It’s no secret that the Mets spent a good chunk of last offseason looking to acquire a shortstop and it appears they are traveling the same path this winter. Peter Gammons reported that the Mariners turned down an offer of Jon Niese for Brad Miller prior to the start of the 2014 season. Perhaps Seattle would like a mulligan on that one, as Miller failed to take a hold of the job and has potentially been replaced in the pecking order by Chris Taylor.
A Mariners blog thinks the two clubs still match up and thinks that Miller should wind up on the Mets. However, instead of a one-for-one swap, they propose that the clubs expand to a four-player deal. Their proposal has the Mets shipping Lucas Duda and Dillon Gee to the Mariners for Miller and top prospect Taijuan Walker.
My guess is that most of you reading this will dismiss the idea out of hand. Let’s just say that this trade has no chance of happening but instead of criticizing it, let’s use it as a jumping off point to discuss the various trade values of the people involved.
Let’s start with the giant question: Is there any way that trading Duda makes sense? If the Mets were to put him on the market, you’d have to think he would be a desirable commodity, being a legitimate 30-HR threat under team control. And if they did trade him, they could slide newly-acquired Michael Cuddyer over to first base. Cuddyer is a defensive liability in the outfield and perhaps a move to first, along with improving things defensively, might help keep him in the lineup.
However, if they do that, the team would either need to get an elite SS or another power-hitting OF in trade. Miller is interesting but nobody is going to come within a mile of calling him elite. Walker would be a desirable trade piece for many clubs but the Mets don’t need to give up one of their few offensive stars to add yet another minor league pitcher, regardless of how highly-regarded he is.
Only two shortstops last year exceeded a 4.1 fWAR – Jhonny Peralta and Troy Tulowitzki. Peralta just signed a multi-year deal with the Cardinals last offseason and is unlikely to be moved. Tulowitzki we’ve discussed at length. Regardless of what you think of his ability to stay elite, the Rockies would have little interest in Duda, as they have Justin Morneau under contract to play first base in 2015 and they hold a team option for him the following season.
Likely the only scenario that makes sense is flipping Duda to a team that has a big bat in the outfield to trade. A quick glance of rosters shows that there should be at least half a dozen clubs besides Seattle interested in acquiring Duda. An example of a potential trade partner would be the Royals.
Submitting without endorsing, who would say no in a swap of Duda for Alex Gordon? On first look it would seem the Royals wouldn’t do this. However, they are allegedly looking to trim payroll and Gordon is making $12.5 million and is eligible to file for free agency (has a player option) following the 2015 season.
Meanwhile, Duda won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2017 season. His expected arb salary this year according to MLB Trade Rumors is $4.3 million. So, the Royals would save over $8 million this year and retain control over the player for two additional years. Duda’s 30-HR potential, along with his low salary and three years of team control make him a desirable commodity, for many teams.
Few doubt that the Mets would like to move Gee. In a type of baseball paradox, Gee seems to be the type of pitcher that does not have a lot of trade value, yet one that would make a fair bit of money if he was available as a free agent. Gee’s expected arb award is $5.1 million and he’s under team control through the 2016 season. If Gee was a free agent today, he’d likely get a multi-year deal with an average annual value above that expected arbitration value. Yet, who’s trading a lot to get him?
The Mariners’ blogger is probably correct in that Gee has more value in a package deal than in a straight one-for-one swap.
And what is Miller’s value these days? Last year he was held in such high regard by Seattle that it wouldn’t trade him for a young lefty starter with a team-friendly contract. Yet one would have to believe his value took a tumble after he put up a .653 OPS after putting up a .737 mark in his rookie season.
He’d still be a nice acquisition for the Mets. After getting off to a brutal start at the plate, Miller rebounded to post a .770 OPS over his final 248 PA. And that strong batting line was achieved with a .319 BABIP, slightly elevated perhaps but nothing about which to be alarmed.
The jury is still out on his defensive performance. He has a good reputation and UZR likes his range. But he does make some errors and DRS sees him as below average in the field overall.
It seems Miller is more valuable than Gee but not as valuable as Duda. Alderson’s original offer of Niese still feels too much for me but given my Mets bias, it’s probably a good offer. A year later, will Seattle view things differently? The Mariners are allegedly interested in free agent Hanley Ramirez and with Kyle Seager already at 3B, they likely want him at shortstop, with DH a distant possibility.
The trade market always offers plenty of intriguing possibilities but most GMs are so risk averse in this area that we never see as many deals as we probably should. In some form or another, the Mets and Mariners are potential trade partners with Miller being an attractive target. But will Alderson and his counterpart Jack Zduriencik be able to find common ground this time around? That’s just one of many storylines to follow this offseason for the Mets.
