One of the staples of offseason talk radio and blog writing is the trade column. And unfortunately, a lot of times this takes the form of “let’s group together our trash and trade it for your star.” There are multiple reasons why this happens. Among other things, it’s hard to be objective about the talent on your team. Additional reasons are that fans are unlikely to know the farm system or payroll constraints of teams besides the ones they follow.
Earlier this month, I read an online column by former AP sportswriter and current USA Today contributor Dan Schlossberg about a potential trade between the Braves (his team) and the Mets. In a deal that he termed would “help both clubs,” Schlossberg proposed that the Braves send Justin Upton and B.J. Upton to the Mets for Daniel Murphy and Jon Niese.
For the Braves, it gives them a big upgrade at 2B, a SP to replace impending free agent Ervin Santana, removes the albatross contract of the Upton with the initials and neatly solves the dilemma of which outfielder to pay big money going forward between Jason Heyward and the good Upton. It works on many levels for Atlanta.
In this deal the Mets get the 30-HR hitter they crave to fill a corner outfield spot. They also get out of the arbitration payday that Murphy is getting ready to cash in on while opening second base for either Wilmer Flores or Dilson Herrera. If we just looked at it this deeply, it would indeed be a win-win transaction. But there are other factors to consider.
The Mets would add roughly $13.5 million in salary in 2015 with this transaction, depending on how large Murphy’s arbitration/new contract turns out to be. That alone probably puts the kibosh on this deal. But following the 2015 season, the good Upton is a free agent looking for a $100 million payday, one that seems extremely unlikely for the Mets to give him. They also get to keep the initials for an extra $33.1 million over the 2016-2017 time frame. Good luck finding anyone to take that contract.
Perhaps the real reason this trade wouldn’t work is the simple matter that the Mets don’t need two outfielders. Even if money was no hindrance (ha!) why would the Mets willingly take the initials over any of their in-house options? No doubt the writer considers taking that contract the cost of doing business in acquiring the good Upton. And if the younger Upton had a team-friendly contract like Niese, that would work. But as an impending free agent, that’s a tactic that simply won’t fly.
My belief is that the writer was on the right track in that the Mets and Braves are potential trade partners, with either the good Upton or Heyward being the main piece going to New York. Both outfielders are free agents following the 2015 season and unless Atlanta significantly adds to the payroll (or finds a trade partner for one of their other eight-figure contracts) they’re going to lose one of them for a draft pick.
How much is a decent return for a guy you control for only one year? You have to take into consideration that both Heyward and the good Upton are under control for roughly half of what they’re worth in 2015. The exact percentage is unclear but without a doubt either one is a bargain this upcoming season.
Mets fans distinctly remember getting a former first-round pick for two months of Carlos Beltran. And Beltran was being paid what he was worth and was ineligible for draft pick compensation. Because Beltran did not help the Giants into the playoffs and the first round pick has made it to the majors and figures to be an MLB pitcher for a decade or more, neutral observers would claim this trade as a slam dunk win for the Mets.
Yet how would the trade be viewed if Beltran led the Giants to the World Series and the first round pick came up with a rotator cuff injury? That was certainly an outcome on the table back in 2011. Each team took a gamble and this particular one turned out the Mets’ way. One could make a strong claim that the odds were in their favor but anyone using hindsight to say it was 100 percent guaranteed to work out for New York is not being honest.
If you were Sandy Alderson, how much would you be willing to gamble on getting the impending free agent? While we know that’s not a move Alderson will make in the offseason, perhaps if all the stars align correctly, it’s one he’ll make at the trade deadline.
But let’s say it was you. My guess is you’re a little less conservative than Alderson. Given the makeup of the major league club and the farm system, would you trade Steven Matz for the good Upton? How about if we substitute Niese for Matz? Or if the payroll isn’t there, would you do Murphy and Rafael Montero? Both teams could probably come up with a dozen potential scenarios that make at least some sense, even if they’re not enough to actually pull the trigger.
Or, what If you’re the GM of the Braves? Are you willing to deal a middle-of-the-order hitter to a division rival? Especially if the return is a minor leaguer with a history of arm trouble? Are you willing to essentially punt any hopes of winning the division in 2015 for a chance to be a better club in the future? Is it easier to find a replacement for the good Upton or Santana?
Here at Mets360, we’re attempting to answer those – and hundreds of other – questions. We’re doing a simulation with 30 owners taking over the 30 MLB clubs and conducting the offseason. My daughter picked a name out of a hat and Dan Kolton will be running the Mets. My team is the Cleveland Indians. Our offseason ends next Sunday night. So in the next 10 days or so, look for articles on how our project turned out.
