Mets360 Top 50 Prospects: Players 14-11

We’re getting down to the nitty-gritty now as continue on our journey upwards, examining the best prospects in the Mets farm system. These are the last four before we get to the creme of the crop. In case you missed any of the other installments, check them out at: 50-48, 47-45, 44-42, 41-39, 38-36, 35-33, 32-30, 29-27, 26-24, 23-21, 20-18 and 17-15. Next up is:

Cesar Puello – 14
It is very difficult to have an untainted view of Puello considering he was involved in the Biogenesis scandal roughly a year and a half ago. Until that point Puello was the top outfield prospect in the Mets system, and his 2013 numbers in Double-A were a strong indicator of his potential: .326/.403/.547 with 24 stolen bases, 16 home runs and 73 RBI in just 91 games. And therein lies the problem, as Puello had never been quite that good before. In fact over the previous two seasons Puello saw his median .298 average from rookie and low-A ball drop to a much more pedestrian .255 in high-A leagues. His OBP and SLG also dropped and rebounded slightly as he moved up through the system. That’s why 2013 was such a dramatic and welcome change for the then 22-year-old.

Since it was revealed that in some form those 2013 numbers were aided by banned substances, Puello returned in 2014 to prove the naysayers wrong, and received a promotion for his trouble. He played all of this past year in Triple-A where he posted a .252/.355/.393 line with 7 home runs, 59 runs and 13 stolen bases in irregular playing time, highlighted by an 0-28 streak in early June. Immediately after that streak though, Puello started to hit again, and put up a .268/.379/.464 line for the remainder of the season, and hit 6 of his 7 total home runs during that period. It appeared that Puello was not all juice after all.

There are some reasons to believe that Puello’s comeback was for real. That second-half surge was driven by a .331 BABIP, but Puello has kept much higher BABIPs over the course of his minor league career, so it’s duplicatable. Over the past four seasons his K% has dropped steadily from 28.2% in 2012, to 19.4% this past year, and his 8.1% BB rate in 2014 was the highest of his career. It seems as though Puello is finally understanding the kind of player he is. As most guys usually take performance-enhancing drugs in order to get bigger and stronger, that’s probably what Puello was doing. He was never a real home run threat before 2013, only putting up 10 in 117 games in A+ ball two year prior. Now after being found out, it seems he is returning to the kind of hitter he was before; an on-base guy who might hit double-digit home runs with 20+ doubles and speed to compliment his game. Is it enough to still be considered a top prospect in the Mets farm? Those questions will be answered in 2015, as it will be a make-or-break year for him. A solid beginning could see Puello being an early call-up to replace an injured outfielder. But a slip in numbers could mean Puello starts a long slide into anonymity. He may already be taken off the 40-man roster for the newly acquired John Mayberry, Jr. so Puello’s fate is in his hands.

Gabriel Ynoa – 13
Ynoa has been said to be in the same model as Rafael Montero, and that’s a good thing to hear. The slight 6’2” righty has a low-90s fastball and exceptional control, but is still working on his change, curve and slider to offer more defined secondary, off-speed options. It’s in those other pitches which will determine if Ynoa is the kind of pitcher than can live on slightly mediocre stuff, or if he will struggle as he progresses through the system.

2014 was a bit of a down year for Ynoa, which leaves a little worry in some fans minds. The 21-year-old had been in low-A ball for the past two seasons, and started strong in St. Lucie to begin 2014. However, after being promoted to Double-A his K/9 dropped more than one, and his BB/9 went up, as it had with his previous promotion. Also, for the first time in any meaningful length of play his FIP went up past 4.50, well past his previous average. Double-A is often the hurdle most players can’t get past though, so these numbers aren’t so bad when kept in the context that this was his first exposure to that level.

On the plus side, he still walks well under two per nine, and it’s natural that his less than dominant stuff won’t strike out as many in the higher levels. That is why his changeup in particular becomes all the more important, giving him something reliable besides that strong fastball. Ynoa should start off 2015 in Double-A, and if he can refine those secondary offerings, he might get a promotion to Triple-A, but that is only if he really shines. The more likely path is that Mets may start to transition him to the bullpen. He has a lower ceiling than many other hurlers in the Mets farm, but his pinpoint control is something that can play anywhere. As Montero may have to become a long-man to play on the big squad, it’s just that much less likely that Ynoa remains a starter for this organization. If he were to be traded, he could remain a starter, but he still would probably top out at a number four or five in most rotations.

