Over the past several seasons, Sandy Alderson has been criticized for numerous parts of his strategies regarding the front office. Of these criticisms, one seems to sneak in and out of the minds of Mets fans and that is his ability to draft quality talent. Brandon Nimmo is finally becoming a budding all-star, the jury will always be out on Gavin Cecchini, and Michael Conforto seems to be the safest pick amongst Mets fans. But it was Dominic Smith was picked in 2013 and was instantly pegged as a future perennial MVP candidate. Although most of this chatter was put to a halt in 2014 after having an underwhelming season, he still holds potential. Even with this forgettable season, there are reasons to remain calm and look forward to his progression.
1) His numbers are actually very impressive
One look at his OPS and the average fan will quickly look away in disgust and not contemplate discussing him as a future all-star. What they will almost certainly look at is the slugging percentage (.338) which is atrocious. However, without the that he posted a pretty solid .271 average and an equally solid .344 OBP. In addition, he has an impressive eye for a 19-year old posting 51 walks compared to only 77 strikeouts in 518 PA. That is outstanding in todays day and age. He hit for a fairly impressive .276 average with two outs and hit .299 when behind in the count. His defense looked very credible with a .993 Fld% and a 9.15 range factor (Joey Votto posted a 9.54 range factor in his Gold Glove season). Through all of these numbers, the biggest eye-popper of them all is clearly his success with of left-handed pitching. After posting an underwhelming .649 OPS versus righties, he was a different hitter against the enemy of left-handed hitters’ with a slash line of .311/.359/.409. Even though his overall numbers are nothing to write home about, there is definitely some talent in this kid.
2) The atrocity we call the Savannah Home Ballpark
Now, before everyone gets all high and mighty about how his numbers were actually more impressive at home than on the road, hear me out. Smith did perform better at home: .703 OPS versus .665 on the road. However, what is lost in the translation is that he actually was still solid with his batting average and OBP (.259/.336 at home vs. .284/.354 on road). This just means that he is a smart kid with some faults. He probably realized that his home park is just not for hitting homeruns-especially for lefties- and decided to play within the dimensions by hitting for singles and a handful of doubles, because trying too hard would result in more outs. While on the road, he thought he could try and show off his power early in the year posting a Omar Quintanilla-esque .508 OPS in 25 April games (15 away). In simple terms, he strived to be great in early and late season which were predominantly away games, while playing smart at home during the middle of the season.
3) Dominic Smith remains a talented young man
Smith is a special kid. He is a first base prospect that has power potential and gold glove potential (e.g. not easy to find). He still remains at the top of the MLB.com first base prospect list and 81st overall. Giving up on a kid that has played just one season of professional ball is crazy especially after being named the “best pure high school hitter” (Mayo) before the 2013 draft. In the end, 177 games are not enough to judge a player’s worth, and giving up on this kid would be a crime.
All in all, the Mets do not seem to be very worried about Smith and have no problem promoting him high-A St. Lucie next season. Also keep in mind that Smith flew under the radar because of the breakout season from Lucas Duda. Just remember Mets fans, someday we could all be chanting this man’s name as he steps up to the plate for a dynasty of Mets teams.
I’m way high on him. I would love the Mets to call him up to Binghamton or even St. Lucie , so he can hit in a hitters ballpark.
In my humble opinion, calling him up to AA Binghamton to start the season would be an extremely risky move. St. Lucie should be where Smith begins and if he thrives, the Mets should do exactly what they did with Nimmo.
I like to identify whether a very young hitter has a strength “as-is”—power, pitch selection, contact rate….is there a core that they are building around? Smith seems to have a fairly good contact rate and some “control of the strike zone”. He is very, very young and you need to be patient for him to have an opportrunity to fill out some of the projection.
It’s difficult to figure out which butterflies are gonna be beautiful when they’re Pupae.
It would also be nice to see him (see him play!!!) before over analyzing his statistical output
And how many times do you think is a suitable sample to see him play?
I’d like to see him hit in a neutral or hitter-friendly ballpark. Then we can judge his performance
Brian… seeing the player play is a method to understand a developing player. It’s probably more important than the stats for a baseline development level. As for “how many times”— I’m not sure there’s a hard/fast answer to this. Certainly enough exposure to have an understanding of the player physically and skill wise.
I don’t dismiss stats and production at all! Certainly, at the AA and AAA levels they become very clearly indicative of what a successful finished player will do as a big leaguer—they become more projectible.
A very young player….I think the stats that show contact and selection and power are very strong foundations to understand what you have as a starting point–and that’s with or without seeing a guy play.
Obviously, tracking and re-visiting stats and “eye tests” is the best way to track player development.
Some things we simply don’t know—“the inside baseball”—what are they asking the player to do???? Are you seeing a hitter or a pitcher working on a skill, or demonstrating production to earn the next level? You don’t know that when you see a snapshot glimpse of either stats or the player in action.
I’m not defending Smith—and his scouting report of 2 years ago includes tremendous projection for a 17 year old kid. He’s not 17 anymore, and there seems to be some question of his trajectory—that’s fair as well.
I was fortunate to see Smith play four games last season,twice in Hickory (once with Brian and Joe Vasile) and twice in Asheville with their short but high right field fence.
He hit similar to Jayce Boyd when I saw Boyd play for Savannah. Plenty of contact, with gap doubles power. Smith never pulled the ball in the air in all the games I saw him play. Boyd was 22 when I saw him, Smith just turned 19 and that is the difference! Smith looks like he is carrying “baby fat” so some serious work out routine as he matures will increase his strength. I also read that family members stayed around him during the season which indicated to me that he was an 18 year old missing home and away for the first time. He is just young, but there is talent and definitely no need to panic.
That’s pretty cool that you got to see, hopefully, a future all-star! If he is truly holding the potential that everyone hopes to one day see, hopefully he can mature on a physical and emotional level to thrive on the biggest stage in America.
He came with high praise and put up solid numbers in his first year straight out of high school, for crying out loud. I don’t expect to be overly excited about his impact in NY for another 2-3 years at best. But I also don’t understand the complete turnaround some people had about his abilities. I think he will progress nicely as a good contact hitter and OBP man, with some power coming later. Is patience just totally lost in this day and age?
I completely agree! I saw some articles that criticized his season as if he put up Chris Young numbers, and completely gave up on him. People need to hold off the knee-jerk reactions.