The MLB Project is over and the members of the faux general managers of all 30 teams are inputting their opinions on the moves they made and the teams they created.
As GM of the Athletics, I was extremely active. One of the more active GM’s in the project. This was taking a cue from Billy Beane, who is one of the more active GM’s in the major leagues due to the constant overhanging issue of payroll. We Mets fans complain about payroll, but when you look at the Athletics and what Beane has to manage, we really don’t know how bad it can be.
This payroll concept leads me to the purpose of this final analysis: would Beane have made these moves and is the team better?
To start, some adjustments need to be made to the final roster. In our project, we had a set payroll and a set way to calculate arbitration raises. This was necessary for the purpose of controlling the project and providing some realism to its various outcomes. It also provided all of us with the concept of a payroll and how that number affects a GM’s moves. In the end though, the payroll’s did cause some exchanges of cash to occur that probably wouldn’t have in the real world. Without a hard cap, money in transactions normally becomes less important. A few trades that were made in our truncated offseason definitely would have had monetary involvement. The trade that the Rockies and Twins pulled off involving Joe Mauer is a perfect example of this due to his gigantic contract. But most major league baseball trades don’t involve money, especially if the contracts are close. In the shortened Athletics offseason, 12 million dollars were included in transactions to other teams. In analyzing these deals, none of that money would have been sent in the real baseball world.
So the first change that will be made is the removal of those dollars from the cap. Those trades stand on their own without the dollar figures. This brings the Athletics payroll into the 70 million area, which is probably a more realistic number based upon their history. Since this is the Athletics, those dollars will not be reinvested into players. Such is the constant paradox that Beane has to work within.
Next, some of the NRI signings (non-roster invites), will not occur. The Athletics signed Kendrys Morales, Brandon Morrow and John Axford after free agency ended. In reality, there is no way the Athletics, with the moves that were made, would be able to afford Morales. He will get a more lucrative contract than what the Athletics could offer and wouldn’t accept a non-roster invite. Axford and Morrow might, so those transactions could have occurred, but based upon how the roster is set up, those players would, at best, have been minor league contracts. Axford was recently designated for assignment by the Pirates. If he elects free agency, he will find a major league contract somewhere. There’s a chance that Morrow could be brought in on this deal, but his upside probably would have found him a minimum level major league contract elsewhere.
So, these players won’t be included in the Athletics 25 man roster calculation as, in reality, it’s hard to imagine that the Athletics would have fit them into the budget with the moves they made. One move that will be made is the Athletics picking up Matt Reynolds from the Diamondbacks. Reynolds has a 600,000 option with the Diamondbacks that in our offseason wasn’t picked up. Reynolds hasn’t pitched since having Tommy John surgery in 2013, but he’s a quality left handed reliever who has minor league options left. For that 600,000 price tag, that’s hard to beat. Pedro Strop will also get a nominal raise to 2 Million as a result of looking at his arbitration price tag and realizing that he never would have signed for nearly a million dollars lower than he could have gotten in arbitration.
On top of all of this, the Athletics would definitely have had some other minor veteran signings and invites as the offseason went on. Minor league catcher Bryan Anderson had no options left and probably would be designated for assignment or released entirely before the season started. The Athletics top catching prospect, Bruce Maxwell, just made it to Double-A last year and doesn’t need to be protected yet on the 40 man roster, so the Athletics probably would fill that spot with a prospect they need to protect or who could be useful on the major league team, as well as signing some veteran they can stash at Triple-A on a minor league deal (like the Mets did with Taylor Teagarden last year). There are also probably players the Athletics fell like they need to protect from the Rule 5 draft, but that’s very difficult to predict this year as all of the Athletics obvious top prospects are not in need of protecting yet as they haven’t been in professional baseball for four years. The Rule 5 draft itself will be left alone, although Beane might actually use it this year due to the turnover of his roster.
Arbitration figures will also be adjusted. MLB Trade Rumors has come out with the official figures for the Athletics, so those will be used. The Nationals arbitration figures haven’t come out yet, so Doug Fister’s numbers will be estimated.
