Mets fans are already anticipating the return of Matt Harvey on Opening Day 2015. The rising star pitcher is through his rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery and set to lead the pitching rotation into the next great era of Mets baseball next year. Unfortunately, someone will have to relinquish their slot on the starting staff to enable this upgrade. It’s still early in the offseason, but at the moment, Dillon Gee appears to be the odd man out.
Gee is certainly worthy of being a staple in the rotation because he’s proved annually his capability of being a reliable and productive starter. The 28 year old Texan has fared well in his short Mets career, exceeding expectations while thriving in long stretches. Gee’s unfortunate dilemma just so happens to be as a direct result of the Mets’ strong organization depth in young, talented starting pitching, a label he never really embodied.
Currently, the Mets rotation looks to be filled by Bartolo Colon, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Jon Niese, and Zack Wheeler; the same rotation at the end of last season, with the exception of Harvey. This could all change obviously with the Mets looking to upgrade their lineup by utilizing the surplus of young arms ready in the minor leagues. Once you consider the progress of Rafael Montero, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz have made, Gee’s future in blue and orange seems less plausible. There is the possibility a veteran like Colon or Niese is included in a trade, but without one, it’s hard to foresee a scenario, outside of an injury, where Gee inherits his spot in the rotation; a far out thought considering he was the Opening Day starter this past season.
Gee is entering his first year of arbitration and will probably get a salary bump up into the five to seven million dollar range, a reasonable price for a pitcher who has averaged over 150 IP the past four seasons while compiling 40 wins and a 3.91 ERA over his short career. The market value on Gee has dropped a little due to a perhaps a step back season, albeit injury plagued. Despite his moderate price tag, the Mets cannot afford to pay a player of Gee’s salary to be a long man out of the bullpen. Colon is set to make $11 million next season and Niese is signed through 2016. The value of a viable lefthander in a rotation is usually a consideration when constructing a rotation going forward, another edge Niese has over Gee.
The trade market will dictate who the Mets will move this offseason. Projecting a trade that puts multiple starters in a package to land offensive weapons is foreseeable for GM Sandy Alderson, whether it is accepted is a whole different story. However, even if the Mets are able to trade a Colon or Niese, Syndergaard, Montero, and even Matz look to be major league ready very soon. It becomes a numbers game, and it’s very possible Gee gets traded for a mid-level prospect just to clear his salary. We saw a similar dynamic last year play out with Ike Davis losing out to the more desired option in Lucas Duda. As Harvey, deGrom, and Wheeler look to lead the Mets into the Promised Land, don’t expect Gee to be along for the ride.
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I thank Gee for his contributions to the Mets. I still think he’s an MLB-quality pitcher but he should not be in the rotation for the Mets in 2015. If he’s still on the team, he should be in the pen.
Agreed
I think Gee will be a fairly hot commodity this winter.
I’d packaged all three (Gee, Niese and Colon) for a left fielder and an upgrade at SS. That’s 24 million off the books. Apply the money saved towards the 2 positions and let Montero, Syndergaard or a Dice-K (type) fill out the rotation.
Pete, you need to keep one. Harvey will be limited. All youngsters tend to have inning limits, so you need a couple of guys that can eat innings. I would keep Colon because his value is lowest. Maybe a desperate team can give you a nice prospect in July. Trade Niese and Gee to the Angels for a nice player, or three-way it and get a good hitter. The Mets have Logan Verrett, Montero, or Darin Gorski to fill in the last rotation spot.
Gus you’re paying Colon 11 million dollars to be an inning eater?! Surely there are better (cheaper) options out there? I have been constantly reminding Met fans who post about Harvey in the playoffs. The team will shut him down in late August or early September unless the FO skips an occasional start and shuts him down for 1 week to 10 days during the All Star break. The team needs to apply that 24 million for upgrades at either SS or LF (I prefer LF). They have depth at pitching and can use a Dice-k type for a fifth starter if Syndergaard is not ready.
The innings limit has to be solved for Harvey especially if the Mets get to the playoffs. Why not combine Harvey and Syndergaard’s start every 5th day. Harvey goes 6, Syndergaard 3 and then the next time around Syndergaard 6, Harvey 3, and so on. The starters stay on a routine, the relief corp should get a day of rest each time through the rotation, and Harvey and Synergaard end the season around 144 innings and ready for the playoffs. Just a thought.