And who knows, maybe the good Upton winds up on the Mets after all.
Problem is you get the better Upton for only one year. If it were the other way around?.Even if the Braves were to eat a portion of B.J.s contract it’s not worth the risk of another CY reincarnated for 2 years! If the Mets were able to extend Justin as part of the deal then perhaps SA pulls the trigger. Just a thought.If you want to dump bad contracts then take the Uptons but in return give Atlanta Grandy
No matter how you slice and dice it…The thought of bj Upton in blue and orange…makes me green with nausea and purple with apoplexy. ..This guy is now worthless , an albatross of granite…and would seriously make consider actually moving to Australia. ..wait a second, I did that already..Please envision something that is not the next stage of the downward spiral from bay to Grandy to…perish the thought!
Great analysis. I look forward to seeing how your project goes. Thanks for remembering that there are two sides to every trade instead of proposing Eric Young, Jon Niese and Dario Alvarez for Paul Goldschmidt.
Great article! Great project! Thanks!!
Thanks Josh & Steve!
The Beltran Move was for a Giants team that was Completing their team…..in season….a “final piece” in a season that was in the balance. They were presented with an opportunity to compete and they took their shot.
Beyind the obvious measure of “How did That work out?”, the more systematic measure is a question about timliness and appropriateness—-Cost/Benefit in a very well defined situation.
The Mets are still Basic Parts away from competing…those “parts” should be keeper pieces. The high risk/high reward moves should come when appropriate.
How is it different than acquiring Keith Hernandez in 1983? When good players are available at a cost that makes sense — you get them.
I don’t agree witth 1 year rentals for this team at this point—most especially because I don’t believe they will consider signing upton to an extension.
Otherwise, he’d be a fit, as a player. Not a personal favorite (by a longshot!!!), but he’s talented and legitimate as a player.
Your question on Hernandez—- He was aquired by an organization that had the intention and ability to keep him as a long term fixture.
The Mets should not trade Murphy, period!!
I don’t think the Braves would trade with the Mets and instead trade elsewhere. If they would then I am sure the conversation would end for the Mets with the albatross contract of BJ. If you remove BJ and get just Justin or Jayson then the deal may get life. The Mets are looking for a bat so they would push for Upton but Heyward by WAR is the better player. Murphy and Matz (or Montero) for Upton. The Braves get a second baseman that they can afford to extend and a high prospect pitcher . The Mets get Upton for a year who they can’t afford to extend but will be able to get the qualifying offer draft picks. The Braves can play Gattis in left.
Why in the world would we take on BJ Upton? He’d never play. To get Justin? I just don’t see contracts/trades done like this. Justin is okay, but not great. Bad ideas, IMO. Murph was 13th hitter in league, 5th before he got hurt. NFW on this one. Best move we can make is to dump Granderson.
” I just don’t see contracts/trades done like this”
Dodgers-Red Sox and Blue Jays-Marlins 2 years ago?
It’s not too common, but it happens. Usually shockers when it does happen.
I worry a little that Upton seems like more of a masher than the .290-.300 hitter we saw in the past, and I don’t know how that’ll read in Citi. If B.J. comes along for the ride, absolutely no deal. I think the better bet is to aim for Heyward. Good doubles power in a park made for it, and GG defense to put alongside Lagares.
First, I think it’s reasonable to reject completely the idea that we “need a corner power bat”. The Sox, Cards, Giants and Royals – none of them had two bats on the order of Duda and Justin Upton.
Second, the whole trade falls apart at the thought of a BJ. Um, I mean, a trade for BJ Upton, when we have Lagares.
But I think something on the order of a pitcher or two (Colon and Niese?), a second baseman, and a young OF (KN/MdD) straight up for Justin Upton makes that happen.
Right after you hack up from the thought of actually getting into bed with the frigging Braves.
Jerry Grote. Just for the sake of principle I can’t do it. My stomach churns thinking about that trade. Even if the Mets don’t make the playoffs I get more joy and satisfaction knowing the Chipper less “barves” are playing golf and watching on TBS (I know wrong network) the playoffs. Yes Braves fans can keep walking with their hands in their pockets and practice at home the tomahawk chop during the off season. Brings a warm and cozy feeling. Doesn’t it?
Forget about Justin or B.J. The Mets should sign Kate Upton!
🙂