Last August, the Mets began to play Matt den Dekker and Wilmer Flores on a regular basis. den Dekker had the larger part of a platoon in left while Flores essentially played every day, seeing time at shortstop and second base. The duo was more productive than anyone else the club trotted out during the 2014 campaign at the trouble spots of LF and SS. Here were their numbers once they started getting consistent playing time:
MDD – .290/.392/.374 for a .766 OPS in 125 PA
WF – .258/.295/.411 for a .706 OPS in 174 PA
A .392 OBP like den Dekker’s would be the sixth-best mark in the majors while Flores’ .153 ISO would be the fourth-best mark among full-time shortstops. In other words, both players put up impressive numbers in their extended tryouts, even if you could go, “yeah but…” and tear apart both guys if you so desired.
Following the early offseason news, it appears the Mets are willing to live with Flores at shortstop but consider getting a corner outfielder the top priority. Part of this is because it’s generally easier to find a big bat to play the outfield than it is to find one to play shortstop. But it seems to me that a larger part is the belief that what Flores produced is more valuable or perhaps more repeatable than what den Dekker did.
The latter belief is true as den Dekker posted a .360 BABIP in his extended tryout while Flores had just a .253 mark in the category. But for a second, let’s ignore the BABIP aspect – don’t worry, we’ll come back to it – and examine the actual production of what they delivered between the white lines.
We’ll look at WPA, which stands for Win Probability Added. Up front, let it be known that WPA is descriptive and not predictive. WPA tells you what happened, not what’s likely to happen in the future. A player can have a great (or terrible) WPA one season and turn around and deliver the exact opposite the following season. Here’s part of the definition from FanGraphs:
“While wOBA rates all home runs as equal, we know intuitively that a home run in the third inning of a blowout is less important to that win than a home run in the bottom of the ninth inning of a close game. Win Probability Added (WPA) captures this difference by measuring how individual players affect their team’s win expectancy on a per-play basis.
For example, say the Rays have a 45% chance of winning before Ben Zobrist comes to the plate. During his at-bat, Zobrist hits a home run, pushing the Rays’ win expectancy jumps to 75%. That difference in win expectancy (in decimal form, +.30) from the beginning of the play to the end is Ben Zobrist’s WPA for that play. If Zobrist strikes out during his next at bat and lowers his team’s win expectancy by 5%, his overall WPA for the game so far would be +.30 – .05 = +.25, as WPA is a counting statistic and is additive.”
In judging the value of what two players delivered in a certain past time period, WPA is the perfect stat to use. We’re looking for a statistic to describe what happened in the past, not one to project what will happen in the future.
From August 10th to the end of the season, den Dekker delivered a 1.36 WPA while Flores recorded a 0.19 WPA from August 7th forward. Most advanced stats are denoted in terms of runs. But as you probably already figured out, WPA is recorded in wins. So, despite having 49 fewer plate appearances in this counting statistic, den dekker’s production was over a full win better.
In other words den Dekker’s actual offensive output in contributing to wins was better and it wasn’t close.
A baseball season is six months long. These numbers were over a two-month span, so if we were to extrapolate these to a full season, den Dekker would have a 4.08 WPA if he maintained this level of production for an entire year. Curtis Granderson led the Mets with a 2.49 WPA last year and Lucas Duda was right on his heels with a 2.46 mark.
Now, it’s obvious that a bigger number here is preferable. What’s not so obvious is what makes for a good WPA number. If you clicked on the link to the WPA definition above, you would see a chart putting season long WPA numbers in context. A 1.0 WPA is considered average with a 3.0 WPA being considered great.
What den Dekker did when given a chance late last year was extremely valuable. And this doesn’t even take into account that he was batting in a sub-optimal spot in the order for most of this stretch. In the six games he started and hit first, den Dekker notched a 0.51 WPA. In his last 15 games as a leadoff hitter, Juan Lagares had a 0.26 WPA.
Okay, perhaps you are convinced that what den Dekker produced last year was great. But you’re still not sold on him because you know that WPA is not predictive and you’re alarmed by his .360 BABIP. That’s certainly a valid position to take.
A .360 BABIP is definitely elevated and you should not predict a .360 BABIP for anyone. But one thing to keep in mind is that den Dekker fits the profile of a player who should have a high BABIP. He hits a lot of line drives, runs fast and gets more than his share of infield hits. Using an xBABIP calculator on FanGraphs, we see that den Dekker’s batted ball profile indicates a BABIP of .348, which means his extended tryout number was elevated but not ridiculously so when we consider how he hits the ball.
The same calculator produces a .309 xBABIP for Flores.
Obviously we are dealing with small samples, and in that sample one player exceeded expectations (as calculated by xBABIP) and the other underperformed. The offensive difference between them is not as great as the numbers would indicate. Having said that, let’s examine the difference:
| den Dekker | Flores | |
|---|---|---|
| OPS | .766 | .706 |
| wOBA | .349 | .314 |
| wRAA | 3.7 | 0.5 |
| wRC+ | 127 | 103 |
| WPA | 1.36 | 0.19 |
The wOBA number for den Dekker is considered above average while the mark for Flores is below average. The wRC+ number is a hair beneath what is considered great for den Dekker and average for Flores. And we know OPS overvalues slugging, the component that Flores holds a decided advantage, and undervalues on-base percentage.
