Our projection review series continues with one of the larger enigmas of the 2014 Mets.
Dillon Gee was coming off a surprisingly productive 2013. He logged a career-best 199 innings pitched, with above average rate stats, his 1.218 WHIP in particular. All signs pointed to a continuation of that trend in 2014, so much so that – in the face of a major injury to Matt Harvey, and various nagging ailments to Jon Niese – he found himself on the Citi Field mound on Opening Day against Washington. He acquitted himself well in that game, lasting into the seventh, striking out five Nationals and leaving with a lead. The first portion of the year continued in similar fashion, with Gee posting a 3-1 record with a 2.73 ERA and a WHIP of 1.063. After his start on May 10, though, he reported having discomfort in his lat-muscle area. Discomfort became a strain, which – in true Metsian fashion – became two months on the DL. Upon his return, it looked as though he would pick up right where he left off, twirling an 8 inning, 1 earned run performance against Atlanta on July 9. That, however, was one of the last bits of good news for Dillon Gee for awhile. He was inconsistent with his command, his record the rest of the way was an abject 3-7 and his ERA ballooned from a low of 2.51 on May 4 to a final 4.00.
Here’s how we thought he’d do, based on his hot 2013:
IP – 186.67
ERA – 3.70
K – 139
BB – 47
HR – 19
FIP – 3.79
Road ERA – 4.16
Here’s how Gee actually did with the best and worst individual projections among our group.
IP – 137.33
Best – Joura (170)
Worst – Walendin (215)
ERA – 4.00
Best – Manners (3.90)
Worst – Albanesius and Flattery (3.45)
K – 94
Best – Albanesius and Manners (125)
Worst – Walendin (167)
BB – 43
Best – Vasile (42)
Worst – Manners (60)
HR – 18
Best – Stack (18) !
Worst – Koehler (25)
FIP – 4.52
Best – Koehler (4.10)
Worst – Albanesius (3.39)
Road ERA – 4.22
Best – Flattery (4.16)
Worst – Hangley (5.49) oooops…
Interestingly, while the injury obviously knocked most of our predictions into a cocked hat, we were pretty close on his home runs allowed statistic. That’s a bit troubling. Clearly, Dillon Gee was not the same pitcher after his injury as he had been. Whether it was an alteration of his pitching motion to compensate for the lat strain or a subtle mental adjustment, Gee went from a rotation stalwart to a question mark in an awful hurry. Now, he’s the first one a Met fan will mention whenever there’s talk of trading some pitching for offense — quite a comedown for an Opening Day starter.
Odds are, he’ll be wearing someone else’s uniform come February.
Follow me on Twitter @CharlieHangley.
If your closing remark is accurate, I hope we remember Dillon Gee fondly. He didn’t have overpowering stuff but went out and battled and was at least a serviceable SP for four years. There’s value to not having a sinkhole at the back of your rotation and it wouldn’t surprise me if Gee had another good year or two left in his arm.
He’s 23rd all-time for the Mets in starts.
I think his second-half hurt his trade value to the point where he’s more likely going to stick around next year. I would suspect then, if that lat fully heals, that he returns to the productive pitcher we’ve come to expect. However, as the review points out, I was too bullish on him.
Of the 78 NL starters that pitched at least 80 innings, Dillon Gee was 54th in ERA, 70th in FIP and 40th in WHIP. The injury really effected him and brought his numbers down. He is a better pitcher than his post injury numbers but 2013 may be his ceiling. The Mets will probably be trading one of their non minimum salaried starters this winter so Gee may find himself in the rotation in 2015 if he isn’t the one traded. Gee will be a free agent in 2017 so I expect him to be traded before the spring of 2016 because the Mets will have better, less expensive pitching options. Gee is a back end of the rotation pitcher that should bounce back to almost his 2013 numbers next year.