Why Wilmer Flores’ defense will be fine in 2015

Many fans are clamoring for the Mets to improve at shortstop before going into the season . Collins said that Ruben Tejada is still a possibility to start at short in 2015, even though he has been given many chances and profiles nicely as a backup middle infielder. For most other options, the Mets would have to give up a significant amount, Troy Tulowitzki, or trade for a player that is just as many question marks as Flores. They could sign Stephen Drew, but he is not that big of an improvement defensively and has not hit well recently. There was reports that the Twins offered Eduardo Escobar for Dillon Gee, but the deal fell through. Wilmer Flores at shortstop should be the way the Mets in 2015 barring a horrendous spring training.

Looking at the advanced defensive metrics, Flores is actually one of the better defensive shortstops in the league. A total of 38 players in 2014 started at least 400 innings at shortstop. Of those 38 shortstops Flores ranked sixth in UZR/150, 21st in DRS, and 1st in RZR or how many plays in the zone will the player make. Flores did have significantly less time played than most of the shortstops, so as he would play more the numbers would even out, but his numbers from last year look pretty good. UZR/150 attempts to display how well a player will do over an entire season of playing. There are tiers for determining how well a player is with above 15 being gold glove caliber, above 10 is great, and it keeps going down. Flores ranks above Drew and they played in roughly the same amount of innings. Flores had a UZR/150 of 12.5 and Drew had one of 8.1. He ranks higher than Tulowitzki and Escobar who played roughly twice as much as Flores did at shortstop. His defensive runs saved was not good and likely would go around -10 from -3 over an entire season placing him near the bottom around Jed Lowrie, but still ahead of Jose Reyes and Elvis Andrus. The last stat is Revised Zone Rating, which measures how many balls that are hit into the zone of the shortstop are turned into outs. Flores did not have nearly as many plays as the other players, but he had a higher rate of turning balls in his zone into outs. The stat is very basic, but it shows on balls that are his job to get whether or not he is able to turn those into outs. There were 118 balls hit into his zone and 104 of those he turned into outs giving him in RZR of .881. The next closest was Jimmy Rollins of .851. There is another stat that measures how many balls the shortstop fields that are out of his zone. Flores ranked last among the group of 38, but the stat is not all the accurate because there are a lot of factors such as how many balls are hit that are outside of the shortstop’s zone that they are still able to get to. With Flores not getting as many balls that are outside his zone and Daniel Murphy not having the greatest range there are going to be a lot of balls going up the middle for base hits.

Drew’s name has been tossed around a lot as someone that the Mets should consider to sign and take Flores’ spot, but he is not much better than Flores if at all defensively. Flores played 30 more innings than Drew did at shortstop in 2014, so there numbers are very easy to compare to each other. Inside Edge scouts determine each ball that is hit in play and place it into a category based on difficulty of the play and how likely a typical shortstop would field the ball successfully. In balls that are in the category for the player is pretty much guaranteed to make the play, Flores made 136 plays out of 138 and Drew made 131 plays out of 134. Based on percentage in that category the only player that bested Flores was former Phillies’ shortstop Rollins. The next category where the Inside Edge scouts determined that is likely that a player would make the play. Flores and Drew both ranked in the bottom third in this category with a percentage of 66.7%. The lower third also included Escobar, and two other shortstops the Mets talked about acquiring Brad Miller and Alexei Ramirez. The next category of where the play had was a tossup whether the shortstop would or would not make the play Flores did not rank well here, but only had three opportunities and made one play. The next category where it is viewed that the player had an unlikely shot at making the play, Flores only had four opportunities and made one, which put him in the top third, but again not a huge sample size. The last tier where the player is very unlikely to field the ball the percentages are so low or the sample sizes are so small that it is not that great of indicator, but Flores was near the top. Based on the Inside Edge rankings Tulowitzki is actually one of the best fielders because his lowest ranking about of the five percentage categories his lowest appearance was number 6 in mid-range category, which is also the lowest Andrelton Simmons appeared.

Using some programming knowledge, I was able to create a few lists using some advanced data. I took all of the information from Fangraphs Insider’s Edge for players that played more than 400 innings at short in 2014. Then I took all the percentages of how each player performed in each tier and based on where they appeared on the list the player got a score 1-38, 1 being the best in that category and 38 being the worst. I added them all up and sorted them by their scores. The system as it stands is not perfect as it does not take into account if two players tied in percentage and has each category contribute evenly to the overall score, but it does provide an interesting perspective on how each player compares to the rest of the league.