The Book estimates you should multiply OBP * 1.7 and then add to slugging for a truer value. Phil Birnbaum has done research that suggests it’s even higher than that. Using the 1.7 factor, we get den Dekker holding a 127-point edge.
Just look at the wording used to describe den Dekker’s play during his extended tryout. It ranges from above average to great. And this isn’t me picking words out of the air but rather rules of thumb benchmarks that den Dekker reached once he reworked his swing and was given a chance to play regularly.
The doubters will answer everything with the cry of small sample. And they’re right. But it’s curious how the small sample argument is applied differently to Flores and den Dekker. Somehow, despite a history of performing better in his second crack at a level, when den Dekker does just that in the majors, it’s dismissed as a small sample. But Flores looks okay defensively in a small sample and that’s enough to grant him a starting job at the most important defensive position in fair territory.
UZR really liked what it saw defensively from Flores at shortstop last year. DRS saw him as below average. The two systems had a significant difference in what they thought of his range. This is not so unusual. Generally, you need more innings for defensive numbers to stabilize and Flores only played about one-third of a season at shortstop.
There’s a reasonable chance that Flores is an average defensive shortstop. However, if asked to wager, my money would be on den Dekker repeating his .360 BABIP over a full season than Flores duplicating his 12.5 UZR/150 at shortstop over an entire year.
We know Sandy Alderson tried to acquire a shortstop last year and found the price, either in dollars or trade assets, too high. Perhaps this experience is influencing the decision to make acquiring a corner outfield a bigger priority than getting a shortstop. And that’s certainly something to consider.
If the rationale for making an outfield acquisition the top offseason priority is the cost/scarcity factor, then that’s a legitimate reason. But saying that Flores’ small samples are acceptable and den Dekker’s are not is not a valid position. When you take their entire professional career into account, there’s more reason to think den Dekker can be an asset offensively than to think that Flores can be one defensively at shortstop.
And while Flores’ numbers took off offensively once he received regular playing time, they were inferior to the ones den Dekker put up when he got his chance. It’s nothing special for an OF to be better offensively than a SS. Yet people are thinking that what Flores produced was better and it simply was not.
For me, the bottom line is if that Flores can produce a .700 OPS, he’s likely an asset at short unless his defense is horrible. And if den Dekker can produce an OBP of .370 or above, he would be right up there with the best leadoff hitters in team history, along with the sublime first half of 2011 by Jose Reyes and Rickey Henderson‘s magical 1999 season.
Not only is it a small sample size, it’s also not a representative sample of a full season.
Regular season = 5 months of non-September plus 1 month of September
Extrapolating Flores/Mdd’s regular playing time stats = 3 months of non-September plus 3 months of September.
If i weight it 5/1 instead of 1/1, i get:
Mdd:
.258/.363/.326 690 OPS
.318 wOBA, .48 wRAA, 106 wRC+
Flores:
.250/.288/.344 632 OPS
.279 wOBA, -.17 wRAA, 79 wRC+
While neither is someone you’d like to hand the job full time, i’d much rather choose Mdd to start if we had to choose 1.
I would really like to see den Dekker get a full year. What a great Defensive outlfield and I believe the numbers will get better!
Im fine with both in the starting line up as long as Wright and Grandy bounce back.
Lagares
Murphy
Wright
Duda
Darnaud
Flores
Grandy
Den decker
Flop juan and mdd depending on pitcher
The Mets need to add a bat with some punch behind it. MDD delivered as a lead off hitter and if Lagares wasn’t on the team, then MDD should start. The problem is that with MDD in left and Lagares in center, offensively the team hasn’t addressed the need of additional power and run production in the lineup. It’s nice to have a terrific lead off hitter, but you still need people to knock him in.
the run production is offset by a full year of Flores, a full year of the good d’arnaud, and a full year of Duda. KC and St Louis hit less home runs than we did and SF only had 7 more than us. What we need is someone to drive in a run from third with less than two outs. Whether that comes from a home run or just putting the ball in play doesn’t matter. I think the above lineup is capable of producing enough runs to compete as long as the pitching performs as expected. I would add to that a strong bench of Campbell, Reynolds, Kirk, Recker, and whoever the 25th man is (lots of flexibility on the bench in terms of positions, lefty/righty balance – the only thing missing is that speed guy, which is why I like EY on this team). We’re going to need to win a lot of 1 and 2-run ballgames this season.
You like EY as a bench piece, not a starter, right?
Eric is wright on! If Wright bounces back the Mets may have four 20 homer players (Duda, Grandy, Wright & D’arnaud). If we get 10 more from Murph and Flores, power wont be the issue! We’ll need defense to make up for the middle infield. den Dekker, Lagares & Grandy will balance the weak middle infield!
I agree Name “neither is someone you’d like to hand the job full time,”.
