For months now, we’ve heard how Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee and Jon Niese have little to no trade value. Colon is too expensive, Gee isn’t good enough and Niese is too much of an injury risk. Yet now that some of the free agent pitchers who aren’t in the top tier have begun to sign, we see how other clubs truly view the pitchers who are no threat to win major pitching awards.
Recently, Brett Anderson, Jason Hammel and Francisco Liriano signed new deals. Let’s take a look at them and compare them to the trio of Mets hurlers mentioned earlier.
Anderson
Pros – Young (turns 27 in Feb.) LHP who throws tons of ground balls
Cons – In six seasons in the majors, has only topped 100 IP twice, the last time in 2010
In the last three years, Anderson has a combined 123 IP. Compare that to Niese, who last year alone threw 187.2 IP and over the last three years has hurled 521 IP. Anderson signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Dodgers. Niese’s deal is for $7 million this year and $9 million in 2016 and has two team options with $0.5 million buyouts.
Hammel
Pros – Strong half season in 2014, has put up a sub .300 BABIP in three of the past four years
Cons – Inconsistent and has never exceeded 178 IP in a single season in the majors
Hammel pitched very well last year in Chicago but fared significantly worse when he was dealt to Oakland. He returns to the Cubs on a 2/$20 deal, which includes a team option for 2017 which would make it a 3/$30 package. Over the last three years, he’s thrown 433.2 IP and has a 3.94 ERA. Meanwhile, Gee has 446 IP and a 3.85 ERA. Hammel bests him in ERA+, 101-93. Gee is estimated to make $5.1 million in arbitration this year and has an additional year of arbitration control.
Liriano
Pros – Lifetime 3.56 xFIP, one year removed from a 16-win season
Cons – Shaky control, has reached 30 starts just once in his career
After resurrecting his career the past two seasons with the Pirates, Liriano re-upped with Pittsburgh on a 3/$39 deal. This came on the heels of a year in which he threw 162.1 innings and posted a 1.6 fWAR. Meanwhile, Colon had 202.1 IP and a 2.1 fWAR and is owed $11 million next year. Liriano has exceeded a 2.1 fWAR just once in the last four years and has never thrown 200 innings in a season, as his career-high is 191.2 IP in 2010. His next highest is last year’s 162.1 total.
Obviously, these three pitchers were available for just money, while the Mets would want some combination of talent back and/or salary relief. There’s a difference there and that difference should not be ignored.
But the idea that what the Mets are offering in trade is not valuable simply does not hold up to scrutiny. All three pitchers that are allegedly on the market for the Mets are fairly priced, given what other pitchers pulled down recently.
Finally, let’s look at one more pitcher. This guy did not sign a new deal but he was involved in a transaction. Over the last three years, this mystery player compiled the following numbers:
558 IP, 4.08 ERA, 101 ERA+, 1.342 WHIP
From 2010-2013, this player’s FIP was better than his ERA. Last year he finally broke the streak with a 3.67 FIP and a 3.43 ERA. Prior to 2014, he posted an ERA over 4.00 in four of his five years in the majors and the one year he did get in the threes, it was just barely, as he posted a 3.96 mark. Let’s put him with one of the Mets pitchers for a comparison:
| IP | ERA | ERA+ | WHIP | K/BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 558 | 4.08 | 101 | 1.342 | 2.98 |
| Player B | 521 | 3.49 | 104 | 1.280 | 2.80 |
Player B is Niese, while Player A is Rick Porcello. The Red Sox allegedly wanted Jacob deGrom or Zack Wheeler from the Mets for Cespedes but were willing to trade Cespedes and two prospects for Porcello. Now, to be fair, Porcello is two years younger than Niese. But while Niese comes with team control for up to four years, Porcello has only 2015 before he becomes a free agent.
The Red Sox are going out of their way to acquire guys who induce ground balls. Porcello has a 52.1 lifetime GB% while Wade Miley has a 48.6 mark and Justin Masterson has the top rate at 56.6%. But it’s not like Niese is a slouch in this regard, with a career 49.1 GB%.
As a fan, it’s frustrating to hear reports that hitting is more valuable than pitching, when the Mets have pitching to deal. Then it’s even more frustrating to see a pitcher marginally more valuable than ones New York is shopping to pull down a big bat and two prospects. It’s hard to make sense of it all. We just have to hope that the new year will bring a change to the trade market and the Mets can improve their team with a deal.
“Then it’s even more frustrating to see a pitcher marginally more valuable than ones New York is shopping to pull down a big bat and two prospects”
Let’s take a look at a comp for this “big bat”
Player A: 155 games .227/.326/.388 20 HRs 105 OPS+
Player B: 152 games .269/.296/.423 22 HRs 110 OPS+
Hint. Player A is a guy some Mets fans would let go if a team assumed his contract.
