The most interesting players are the ones where smart people can disagree. Perhaps no player on the current Mets fits this bill better than Zack Wheeler. On one hand, you have people who wonder what the fuss is since he consistently wields high pitch counts and has shown almost no ability to complete seven innings. On the other hand, you have people who wish he went deeper into games but who appreciate his 6.2 IP, 1 ER outings and view him as a great asset to the staff.
Wheeler made 32 starts last year and only twice all season did he complete seven innings. Many times it seemed he was on the ropes the first three innings and only a well-timed defensive play or the good fortune of the pitcher coming to bat bailed him out of potentially disastrous innings. Some feel that while his overall numbers look okay, he was a fortunate break or two away from results which may have merited a ticket to the minors.
Others think that after a dreadful first nine games, Wheeler came on and gave the Mets consistently good outings. In his final 23 games, he had a 3.05 ERA and a 1.231 WHIP. With a normal .291 BABIP, he limited opposing batters to a .645 OPS. Additionally, he fanned 141 batters in 135.2 innings in this stretch.
We all agree that we want starters to go seven or more innings each and every time out. Wheeler’s inability to do this is a mark against him. The big question is how much of a hindrance is his need to be relieved in the seventh inning? If it were a crime, would it be closer to a felony or a misdemeanor?
Wheeler pitched 6.0 or 6.1 or 6.2 innings in 20 starts this past year. His record was 9-3 (.750) in those games. Thanks to the Baseball-Reference Play Index, we know that overall in the National League, there were 468 games where the starter pitched between 6.0 and 6.2 innings. League starters went 238-76 (.758) in those games.
But there’s more to it than just the starter’s record. How about the team? After all, one of the issues is that by not going deeper into games, Wheeler is asking the bullpen to deliver more innings. The Mets were 12-8 in those 20 games. Good, but significantly worse than Wheeler’s own record.
Meanwhile, the league as a whole went 313-155 (.669) when a starting pitcher went between 6.0 and 6.2 IP. So the Mets were one game worse than expected in these 20 outings of Wheeler’s. So, was this the fault of Wheeler, the relief pitching, the defense, the offense or maybe just bad luck? There’s no easy answer to that question.
But, that’s not really the question that we’re interested in, is it?
How much does Wheeler hurt the club by not completing seven innings? That’s a question that’s a little easier to answer. Here are the numbers for the National League in 2014 for various breakdowns. The chart below combines 6.1 and 6.2 IP outings to get a larger sample size.
| IP | ER | G | Record | WPct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | 0 | 64 | 47-17 | .734 |
| 6.0 | 1 | 129 | 92-37 | .713 |
| 6.0 | 2 | 139 | 75-64 | .540 |
| 6.1-6.2 | 0 | 34 | 28-6 | .824 |
| 6.1-6.2 | 1 | 46 | 35-11 | .761 |
| 6.1-6.2 | 2 | 56 | 36-20 | .643 |
| 7.0 | 0 | 123 | 104-19 | .846 |
| 7.0 | 1 | 163 | 108-55 | .663 |
| 7.0 | 2 | 118 | 64-54 | .542 |
To me this chart is fascinating. The pattern we see when the SP allows 0 ER is what we would expect to find. The numbers are good across the board and improve the longer the starter goes in the game. But that pattern does not hold when the SP gives up runs.
There’s an increase from 6.0 to 6.1-6.2 but then a decrease when we up the total to 7.0 IP. And there’s actually a drop in winning percentage from 6.0 IP, 1 ER (.713) to 7.0 IP, 1 ER (.663). And the two states are virtually equal when the starter allows 2 ER.
Of course, this is just a one-year sample. Let’s do another year and see if these patterns hold. Here’s the NL data for 2013:
| IP | ER | G | Record | WPct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | 0 | 66 | 51-15 | .773 |
| 6.0 | 1 | 114 | 73-41 | .640 |
| 6.0 | 2 | 130 | 64-66 | .492 |
| 6.1-6.2 | 0 | 26 | 22-4 | .846 |
| 6.1-6.2 | 1 | 41 | 30-11 | .732 |
| 6.1-6.2 | 2 | 63 | 37-26 | .587 |
| 7.0 | 0 | 109 | 92-17 | .844 |
| 7.0 | 1 | 149 | 104-45 | .698 |
| 7.0 | 2 | 137 | 73-64 | .533 |
In this year, when the SP allowed 0 ER, his winning percentage jumped when he pitched more innings but there was virtually no difference between 6.1-6.2 and 7.0 IP. Once again, when the SP allowed 1 ER, we saw an increase going from 6.0 to 6.1-6.2 but then a drop when we increase again to 7.0 IP. And this time, when the SP allowed 2 ER, the pattern followed when he allowed 1 ER.