I agree Scott that “with MDD in left and Lagares in center, offensively the team
hasn’t addressed the need of additional power and run production in the lineup.”
If Murphy is traded, I can see Flores as the starting second baseman but eventually Herrera will beat him out. I can eventually see MDD as the 4th outfielder but he has to beat out “the no options left” Kirk to do that. In your own words, Brian, “it remains a good rule of thumb to remove 19% from a player’s Las Vegas OBP and to remove 34% from their SLG mark to approximate what they would do in the same season in the majors.” MDD translates to a 686 OPS.
If the Mets want to improve their chances of making the playoffs they need to upgrade at SS and LF from outside of the organization. Flores and MDD would make nice bench pieces on a playoff team.
But MDD is such a different hitter than he was at the beginning of the year that my position is what happened previously can’t be used like normal to predict future performance. When did he change his approach? I don’t know but it happened sometime after his return to Triple-A. His slash line in his second stint in Vegas was .402/.487/.665 in 192 PA. If we apply the translation to those numbers, we get:
.394 OBP
.439 SLG
So the smallest sample size? 🙂
I actually think you are on to something Brian, so much so that I believe there are other GM’s that will want MDD as a throw in on the hopeful ” big deal ” that Sandy pulls off this winter. You have convinced me he has more potential than Kirk.
I’m enthused by both players…the stats certainlly describe heavily positive results for denDecker. That makes sense…he was on a very hot streak.
At a 392 OPS, frankly, Matt denDecker would be the Centerfielder—end of discussion! ….well….probably.
I watched a good deal of the last month of games, and there were many, many “not yet major leaguers” on the field—especially pitching. I like denDecker on the roster—he will get a chance to display at some point. I believe it would be irresponsible to merely hand him ab’s, much less a Starter Role.
As for WF, he may be almost adequate at the SS position…I’d argue against the idea that there’s a resonable chance that WF is an average Defensive SS. At a .750 and up OPS, he may be “survivable”, with a caddy on hand.. Playing next to Dan Murphy, with Duda at 1st and d’Arnaud at C, it’s a team full of “no defensive plays”….if not Bad Defensive play.
Here are some of the pitchers MDD faced in September:
Tom Koehler
Alfredo Simon
Johnny Cueto
Jared Cosart
Nate Eovaldi
Henderson Alvarez
Julio Teheran
Ervin Santana
Tanner Roark
Brad Peacock
MDD made 16 starts in September and 10 of them were against pitchers who spent most of the year in the majors as SP. He went 8-24 with 3 BB against these 10 SP, so it’s not like he only performed well against the “not yet major leaguers.” That’s a .333 AVG and a .407 OBP
His september stats—57 pa/49 ab’s…..Yes, nice results. I can’t make a buy in on a guy with a .634 lifetime ops because of a 3 week hot streak. … and I like the guy!!!
My “surprise” is that he’s just 26/27…i thought he was a year or so older.
I wouldn’t want them to hand him a starting role….and I wouldn’t be amazed if he becomes a pretty good player, even a full time player.
Look at his Minor League numbers first. Then look at the trend – he always improves when he repeats a level. I would be money on him outperforming Granderson over 600 PA.
wow. That’s an awful lot of pixels spent on promoting the second best, left handed outfielder on the Mets.
LOL, we have nothing else to talk about yet.
yah, and a long time to talk about nothing. But who knows better than us Mets fans? LOL
Fact is, MdD didn’t play LF particularly well last year – his range was particularly questionable. He was a 26 year, in the midst of his third exposure to AAA (sort of making any comparison to a 22 year old pretty irrelevant).
And to extrapolate a .394 OBP and a .436 SLG from dD’s short stint …
does that mean TdA is nearly as good as Barry Bonds? Hey, whatever it takes to keep supporting a sacred cow.
You mean the best left handed outfielder on the Mets… I’d bet money on him outperforming Grandy in 2015 if given 500+ PA
I think the Mets are going to sign Cuddyer and non tender EY. if that happens, they can hold onto Kirk and MDD. Cuddy will not play everyday in the outfield, so there will be AB’S for MDD, while Kirk is the top lefty bat off the bench.
Also you can’t forget that Puello is out of options and MDD isn’t. That could play a role also.
So they should just use Puello instead of Cuddyer. He had a ~1.340 OPS against lefties in AA and a ~.940 OPS against LHP in AAA. By all accounts, he is a strong defender and has the best OF arm in the system.
Puello…does he need to be on the 25 or do they retain him by keeping him on the 40?
Puello is out of options so if they send him to the minors they have to expose him to every other team. If any team claims him, he’s theirs. If no one claims him – he goes to Las Vegas (or wherever they send him to.)
Makes it kind of curious that they didn’t “push” him more last year…. at what point would they need to place him on 25 man roster?
Once the season starts. And anytime they remove him they need to expose him.
Puello made it impossible to push him. In late July he had a .675 OPS in Las Vegas. He’s lucky he didn’t get demoted.
He was hurt. He also crushed the ball at the end of the season. He should be given a shot in ST to make the team.