The latest rumor has the Mets and Rockies talking Troy Tulowitzki. At times this feels like the franchise’s personal Moby Dick. Regardless, the fact that the team is even discussing this possibility is encouraging. Even though the chances of a deal happening are probably only in the single digits, it’s still something that makes me happy as a fan. If Sandy Alderson passed on Eduardo Escobar because he was aiming for Tulowitzki, my reaction is: You go, Alderson!
Anyway, with the full understanding that this deal is overwhelmingly likely not to happen, what would be the best offer you would feel comfortable giving up? Let’s assume that any money the Rockies would include would be minimal.
Mine would be: Noah Syndergaard, Kevin Plawecki and random C-grade (note: not C+) prospect. For sake of argument, let’s call him Victor Cruzado
I agree completely with your proposed Tulo package, Brian. I’m not sold on Syndergaard, and I’m comfortable going all in with d’Arnaud at this point.
I do not agree with Kevin Plawecki and would rather see Montero or Gee be included instead. After a year in AAA he will be worth a lot more next off season and that would give d’ Arnaud another year to establish himself so the Mets know what they have at catcher. Besides Alderson will probably not make that deal. At least it would explain not getting Escobar, Dee Gordon or Gregorius.
I agree, we should send gee, sunder guard, and a double a prospect. Unless the Rockies eat a few million .
Assuming they give no money: Tejada or Fuentes and Niece or Gee the Rocks chose one of each. For the reasons I’ve enumerated in other threads today I honestly.
Now if they include around 30-40 mill: Niece, Montero, Plaweckie and their choice of Tejada or Fuentes but they don’t want to pay so thats a non starter.
Reports indicate rocks starting point is Thor Degroum + other prospects with no money. Colorado can take a flying leap off the rockies and if Sandy dose this he should be fired immediately because the last 4 years were for nothing.
Exactly. These kind of trades if it includes say Syndergaard, Matz + are the ones that haunt you for years if you make a mistake. Not only will you be stuck behind the 8 ball with the player salary, but also stuck because you traded young controllable players.
I for one would not trade for Tulo unless the players going back are 2 from Niese, Gee, Montero, Fartolo and Plawecki (who I think is a mistake to trade).
We have been lied to for so long that I don’t believe anything anymore.
But Syndergaard, Plawecki and please include Tejada as well.
It would take 2 trades in my opinion.
Mets send Syndergaard, Gee or Niese, and Rosario to Colorado (5-8 million in relief, and including Rosario may mean we can keep Plawecki)
Mets send Murphy to San Fran for Clayton Blackburn. (8 million in relief – now we’ve paid for Tulo’s first year).
I agree because the Rockies are looking for pitching. The Mets get salary relief and I also think they would have to follow up with a Murphy trade for prospect(s) in order to afford the deal.
Yeah – maybe SF also sends a pitcher to Colorado and makes a play for Cargo. Colorado gets young controllable pitching high end pitching prospects, plus a potential stud SS in Rosario, SF gets Murphy and Cargo, Mets get Tulo and Blackburn or other high end pitching prospect
Thor, Plawecki, Gee, Flores.
Depending on money, maybe add a minor league arm not named Matz.
All the medicals would have to be positive on the recent hip injury.
Yeah, I was 100% in on Tulo before the hip injury. Now, I’m still enthusiastic but I’d be lying if I said the hip wasn’t a big concern.
the hip + the $ is the biggest reason I’m so negative on any Tulo deal unless its the perfect deal and no deal for me can be perfect if it has Thor leaving. Maybe that makes me a stick in the mud but i just feel like I’ve seen the hole big money to an older injured player before and I don’t want to see it again especially at the rumored hudge cost in prospects.
Guys you got to understand about Tulo.. He be 30 and he has not finished a full season in almost 4 years. Yes he has great talent that the Mets need.. But you are going to trade your prospects that could be successful or a bust.. I don’t think the Rockies are going to give the Mets a lot of money for the trade..
I would pass on Tulo due to his injuries and his contract.. I know it sounds crazy but I rather go for a younger short-stop that has talent. The two we have right now I assume we have to stay till the other young ones come up the following year. I would not trade any prospects for this short-Stop.. Omar is gone and we don’t need to follow his route with trading all our farm system for over prices players…
Agree 100% with John. I would prefer Profar for a package of Wheeler and Maybe a low prospect at most (Boyd).