Let’s do one more year and look at the same breakdowns for 2012. However, while the run environment in the NL was virtually the same between ’13 and ’14 (4.00 vs 3.95), there was about a quarter of a run more scored per team in ’12 (4.22).
| IP | ER | G | Record | WPct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | 0 | 62 | 53-9 | .855 |
| 6.0 | 1 | 111 | 83-28 | .748 |
| 6.0 | 2 | 143 | 70-73 | .490 |
| 6.1-6.2 | 0 | 28 | 22-6 | .786 |
| 6.1-6.2 | 1 | 41 | 35-6 | .854 |
| 6.1-6.2 | 2 | 58 | 37-21 | .638 |
| 7.0 | 0 | 100 | 89-11 | .890 |
| 7.0 | 1 | 166 | 114-52 | .687 |
| 7.0 | 2 | 118 | 68-50 | .576 |
This time we do not have the expected pattern with 0 ER allowed, as the team winning percentage went down when we increased to the 6.1-6.2 level. But the 7.0 IP level underperformed versus the 6.1-6.2 level in games with both 1 and 2 ER. It doesn’t make intuitive sense but it has been a consistent pattern.
Let’s do one last chart, combining the 2012-2014 NL numbers. We do this with the understanding that the run environment was different in ’12 but hopefully not a big enough difference to outweigh the benefit of the larger sample size among our various IP-ER states.
| IP | ER | G | Record | WPct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | 0 | 192 | 151-41 | .786 |
| 6.0 | 1 | 354 | 248-106 | .701 |
| 6.0 | 2 | 412 | 209-203 | .507 |
| 6.1-6.2 | 0 | 88 | 72-16 | .818 |
| 6.1-6.2 | 1 | 128 | 100-28 | .781 |
| 6.1-6.2 | 2 | 177 | 110-67 | .621 |
| 7.0 | 0 | 332 | 285-47 | .858 |
| 7.0 | 1 | 478 | 326-152 | .682 |
| 7.0 | 2 | 373 | 202-171 | .542 |
Unsurprisingly, the best result out of these nine states was for the starting pitcher to throw seven shutout innings, which resulted in a win for the team 86 percent of the time. Another thing we can say for sure is that it’s more important once a starter reaches 6 IP to limit runs than to maximize innings. Six innings pitched and no earned runs winds up with a team record over 100 points higher in winning percentage than seven innings and one earned run. Over a 162-game season, the difference in winning percentage in those two states is 17 games.
It also holds true that it’s preferable to post a 6 IP, 1 ER line than a 7 IP, 2 ER line. And in the fractional innings pitched the same principle holds.
Of course these are league totals and individual totals can and will be different. How desirable the extra inning or partial inning is will vary depending on the strength of the team, including the manager’s ability to run a good bullpen. One can certainly argue that the recent Mets with their questionable bullpens and bullpen deployment would benefit from the extra outs from their starting pitcher.
Looking at these numbers on a macro level, it makes sense to prioritize run prevention over inning maximization. But it also makes sense to pick and choose times to push your starter. A burnt out bullpen could be one of those times. Additionally, the success of the SP should be considered, as not all 6 IP, 1 ER outings are created equal. A game in which the pitcher gave up a solo homer to the leadoff batter and has been cruising since is a completely different thing than one in which in the sixth inning the starter loaded the bases and escaped with only one run because of a DP ball and a HR-saving catch by your Gold Glove outfielder.
My expectation is that the 2015 Mets bullpen will be better than the 2012-2014 versions and there’s optimism the offense will be better, too. If you agree with that subjective opinion and then combine it with the objective numbers presented above – then there’s little reason to gnash teeth if Wheeler’s final line has a “6” instead of a “7” in the IP column as long as the ER allowed are one or none.
