Yesterday we laid out a scenario for adding expansion teams in MLB. The rules for stocking expansion teams were much friendlier in the 1990s than they were in the 1960s. In fact, you could argue if they expand again, they would cut back from the generous terms given Arizona and Tampa Bay back in 1997. But for our purposes, we’re going to copy those rules for this piece.
Existing teams can protect 15 guys in their entire organization, not just those on the 40-man roster. However, players chosen in the past two drafts plus those who signed three years ago at 18 or younger are protected. So they run no risk of losing Dominic Smith or Michael Conforto. Also, guys signed at 18 or younger in 2012 include Gavin Cecchini, Marcos Molina and Amed Rosario.
Additionally the expansion draft lasted three rounds, although the third round was only half as long as the first two. So, some MLB teams lost two players and others lost three. The Mets actually made out well in this regard as they only lost two players – Cory Lidle and Carlos Mendoza. They undoubtedly would lose someone more valuable this time around. Once a player was taken, the team could pull back three additional players.
So, who would the Mets protect in the 2014 Expansion Draft?
There are 12 no-brainers. They are: Travis d’Arnaud, Jacob deGrom, Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, Dilson Herrera, Juan Lagares, Steven Matz, Rafael Montero, Brandon Nimmo, Kevin Plawecki, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler.
The assumption is that the expansion clubs would not be very interested in picking up guys on the wrong side of 30 with long-term commitments. Curtis Granderson is likely a great guy but if someone wants to assume the payments on him, it’s unlikely the Mets would try to stop them. That’s why he and others didn’t make the no-brainer list.
Nine of the top 10 prospects from Baseball Prospectus’ 2015 list for the Mets are either protected are not eligible and the final one is Jhoan Urena, who played last year in Brooklyn and is probably too far away to merit serious consideration for clubs who likely will be focusing on players ready to contribute in a year to 18 months, if not sooner.
Here are the nine guys under consideration for the final three spots on the 15-man protected list:
Jeurys Familia – a 25-year-old potential closer would be a desirable commodity for an expansion club.
Wilmer Flores – Many would consider him a no-brainer but it’s not clear he can handle SS in the majors and he loses a ton of value to the Mets if he has to play 2B or 3B.
Dillon Gee – Most teams figure to protect young cost-controlled pitching and it’s doubtful there would be a dozen major-league ready starters available better than Gee in the draft.
Jenrry Mejia – See the Familia comment. Has the advantage of already experiencing success as a closer.
Daniel Murphy – An impending free agent, Murphy’s contract status probably keeps him from being selected.
Jon Niese – If left unprotected he would likely be the first pick from the Mets. Would Terry Collins view that as a bad thing? How worried are they really about his shoulder?
Bobby Parnell – Could easily see a team gambling on him in the final round.
Matt Reynolds – It’s easy to imagine a scenario where the Mets expose both he and Flores and if one gets picked, using the other with Ruben Tejada to cover SS in the majors in 2015. Of course, they could still get someone else to come in and play the position, too.
David Wright – Some would consider it a crime not to protect Wright. But would an expansion team really risk the $107 million left on his contract?
After much hemming and hawing, the 15-man protected list is filled out with Familia, Mejia and Niese.
The expectation is that either Flores or Gee would be lost on the first round. Ultimately, the deciding factor for me was that the Mets have had so much trouble with their bullpen recently that it made more sense to protect their 8th and 9th inning guys rather than a back end rotation starter or a player who might not be able to hack it at short.
It would certainly be defensible to swap Flores for Niese with the thinking that the Mets would be able to handle the loss of a SP better. Niese gets the nod here because with Flores, there’s a chance that an expansion team goes after Gee and you can pull Flores back. In the 1997 expansion draft, the first three picks were pitchers and 10 pitchers were selected before the first nominal shortstop was taken (Andy Sheets).
Of course you could counter argue that the expansion club would not be forced to carry Flores at short and he would be more desirable as a 2B or 3B to a brand new team. Like mentioned earlier – a bunch of hemming and hawing.