While its creative I think SP’S are just accustomed to pitching on a cycle as well as a routine. 6 innings gives you 26 or 27 starts for Harvey. Why not skip every 6th start and give Harvey an extended week of rest during the All -Star break. Pitchers are always pitching with some kind of ailment and by giving Harvey the extra rest you maximize his starts. Use Syndergaard as your fill in starter for Harvey and you can also utilize him as your fill in for an injured starter. That way you have both pitchers available for the playoffs. Well at least you have Harvey available for the first round.
If we’re talking a top quality return, I have no problem dropping some pitching in return. None.
Doesn’t have to be a SS, and heck I like what we got right now. Maybe Maddon over in Chi town wants a new Zobrist, and he’ll take Murphy and some cheap controlled pitching for a fine OF prospect like Soler.
I think the fear about not having depth is overdone. You’ve got Torres, you have at least four guys in the minors that might be able to go, you’ve got 6 starters in the ML.
You can trade a couple.
Pete, my thinking is that you won’t get much for Colon right now anyway. If you do, take it. In July, some team may be willing to offer something nice if Colon is pitching well. JG mentions above how the Mets have a glut of starting pitching. I agree, that’s why I’d move two. But, the two that would bring back the most are Niese and Gee.
Same as you JG. I’ll take a left fielder first. As for who to trade for? Well I ‘d like to see Jose Bautista in a Met uniform. Patient hitter. Good OBP. Has the capability to still hit 30+ home runs and drive in 100 RBI’s You bat him third and move Wright to 5 hole. Grandy drops to the 6 slot and TdA can bat 7th, If Murphy goes as part of a package for JB then Herrara or Flores hits 8th (depending on the pitcher) while the other bats second. Whoever is playing CF leads off.
Pete, I see things a little differently. If I want the best team, I keep Murphy. If I want cheap, I trade him now.
I would love Kemp first, Bautista second. Kemp should be much easier to get, and I would be aggressive if I ran the Mets. However, there are fallback options.
Since I want the best team, the righties are Flores, Lagares, Wright and TDA; the lefties are Granderson, Duda and Murphy. Hence, a lefty for RF (to bump Grandy to LF). Duda does not have the average to bat cleanup. He should be a #5 guy. I would get Ethier from the Dodgers, bat him #3 and move Wright to #4. Ethier has good walk rates and has been a 2+ WAR guy just about every year for six years expect for when he was 1.8 and this past year when he barely played.
I would upgrade the outfield because a good hitting SS like Flores is rare and I would give him every shot to succeed. However, our options in the outfield are replaceable so why not upgrade there?
Duda will reward you with a better average. Just need to sit him against tough lefties. Which is fine because he’ll actually be rested and not burned out by Collins. I like alternating hitters (l-r-l) which forces opposing managers to use either their top bull pen guy or multiple relievers Something our manager is an expert at. It looked like Duda last year played on fumes the last few weeks of the season.
Well, you know Terry is also an expert on playing a player to death and then admitting he should have rested him. It really puzzles me why these bozos won’t get rid of this manager. LOL, how long do you think he would have lasted under George Steinbrenner?
I agree. but if you can find a team to take Colon as a salary dump, then you do it. Alderson needs some cap room because if Colon stays and the Mets finish arbitration hearings the 2015 Mets will be close to 90 million( when you fill in the remaining roster spots with league minimum salaries) And that my friend the Wilpons will gag and raise ticket prices. Niese.Gee and? for your left fielder.
Gee (and Mejia?) for Kemp.
Niese and Mejia (and MDD?) for Bautista.
Gee for Ethier.
You need to add a MLB bat to replace Bautista (Murphy?)
They don’t need offense. Let them sign Chris Davis, I think we’re giving enough. Don’t you?
Turn your chair around Gus and look at it from the Toronto GM point of view. After you make the move you still have to go and find a player in free agency to fill the void in left field and can bat third. You need to replace Bautista’s offense somewhere in your trade. Say Murphy, Niese and Mejia. Encarnacion plays first and is more reliable and cheaper (Davis has Scot Boras as his agent and is in his final year of arbitration while Encarnacion gets 10 million in 2015) I was wondering if the 3 players I gave might be a better fit for the Dodgers?