With all of that in mind, here is the final roster:
Position Players:
Coco Crisp OF 11 Million
Josh Donaldson 3B 4.5 Million
Nate McLouth OF 5 Million
Brad Miller SS/2B 530,000
Jesus Montero DH/C/1B 515,000
Tyler Moore 1B/LF/DH 520,000
Derek Norris C 550,000
Andy Parrino 2B/SS/3B 500,000
Nick Punto 2B/SS/3B 2.75 Million
Josh Reddick RF 3.7 Million
Eric Sogard 2B/SS 1 Million
B.J. Upton CF 15.05 Million
Stephen Vogt 1B/C/DH 525,000
Pitchers:
Fernando Abad RP/LH 900,000
Jesse Chavez SP/RP/RH 2.5 Million
Ryan Cook RP/RH 1.3 Million
Sean Doolittle RP/LH 780,000
Doug Fister SP/RH 8.5 Million
Sonny Gray SP/RH 650,000
Josh Lindblom RP/SP/RH 501,000
Eric O’Flaherty RP/LH 5.5 Million
Evan Scribner RP/RH 510,000
Pedro Strop RP/RH 2 Million
Josh Tomlin SP/RP/RH 1.5 Million
Alex Wood SP 650,000
Players on Disabled List to start the season:
A.J. Griffin SP/RH 510,000
Jarrod Parker SP/RH 900,000
Minor Leaguers to start the season that will definitively be in the Major Leagues in 2015:
Francisco Lindor (SS), Matt Reynolds (RP/LH), Joey Terdoslavich (OF/1B) and Joe Wieland (SP/RP/RH).
According to this roster, the Athletics opening day payroll will be about 71.4 million, a realistic number for the major league club.
So, the roster appears to be realistic, but is it better?
Well let’s look at it. To start, we still have some key hold overs on the team in Donaldson, Reddick, Norris and Crisp. Third base and catcher haven’t changed all that much. Arguably you could say the catching position is more productive offensively with Montero on the roster, but that depends entirely on whether Montero can get anywhere near his predicted potential when he was a Yankees prospect. Right Field may also be better if Reddick can stay healthy and play every day without a platoon partner. Crisp will probably slide to left field with Upton in center, which should improve the outfield defense, especially with McLouth as a back-up and spot starter that will give Crisp some days off. Donaldson is one of the best third baseman in baseball. So, it appears that, at least defensively, the outfield is better, that third base is status quo and that catcher has a chance to be offensively more productive.
The middle infield, after the moves that were made, is definitively better. Miller had a down year last year, but still had a WAR that was nearly double that of previous Oakland starter Jed Lowrie, in fewer plate appearances. That was Miller’s second season in the big leagues and hopefully was just a sophomore slump. Although the combination of Sogard, Parrino and Punto isn’t exactly enthralling at second base, it will be a strong combination defensively and they won’t have to man the position for that long. Lindor will be in the major leagues this season and that would necessitate that Miller move to second base. Lindor is known as an elite defender who should have a productive bat at the position. When the Athletics can finagle a Super 2 season out of Lindor, he will be promoted and Miller will be moved to second base with Sogard and Punto as bench players (Parrino will be DFA’d as he has no minor league options left). A middle infield of Miller at second and Lindor at shortstop, even if Lindor struggles, will be a huge upgrade defensively and also offensively over what the club had last year.
The designated hitter position should also be more productive as it was often manned by Alberto Callaspo, who had an under 600 OPS last season. A mixed bag of Moore, Montero, McLouth and Vogt will definitely be more productive than that. Also remember that Nate Freiman and his huge power has an option year left, so he’ll be sitting in Triple-A ready to be called up if Montero and/or Moore is a bust.
The pitching staff also should be similarly productive. One could argue this because there will be no Jon Lester or Jeff Samardzija this year, but Wood and Fister are quality replacements at far cheaper salaries. Wood is pre-arbitration and could be a second ace alongside Gray for years to come. Let’s be truthful about Fister. He’s an up to the trade deadline player and will be dealt by the team at the deadline. He is pitching for a big contract next year, so however many starts they get from him will hopefully be the best he can offer.
Trading Fister isn’t just about dollars, cents and prospects either. With Parker and Griffin back this season, they can afford to move Fister, which also frees up salary to discuss a long term contract with Gray and or Wood to buy out their arbitration years, if they so desire, or to open up money to add a free agent in the offseason to accompany the various young players they now have on their roster and will be a part of the roster by, hopefully, 2016.
The back end of the rotation in Tomlin and Chavez should replace Jason Hammell, Tommy Milone and Dan Straily fairly easily. Chavez had a break out year last year, but he might be best relegated to 15 to 20 starts per year and long relief duties than a 30 plus start repertoire. Tomlin had a bad ERA last year, but had solid peripherals that make him an intriguing number five starter. Again, Tomlin might not have to man that fort all year, with Parker and Griffin returning, and could be an asset in the bullpen. He also has a minor league option left, so the Athletics could store him there while they figure out who’s in the rotation. Wieland used to be a top ten prospect in the Padres system and is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery. With minor league options available, Wieland should be a nice back up option at Triple-A, along with solid, long time prospect Arnold Leon.
