were there and see how their players performed. Adeiny Hecchevaria put up a .968 OPS there and last year he had a .664 OPS with the Marlins. I think you have to put up an OPS at least over 1.000 to really be considered noteworthy. Even then you see that Adam Lind and Travis Snider did that multiple times when it was a TOR affil and neither one of them established themselves as stars in the majors.
The distance factor is overrated.
I remember the Dodger PCL propsects of many years ago—were they in Vegas?…. good players, some of them, but Astronomical MILB numbers
I believe the Dodgers were in LVG briefly but for the most part, their guys who put up the giant numbers in Triple-A played in Albuquerque.
388 AB. 24HR 79 RBI 932 OPS 45BB 98K
390 AB. 24HR 98 RBI 961 OPS 37BB 100K
All PCL players. It’s Andrew Brown and Wil Myers, both from 2012, both in the PCL. Myers is 21 I believe at this time, Brown 26 or 27.
Here’s a rap sheet we know pretty well for comps, for shits and giggles.
453 AB. 15HR 86 RBI 887 OPS 25BB 63K
Wilmer Flores, 2013 at 21 years old.
The problem with comps like this is that at age 26-28, you have established the upper range of performance. Allan Dykstra is never going to be Lucas Duda, because at 27 Duda would be hitting 87 HR at LV, not 30.
So at best, we are seeing a baseline failure number in comparing LV and NYC. When its said and done, putting Flores at 21 into a spreadsheet with a couple of mid-to-later 20s OFers is making a comparison between apples and oranges.
There’s just no sense to it in my mind. The chief indicator of future success isn’t found simply in the numbers, its achieving league dominance at an early age and maintaining that dominance through your steps up the ladder. To that ends: Herrera.
and by the way, to that ends I would argue that Wilmer has
*not*
dominated on his way up the ladder at a young age, although he’s certainly done some things in the PCL that other fine hitters have not.
This article is statistics at its finest, proving an overall point. This 75/80/68/80 rough estimation is just that, a rough estimation. It helps keep us realistic about what the average Triple-A will bring to the Mets. If they outperform that, then we know we really got something. A fine article