Mets360 2014 Projection Review: Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard

We’re winding down our projection review series. Today, we’ll look to the future – a future we all thought was closer than it turned out to be.

Met fans were pretty lucky in 2012 and 2013 – all evidence to the contrary. In 2012, we got to witness Matt Harvey’s bursting arrival. From his very first start, we all recognized a talent that could not be contained, would not be denied. In 2013, we saw Zack Wheeler debut in similar — though somewhat more muted — fashion. Here was another cornerstone for the bright days ahead. So, during spring training in 2014, the Met fan could be forgiven if he or she were anticipating a hat trick: a third highly touted young hurler strutting his stuff on the big stage, showing the world what all the fuss has been about. And maybe even a fourth. Rafael Montero was ripened in the Mets’ farm system from the get-go. Noah Syndergaard came over as possibly the key piece in the R.A. Dickey trade. Both were very impressive – though still rough on the margins – in Port St. Lucie, each made a strong case to join the big club at some point in 2014. History was on our side. History hoodwinked us.

That neither man traveled north with the team at the end of spring training was no surprise. Both had things they needed to work on, and frankly, with the current state of the team’s talent pool and finances, it made no sense to start their service-time clocks a minute too soon. So both went to Las Vegas while we anticipated MLB debuts no later than June 20. Montero actually jumped the gun on that timetable, pitching his first game on May 14, getting lightly cuffed about in a 4-0 loss to the Yankees at Citi Field – a day before another young pitcher made his debut against the Yankees, some fella with funny hair named Jacob DeGrom. In any case, it never got better for Montero throughout the month of May. He made three more starts and didn’t win any of them. A ticket back to Las Vegas was surely the remedy. He made it back and made four more starts and two relief appearances, finally notching his first W on September 10.

As for Syndergaard, we waited for him to make his first Major League appearance. And waited. And waited. And waited some more. We’re still waiting. Apparently, he was deemed to have needed more seasoning than we thought, because he never had the experience of leaving Las Vegas.

For our projections, we put in a question as to whether either would be part of the rotation at the end of 2014. Here’s what they looked like for each guy:

Rafael Montero

IP – 72.33
ERA – 3.70
K – 58
BB – 17
HR – 5
FIP – 3.20
Will he be in the rotation? – Yes

Noah Syndergaard

IP – 74
ERA – 3.50
K – 75
BB – 29
HR – 7
FIP – 3.34
Will he be in the rotation? – Yes

Here’s all the Mets got out of Montero:

IP – 44.33
ERA – 4.06
K – 42
BB – 23
HR – 8
FIP – 5.14
Will he be in the rotation? – Yes and No

And here are those meager numbers, juxtaposed against our lofty predictions:

IP – 44.33
Best – Flattery (53)
Worst – Manners (100)

ERA – 4.06
Best – Flattery (4.08)
Worst – McCarthy (2.99)

K – 42
Best – Ferguson (40)
Worst – Manners (80)

BB – 23
Best – Joura (25)
Worst – Koehler (6)

HR – 8
Best – Manners (8) !
Worst – Hangley (15)

FIP – 5.14
Best – Hangley (4.40)
Worst – Koehler & Walendin (2.37)

I wonder if Sean Flattery knew something the rest of us didn’t. He was definitely bearish on Montero, while the rest of us had stars in our eyes, seemingly.

In any case, the prospectus on both Montero and Syndergaard is largely unchanged from a year ago. They will both go to spring training, perhaps with a better chance to make the big club, depending on other off-season activity. They will be the couple of rotation wild cards, the great unknowns.

They certainly will be fun to watch in February.

Follow me on Twitter @CharlieHangley.