The three pull backs would be whichever one of Flores/Gee remains, Murphy and Parnell. Feel free to substitute Reynolds for Murphy here, especially if Flores goes in the first round. Without knowing who went in the first round, it would be foolish to even speculate who the Mets would lose in the second round. It seems likely a team would be interested in an outfielder in his prime like Matt den Dekker or Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Or perhaps a minor league pitcher nearly ready for the majors like Matthew Bowman or Cory Mazzoni. It’s even possible a bullpen arm like Vic Black or Josh Edgin would be in demand.
Regardless, the depth of the Mets’ system would take a hit in this expansion draft. But for me it would be a small price to pay for getting rid of interleague play.
Very thought provoking Brian. I enjoyed the read!
I suppose part of the deal might be understanding how deep the pockets were for the expansion teams. I’ve said it before and I’ll keep with it: I think DW is a Met lifer, and will join Seaver as team legend as the “forever” face of the team, regardless if he makes the Hall. An upstart team might just like the look of a quality vet like Wright. To me bull pen arms are like the weather. I wouldn’t protect Mejia or Parnell. I wouldn’t protect Gee or Niese. Neither have any trade value as of today, and both likely with potential serious injury situations. Of your original 12, I see d’Arnaud as someone I would really need to hem/haw on to protect — the others are spot on IMO. Right now, I see him as more a liability, and can’t help but wonder if his blocking of Plawecki is bad for the Mets. As the worst receiver in the game and a Jeckyll and Hyde bat, it’s hard for me to be too enthusiastic. He’s also a major concussion risk on top of being injury prone. Deleting him, gives me 4 to keep: Wright, Familia, Reynolds, and Murph (for immediate trade value).
What would be interesting if this were to happen is that it could provide the shake up the team needs to sever ties with folks that really are not making the team better.
Would it get rid of interleague? It’s hard to believe that the brain child and fave of Selig would be so rapidly taken down. Also, although I hope not in my lifetime, it seems reasonable to believe an expansion would be coupled with the end of the NL. Like it or not the DH for everyone is where the mlb is headed.
Thanks Chris!
I wrote a long reply earlier but it seems to have disappeared in cyberspace. Anyway, I expect TDA to improve defensively in 2015.
I have to say, this is exactly the kind of article that sets Mets360 apart from all the other blogs out there. Well done Brian.
Thanks Chris!
From a pure baseball perspective, you might take the risk that no young team wants to take on such a huge contract, but It would be a PR nightmare if you didn’t protect Wright.
I’d drop either Mejia or Familia for him.
You’re right in that it would be unbelievably bad PR. It will be a great day when the Mets make decisions based in reality and common sense over PR.
Hmmm, perhaps i wasn’t clear on my position.
Common sense would dictate that a healthy David Wright is better than Mejia or Familia over the next few years though.
Couple that with the fact that you’d be creating a rift between your franchise player, who you’d want to market and attend Met events after he’s retired, and it’s a no-brainer to me that you’d protect him.
Baseball is still a business, and Wright would generate dollars for the Mets even after he retires.
But there’s two sides to the coin.
It’s not just “Who don’t you want to lose.” It’s also, “Who does the other team want to have/pay.”
Wow, this really gets one thinking about who remains the most important to a team. I agree with 10 of your definite 12, but Plawecki and Herrera would not be on there for me. I would probably replace them with Wright and Familia. That’s not to say that they would not be on the protected list, but they would not be definite for me. For the final three spots, I would probably pick Flores, Mejia, and Herrera.
It’s interesting what you said about Granderson, because if I were an expansion team I wouldn’t mind picking him up. He provides veteran leadership to a team that is most likely going to be filled with 20-23 year old mid-level prospects.