Player Names	All Five Tiers	Player Name	Top Four Tiers	Player Names	Top Three Tiers	Player Names	Top Two Tiers
Troy Tulowitzki	15	Troy Tulowitzki	12	Andrelton Simmons	10	Troy Tulowitzki	5
Andrelton Simmons	17	Andrelton Simmons	13	Troy Tulowitzki	11	Andrelton Simmons	9
Everth Cabrera	46	Alexi Amarista	33	Alexi Amarista	24	Zack Cozart	12
Alexi Amarista	53	Everth Cabrera	41	Zack Cozart	25	Jordy Mercer	14
Brandon Crawford	66	Zack Cozart	45	Jimmy Rollins	36	Alexi Amarista	22
Jean Segura	69	Brandon Crawford	55	Jordy Mercer	38	Brandon Crawford	23
Chris Owings	70	Adeiny Hechavarria	63	Everth Cabrera	39	Jhonny Peralta	23
Zack Cozart	70	Alcides Escobar	63	Yunel Escobar	42	Ruben Tejada	24
Alcides Escobar	72	J.J. Hardy	63	Alexei Ramirez	48	Jimmy Rollins	24
Adeiny Hechavarria	76	Alexei Ramirez	64	Jean Segura	48	Everth Cabrera	25
Alexei Ramirez	79	Elvis Andrus	65	Stephen Drew	48	Jose Ramirez	26
Didi Gregorius	81	Jimmy Rollins	66	Ruben Tejada	49	Wilmer Flores	29
Ruben Tejada	81	Jean Segura	67	Brandon Crawford	50	Adeiny Hechavarria	31
Wilmer Flores	82	Chris Owings	69	J.J. Hardy	51	J.J. Hardy	36
Elvis Andrus	84	Jordy Mercer	69	Andrew Romine	52	Starlin Castro	36
J.J. Hardy	85	Ruben Tejada	71	Jhonny Peralta	55	Yunel Escobar	37
Ian Desmond	91	Xander Bogaerts	72	Alcides Escobar	57	Xander Bogaerts	38
Eugenio Suarez	94	Stephen Drew	72	Ian Desmond	57	Didi Gregorius	38
Xander Bogaerts	95	Ian Desmond	74	Didi Gregorius	57	Stephen Drew	39
Erick Aybar	97	Wilmer Flores	75	Elvis Andrus	58	Ian Desmond	39
Jimmy Rollins	97	Didi Gregorius	75	Xander Bogaerts	58	Jean Segura	41
Stephen Drew	98	Yunel Escobar	76	Adeiny Hechavarria	59	Andrew Romine	44
Jordy Mercer	101	Erick Aybar	79	Chris Owings	61	Alexei Ramirez	44
Starlin Castro	102	Jhonny Peralta	84	Eugenio Suarez	61	Eugenio Suarez	45
Yunel Escobar	111	Eugenio Suarez	86	Jose Ramirez	61	Alcides Escobar	46
Jhonny Peralta	114	Andrew Romine	87	Wilmer Flores	62	Erick Aybar	47
Marwin Gonzalez	117	Starlin Castro	88	Starlin Castro	65	Eduardo Escobar	47
Jose Reyes	119	Jose Reyes	95	Erick Aybar	69	Marwin Gonzalez	48
Jonathan Villar	121	Marwin Gonzalez	96	Jed Lowrie	76	Elvis Andrus	48
Andrew Romine	123	Jose Ramirez	99	Hanley Ramirez	78	Asdrubal Cabrera	49
Asdrubal Cabrera	128	Jonathan Villar	105	Asdrubal Cabrera	79	Jose Reyes	49
Jose Ramirez	137	Hanley Ramirez	111	Jose Reyes	80	Jed Lowrie	53
Eduardo Escobar	142	Jed Lowrie	112	Jonathan Villar	84	Hanley Ramirez	57
Hanley Ramirez	145	Eduardo Escobar	113	Marwin Gonzalez	85	Chris Owings	58
Josh Rutledge	147	Asdrubal Cabrera	116	Eduardo Escobar	85	Jonathan Villar	67
Jed Lowrie	149	Josh Rutledge	120	Josh Rutledge	94	Derek Jeter	68
Brad Miller	162	Brad Miller	134	Derek Jeter	104	Josh Rutledge	68
Derek Jeter	169	Derek Jeter	136	Brad Miller	107	Brad Miller	73