As you probably guessed, A is Granderson and B is Cespedes.
ISO is the same, but different profile hitters. One doesn’t walk at all but gets more singles The other has a low average but makes it up in walks.
Cespedes is terribly overrated. Aside from a great rookie season, he’s been quite ordinary the past 2 seasons. The trade for Porcello, who may have finally figured it out and probably has much more upside than Cespedes, is fair in my opinion. And the “prospects” is probably an overstatement. One is a bullpen guy and the other is a 19 yr old lottery pick.
I’m glad we didn’t target him.
As for our Met pitchers, there has been healthy interest in Gee and teams have reportedly offered up young and controllable SS for him.
Sandy is probably asking a lot for Niese, and rightfully so as many of us have pointed out that Niese has produced at a low end #2 level the past few years for the Mets. If teams aren’t willing to meet that price, then there’s no point in even discussing trades for him.
Colon offers very little in upside, and with guys Harang, Vogelsong, Hernandez who can provide similar value at a fraction of the price, it’s not surprising there’s no interest in Colon if Sandy’s unwillingly to eat money and asking for a good prospect.
Name,
Your analysis is quite good. Nice thinking.
While as you point out their bats are similar, I’d still rather have Cespedes than Granderson. In addition to being younger, Cespedes held a 3.4 to 1.0 edge in fWAR last year and Steamer projects similar numbers for both in 2015, with Cespedes holding a 3.1 to 1.2 edge.
My point was that Cespedes bat is overrated. The vast majority of their WAR differences lies in defense as Granderson was a horrible fielder last year.
I, too, would rather have Cespedes over Granderson if I had to choose one (without considering contracts) but I wouldn’t have ponied up the pitcher to trade for him even if we hadn’t signed Cuddyer.
FWIW, he was a “bad” clubhouse according to reports in Boston. It’s weird though. You see very little discounting when it comes to “bad” clubhouse guys, but people are willing to justify overpaying a guy when he’s a “good” clubhouse guy.
If Sandy can eat Chris Young’s 2.5 million then I can ‘t see why he can’t do the same for Colon. Colon at 8 million sounds a lot more reasonable and realistic. Just goes to show you how much Alderson over paid. The Mets could then apply that 8 million towards an upgrade at SS.
These guys are all Mid Level without a sacrifice of Talent for their services—and mostly short term deals.
Porcello: that trade is a good indicator for a guy like Wheeler’s Value—then again, Porcello is actually getting paid, so Wheller might fetch more.
None of the Mets SP are long-term requirements, either. And Niese has the added attraction of two team options. If Liriano gets 3/$39, isn’t Niese a bargain at 3/$26.5 or 4/$37?
oh…niese is absolutely a bargain!!! I heavily defend those 550 innings that Guys like Niese, Colon and Gee would provide—in combination, a very good bargain for those innings.
But, again, a signing for a year or two at mid range rate is pretty good when you’re not sending talent away for the pitcher.
I’m not so much in favor of the “dump” of those 3 pitchers that seems so popular throughout Mets Fandom. Some people want these guys gone because they have Prospect Swoon…I understand. However, they should be traded for other needed baseball players…not salary dumps, or “fan boredom”.
Brian if the Mets pitchers are so under valued then why can’t Alderson package them for an upgrade at SS? Maybe Sandy is asking for the moon in return?
As you’ve pointed out, it takes two to tango.
We know that last year, Alderson was offered Didi for Noah Syndergaard, which he rightly declined. And that he offered Niese for Brad Miller and was rejected.
We know this year he turned down Gee for Eduardo Escobar.
I’m sure there were others both years that we don’t know about.
What little we know is that he has both made and received offers and just hasn’t been able to find the right match. Is he asking too much? Maybe. But we know he’s in there punching, which is what we want him to do.
Well from what I hear it’s all about Niese’s shoulder, and the potential it’s long term bad news. His arm slot has dropped year after year, and has his velo. Taken together, he’s a major liability with very little chance of being moved.
This seems like speculation carried to ridiculous degrees.
You have a guy in Brett Anderson who has displayed absolutely no ability to remain healthy and he’s worth $10 million and Niese made 30 starts last year and he’s the one who has giant red flags?!?
When some team requests his medicals and then refuses to deal for him, I’ll believe there’s an issue. Until then, I see the guy who in his last nine starts had a 3.19 ERA and a 4.4 K/BB ratio.
If that’s the case then it has to be that Alderson was asking to high a price for the Dodgers to come to terms for making a deal. And why couldn’t a deal for Gee who’s going to make half as much couldn’t be accomplished? What is Alderson thinking if Colon, Gee and Niese are on the Opening Day roster? Leave Syndergaard and Montero in Las Vegas until the trading deadline if the Mets are out of the play off race? Secure an additional year of control? At some point the team needs to contend otherwise what’s left of their fan base will cease to exist.