Normally I think your posts are spot on, but …
Just so we all appreciate who Jose Bautista is, beyond the *35* HR he hit last year …
In the last three years, for players with 1500 ABs or more, he is 9th in wRC+. Whomever he plays for next year will control him at a reasonable price for 2016 as well. On a price/productivity level, he is one of the top 10-14 players in all of baseball.
And while there is some supply of pitching, there is absolutely none of players with power. Your deal for JB starts at JdG, and probably includes Matz and Plawecki.
With good reason. There would be every reason to believe that Bautista, in 2015 and 2016 would provide you with between 7-12 WAR, and from LF those are the sorts of WAR that put you into the playoffs, because they are incremental wins. You got zero from LF last year.
New GM for the Dodgers so I don’t know where he’ll begin to make his mark. i think may try to move Crawford or Eithier first. Purely speculative on my behalf. Beckett retired and I would think that their need for a quality starter is a good match for the Mets. Especially now that their bitter rivals the Giants have won the World Series.
I agree with you here across the board. If it was me, I’d keep Kemp and get MDD to play CF, get rid of Crawford and Ethier.
Find out what LA wants for Scott Van Slyke. Next to Soler he is the best young positional talent in baseball, and together they are the best targets for the Mets in all of baseball.
For either one, I’d give up Noah and Niese in a NY second, and for Soler I’d toss in Plawecki.
Do you see Alderson making a trade for either player? I sure hope so! The future eventually has to be now.
He identified the other day that LF was an “obvious” position of need and that we don’t have “multiple, multiple” problem areas.
You have to know that LF is for Mike Conforto in 2016 or 2017, so while I’d like to see either Soler or Van Slyke I think the position is addressed by a new contract than a trade.
But I do think Sandy will make a move.
Zero. And whoever recommended him would be joinng him on the unemployment line. Collins is the exact opposite of Joe Maddon.
There are options out there. My only question is whether or not SA is willing to part with Any Met youth? Or will he sit on his hands trying to squeeze blood out of a stone. Hey Jerry Grote would you trade for Bautista? And if so what would you consider a fair deal?
Good question Pete; I’m not sure I would trade for JB.
Everything is available at a price, but it just seems the price from Toronto now would be too high. The time to buy Bautista was last year, when he had played like 200 games over two seasons.
But … if you work in the world of WAR, then two capable players that might give Toronto 4-8 cheap wins and one prospect with really good potential.
So, potential player is Noah or Matz. Depending on which one of those, pick one OF and one pitcher from: MdD, KN, Gee, Niese. There are some obvious can’t haves (like KN, Niese and Noah), but Matz, KN, possibly Gee.
(Notably, that’s what I’d give. Toronto still starts with JdG who is not a tradeable talent unless you are talking about Soler.)
Guys, Bautista is 34. We have to expect a downtrend. Plus, he is going to Citifield.
He put up 6.3 WAR last year. If he turns out to be only 60% of what he was last year, he’d be nearly as good as the best Met was this year (Lagares, 3.8).
FWIW, Fangraphs has him at 5.3 WAR next year. You are buying high, Tex, not low on Bautista and you have to remember that contract is cheap and just short enough to make it good.
JG, I cannot disagree. I guess I don’t like the “giving” when I am getting, LOL!
The Mets are paying Granderson 45 million for the next three years In comparison to 28 million? for 2 years? Make the trade in a NY minute.
Why? He doesn’t look like a Melky-Giambi. The trade if it happened kinda reminds me of when the Mets traded for Hernandez. The veteran player who leads by example and can help bolster this line up.He just turned 34 in October. Beside with Lagares in center he only needs to worry about in front and behind him. So whatever players you give up apply that towards Bautista and his very affordable contract.
JG- thanks for injecting a little reality into the discussion. For Toronto to move Bautista, they’d need a boat-load of top-end young controllable talent, May I add, similarly- the Dodgers aren’t handing over Kemp for Gee & Mejia, In any event, the Mets aren’t paying his freight- around 20mil. As for Ethier, per one of the other suggestions posted: The Dodgers might jump at any offer that rids them of the next 3 years of a diminished player who’s got them on the hook for $56 mil.