On Metsblog.com earlier today, proprietor Matthew Cerrone compiled a few quotes to show that there is a louder-than-quiet confidence in the Mets’ clubhouse.
“I think 2015 is going to be a good year for us,” says manager Terry Collins.
“We should be able to make the playoffs next year,” crows pitcher Jacob deGrom.
“I know what’s about to happen here,” nods pitcher Zack Wheeler.
And the granddaddy of ‘em all, pitcher Matt Harvey, proclaimed “I think we all expect to [get to the post-season.] [W]e’re not going to let anybody think otherwise.”
Heady stuff, no? Notice that these confident quotes are coming from starting pitchers – admittedly, the strength of the team. This is all well and good on December 4. We don’t know what the final 40-man roster is going to look like yet. We haven’t yet scoured the newswires for word coming from the Winter Meetings in San Diego – that particular madness doesn’t begin until this weekend. There are still free agents looking for places to land, trades that need to sprout. It all sounds great to fans, but bear in mind that even as lowly a squad as the 1979 edition of the Mets was brimming with confidence in the off-season – “We Can Win!” blared the t-shirts waiting for them on arrival in St. Petersburg for Spring Training. They lost 99 games.
The Mets have to back up all this talk with performance, of course. All the brave boasts about contending, playoffs, post-season, challenging Washington, managing Harvey’s innings, etc. can disappear like so much Iron Triangle chop shop exhaust fumes. What if Harvey’s surgically restored wing isn’t up to task? What if Sandy Alderson can’t import a valid shortstop? What if deGrom and Wheeler regress more than predicted? It won’t take long for the tabloid headlines to turn a promising campaign into a bad pun.
As has been said, the Mets have a unique opportunity in 2015. A prime spot in the their division is up for grabs and with the Yankees apparently in eclipse – if only for a moment – a chunk of local fan fealty could also be at stake.
To put it in the vernacular, all this talk must also be walked.
Follow me on Twitter @CharlieHangley.
I don’t think Wheeler is predicted to regress. He was league average last season and I think the expectation is he should get better.
Very much agree. I don’t know why Steamer is already predicting a big drop-off in IP and SO for Wheeler, and even the nearly 3.90 ERA seems to be rather pessimistic. Meanwhile, they have Harvey pitching more innings and striking out nearly 40 more guys. If healthy, I don’t see why Wheeler can’t lead this team in IP and possibly even SO. Maybe the algorithm knows something we don’t.
He cant get through 6 innings most nights. Thats tough to rack up IP. No projection tool is needed to see his myriad of issues.
Three Mets SP made 30 starts last year. Wheeler completed six innings 22 times, Colon 23 and Niese 24. The other two guys were better but if the basis of hating Wheeler is this — that’s pretty flimsy.
I’d alter Chris’s argument to this:
Wheeler can’t pitch into the 6th most night.
Wheeler completed 5 innings or less 9 times out of 32 (28%).
Niese-3/30(1 due to injury) 10%
Colon-5/31 16%
Gee-3/22 14%
deGrom-3/22 14%
Really?
Leaving aside the idea that percentages are a horrible way of looking at the issue, because they exaggerate small differences, on what planet is doing something 72% of the time not “most nights?”
I just don’t understand the contortions that you’re so eager to go through to make Wheeler to be worse than he is.
“on what planet is doing something 72% of the time not “most nights?”
Baseball context Brian… baseball context…
.255 was the average BA in baseball this year.
Hitters failing 70% of the time is considered a great player.
Hitters failing 80% are considered sucky.
Pitchers not getting into the 6th more than 25% of the time qualifies as not getting the job done “most nights”
It may be a stretch, but I compare Wheeler to Max Scherzer early in his career.
Both pitchers were drafted early in their respective first rounds, both similar 9.2 K/9 ratios in their sophomore season, and they both walk people to eventually have trouble pitching deep into games.
Obviously Scherzer has blossomed into an ace that has racked up Cy Young votes and over 1000 strikeouts, but how long did that take? Scherzer, in his first two, and only two seasons, in Arizona he pitched very similar to Wheeler and they traded him. I am aware that this article/comment section had nothing to do with this topic- but I’m tired of hearing the same thing. If Wheeler is traded, the sky remains the limit (unless he goes to Colorado), and we could watch him develop into an ace for another organization.