Without making any judgment on your first sentence, I always try to keep this in mind:
Sometimes the best move is walking away or doing nothing. If your potential trading partner thinks he has you over a barrel then there’s no reason for him to make a good offer. You can’t be the desperate, needy one. If Alderson has a reputation that he’s not going to give stuff away — I think that’s a good thing.
I think he was absolutely right to turn down Syndergaard for Didi
I wouldn’t have offered more than Niese for Miller
I probably would have taken Escobar for Gee but I have no problem with looking for something better. 2014 could have been a career year for Escobar
We don’t know if he approached the Dodgers – my guess is he did. I just find it hard to believe that he didn’t reach out to every team with a potential SS upgrade. Sometimes you just can’t make a good trade.
Wheeler or DeGroum for 1 year of a guy whom you could not give a qualifying offer to was way to much. In fact the prospect going back to detroit was to make up for the loss of a potential draft pick attached to him. The ROY would have been a non starter for me and to get Wheeler It would of had to be Boragars and Cepasis. Really I can’t criticise what sandy has done except to say I wish he had turned Niece or Gee into Scott Van Slyke over signing Mayberry Jr. Maybe with Rodriguez the lefty reliever thrown in for niece was cent given his contract. But I have no idea if that deal would interest LA over signing Anderson. After looking at Gordan’s Defensive states I must concede my proposed deal from another article posted before Dee got shipped of Gordon and Van Slyke for Noah probably did not work because Dee does not seem comfortable at SS.
Three things:
– Other teams value the talent lost over the money spent because talent is harder to find. Only the Mets throw nickels around they’re manhole covers. This is a billion dollar industry but this team runs it like it’s a mom and pop soda shop. If a team can sign a free agent that may have a half run ERA higher for even a couple million dollars more but keep its prospects, why should they trade them to the Mets?
– It may be that other teams are avoiding having to deal with the Mets’ demands. Last summer we heard that it is difficult to deal with the Mets because they ask for much and offer little. Well, if I’m a GM and I expect to get harassed by the Mets, I wouldn’t make too many calls to them. There are 28 other teams that have players to deal.
– Every team is looking to get a good deal and almost every team doesn’t mind spending money. Remember the cheap A’s signed Cespades before anyone was signing the Cuban players. However, the Mets are perfectly content waiting on their farm to produce and so they keep signing secondary free agents. You get what you pay for: Sign cheap players, get cheap quality. They really are all talk, no action.
they should be looking to package players, but, then you have to give something to get something. Hmmmm….
While recognizing for many teams that talent lost is more important than money, I don’t think it’s as many as your post implies.
Also, there’s a limited supply of MLB-quality pitchers out there. After a 15 or see free agent pitchers are gone, there are none left for just cash. And those 15 that left there previous teams, some of those should have left a void.
I just find it hard to believe that Wade Miley and Rick Porcello have such trade value and that Colon, Gee and Niese do not.
Brian I think it would be fair to say that even though the teams match up well as trading partners it’s what the Other GM wants that sometimes squashes a deal. If teams are hesitant about Niese and his shoulder or Gee’s health then let the Mets keep both. I am curious if SA had approached the Dodgers. Surely the Mets could of provided better proven starters than what Friedman and company just recently signed. If so there must be a reason why a deal wasn’t made during the Winter Meetings. I point my finger at Alderson. If he truly wanted to move Gee, Colon or Niese he doesn’t have to ask for the best prospects in return. The salary dump would of been applied for an upgrade at SS.
I may point my finger at sandy too, but not in a negative light. History has shown Sandy won’t deal till he gets what he wants. Look I wanted Van Slyke but truth be told look at Davis last year Sandy has always held his peaces until he got what he considered good value and it usually works out for some good pieces. He never seems to make a deal when we think he will but he usually does get it done. He may still.
IMO, Gee or Colon could be traded for multiple A-level prospects to bolster the farm, not anyone impacting the immediate future. That’s how the Mets can get the most bang for their buck from these undervalued guys. I wouldn’t give Niese up for anything short of a starting shortstop, and a good one. But as there aren’t any to be had at the moment, it looks like we’ll have a lefty in the rotation.
Tulo has let it be known he wants out of Colorado.
given tulo’s recent injury his money left on his deal and what the Rockies would want back there is no way I make that deal, unless their price comes way down. Niece strait up or with tejada as a through in if they eat most of the money I give them Pewekie or montero but not both. That being the case I don’t see Tulo in NY
I guess its better to be punching than a punching bag. But Brian I truly do not envy the position Alderson is in with Jeff as his boss.
And sometimes team revisit their talks as the off season continues and their team needs becomes more apparent. I think the Mets have finally overcome their financial woes if Alderson is looking to “trade” rather than a salary dump. Payroll is going to be close to 100 million if Colon,Gee and Niese are still here Opening Day.