It’s difficult enough when TC micromanages the pen. So it would be to Wheeler’s benefit to cut down on his walks and allow the defense to help. The best defensive team can’t help your starter if you average 4 walks per 6 innings. If he just utilized the defense behind him he could consistently get into the 7th inning or more (thus cutting down TC’s options which may not be a bad thing). He’s not Al Leiter either. So if he knows 100 pitches is going to be his average limit why not try to maximize and improve your efficiency and stop nibbling when he gets ahead of the count. That’s where the team misses having a veteran catcher behind the plate.
Wheeler, and the other starters, will be hurt by a middle infield with Flores and Murph. How many ground balls that should have been outs will scoot by those two? Increased pitch counts means 6 and even 5 inning starts.
Unlike almost all other Met pitchers, Wheeler has come up with a “lucky 7” when it comes to run production. I haven’t had the time to count the runs scored in his starts, but I believe it will outpace others. Of course , as everyone knows I’m all about team wins (as opposed to Pythagorean wins) (but not as a measure to award the CY young as a huge metric) and if he puts Ws in the column, then that’s awesome. What I gather is that Wheeler gives us the chance to win and overall fits a average profile. I’m there. I see him as a solid mid-rotation arm. Because he is so wild, and that wildness occurs early on in a game, we run the chance to fall behind knowing this team does not make a living come back late in games. Furthermore all the base runners make the defense play a harder more exhausting game. Also it leaves more innings for Collins to burn the pen through. I view Wheeler as a prime trade piece because his hype is that he is a front line starter—ace potential—and that would command MLB talent and/or blue chippers in return, even though Wheeler simply has not shown that to be true. DeGrom has already out-pitched Wheeler. So if he stays a Met and wins games that great; by the same token if he’s traded and returns a Starlin Castro/Addison Russell type, well that works too. Is there risk he could improve? Sure. Is there the chance we know who Wheeler is and how he will throw for the future? Sure. I know this, if he can bring real talent back, like your article from the other day says, I’d let him go.
Mets scored an average of 3.88 runs per game last year. Here’s the average support for their SP:
3.29 – Gee
3.40 – Niese
3.66 – JDG
4.09 – Wheeler
4.93 – Colon
Don’t know if this is asking too much, but since I don’t have a subscription to the play index, could you either provide Run support for each of the categories or possibly sending me the csv files?
Some of the drop offs in win% are pretty remarkable, and there has to be an explanation.
I did 36 queries for this piece and didn’t save them.
Of all our “studs”, I think Wheeler is the least projectable. Too inconsistent, and no one knows how long he needs to harness his stuff.
I’m far more focused on the maturation of the mental make-up which I view as on the rise, the fire in his belly to compete and get better. Those things are progressively developing and I believe are far more important than his innings average per game since he’s been here. I’m more concerned with where he’s going, not where he’s been other than learning from it.
I believe his development from the neck up will ultimately be the biggest factors in pitch efficiency, going deeper into games, he’s making clear he understands the need to pitch more to contact. He has beautiful mechanics, a smooth effortless delivery, very good stuff, all of which I think will eventually propel him up the #2 or ace food chain as he refines the mental side of his game. Let’s remember, this is a very young man, only 24, progressively honing competitive fire and it’s in-game application. Though I was previously in favor of trading him, he is now a pitcher I want on the mound as #3 starter in the playoffs, competitive juices ablaze.
A rare pro-Wheeler article, and immaculately researched. I simply don’t understand the lack of patience people have with Wheeler. As mentioned above, he’s only 24, and just had his first full year in the big leagues. To give up on him now would be a huge disservice to him and the team. He has one of the most consistent, live fastballs in the game, and he showed fairly steady improvement as the season wore on, a season in which he started the most games for the team I might add. If his getting traded brings in a stellar shortstop, a deal must be considered at the very least. But I personally am in no rush to get rid of this Met.