I was thinking more along the lines of Toronto. Duda can DH as an alternate plan while Encarnacion plays an occasional first base. Need to include in the package Murphy and Montero (and maybe Mejia) for Bautista. Herrera starts the season at second base and should be a significant upgrade defensively there. Cuddyer will be less of a defensive liability at first. Then the Mets can focus upgrading SS.
At first i was thrilled at the trade value of Duda. Walker? The guy that the Mariner’s were reluctant to trade for Price. But then i clicked on the link to the blog, and I think that the blogger significantly overvalues talent. Reports are that the Royals are looking to re-up with Butler at somewhere around 2/12, and the blogger wants to pay him 3/30! He also wants to sign Lowrie when they would have Taylor even if Miller were traded away… Even if there’s no chance that the M’s would ever do that trade, at least we know that at least some other fans value Duda pretty highly.
I really like the Gordon-Duda swap. Royals get the big power bat in their middle of the lineup for the next few years while saving a bunch of money. Mets lose a bit offensively, but significantly improve defense as Gordon is a (deserving) Gold Glover and Cuddyer shifts to first.. And we’ll get a draft pick in 2016 if Gordon doesn’t resign. Makes tons of sense for both sides, biggest obstacle would be the sentimental factor of keeping homegrown talent. Side obstacle would be the Royals couldn’t keep Butler, who also has that homegrown sentimental factor.
As much as Wheeler frustrates you, I can’t imagine you being thrilled with the current version of Walker.
Yea. The one game he pitched against the Mets was Ugly and he clearly has the same control issues as Wheeler. But it’s worth noting that he’s doing at age 21, a full 2 years younger than Wheeler who made his debut at 23. At 21, Wheeler was still in A+.
Compare the MLB career stats of Zach Wheeler and Taijuan Walker (who is over two years younger than Wheeler):
ZW 49 G, 49 GS, 285.1 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 100 ERA+
TW 11 G, 8 GS, 53.0 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 128 ERA+
Wheeler was Baseball America’s 11th-ranked prospect in 2013 while Walker was BA’s 11th-ranked prospect in 2014. Wheeler remains under team control for five seasonswhile Walker remains under team control for six seasons.
Wheeler is a fine young pitcher, but I am confident Seattle — and much of baseball — values Walker over Wheeler.
Thanks for reading and commenting.
Sometimes when you come to a site with a bunch of people who have a history with each other, you don’t get the inside jokes and code words. We have a Game Chatter where Name and I have spent many a night ripping and kvetching about various things and the control of Mr. Wheeler is one of them.
No one doubts the quality of Mr. Walker as a prospect. However, with the depth of high quality prospects who’ve already appeared in the majors and who are currently in the minors, the last thing we need to do is consider paying the freight for someone like Walker.
While I like trading more than any other aspect about baseball, it’s easier to trade during the winter than any other time. So, this is the time to do something because while the Mets want to see Flores, they don’t believe that he can handle the position.
While Tulowitzski sounds great, I would rather have Castro or Profar more than Tulo. While I love Tulo, two things bother me:
1. We all know he will get hurt (who knows if that will be during a stretch run or even the playoffs) and the Mets don’t have a close replacement. While everyone is harping on Cuddyer’s signing, he was for two years and with MDD and Kirk, the Mets have a replacement that we deem may be close. The drop off from Tulo to Flores should be bigger.
2. More importantly, Tulo is trending down. He will start being less effective in about a year or two, while the other two guys will be trending up for several years.
Trading for Tulo is a win now move, and the Mets are building a foundation for the future, not just now. For me, the SS that I would be aggressive for is Profar, when he is healthy. Profar is good across the board and hopefully will stay healthy.
Castro has his negative press, but he has been improving in taking pitches and focusing more on defense than his younger years. He is going to be 25 and is getting better. In two years he would be better or equal to Tulo and then he would be trending up while Tulo trends down.
I have to believe that the Mets may be more comfortable to sign a Drew/Lowrie type at a low cost deal than to give up talent, but I would call up Jon Daniels and if Profar is healthy would say: “Profar for Colon and Wheeler, whatcha think?” Wheeler is talented, but he has his occasional hiccups and he has that inverted W that scares everyone. That leaves us with Harvey, deGrom, Niese, Gee, and Montero to start the year, Syndergaard and Verrett to back them up.
If Daniels says no, I would go back for Castro see if they will take Montero and Niese (fingers crossed), but to offer Wheeler for Castro I’m not in love with but would weigh it.
Sorry Tulo.
I’m a big Tulo backer but if we were somehow able to get Castro for the Cubs for a fair deal, I’d be excited about that, too.
I do somewhat like the Duda for Gordon trade. I love the fact that it gets Cuddyer out of the outfield and we bring in another Gold Glover. We still have options to spell Cuddyer at first and we’ve strengthened our defense for our pitching. Hopefully we’ll have the financial ability. Together Gordon and Cuddyer might not have 30 homers in Citi Field, but they should have 80 extra-base hits between them. I’d miss Duda’s elegant locutions though.