If the Rockies wan to trade: Cecchinni/Tejada/Reynolds, Gee/Niese, Familia/Mejia and Colon, and we pay the contract. Otherwise, they can keep Tulo and pay him for 110 games a year. This guy make Nomar Garciaparra look good. Remember Nomar after he hit 30 and was traded to the Cubs? LOL
Aha Gus! i see your swapping salary for salary in the trade. What if the Rockies asked for Syndergaard instead of taking on Colon’s 11 million dollar albatross contract? Reynolds or Cecchinni, Gee, Mejia and Plawecki? Too much?
Understandable that many folks balk when they look at Tulo’s injury past. One must also recognize that his production in an injury shortened season is still better than every ss in baseball. Also, even with his injury shortened seasons, his contract is still attractive. 6 years 119 million or thereabouts. Sandoval just signed a 5 year deal at around 100!
For instance, Tulo’s production in 91 games was about the same as Peralta for 157. It’s hard to wrap your head around. Ya gotta realize, if he played 150 games per year, Tulo would not be on the block (if he even is)
Over the next 6 years, chances are he will miss time because of injury, but who cares if he is still the best ss in baseball. Tulo for 80 games + Tejada for the rest still = most production from SS in baseball.
the trouble with the Mets is when you start saying who cares about injury you get Mo Vaughn only this time without insurance and at the coast of several top flight prospects
Very good point. His numbers were stupid good last year.
No trade Please. Too much youth going in the wrong direction for us to get a injury ? history player. The risk is to great and at a very big cost of players. I would rather hold on to our top prospects and continue building from within.
The Mets have d’Arnaud at catcher and they have a stock of pitching coming up. They are going to have to move players eventually. Tulo is definitely a risk, but shortstop is currently pretty weak for the Mets. Gavin Cecchini is going to be in Double-A and he has not hit well at any level so far, so if he blossoms then it will still be at least 2-3 years until he is ready. Amed Rosario is just the same as Cecchini except he is probably about 4 years away. Matt Reynolds could start, but he is more likely a backup infielder.
If the Mets are going to make a trade it should be for a shortstop, and the prime candidates that are big names are Castro, Tulo, Andrus, or Alexei Ramirez and none of those guys are going to come cheap and without any risks. I like Flores a lot and think he should be given his opportunity, but if the price is right for Tulo then it is worth it.
I think the point of those of us opposed to the trade is the price at least for myself is no where near right.
Yeah, I’m in the don’t trade camp too. I just can’t get behind an injury-plagued player with a huge contract who’s already 30. Make other moves, even if they’re not as flashy, and hold onto more of the youth until the right deal presents itself.
I’d offer, Niese, Montero, Mazzoni, Meija, Whalen, Colon and Rosario. If they want pitching, they can have pitching.
fair point – if they want pitching, fine. We have plenty. But They only get one from Syndergaard, Matz, and Wheeler. DeGrom and Harvey are untouchbable – they are the keys to the dominant rotation, while the other three can be replaced by one of the remaining two (ie. Matz and Wheeler = Wheeler and Syndergaard or Matz and Syndergaard. One is expendable as long as Jake and Matt remain. I’d trade almost any 3 minor leaguers in addition to Noah, Matz, or Wheeler. Most reluctant to trade Conforto and Herrera as far as position players go, but if it gets us Tulo, I might be willing to part with Herrera and move Wilmer to 2b.
Colon pitching half his starts in Coors Field? He’d give up 30 home runs. I don’t think the Rockies would even consider him even if SA ate half his salary. The fact that Gee’s name has come up more frequently in trade talks should tell you how other GM’s feel about Niese. Surely Alderson could and should have made a deal with the Dodgers instead of seeing them sign Brett Anderson for 10 million dollars. The Rockies would probably ask for a bat besides the pitching. Tulo is the face of their franchise. So if they’re not inclined to help the Mets with any potion of his salary then a 3 for 1 deal should be equitable to both teams and allow Colorado to vastly improve their starting rotation and build for the future as well.
I was wondering if the Rockies would ask for Flores or the Mets top prospect at SS instead of a C+ prospect to replace Tulo at SS? At that point would you still make the trade? I would.