Let’s just say 24 ain’t young. Let’s imagine one other thing, the window to perform in the post season with the staff of dreams is relatively small, so giving him more time to develop is burning the candle from both ends. The mets have 3 legit goes at it before Harvey brings maximum trade value, as there is no way he will be a Met after entering free agency, but he will still be in NY. So with time so precious, just how long do you let wheeler “develop”? If he nets a guy like Castro, then I move him immediately.
Your Harvey point is spot on and so is your quote about burning the candle from both ends. The Mets have a window and if Wheeler brings me Castro I also would jump at it.
Great research Brian. I like Wheeler and though I wish he could go seven I can live with a solid 6 with the present Met bullpen.
I thought that was what the minor leagues was for? How much of an impact does not having a veteran catcher behind the plate affect his (and the other young starters) maturation process?
i think only 5 or 6 starters in all mlb averaged exactly 7 or more innings per start. most who came close got into the 7th more than wheeler did and hopefully will in 2015.
I’ve said before and I would love to say it again:
Wheeler and Gee for Profar.
That would be sooooo awesome.
As Wheeler’s biggest critic, Wheeler’s inability to get 7 IP is something I love to harp on.
But that’s not his biggest problem.
Wheeler’s biggest problem is the number of games that he can’t complete 6.
Last year, 10/32 starts were under 6 IP and it resulted in his pathetic 5.7 IP/game. If he’s not going to go 7+, he has got to bring the number of under 6 IP games way down.
As a comparison Jon Niese had only 6/30 under 6 (and 1 was because of injury) and he he had 12 games of 7+
Dillon Gee also had a similar under 6IP % as Wheeler, but he had none under 5IP while Wheeler had 6 under 5IP. And Gee also had 6/22 above 7.
So yes, 6 or 7 doesn’t matter that much if you’re content with Wheeler as a #4. But if you want Wheeler to take the step from #4 to #3, he’s gotta cut down the 4s and 5s, and if you want to him to take the further step to #1/2, he’s gotta start getting a ton more 7s, 8s and 9s.
Absolutely agree about the need to eliminate the early exits.
The majority of his trouble in this regard came either early or late in the season. In the middle of the year he went 6 or more innings in 14 of 18 starts and had a 2.78 ERA and a 1.182 WHIP.
He was terrible all the way around early in the year, so I’m not going to worry about that. In September, he failed to go 6 in three of his five starts and had a 4.21 ERA and a 1.422 WHIP.
I know you like to discount September starts but this is troublesome to me. Out loud I’m going to say that he was just tired and there’s nothing to be concerned about but inside, I’m thinking I’ll feel better when he starts being the pitcher he was the great majority of 2014 right off the bat.
However, there’s no way you can look at the complete output of Wheeler in 2014 and declare him a #4. That simply does not hold up to any scrutiny whatsoever
His ERA+ ranks him just around a mid-3.
Career FIP of 3.77 is probably around a 3, but FIP is unadjusted for league and ballpark.
His IP/game ranks around a high-5
Number of sub 5IP games probably a #5.
I average those out to a high number 4 starter so far. If you want to bump him up to a very low #3 for his durability (so far), i’d be somewhat Ok with that. But he’s only been in the big leagues for 1.5 years so i’m not going to give him credit for durability yet.
I find it very hard to prove he’s a #3 to be honest.
I forgot WHIP and SO/BB
Among the 73 NL pitchers who pitched 100 innings, Wheeler was 54/73 in WHIP. #4 there
Was 50th on the same list in SO/BB. Also #4.
Everything screams #4 about this guy.
The fact that people think he’s much better than this is why i keep yelling “Sell High”!
He is a mid rotation guy. A genuine 3 or 3.5. He may get to a 2 if he can control his wildness. Anyway, he’s hovering around 4 walks per nine, where top of the rotation guys are more like 2.
im not saying he couldnt get there perhaps. What I am saying is he has a reputation for being a front line guy, but the stats of a mid-rotation arm. If the hype gets us a relatively bigger haul, then he is the guy to move.
I don’t know about discounting starts in September in this matter for Wheeler.If he’s facing a team vying for a playoff spot then he should be pumped up for that. If he’s facing a team which is out of the playoff race and is using players that were September call ups then he should be just as effective (if not more). It would appear that Wheeler ran out of gas the last month. Conditioning? We’ll see in 2015.