It should come to no surprise that a few names appear at the top of a few lists like Tulowitzki, Simmons, Everth Cabrera, and Zack Cozart. Compared to the shortstop’s the Mets have been linked to just based on defense alone, Flores does not seem that bad. Drew and Flores both go up and down in the lists, but are not that far off from each other and stay in the middle of the pack and so does the Red Sox young shortstop Xander Bogaerts. On the easier plays Flores is better defensively than Elvis Andrus, but he takes over in the middle and they even out towards the end. Flores appeared above Asdrubal Cabrera, Derek Jeter, Brad Miller, Jed Lowrie, Erick Aybar, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Jonathan Villar, Marwin Gonzalez, Eduardo Escobar, Josh Rutledge, and all-star shortstop Starlin Castro. Flores was helped out a lot by the fact that the only player that had a higher percentage in the almost guaranteed plays was Rollins.

There were a lot of numbers that were thrown around that were by no means conventional numbers. The point was not to prove that Flores is going to win the gold glove at shortstop this year or even be a finalist, but just to show that he is not as bad as everyone thinks he is when you look closely at the advanced data. There are better options than him defensively, but when compared to the other major league shortstop’s he can hold his own. He is not going to get to as many balls as speedster Evereth Cabrera, or throw rockets over to first like Simmons, but when Flores needs to make the plays, he makes the plays. Before 2014, he had not played shortstop consistently since he was in Single A+ back in 2011. As he gets more playing time at short he will get more comfortable out there and look smoother when fielding the balls. Tulowitzki would be a great addition to the team offensively and defensively, but with the size of his contract and the amount of prospects that would need to be given up in order to attain him, Flores should be given a shot to fully prove what he can do being run out everyday at shortstop.

21 comments on “Why Wilmer Flores’ defense will be fine in 2015”

Peter Hyatt On December 15, 2014 at 3:50 pm

and…we keep Noah and do not trade for an oft-injured statistically bloated, 30 year old SS.

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Name On December 15, 2014 at 4:19 pm

Sorry, but pretty pointless exercise in my opinion. Defensive stats need at least 2-3 years to be considered reliable, and Flores has 1/3 of a season’s worth of data.

I don’t know why most people assume his offense is a given. I’m worried more about that than his defense.

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- eric On December 15, 2014 at 4:32 pm
  
  I just don’t get it. He has hit everywhere he has played. And he started to hit at the ML level last year once given an opportunity and put into a run producing spot in the lineup. My concern is right now he has to bat 8th, which could stunt his potential. But the guy is a clear threat to go .280 20-25 80-100 rbi.
  
  And as to the defense – finally a voice of reason with this article. Just how many games in the win and loss column do people believe the supposed horror combo of Murphy and Flores will cost us? Surely far less than their offense will provide.
  
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  - Patrick Albanesius On December 15, 2014 at 7:25 pm
    
    That looks like a career year for Flores, if he ever can reach those numbers. I imagine the combo of Flores and Murphy might cost about two games each between them. Four games might be the difference between a Wild Card, and going home, so I get why people are so nervous about that up the middle D. But as Murphy is most likely the guy who will be leaving sooner, it gives the team options to improve the middle while still giving Flores some due diligence at SS. There’s just no slam dunk solution available. I mentioned Zobrist in another post comment, but what about Brock Holt from Boston? The Red Sox have no position open for him, and he has plenty of offensive potential.
    