The bullpen, with Strop replacing Luke Gregerson and Scribner replacing Dan Otero, should be ok. Scribner has a chance to make a spot for him permanently on the big league roster, but since he’s out of options and top relief prospect Tucker Healy could be knocking on the door at Triple-A and will need to be protected at the end of 2015, this will be his one shot. The same with Lindblom, who has no options, but will have the opportunity to show that he can produce like he did with the Dodgers at the beginning of his career. With their major league career’s at a turning point, especially since they are most likely the first ones out when Griffin and Parker return, the Athletics should get their best. Strop provides a big time strike out pitcher and a potential closer if Doolittle falters. O’Flaherty will be traded during the season to a contender, but Reynolds should replace him nicely.
In the end, all the evidence points to the this pitching staff having the ability to easily replicate the numbers that made them one of the top pitching staff’s in the American League.
The anecdotal evidence seems to suggest that the team will be at least as good as it was last year. Whether that’s true, or whether they could actually be better in the configuration that resulted from the MLB project, is really on the shoulders of Upton and whoever man’s first base.
Let’s tackle that situation first. Moss was dealt because he was becoming increasingly expensive and could bring back a return with an extra arbitration year at his back. Miller and Montero was not only a solid return, but could be a trade that moves really strongly in the Athletics favor if both players produce to even a modicum of their potential. The question with first base is how much bang will the Athletics get for their buck. Moss is estimated to make about 7.1 million in arbitration this coming season. The combination of Vogt, Moore and possibly Montero will make a little over 1.5 million and all three players are pre-arbitration, meaning that the Athletics have long term control over them if their successful and an easy means to cut bait if they aren’t.
Vogt is a solid contributor, but probably should be limited in his plate appearances because you don’t get to be a 30 year old pre-arbitration player for nothing. If he gets around 300 plate appearances again this year, he should be as productive as last year. We also have to remember with Vogt that, the way the roster is set up, he would be the primary back up to Norris, meaning that some of those plate appearances will be at catcher. Montero is still learning first base and will more than likely be the team’s primary designated hitter if he produces like he can (he’s only turning 25, so there’s still hope). So it really comes down to Moore.
Moore could be this team’s next Moss. Moore is coming to the Athletics in his age 28 season, the same age as Moss did. It’s also, coincidentally, the age of the Mets own Lucas Duda, who, like Moss, had his breakout year at that age. Moore is a lot like those two players as he’s big and strong, strike’s out a lot, but also hits with big power. Moore has also shown a nice development in his minor league career in terms of drawing more walks, another Beane positive. Will Moore have a breakout year like Moss? Who knows as this is all speculation and in the real world, Moore is still a National. But the evidence suggests that it could happen. If it does, the Athletics would be able to replace Moss’ production at first base.
So, in the end, it comes down to Upton. This team could be better than last year’s club if Upton returns to his pre-Braves form. He produced a 750 plus OPS in his last two seasons with the Rays and an average WAR of 2.9. Cespedes posted, in essence, the same numbers over his last two seasons. The upgrade would come in the fact that if Upton produces at the level he can produce, he is a clear upgrade over what the Athletics had in place of Cespedes over the last 60 games of the season. If he produces like he did with the Braves, then he’s a bust and a contract albatross. The risk was worth it though, for the potential, for Wood and for the chance to have an affordable, long term replacement for Crisp or Reddick in Terdoslavich.
In the end, I feel good about this roster. It seems to fall in line with the Oakland mantra of continuing to replace more expensive players with affordable, under control replacements. Lindor and Wood could be plus players for the long term in the Athletics future and help the club bridge the gap to several high level prospects that could be here in 2016. Fister and O’Flaherty could bring nice returns on the trade market, while also freeing up cash for next year, along with Punto and McLouth. Those four players amount to over 20 million dollars in commitments this season and all are replaceable by pre-arbitration or arbitration eligible players already on the roster. That money will help support arbitration raises to various players, especially Donaldson, in upcoming years, support potential contract extensions for Gray and Wood through their arbitration years and potentially add a temporary bat in the outfield or at first base in case the current configuration falters.
In the end, the offseason I outlined should keep the Athletics competitive this year, but also set them up well for the future. That’s the Beane way and I think I followed his tracks fairly well.