Mets360 MLB Project: Cleveland Indians

Indians fans will be thrilled to learn that a Mets fan had their team for this project. Hey, at least in the last four years the Mets have been run with a greatly reduced budget. So, Tribe fans, keep in mind that it could have been worse.

Hopefully what I lack in familiarity I can make up for with a fresh perspective. To me, there are no sacred cows on the team and no built-in biases. When I looked at the squad, I saw a team with good pitching, okay hitting and rotten defense. My take was that the farm system had one elite prospect and not a ton of ready-to-contribute depth. And it was a squad without a ton of payroll flexibility.

My goals were to improve the defense, especially in the infield; see if I could add a power bat to the lineup and see if one of the two big contracts could be moved. My idea was that Carlos Santana should be either at 1B or DH and that Lonnie Chisenhall should potentially be moved to whatever position Santana didn’t play.

While the future at SS was Francisco Lindor, my belief was that Jose Ramirez could be a competent MLB starter, whether just in the short-term until Lindor was ready or long-term if the hot prospect was dealt. The one area that needed to be addressed was second base, where Jason Kipnis was poor defensively and my future expectation offensively was more like 2014 than his standout 2013 campaign.

Mostly due to limited funds, my plan was to keep the OF intact and hope for bounce back seasons from Michael Bourn (assuming he couldn’t be dealt) and the RF platoon and hope that Michael Brantley kept the majority of his gains from 2014.

Heading into the project, my trade chits were Chisenhall, Kipnis, Lindor and possibly a pitcher. I didn’t want to deal either Carlos Carrasco or Corey Kluber but I intended to at least listen to what others offered. My plan was to get rid of either Bourn or Nick Swisher by attaching them to either Lindor or a pitcher.

With the idea of trading from potentially four different positions, most of the league was viewed as possible trade targets. I identified the Reds and Phillies as good partners and I was also going to reach out to the Yankees to see if they had any interest in bringing Swisher back.

My plans got knocked slightly off course right away. The Oakland A’s opened up with a solid offer for Lindor and, without me asking, offered to take Swisher, too. An even bigger surprise came with what they offered – Jeff Samardzija. Starting pitching wasn’t viewed as a need but it was tough to ignore an All-Star pitcher coming off a 4.1 fWAR performance.

The original offer included me taking salary back by receiving another player and also surrendering two additional prospects. I balked at including the prospects and we agreed on a Lindor-Swisher for Samardzija swap. While not an extreme ground ball pitcher, Samardzija throws more grounders than average, which made the infield defense an even bigger priority.

Talks with the Reds didn’t progress because we were far off on our valuations of Brandon Phillips. While Phillips remains an excellent fielder, his offense has really declined and the only thing propping it up was his performance in Great American Ball Park. I just couldn’t justify what the Reds were asking for him, especially given his age and contract status.

The Phillies were a little more eager to move Chase Utley and I pulled the trigger on an Utley-Kipnis swap. Utley played a full season last year and while his offensive production was down from his previous standard, his defense was still a major plus. And while Phillips would have come with a multi-year commitment, Utley is on the last year of his deal.

Some may consider this selling low on Kipnis. He has three full years in the majors under his belt and his OPS numbers were .714, .818 and .640 while his BABIP numbers were .291, .345 and .288, respectively. Kipnis and Utley had nearly identical wOBAs in 2013, the difference being that Kipnis’ came in what may turn out to be a career year while Utley’s was 14 points below his career average. And Utley was over a win-and-a-half better on defense last season.

From a pure “extract every bit of value possible” POV, perhaps the Phillies should have picked up some of his salary. But knowing that Phillips was not an option, Utley became more valuable and the hope is with some additional days off, including some against a few of the tougher LHP around, that Utley can see an uptick in his offensive output in 2015. Unlike Phillips, Utley did not have a big boost from his home park last year.

Because of the nature of the blind bid process, I was able to add the impact bat that I needed by having the top bid for old pal Victor Martinez. In real life, the Tribe won’t be so lucky as to add a 32-HR, 103-RBI bat to the lineup. He will be a massive upgrade from Swisher in the DH-spot and his presence made it even easier to gamble on rebounds from the RF platoon.

A starting rotation of Kluber, Samardzija, Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer is tremendous. That quintet provided 17.7 fWAR last year, with Carrasco spending half of the year in the bullpen and two other pitchers getting established in the majors. In his last 12 games of the year, Salazar had a 3.50 ERA with a 4.0 K/BB ratio. In his final nine games, Bauer had a 3.88 ERA with 51 Ks in 53.1 IP. T.J. House and Zach McAllister, who combined for 33 starts last year, begin the season in the pen but offer excellent rotational depth.

The lineup is more or less set although the batting order could reasonably be manipulated 100 different ways. One potential configuration could be: Utley-Brantley-Martinez-Santana-Gomes-Chisenhall-Murphy/Raburn-Ramirez-Bourn. Mike Aviles and Zach Walters are around for spot starts/defensive replacements and Walters will be encouraged to get some reps in the outfield. Last year Cleveland finished seventh in the AL with 669 runs scored. It would be a surprise if this group didn’t exceed 700 runs scored.

For salary reasons and personal preference, Marc Rzepczynski and Josh Tomlin were not tendered contracts. But the main core of the bullpen in Chad Allen, Scott Atchison and Bryan Shaw returns. They’re bolstered by House and McAllister. Nick Hagadone slides into Rzepczynski’s role and a battle will take place for the last bullpen slot.

Additionally, Scott Hairston, Jim Johnson and Jake Peavy come to camp on NRIs.

Like virtually every owner in this project, I come away feeling the team is vastly improved over a year ago. Swapping Utley in for Kipnis achieved the first goal of improving the defense. A full season with Ramirez at short will also help. Chisenhall is still a problem at third but with Aviles around we have a defensive caddie and the hope is that Chisenhall will hit enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. Santana and his (-39.5) UZR/150 will not be allowed to play one inning at the hot corner.

Adding Martinez at DH provides the power bat the club needed and solves the second problem. Swisher’s salary was removed which accomplished the third objective. On top of that, the pitching was bolstered with the addition of Samardzija, who will give the Tribe a top three to match up with anyone come playoff time.

The Indians won 85 games last year despite a porous defense, uncertainty/mediocrity in the starting rotation for long stretches of the year and disappointing seasons from 2B, RF and DH. They posted a strong season because of unbelievable years from Brantley and Kluber. If those two can come close to replicating what they did a season ago, this Indians team could realistically challenge for 95 wins. Even if they don’t, a 90-win season is well within reach.