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    - jeff On December 16, 2014 at 12:28 am
      
      are you actually saying brock holt will be better offensively than wilmer flores? brock holt? because if you are lol
      
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upsetmet On December 15, 2014 at 5:54 pm

Oh please enough with this guy already. Do we wanna win or cower in fear over giving up some unproven players? I swear it’s like the FO has fans under their spell. The cheap option is not always the best and especially in this case. Sure Flores has hit and thats all fine and dandy but his bat is nothing special, his defense is horrendous. He’s hit at every level and maybe he can play decent at 2B or 3B but he’s no upgrade over Wright or Murphy. But he hasnt been anywhere close to a fringe average short stop. The guy is best suited on another team. Lets get a real SS that can play the position and be an impact player. Tulo works for me but theres others out there. Good pitching needs good fielding. And flores has never played well at short, so if the bat goes he’s basically a zombie out there. … Flores at short.. Give me a break.

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Chris F On December 15, 2014 at 9:13 pm

I guess it’s about this time every year I somehow find it necessary to trot out the old Mets fans experiencing Stockholm Syndrome, and corollary extensions.

We get used to eating the gruel fed to us by Alderson and his goon squad that we get a can of Friskies and after so many times having been told it’s wild line-caught salmon, we believe it. It’s along the lines of sympathizing and defending our captors.

And so it is with Wilmer Flores. After hearing so many times he’s legit, it’s natural to somehow believe it. And considering we have Tejada in the wings, it’s even more natural…and the desire is so strong to have success that hope triumphs over reason. I have yet to hear a single baseball person mention anything positive enough that Flores could bean every day shortstop. Take a look at the fangraphs scouting report on Flores. It’s eye opening. Compare it to a tiring aging Rollins. Shortstop is a critical position, and we are prepared to trot out an experiment with enough deficiencies that making league average would be huge. That rarely ends up in October baseball. Anyway, my money says there is very little chance he is the opening day shortstop…and the more Alderson says he is, the more I believe there’s little chance of it. Flores is ground chuck, not filet mignon.

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- Pete On December 16, 2014 at 12:09 am
  
  Just take a look at the Dodgers. What a difference when you have a front office that understands how important it is to be strong defensively up the middle. Jimmy Rollins at 36 years of age over Hanley Ramirez? Howie Kendrick over Dee Gordon. Matt Kemp for Yasmani Grandal? What did Friedman say after the trades? We’re a better “team” now.
  
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  - Chris F On December 16, 2014 at 8:24 am
    
    Yep
    
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Metsense On December 15, 2014 at 10:52 pm

A very interesting arguement for Flores at shortstop and I believe he will consistently catch the balls hit to him but in your own words “With Flores not getting as many balls that are outside his zone and Daniel Murphy not having the greatest range there are going to be a lot of balls going up the middle for base hits.”
On a .500 ballclub you may be satisfied with that defense but when you are striving for a playoff spot, a spot you can lose out on in the last game of the season, then it would be prudent to at least have other options to choose from going into the season. Tejada has been a failed option the last two seasons. Miller or Escobar, two affordable players, should at least be brought in to add depth to the position. If Flores should fail, then what?

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- Tyler Slape On December 16, 2014 at 11:34 am
  
  Even though Everth Cabrera has a lot of baggage, I think he would be a nice addition as a backup instead of Tejada. He can play shortstop very well, he may need a little bit of time at second which he has played in the past, but not a lot. He is also a switch hitter, which would be nice to have off the bench. If he is able to put everything that happened behind him then it could be well worth it.
  
  I know that they are not the rule but an exception. The Tigers in 2014 were horrendously bad defensively. The Tigers had two players with a positive UZR, Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera, and two players with a positive DRS, Ian Kinsler and Alex Avila. That team won 90 games. They had great hitting and good pitching and that carried them into the playoffs. Lucas Duda is not going to hit like Miguel Cabrera, but if the Mets are good offensively and the pitching is as strong as it seems then the Mets are a contender in my eyes right now. Would I prefer to have Tulo at shortstop? Yes. But it is a huge risk and ultimately it is up to Alderson and his team to evaluate whether that risk will be worth it or not.
  