Syndergaard, Plawecki and a C grade prospect are not even in the 2015 plans. The Mets have a surplus of pitching, a young starting catcher and an abundance of C prospects. Trading for Tulo would increase the Mets playoff chances from 2015 to 2020 and solidify their current weakest position. The Mets have a strong minor league system and could absorb the loss. The Mets may not be able to afford Tulo’s contract so they may need to substitute Niese for Plawecki (Rockies need pitching) and trade Murphy to another team for prospects. Tulo is a game changer and would let the Mets compete with the Nats for the division instead of just a playoff spot. Syndergaard, Niese and any two C prospects would not be too much for me.
I think that the teams could agree on a player swap. The big hurdle is the money involved in Tulo’s contract. Even if you are in the camp that thinks his contract is in sync with his talent the fact remains that the Wilpons won’t spend that kind of money. And I don’t see Colorado willing to eat enough money to make it palatable for the Mets owners.
Let’s move on.
I agree especially since several reports say its not happening and other than John Heyman no one seems to think they are actively talking this thing ain’t happening
The Mets have a surplus of young arms ready to fill in at the major league level. Between Colon, Niese, and Gee (3,4 and 5) you will have 24 million for 3 starters that can be replaced at a lower cost. Pick Colon and or Niese and Gee and you can afford Tulo.
but can 24 mil in one year make up for 118 over 6? especially since the guy in question is injured every year and on the wrong side of 30. Maybe I’m stubborn but I don’t think he is. As for the young pitchers you’re probably going to have to surrender 2 of them for Tulo. Another reason this is not going to happen. AS for Calon, Nice and Gee. you will move one of them probably Gee for minore league depth or a player to help this year. Calon will start the year with the mets but he’ll be gone by next year if not before creating the permanent roster spot for thor if you don’t waist him on tulo.
Who’s going to take Colon and his full contract at this point?
But you don’t have to invest money in the starting rotation. Look at Cot’s and you’ll see that the Mets will have a 48 million dollar payroll for 2015 (minus Niese). Add 20 million for Tulo and you’re at 68-69 million, So I do believe the team can afford his contract. The Mets will start to win at home again consistently and more importantly attendance will go up in Citifeld.
ok there are several flaws in your logic. Cot’s dose not yet include any of the players due arbitration this year in your 48mill the list of players whose salary number on Cots is blank is huge they include: Murphy, Parnell, Gee, Duda, Tejada, Toras, Harvey, Wheeler, Mejje, Legarus, Recker, Familam D’Arnaud, Black, Campbell, DeGroum, Edgin, and Nieuwenhuis. This is because the league minimum fluctuates slightly from year to year so even players who don’t have arbitration eligibility don’t have an exact $ amount yet and when Cot’s figures salary commitment there counting guaranteed cash. The don’t estimate. Best estimates put the Mets salary around 98 mill. As minimums and arbitration awards rise over the next 6 years you will have several players $ go up. That is the financial reality you must measure a 30 year old SS making 118 mill with a bad hip against acquiring. Given the risk and what that contract may prevent you from doing its just not worth the potential especially when you throw the coast of 4 young players at least 2 of which are said to be major league ready.
Put another way to make it simpler Cot’s 64 mill is made up of only 6 players they are:
Wright= 20 mill
Granderson=16 mill
Calon= 11 mill
Cuddyer= 8.5 mill
Niece= 7.05 mill
Mayberry Jr.= 1.45 Mill
You still have to pay 18 others + Tulo if you get him
First let’s address your numbers.League minimum is going to be 507,000. So how many players are there for tat amount and say over that amount for adjustments? By moving Colon and Gee or Niese that saves the team 16 million.Approximate numbers for arbitration hearings. Information from mlbtraderumors
Gee – 5.1 million
Murphy – 8.3 million
Parnell – 3.8 million
Tejada – 1.7 million
Duda – 4.3 million
Mejia – 3.1 million
So we can say about 26 million being added. Players such as Harvey. Recker and the others you mentioned will get incremental nominal raises So adding 6.5 to 8 million does bring your payroll for 2015 to the 98-100 million dollar range, That’s why the Mets if they still have financial issues would need to trade some salary (Colon + Niese or Gee) to make room for Tulo this year. The following year I do not see Murphy being here and if the Mets are not in the playoff race this coming season then Murphy will be dealt by the trading deadline. The Mets are not going to extend or sign Murphy as a FA because they will have cheaper options who are better defensively at second base in 2015
I agree Murph will be gone by next year may point still holds because:
1) The mets are not going to move all three of Calon, Niece, and Gee because in order to do that they would have to promote Montero and one of either Thor or Martz to fill out the rotation at the start of the season.