Ynoa is still very young for his level of play, so there’s no rush to transition him out of the rotation just yet. But when you consider that his stuff likely won’t dramatically progress, and that the organization has many young guys right behind him with seemingly better offerings, his role becomes limited. That does not greatly diminished value though. Control is something many guys can’t ever attain. The Mets had a long experiment with Oliver Perez that painfully proven that point time and again. Ynoa is intriguing for that quality, and 2015 will give fans a glimpse of how he will best serve the future.

Akeel Morris – 12
Morris is to many the closer of the future for the Mets. His recent addition to the 40-man roster, despite having never pitched past Savannah, is a clear indication of what the team sees in his abilities. Newsday’s review of the Mets farm perhaps sums Morris up best:

“He allowed an earned run in only two of his 41 appearances. He held batters hitless in 27 appearances and gave up a total of 19 hits. Most amazing? He struck out 89 hitters in 57 innings. Baseball America rated him the best reliever in the South Atlantic League.”

Not much to dislike, right? The 22-year-old righty has been filthy, especially his K/9 which has climbed steadily higher as he’s transition from rotation to bullpen, and has never touched below 10.22/9 in any season. It all comes as a bit of a surprise, as Morris rarely hits mid-90s and only really relies on a looping curveball as his second option, with a few changeups mixed in. What helps is a maximum effort delivery, which seems to hide the ball well behind him, thus making it hard for hitters to pick up the ball. Unfortunately, this effort worries some as it is difficult to repeat, it has caused some problem with walks, and could even lead to injury if not smoothed out a little.

The walks are improving at least. His BB/9 dipped well under four for the first time in his career, resulting in a 3.47/9 in 2014. That’s better than Jenrry Mejia. He also kept hitters to a silly .184 BABIP, so he might not be as lucky all the time. To counter, his FIP has plunged from 5.51 in 2012, to 2.32 in 2013, to 1.90 in 2014. There is room for massive regression in basically all categories though, as he moves to St. Lucie. That is at least understandable since this sort of dominance doesn’t seem likely without a true out-pitch. 2015 will be Morris’ first taste of more advanced hitting, and if he struggles in A+, he may not sniff Binghamton until 2016. Morris is still quite far away, but if he can avoid dropping off the cliff or getting hurt from his aggressive delivery, he could be a surprise call-up next summer if the bullpen needs some temporary help. More likely, it’ll be a few years before we see any Ks from Akeel.

Gavin Cecchini – 11
Cecchini was drafted in the first round in 2012, and many wanted him to pan out like his older brother Garin with the Red Sox. But they are not the same type of player and should not be compared. The shortstop prospect also has the dreaded “first pick” stigma attached to him, meaning everything he does will be subject to the comparison of players who were selected after him. However, after all the excuses are said and done, there is still some reason for fans to complain about his ranking.

Seemingly he’s done nothing to deserve being 11th on our list. He’s never hit above .280 in any season and his OBP leaves much to be desired. As he will only be turning 21 just before Christmas, there is still lots of time for Cecchini to pan out, though. In fact, he has been improving quite well when you examine the stats closer. In ways, 2014 was his best career year as his BB% climbed up to 11.8, well past his previous highs, and his K% has been sitting healthily around 15% for the past two years as well. His atrocious .236 over 68 games of A+ ball in 2014 can be somewhat attributed to a terrible .259 BABIP, which doesn’t seem likely to repeat. His previous BABIPs have hovered around the average .305 range in all previous stops.

Over two leagues in 2014, he collected 10 home runs, scored 78 runs, drove in 56 and stole 10 bases. Those are stats that would have put Ruben Tejada to shame. But the minors are a different beast, and Cecchini has yet to prove his worth above A-ball. He will probably get that chance to showcase his abilities for a full season in Binghamton in 2015, and that will be a big year for the Mets to determine what they have in the young right-handed shortstop. Even if he struggles though, he will only be 22 by next year, so another year at Double-A still wouldn’t hurt. That’s all assuming that he regresses to the level, rather than steps up to it. Cecchini doesn’t have one tool that blows you away, but he packages it all together in a steady player who could fit in well for a team desperately seeking a long-term solution. He’s years away from being that option just yet, but 2015 could play to his advantage. We still may yet have the first rounder we’re hoping for.