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Pete On December 16, 2014 at 11:23 pm

Tyler you need to take off your sunglasses so you can clearly see. The Mets are in contention for what? The World Series? A playoff berth? A wild card? They would be one and done in the wildcard playoff (if they get that far). Too many question marks. Is David Wright going to bounce back from the horrendous season he just posted? Can TDA build on last years improvements on offense? Can he not lead the league in pass balls? The Mets don’t have a knuckle ball pitcher on their staff. Can Lagares stay healthy and play 150+ games to support the pitching staff. Speaking of the pitching staff. Can we ask Santa to give Gee and Niese 1 healthy season where they don’t take a trip to the DL? How long does it take Matt Harvey to return to form? Or will have have inconsistent lapses? Can Colon avoid his one bad outing every 6th starts? Will the front office have the courage to have Montero and Syndergaard start the season in Queens and continue with the youth movement. Can Collins be open to suggestions where it’s a good idea to play the kids so at least the team knows what they have? Other than that Tyler the Mets are still heading in the right direction

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- Tyler Slape On December 17, 2014 at 12:26 am
  
  I am not going to say that the Mets have question marks going into 2015, but so do other teams. The Nationals who are viewed as the top team in the NL East as of right now have question marks too. How will Ryan Zimmerman perform after spending two months on the disabled list last year and moving to a new position? Who is going to play second base for them? Danny Espinosa? He was their second baseman until they traded for Asdrubal Cabrera, who was not that great for the Indians and worse for the Nationals. Can Wilson Ramos stay healthy after having two separate stints on the DL last year? Will Ian Desmond be able to reduce his strikeout rates, which last year was at 28%? Is Anthony Rendon the real deal, or will the league get used to him. Can Bryce Harper stay on the field? Harper played in 100 games last year and 118 in 2013? Can Denard Span’s legs hold out as he he ages? A lot of their pitchers had career years last year can they repeat? Especially Drew Storen who had an ERA of 1.12 last year and an ERA of 4.52 the year before. He is going to be there closer since Soriano is gone. Can he pitch as well as he did last year in the ninth inning?
  
  The Mets are not the only team with question marks. You can pick apart any team during the offseason and there will be things that are questionable, I choose the Nationals because they are in the Mets division. Baseball is a crazy sport and teams that people think are great going into the season do not turn out great and there are teams who do not look good going in but surprise people. The Red Sox and Rays were supposed to be the top two teams in the AL East and neither team made it to the playoffs. The Red Sox won the World Series in 2013 and by the trade deadline most of the rotation from the year before was gone.
  
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Pete On December 17, 2014 at 12:56 am

True the Mets don’t play in a vacuum. I would love to have the Nat’s problems. Harper only played a 100 games and they ran away with the division! The Nat’s have the depth and pitching to repeat. I don’t count The Braves or the Phillies because they appear to be either rebuilding or have an aging line up past their prime. Tyler pitching and defense wins games in the long run. The Mets at SS and second base are barely adequate. Take a look at how the Dodgers upgraded their up the middle defense and cut payroll at the same time. I’m not being pessimistic just realistic because the team is hamstrung with payroll issues and have an outdated manager who doesn’t want to use young players and yet needs them to play well in order to get into the playoffs

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Tyler Slape On December 17, 2014 at 1:51 am

Pitching and defense definitely go a long way, but you still need an offense. The Padres last year had good pitching and good defense and did not make the playoffs. The allowed 577 runs, good for 4th in the MLB and scored 535 runs last in the MLB. Why were they so dead set on trading for Matt Kemp or a big bat? They needed the offense.

The Dodgers did not have a clear cut shortstop after Hanley left and Kendrick is still a productive player offensively. Those deals were not about shedding payroll at all in fact they gained payroll with those two. They have no problem paying a ton of money with them paying all of Dan Haren’s contract plus however much else they pump into the roster.

Who do you think should be the Mets starting shortstop and second baseman in 2015?

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Pete On December 17, 2014 at 2:11 am

It’s the total of the the three transactions Tyler. Friedman pointed that out when speaking to reporters about the Dodgers after the Winter Meetings. He said the team is better after the moves were made. He wasn’t talking about offense. He was talking about defensively up the middle.Just because the Dodgers have money doesn’t mean Friedman is going to run around signing every FA. He values defense. look at the DWAR of the players he brought in. Kendrick is better defender than Dee at second base. Rollins at 36 is an upgrade over Hanley. Don’t be surprised when he trades Wilson and any other remaining bloated veteran contracts from the pen. I would trade for Tulo and move Flores to second base. If the Rockies don’t include cash then they get Murphy. Mejia, and 1 prospect.

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Pete On December 17, 2014 at 2:31 am

I should clarify that the prospect(s) should be top prospects from Las Vegas.