2) The Mets are not going to do that with either young arm because they don’t want to start their arbitration clocks early.
3) They have a plan for Thor. They want him to come up and take Harvey’s spot in the rotation mid season when they rest Matt to keep him useful in September while on an innings count.
4) Every report indicates at least one if not two of the younger arms is required for the Rockies to ship Tulo.
5) All of that presupposes the wilpon’s would even be willing to take on 118 million for a SS. Which even if you find the room in the budget they won’t because they know over the next 6 years you are going to have to resign a lot of your good young talent. Duda, Harvey, Wheeler, DeGroum, and D’Arnaud all enter free agency over the length of Tulo’s deal.
6) And the biggest reason not to trade for Tulo: He is a 30 year old shortstop that has only played 150 games 2 times in his career.
7) He has a Hip injury that required surgery this offseason and has not even started baseball activity so in addition to hoping for bounce back years from Wright and Granderson you’d be counting on a player who’s never healthy to get healthy after surrendering a huge chunk of talent and money for the privilege of hoping he stays on the field.
While I’d be open to a reasonable trade because sometimes you take a gamble I think this is a horrible Idea and most reports indicate it won’t happen the above are the reasons why.
You can’t keep looking down the road. The Royals were on a similar path and their GM decide to take a chance and it got them within 1 win of a World Series. the Mets are not going to re-sign Harvey (Scot Boras despises the Wilpons). Every year is a gamble. Injuries, poor play etc. Eventually your expectation has to be to win a World Series. So there are many moving parts. the Mets need that Keith Hernandez trade to put them over the hump and into serious World Series contention while they have these young starters that need the offense to go along with it before time runs out and as you say the salaries start to escalate. Colon and Niese Or Gee comes out to 16 million+ at the very least. That’s one reason why Alderson’s second year for Colon at 11 million was a calculated gamble that is handicapping him now. Colon Niese or Gee don’t necessarrily have to go to Colorado. Mejia, Thor and Plawecki could be a package deal.
No I agree you have to take risk at some point i disagree Tulos the chance to take talking about the Calon gamble blowing up in Aldersons face I don’t think it has yet. Following his plan Calon starts the year in the rotation Thor comes up to replace Matt then when Matt comes back you trade Calon who will be owed much less for a peace you need at the all star break or dead line and once Thor is here he stays for good. If you gamble on Tulo and loss that move can hamstring you for 6 or 7 years not the 1 calon can do.
Everyone who wants tulo brings up hernandez or Carter. If i believed Tulo was this generations Hernandez or Carter I’d be right there with ya all. I however feel he is much more likely to be this generations Mo Vaughn only with no insurance and a higher cost in talent. To me the rumored deals would be like trading Reyes for Vaughn. if it were Thor for tulo I’d view that as Ryan for Fregosi all over again.
JC what if Thor were not to be included in a deal? Mejia, Plawecki and ? Colon is not part of the future. He is a part that should bring the next player that the team needs now to continue on its path of rebuilding. Just a side note. The Padres got Kemp for 15 million. Why couldn’t the Mets have done the same?
let me answer your side note first then I’ll get to the broader point, Every report has said SD “wants” or “insist” Mets take all the $$ thats why I’m assuming we would have to.
That leads into the broader question and I have said i am open to a reasonable trade if the Rocks continue to insist on all the $$ I’d send there choice of Niece or Gee and Tejada. But if they would send between 30-40mill to the mets wither in a chunk or over the life of the deal (4-6 mill a year) I’d send their choice of Niece or Gee, Plawecki, Montero, and their choice of Tejada or Fuentes. I add the SS choice because its said a SS would have to come back in the deal and I don’t want to give Reynolds.
Now why i don’t include Calon is because I believe his value will be highest at the All star break and in a your need for my need type of swap in a pennant race I believe he can bring back more. More importantly Colorado has shown no interest in him as being a fly ball pitcher he’ll get killed in denver and the mets have shown little openness to moving him I think thats because of his role in the Thor plan I mentioned above.