Great article! But in my opinion, gotta protect DW. He is the face of the organization, and an upstart team would definitely take him. He’s one year removed from an All-star season and was injury plagued last year. A healthy DW is still the biggest threat in the mets lineup. He is still a career .300 hitter, and he can still do that next year, his bad stretches this year were revolved around injuries, and him trying to do to much when the rest of the lineup was doing not much at all, which in my book shows the amount he cares for this team and this fan base. He could have taken a big contract from another team and darted when he was a free agent, but he chose to stay here even when he knew the team was in the middle of a huge rebuild. He is a life long metter, our captain only the 4th in our history. He had one bad season, in which i can definitely see him bouncing back from. He is extremely more valuable to this team than Niese. There would be a huge hole in the heart of met fans, and the team itself if DW was lost in a scenario like this. Even if somehow he wasnt taken, imagine the huge hit his confidence in the the team would take. Gotta protect DW.
I’m probably posting this to the wrong article but I had trouble posting this yesterday and I wanted to comment on the whole expansion proposal. I agree it is investable that Baseball will expand to 32 teams in the next 20 years and that the most likely realignment is 8 divisions of 4 teams each but we have several differences on what shape the rest of it will take. On the Playoffs I think the best configuration would be to eliminate the wild cards and simply have the 4 division winners in each league seeded by record. Obviously then you would have 1 host 4 and 2 host 3 in a best of 5 series in each league. Now I know your goal was to eliminate interleague play but I actually think it is necessary to create the best schedule Idea and I break it down this way. Play each team in your division 14 times (7 home 7 road) use 2. 3 or 4 game series as needed for the best schedule for 42 games. Then play 8 games (4 home and 4 road) agents the other 12 teams in your league. You can use 2 or 4 game series as necessary for these 96 games. That’s a total of 138 games leaving 24 games left for interleague play. Here I think you take a page from the NFL and have the teams in one division all play the same opponents and alternate those divisions every year so on a 4 year cycle every team will move thru every city. With your 4 interleague opponents each year you will play 6 games (3 home and 3 Road) that gets you to 162. Now my biggest disagreement comes from the cities you target for expansion I don’t think MLB wants to blow up there mid Atlantic minor league partners so I don’t think they’re going to charlotte and San Antonio is a TV rights nightmare so San Antonio is a no go for me. I do however agree that Montreal and Portland are on the short list and though I believe there are 3 other cities in consideration (Vegas, Mexico City, San Juan) lets for now assume Montreal and Portland since I actually think they are the best Options. The Divisional alignment is the most subjective and I’m sure some will have issues but here is my proposal
NL East- Mets, Phillies, Pirates, Nationals
AL East- Montreal, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees
NL North- Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Reds
AL North- Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Indians
NL South- Orioles, Braves, Marlins, Rays
AL South- D-Backs, Rangers, Astros Royals
NL West- Portland, Giants, Dodgers, Padres
AL West- Mariners, Rockies, A’s, Angels
Now as for the subject of today’s post I agree with you 12 automatic protects but as for the other 3 I’m in no hurry to protect Niece with his injury history so the 3 I’d take are Flores, Mejia, and Famillia. I fully expect to lose either John or Gee which ever one I don’t loss I pull back after the first round. The other 2 pullbacks for me would be Vic Black and Reynolds. It’s a very thought provoking topic and I’ve always felt you should have an alternative when you critique the above is my alternative.
The possibilities are endless! My brain hurts now.
I protect Wright and his 2.8 bWAR in an injury year.
I think Wright’s contract is his protection Expansion teams are going to have to build an entire team all of the minor league teams and the 40 man. Add to that all of the teams (Charlotte, San Antonio, or in my Proposal Montreal and Portland) are huge markets, they are medium to small. Wright won’t be taken and if he is I think I’d rather protect young talent over veterans on the back side of 30. Even if they are the face of the franchise I think letting sentimentality rule these choices are how teams get into trouble.