In short, Wheeler and Scherzer had similar profiles and it would be downright foolish to trade a guy with that much potential.
Baseball ref has Vance Worley as Wheeler’s top comp so far. #2 is the oft-injured Josh Johnson.
My personal comp for Wheeler is AJ Burnett. Guy with great stuff, but can lose his control in an instant. Constantly overrated and overpaid as well. Has a few good seasons, but never quite figures it out.
Even though the sky remains the limit, he’s a back-end starter right now. And if you can get a guaranteed, good hitter for a question mark, why would you not consider it?
It’s important to note that you are using age-based comparisons, or what the players did thru a similar age. It’s easy to scoff now at Vance Worley, because he was forgettable in 2012 and 2013. But he was quite good in 2011, when he had a 127 ERA+ and finished third in the ROY balloting.
And I think we’d all sign on the dotted line if Wheeler over the next two years posted what Josh Johnson did in his age 25-26 seasons, when he had a 151 ERA+ over 61 starts.
Edit: I think Burnett is a reasonable outcome for Wheeler and I said so back in last May. But so are Bartolo Colon and Jason Schmidt.
Right. My mentioning of Worley and Johnson is that there is a wide range of outcomes that can happen to Wheeler.
He could become dominant like Johnson, but can also just fall apart like Worley.
I, like Chris F, cannot see why he’s deemed an “untouchable” by the GM and most of the fan base. The odds are against him becoming that dominant ace, and if you can get a proven above average hitter for him, you should make the swap.
I don’t think anyone should be considered untouchable.
Also, Worley was very good for the Pirates last year in half a season. It will be interesting to see if he bounces back and puts up a good full season in 2015.
I dont mean it to be making him worse than he is, but more like representing him for what he actually is. All this unimagined blossoming, sky’s the limit talent is all hype thus far. In reality hes a mid rotation starter that leverages the pen a lot. For a mid level starter, thats fine. But for the supposed untamed talent that makes him untouchable? I dont get that one bit. Hes not Harvey. Hes not deGrom. Any idea he is gonna turn into Scherzer is simply hope. Might he? Sure. Might he not? Thats more likely. There are not many as good as Max. The projection algorithms seem to be forecasting based on what he has delivered, not what the hype is.
Chris, to me what you wrote here seems fine. He’s not Harvey; let’s not pretend that he is.
But the vibe I get most other times you mention him is that he stinks. You wrote, “He cant get through 6 innings most nights.” But he’s in the exact same vicinity as the other guys on the team that made 30 starts in this regard. He had an extra start or two and finished a start or two behind the others. He’s slightly inferior to Colon and Niese in this regard. Slightly.
In Niese’s first full year in the majors, he didn’t finish six innings 14 times in 30 starts. Wheeler was better than that in his first full year in 2014. Niese has improved in this category as he’s gotten experience. I see no reason why Wheeler can’t do the same.
While he’s not Harvey, Wheeler was better than I expected last year. I’m cautiously optimistic he’ll be even better in 2015.
Fair enough. I just keep hearing about Harvey deGrom and Wheeler as untouchable. I dont believe Wheeler is in that group. I guess I feel like the other side of the pendulum some times! He’s not a terrible pitcher by any means. While his hype value is high, I would be inclined to move him for a guy like Bogaerts.
Guys like Ian Desmond are pretty rare. I would far rather have a gold glove at short that can bat 7th or 8th, over another Murph-like guy who can hit but is a defensive liability. As Wright ages and his range continues to drop, IMO the person at short needs to be young, able to go left and right, and have a gun strapped to his shoulder.
that last bit was meant to mean if dealing Wheeler could deliver a slick fielding SS (like Bogaerts) that could hit a bit here and there, Id pull the trigger in heart beat.
It’s not just hype though, there are good reasons to predict Wheeler developing into an ace-level pitcher. His slider is the fastest on average in the mlb and his fastball is 5th fastest. With more experience in the bigs there’s every reason to think he can put it all together.
Confidence in December is all well and good but upgrading at shortstop and a right handed batting bench outfielder through December acquisitions will translate into wins better.
If the players feel confident now, then they should feel more confident if the front office improves this team at the December winter meetings.
In RA Dickey’s book he mentioned how in June 2012 the Mets were in first place but he felt let down when the front office didn’t provide reinforcements. The Mets, although flawed, are now within striking distance of a playoff spot and should address these flawed positions and not let this group of players down.