As quoted from said Mariners blog: “Duda can play both the outfield as well as first base and brings a bevy of power to the line-up.”
Ha! Duda can play outfield! Anyways, I guess this part of the season is for all of us to put our dreamer hats on and pretend to be GMs, knowing full well that there is zero chance any of it comes to reality!
At some point if you are heading in to believing “this” is the year, whole make overs like shipping Duda and moving Cuddy to 1B really add a lot of other moving parts to the system.
I really hope our GM wouldn’t reject a move (not saying this is the right one, just speaking in general terms) that would move a guy to a less demanding defensive position, that he’s played previously in the majors without incident, that made our team better.
Only if such folly involves attempting to correct things presently functioning at a passable level while abandoning the glaring holes that still require attention. Of course making the team better is the only job a GM has, but moving Cuddyer to 1b ain’t the answer.
Did you just describe the Cuddyer signing?
But Chris he didn’t say he didn’t say he could play them well! Besides wouldn’t DH be his “second” natural position?
IMO, Miller is an upgrade over Flores.Offensively, his 2014 is similar to Flores 2014 and his 2013 is what people are expecting Flores to do in 2015 except Flores has not done it yet. Defensively, I would be more comfortable with Miller than Flores. Miller is 25 and still has his prime coming up and I think he has the same or more potential factor as Flores. Niese for Miller, why not, although I would prefer Colon or Gee. This trade would not make a significant difference but it would be an improvement. I would investigate other options before I would make this trade because the better the upgrade at SS the better the chances of making the playoffs.
Duda for Gordon I would not do because Gordon is a rental. Duda for a player like Gordon that still has 2-3 years of affordable control I would do.
I understand your reluctance to trade Duda now.
However, the only reason Gordon might potentially be available is because he’s a rental. He’s amassed 22.3 fWAR in the last four years, including a 6.6 mark last year. That was tied for the third-best mark in the majors.
There are reasons to be wary of Gordon, specifically because he does accumulate a lot of value on defense and he’ll be 31 next year. But if he was under contract for 2-3 more years there’s no way we’d be talking about him.
So we can start with the broken idea of the Mets, of all teams, trading for pitching (and giving up our best slugger to do so) and expand from there.
Gordo for Duda? One year control for three? Help me stop laughing. Maybe we should move Wheeler, Synd and Harvey to get Tulo while you are at it.
The whole idea of trading Duda to maximize the value of a two year deal to a older guy that has health problems is absolutely one of the stupidest things I’ve seen here.
And insofar as Brad Miller is concerned? His “turnaround” amounted to two games (one of them against the indomitable Nick Martinez and the fearsome Ranger bullpen) where he went 7 for 7.
Well, it’s November and there’s nothing else to do but spin stupid ideas and get people to react.
I guess the author wanted to make sure you weren’t hibernating this fall JG. Sure got a reaction from you!
I’d move Duda for Gordon. I’m not sold on Lucas and we could always make an effort to extend Gordon’s contract.
Brian Joura asks: And what is Miller’s value these days?
Steamer600 projections, which assume each player will get 600 plate appearances in 2015, rank Brad Miller third among all shortstops in 2015 WAR:
http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&players=0&sort=25,d
Seattle shortstop Chris Taylor ranks sixth.
Lucas Duda ranks 35th among firstbasemen (just behind Seattle firstbaseman Logan Morrison):
http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&players=0&sort=25%2cd
… and 92nd among outfielders:
http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&players=0&sort=25%2cd
Jon Niese ranks 175th among pitchers (assuming 200 innings for starters and 65 innings for relievers):
http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=0&players=0&sort=18%2cd
… while 22-year-old Taijuan Walker, who remains under team control for six seasons, is ranked 132nd.
I doubt the Mets can land Brad Miller for Lucas Duda and Jon Niese, much less for a package that includes Taijuan Walker.
Since Steamer is a statistical model, I’m guessing you can throw out Steamer projections automatically for young players with limited MLB experience. And if Steamer can be believed, we don’t need a SS as Flores is projected to be the 13th best.
I took a look at the SS list and even though there were a lot of laughers, including Flores, this made me laugh the hardest.
Stephen Drew: 0.9 fWAR
Reese Havens: 0.9 fWAR
LOL
I believe it’s possible that Miller could finish the year with a 3.2 fWAR. I’ll take out a second mortgage on my house saying that neither that total nor Miller will be ranked third among shortstops at the end of the year. In 2014, nine SS topped a 3.2 fWAR.
The Mets are not trading their best power bat. Duda is going nowhere.
Duda for Gordon. I’m still laughing.
You do realize that the only person “alleging” that the Royals are looking to trim payroll is a New York sportswriter living in a dream world of hope that the Royals will trade Gordon to the Mets, don’t you? In Kansas City they are talking about raising payroll.
hey Chris! Who’s the New York sportswriter?