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- Tyler Slape On December 17, 2014 at 2:40 am
  
  They are a better team because they would have had Justin Turner at shortstop and Kendrick is an upgrade defensively and offensively over Dee Gordon that moves makes sense. Friedman just gave ten million to Brett Anderson who has not pitched a full season besides his rookie year in 2009. He has been good in 2014 and 2012, but started 8 games and 6 games, respectively. Looking at Baseball Prospectus the Dodgers current payroll for 2015 is $240 million and that does not include Rollins $11 million or Kenley Jensen, who will get around $8 million. It also includes Matt Kemp, where the Dodgers are giving the Padres $32 million, but spread out. That still leaves the Dodgers payroll somewhere around $250 million.
  
  If I understand the luxury tax right then that means the Dodgers will be paying a 30% tax on the amount that they are over the $189 million limit this year. Which will add another $18 million to there payroll jumping them closer to $270 million. Suffice to say money is a non-issue for the Dodgers.
  
  Mejia was never reported to be in the talks with Colorado and he has not had a fun time in Coors Field in minimal innings. Murphy only has one year left on his contract and the Rockies would not want him unless he signed a very team friendly contract with them. Most teams would want to move him to third base anyway if they could and the Rockies have Arenado manning third. The Mets would have to give up a package centered around Syndergaard that probably also includes Plawecki, and another top prospect and a mid-level prospect and take on most of the guaranteed $114 million contract Tulo has. That is a lot to give up for the glass cannon that is Tulo and a lot of money the Wilpons wouldnot let Alderson spend.
  
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pete On December 17, 2014 at 6:47 am

Removing Kemp’s reported 16 million from their payroll and from Cot’s you have a payroll today at 218 million. What does it say when Friedman and Zaidi decide they rather sign Anderson with all his question marks than take their pick of Gee or Niese? I have to believe that Alderson’s asking price was too high a prospect for their liking. By the way you’re right about the Dodgers and their deep pockets. But I see where Friedman is continuing his purge of eliminating high priced past their prime relievers in DFAing Brian Wilson. It’s not that the Dodgers don’t have deep pockets but the former regime addressed their problems but continually pumping high priced named veterans who were getting big bucks from their past achievements. No more. Dodger payroll will come steadily down and their play on the field will go up. I see Greinke opting out next year so perhaps the Dodgers FO is look for another signing. Again I say Van Slyke should be available in a trade for a SP.

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- Tyler Slape On December 17, 2014 at 10:39 am
  
  His asking price was probably too high. That is a good and bad thing about Alderson. He squeezes every last penny he can out of a team, but then sometimes they say nope and cancel the deal. I have talked about this before, but it was an overpay on the Pirates and Blue Jays part for Byrd and Buck and Dickey. The Dodgers still have to pay Brian Wilson the money he would earn in 2014. I don’t know why Greinke would opt out but it is possible. Van Slyke might be worth more than one of the starting pitchers the Mets were offering and Alderson did not want to pay more for a bench player. Van Slyke looks like a player that would have been nice to have on the bench, and maybe even the lineup. But that power righty bat to get Duda away from first against a tough lefty was filled by Mayberry and Alderson is not going to go get another player for that same role. The Dodgers probably really like Van Slyke and if they can trade either Crawford or Ethier then he will get more time in the outfield.
  
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***Official MLB Offseason Discussion Thread*** On December 23, 2014 at 10:35 pm

[…] Looking at the advanced defensive metrics, Flores is actually one of the better defensive shortstops in the league. A total of 38 players in 2014 started at least 400 innings at shortstop. Of those 38 shortstops Flores ranked sixth in UZR/150, 21st in DRS, and 1st in RZR or how many plays in the zone will the player make. Flores did have significantly less time played than most of the shortstops, so as he would play more the numbers would even out, but his numbers from last year look pretty good. UZR/150 attempts to display how well a player will do over an entire season of playing. There are tiers for determining how well a player is with above 15 being gold glove caliber, above 10 is great, and it keeps going down. Flores ranks above Drew and they played in roughly the same amount of innings. Flores had a UZR/150 of 12.5 and Drew had one of 8.1. He ranks higher than Tulowitzki and Escobar who played roughly twice as much as Flores did at shortstop. https://mets360.com/?p=23950 […]

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