On January 20, 1984 the Mets left unprotected as a free agent compensation pick “The Franchise”, Tom Seaver for the very reasons that you and Brian are alluding to. He was 39 years old at the time but still pitched 475 innings to a 3.95 and 3.17 ERA over the next two years with a 16-11 and 15-11 record. I think not realizing how special “these” players are is what gets a team in trouble. I would not give up on Wright , especially at age 21 and risk another White Sox debacle.
This from a NY Times article on January 21st, 1984
“The pool system was created after the players’ strike in 1981 to compensate teams that lose free agents: Any team that loses a premium player can select any player from the pool of those not protected by their parent clubs. The White Sox lost the pitcher Dennis Lamp to the Toronto Blue Jays in the November free-agent draft.”
I raise this only because I think my larger point hold that an expansion franchise is not likely to want Wrights contract. The White Sox were an established team looking to replace a key contributor. I don’t think the replacement pool was part of the more recent drafts precisely because of the Seaver issue and I’m sure the players were worried. however this all may be a moot point because as the article I posted earlier indicates Wright may have been protected by rule anyway.
JC, your contributions enhanced this piece. Thanks and I look forward to reading your opinions and contributions in the future.
Brian, do you know if there were any provision for “face of the franchise” players in the draft? For example, Wright appears to have a no-trade clause and 10-5 rights. Would he need further protection in an expansion draft? I would see it difficult for the MLBPA to permit violation of those types of contracts.
I did a very quick search while writing the article to see if there was anything about players with no-trade clauses and expansion drafts but didn’t see anything. Technically, it’s not a trade but I can’t imagine a player of Wright’s stature being happy about ending up elsewhere.
After seeing Chris F’s question I did a quick google search for MLB Expansion draft rules, this is what I found:
All Players in an organization are eligible to be drafted, except those with no prior major league experience who have less than three years service if signed at age 19 or older or have less than four years of service if signed at age 18 or younger.
Protected Players:
From the eligible list, major league teams may protect 15 players prior to the draft. Ten/five players (players with ten years of major league service, five consecutive with the same team) and players with no-trade clauses in their contracts for the 1998 season must be on the protected list unless they waive those rights.
Rules of the Expansion Draft:
The Expansion Draft will last three rounds.
A coin flip will determine which team selects first round. The winner of the coin flip may choose select the first and fourth picks or second and third picks in the first round. After the first four picks, the Diamondbacks and Devil Rays will alternate picks for the remainder of the draft.
Starting with the fourth pick in the first round, the Diamondbacks and Devil Rays will alternate turns, each selecting one player. A total of 28 players will be selected in the first round, one from each team. At the completion of the round, each expansion team will have 14 players.
Prior to the second round, each major league team will be able to protect an additional three players. The second round will proceed in the same manner as the first, with each major league team losing an additional player. At the conclusion of the round, the Diamondbacks and Devil Rays will each have 28 players.
Prior to the third, each team will be able to protect an additional three players.
During the third, seven American League and seven National League teams will lose one player each, giving the Diamondback and Devil Rays a total of 35 players at the conclusion of the third round.
It would appear Wright would be one of your 15 by rule so you will only have 14 to protect. If we accept the 12 locks and Wright means you have 2 spots left. For me those 2 spots would go to Familia and Mejia.
Thanks for finding this, JC! Would you mind giving me the link?
this is the link I copyied from because I thought it’s text was more compatable with this site:
http://www.nowhitting.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=530&catid=28&Itemid=40
But 3 other sites said the same thing
Thanks!
FWIW – I asked for the link not because I didn’t believe you but rather because I did look and didn’t find it. That’ll teach me to use the Yahoo search engine instead of Google.
I did not mind you asking I was out taking care of some work when you asked for the link so I did not know you wanted it till I got home. Like i said I find this topic very interesting though it may be decades before we know what the next expansion looks like. I know my proposal has issues like I’m not sure teams or players will give up a playoff team. It also seems the rules for draft change each time so who knows what the rules will be next time. So this is really just one giant intellectual exercise but it is fun, at least to me. Hopefully the mets give us actual player moves to talk about soon.